Sasha Frere-Jones at The New Yorker had a great slagging of this, um, release. He closed with this:
Don’t shove your music into people’s homes. A U2 album that some would have taken seriously was instead turned into an album that seems as pointless as it probably is. Lack of consent is not the future.
The Replacements on Fallon doing "Alex Chilton"
httpv://youtu.be/gZi-dw03fE8
I'm so mad I have the Texas Cup this weekend. One day passes to ACL are still available for Sunday when they play. I should see who else is playing that day and see if I can justify $90.
Who the hell schedules Spoon and The Replacements at the same time? They're the only other band I want to see on Sunday. Pearl Jam can go bugger off. I wouldn't mind seeing Phantogram or Chromeo again, but I just saw them at SXSW and would not get a good spot for the Mats/miss the first big chunk of their set, respectively, as they sandwich the Replacements schedule-wise.
Courtesy of Trueblood:
Twins have a chance to score exactly four runs in a game more times than any team since at least 1950. They're at 34 after last night. Record is 35. They're tied with the Tigers and Angels for the fewest times being held to three runs or fewer in the AL, 56 total games. The Tigers and Angels have better offenses, but only in that they're more explosive. The Twins give themselves a chance to win as often as either of the others.
He needs to publish that.
With the pitchers that the front office gives us, the Twins give themselves a chance to lose more often than either of the others.
their run distribution is kind of interesting. Look at that big lump at 4 runs. Otherwise, they are about as likely to score 1-3 runs as they are to score 5-6 runs in a game. On the other side of the fence, they seem roughly likely to allow any number between 1 and 6 runs in a game (which has happened 100 times).
In the 107 games in which they've scored 1-6 runs, they have gone 39-68, with a winning record only in the games they've scored 6. In the 100 games in which they've allowed 1-6 runs, they've gone 52-48, with a losing record only when they've allowed 5-6.
Interesting. I've never looked at those tables before. I thought I saw something and I'd like to share it.
This is Pythagorean (using MLB.com's 1.82 power) winning percentage by inning for the last five seasons. I think the reason that this season feels different is that the Twins are playing better ball at the end of games, rather than at the beginning and then losing that lead (like in 2011), or giving it up early and not playing well enough in later games where a comeback is possible (2013). There's still promise and hope that early defecits aren't insurmountable.
Inning
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1
.699
.619
.346
.247
.493
2
.417
.350
.323
.409
.407
3
.573
.273
.357
.420
.455
4
.577
.371
.387
.329
.398
5
.460
.407
.554
.321
.321
6
.585
.266
.441
.347
.360
7
.695
.494
.529
.472
.506
8
.500
.296
.411
.512
.573
9+
.597
.333
.468
.491
.628
Actual
.580
.389
.407
.407
.431
Too bad 2011-2013 crushed my spirit so.
And those middle innings are still such a slog.
This season feels better because they should be better. Twins have four fewer wins than their pythag says they should. Last year, they had three more wins than their pythag.
The e-mail contained further speculation that next year's Twins could look somewhat similar to this year's Angels, in that their pitching is shaky, but it doesn't matter because they hit. He conditions that on some offensive players keeping up what they did this year (Plouffe), returning to form (Mauer) and coming up and contributing (Sano).
If we hadn't had a month of COLABELLO! there's no telling how down this year's team would have been.
Considering his WAR was -1.1., one might suggest if we hadn't had 59 games of Colabello there's no telling how up this year's team would have been.
Or maybe there is. Probably about 1.1 win up.
I don't think it plays that way. If you look at his April, if he hadn't had the month that he did, we would have been giving up hope on this season a whole lot sooner, and he wouldn't have had the opportunity to turn his WAR negative. His OPS+ was 133 before May.
Then again, maybe not giving up on the season sooner kept the Twins from getting value in the trade market.
That never happens!
A little late chiming in, but trade deadline market value isn't what it used to be before 10 teams made the postseason, so there's that to consider.
the A's might be a better model/comp. Twins are second to the A's in the AL in walk rate and have almost identical team OBP and SLG. But the A's patience at the plate translates into a low K rate and higher ISO. Also, the A's play defense. The Twins seem to regard defense as optional. It's the Little Things™.
The A's pitchers also strike out an extra batter per nine innings and have the same walk rate. The Twins are, again, the only team with fewer than 1000 strikeouts (the Rangers are at exactly 1000). At least they are projected to surpass 1000 by the end of the year.
Thank you, Phil Hughes!
yeah, no kidding
I know everyone always makes fun of "quality start" but I don't think it is totally worthless. I'd rather have a guy give up 3 runs over 6 innings for 2 starts and then 9 runs over 6 innings in the 4th start than consistently give up 5 runs per six innings each outing. I know this is a ridiculous example but I just think there has been too little attention on the standard deviation of pitching performances. Bad pitchers (high ERA/FIP) with a high standard deviation are worth more than an equally bad pitcher (high ERA/FIP) with a low standard deviation.
There has been some studies on that but it's so hard to predict what kind of pitcher you have.
It's a 1960s Neil Young kind of morning here.
