ok it was a Mauer home run but it was pretty cool!
42 thoughts on “Game 44 in progress”
Why even have third base coaches if runners are going to ignore them.
Glynn sent Plouffe.* I'm sitting just above the Royals dugout.
*if that's not what you're talking about, just ignore me
I think I half heard Bremer. Glynn put up a late stop sign.
If he did, it was so late that even I missed it. He was still waving in Plouffe as Orlando was making his throw.
More apt question, "Why have third base coaches if they're inept?"
Actual quote to Sheenie after Suzuki's single:
Hooray, now we get to see a terrible bunt.
Twins sac success rate has to be much inferior to the rest of the league
The guy behind is ripping on Mauer (who homered twenty minutes ago) for not having enough RBIs.
Teh stoopid, it burns!
Joe's batting line with RISP this season (43 PA, 29 ABs) : .276/.488/.345/.833
That including his league high 5 IBB's. Kind of hard to hit em in when they are giving you a free pass.
How can someone with his K and walk rates struggle as much as Nolasco?
He allows some hard contact, but also gets harmed by this atrocious defense. (Plouffe's "attempt" at Escobar's double, for example.)
I wonder if his rates with runners on is much worse than league average. The story with him is similar to Javier Vazquez: good/great FIP but middling ERA.
And Nunez's range there.
Nolasco ends today with a .727 BABIP against. (.615 including the sacrifice flies)
It's been that way his whole career, so you can't blame bad defense unless he has been really, really unlucky in that department. He's just an odd pitcher because he throws so many offspeed pitches. It's like he's constantly pitching backwards, always starting with the breaking ball to set up the fastball. I don't think he throws his fastball enough to have good control of it and if you throw enough breaking balls, you're eventually going to hang them and/or MLB hitters will sit on the get-me-over first-pitch curve and crush it. Ricky has been bad with the Twins but it's made even worse because it's no fun to watch him pitch because it seems like he's constantly trying to trick batters or nibbling at the plate instead of attacking them. Also, for his career, his numbers against with runners on base are much worse than no one