I'd ask for an explanation, but your description is bemusingly complete.
Sounds like a good morning to me.
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHgyNrCF-QA
Peter Sellars! This place is great.
Mein Führer, I can walk!
Gentlemen! You can't fight in here. This is the War Room!
Trevor Mays' current FIP is slightly better than Kyle Gibson's was last year.
So is Gibson's!
Gibson's is a lot better than last year's. His 3.70 FIP is better than the AL average.
I know -- I forgot to include the understatement hashtag
Amanda Kessel won't play this season due to lingering concussion symptoms. I believe women's hockey is more restrictive about checking and hitting and certainly doesn't have the fighting. I get the feeling that we're seeing just the tip of the iceberg as far as the damage that hockey and football are doing to the brains of athletes.
Watching my first FIBA action today. Similar to the Wolves, Spain's offense looks completely different when Rubio is on the court. I really hope the waling and gnashing of teeth over his shooting issues stops this year.
Anyway, as annoyed as I am with the French right now, I wouldn't mind Ricky's injury risk being over.
the wailing and gnashing of teeth over his shooting issues will stop when the Wolves find (a) finishers and (b) players who can create their own shots in the half court late in quarters. RICKY! is RICKY!
Vorped tells me that RICKY! shot only 50.8 percent on 262 layup attempts last season. In comparison, Damian Lillard shot 53 pct on layups. Chris Paul shot 69.7 pct on layups. Goran Dragic shot 69.8 pct on layups. John Wall shot 63.5 pct on layups. Steph Curry shot 65.2 pct on layups. And so forth.
If RICKY! had shot 60 percent on those layup attempts, he would have made an extra 24 FGs on the year, raising his overall FG pct to 41.6.
Make layups, profit.
Twins rained out in Cleveland. True doubleheader starting tomorrow morning.
Bummer. Good part is I'm busy all night tonight and wouldn't have been able to listen/watch anyway.
I would not be at all surprised to see a Hobby Lobby defense in this case. Not because I think it would be a winning legal argument, but because I believe some enterprising firm will be able to convince Wilpon that it is. A fool and his money, after all. But I'm old and cynical and that colors my perception.
Praying their prospects turn out makes them a faith-based business?
Well, that Johan Santana contract was certainly a faith-based business deal.
No Twins tonight? Well, ESPN has Royals-Tigers. Pretty good replacement.
D'oh, weather delay there too. I've got PHI-PIT.
PHI-PIT
Me Phi Me's pet bulldog?
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8UpN979GUI
Dang, should have saved that for my Guest DJ week.
Awww, Richard Kiel dead at 74. RIP, "Jaws"
who can forget the touching love story in Moonraker????
But does it have U2?
U2 is the new market inefficiency.
Sasha Frere-Jones at The New Yorker had a great slagging of this, um, release. He closed with this:
The Replacements on Fallon doing "Alex Chilton"
httpv://youtu.be/gZi-dw03fE8
I'm so mad I have the Texas Cup this weekend. One day passes to ACL are still available for Sunday when they play. I should see who else is playing that day and see if I can justify $90.
Who the hell schedules Spoon and The Replacements at the same time? They're the only other band I want to see on Sunday. Pearl Jam can go bugger off. I wouldn't mind seeing Phantogram or Chromeo again, but I just saw them at SXSW and would not get a good spot for the Mats/miss the first big chunk of their set, respectively, as they sandwich the Replacements schedule-wise.
Courtesy of Trueblood:
Twins have a chance to score exactly four runs in a game more times than any team since at least 1950. They're at 34 after last night. Record is 35. They're tied with the Tigers and Angels for the fewest times being held to three runs or fewer in the AL, 56 total games. The Tigers and Angels have better offenses, but only in that they're more explosive. The Twins give themselves a chance to win as often as either of the others.
He needs to publish that.
With the pitchers that the front office gives us, the Twins give themselves a chance to lose more often than either of the others.
their run distribution is kind of interesting. Look at that big lump at 4 runs. Otherwise, they are about as likely to score 1-3 runs as they are to score 5-6 runs in a game. On the other side of the fence, they seem roughly likely to allow any number between 1 and 6 runs in a game (which has happened 100 times).
In the 107 games in which they've scored 1-6 runs, they have gone 39-68, with a winning record only in the games they've scored 6. In the 100 games in which they've allowed 1-6 runs, they've gone 52-48, with a losing record only when they've allowed 5-6.
Interesting. I've never looked at those tables before. I thought I saw something and I'd like to share it.
This is Pythagorean (using MLB.com's 1.82 power) winning percentage by inning for the last five seasons. I think the reason that this season feels different is that the Twins are playing better ball at the end of games, rather than at the beginning and then losing that lead (like in 2011), or giving it up early and not playing well enough in later games where a comeback is possible (2013). There's still promise and hope that early defecits aren't insurmountable.
Too bad 2011-2013 crushed my spirit so.
And those middle innings are still such a slog.
This season feels better because they should be better. Twins have four fewer wins than their pythag says they should. Last year, they had three more wins than their pythag.
The e-mail contained further speculation that next year's Twins could look somewhat similar to this year's Angels, in that their pitching is shaky, but it doesn't matter because they hit. He conditions that on some offensive players keeping up what they did this year (Plouffe), returning to form (Mauer) and coming up and contributing (Sano).
If we hadn't had a month of COLABELLO! there's no telling how down this year's team would have been.
Considering his WAR was -1.1., one might suggest if we hadn't had 59 games of Colabello there's no telling how up this year's team would have been.
Or maybe there is. Probably about 1.1 win up.
I don't think it plays that way. If you look at his April, if he hadn't had the month that he did, we would have been giving up hope on this season a whole lot sooner, and he wouldn't have had the opportunity to turn his WAR negative. His OPS+ was 133 before May.
Then again, maybe not giving up on the season sooner kept the Twins from getting value in the trade market.
That never happens!
A little late chiming in, but trade deadline market value isn't what it used to be before 10 teams made the postseason, so there's that to consider.
the A's might be a better model/comp. Twins are second to the A's in the AL in walk rate and have almost identical team OBP and SLG. But the A's patience at the plate translates into a low K rate and higher ISO. Also, the A's play defense. The Twins seem to regard defense as optional. It's the Little Things™.
The A's pitchers also strike out an extra batter per nine innings and have the same walk rate. The Twins are, again, the only team with fewer than 1000 strikeouts (the Rangers are at exactly 1000). At least they are projected to surpass 1000 by the end of the year.
Thank you, Phil Hughes!
yeah, no kidding
I know everyone always makes fun of "quality start" but I don't think it is totally worthless. I'd rather have a guy give up 3 runs over 6 innings for 2 starts and then 9 runs over 6 innings in the 4th start than consistently give up 5 runs per six innings each outing. I know this is a ridiculous example but I just think there has been too little attention on the standard deviation of pitching performances. Bad pitchers (high ERA/FIP) with a high standard deviation are worth more than an equally bad pitcher (high ERA/FIP) with a low standard deviation.
There has been some studies on that but it's so hard to predict what kind of pitcher you have.
It's a 1960s Neil Young kind of morning here.
I'd ask for an explanation, but your description is bemusingly complete.
Sounds like a good morning to me.
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHgyNrCF-QA
Peter Sellars! This place is great.
Mein Führer, I can walk!
Gentlemen! You can't fight in here. This is the War Room!
Trevor Mays' current FIP is slightly better than Kyle Gibson's was last year.
So is Gibson's!
Gibson's is a lot better than last year's. His 3.70 FIP is better than the AL average.
I know -- I forgot to include the understatement hashtag
Amanda Kessel won't play this season due to lingering concussion symptoms. I believe women's hockey is more restrictive about checking and hitting and certainly doesn't have the fighting. I get the feeling that we're seeing just the tip of the iceberg as far as the damage that hockey and football are doing to the brains of athletes.
Watching my first FIBA action today. Similar to the Wolves, Spain's offense looks completely different when Rubio is on the court. I really hope the waling and gnashing of teeth over his shooting issues stops this year.
Anyway, as annoyed as I am with the French right now, I wouldn't mind Ricky's injury risk being over.
the wailing and gnashing of teeth over his shooting issues will stop when the Wolves find (a) finishers and (b) players who can create their own shots in the half court late in quarters. RICKY! is RICKY!
Vorped tells me that RICKY! shot only 50.8 percent on 262 layup attempts last season. In comparison, Damian Lillard shot 53 pct on layups. Chris Paul shot 69.7 pct on layups. Goran Dragic shot 69.8 pct on layups. John Wall shot 63.5 pct on layups. Steph Curry shot 65.2 pct on layups. And so forth.
If RICKY! had shot 60 percent on those layup attempts, he would have made an extra 24 FGs on the year, raising his overall FG pct to 41.6.
Make layups, profit.
Twins rained out in Cleveland. True doubleheader starting tomorrow morning.
Bummer. Good part is I'm busy all night tonight and wouldn't have been able to listen/watch anyway.
Not looking good for Goodell.
Not a whole lot of looking good coming out of this whole thing.
Billable hours are looking good for a lot of PR and law firms, but that's not really a bright side.
Heh. I'd award this a point or two if I had admitting privileges.
I liked this more when I read "point" as "pint."
Yup, it's going to be a good month.
I would not be at all surprised to see a Hobby Lobby defense in this case. Not because I think it would be a winning legal argument, but because I believe some enterprising firm will be able to convince Wilpon that it is. A fool and his money, after all. But I'm old and cynical and that colors my perception.
Praying their prospects turn out makes them a faith-based business?
Well, that Johan Santana contract was certainly a faith-based business deal.
No Twins tonight? Well, ESPN has Royals-Tigers. Pretty good replacement.
D'oh, weather delay there too. I've got PHI-PIT.
PHI-PIT
Me Phi Me's pet bulldog?
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8UpN979GUI
Dang, should have saved that for my Guest DJ week.
Awww, Richard Kiel dead at 74. RIP, "Jaws"
who can forget the touching love story in Moonraker????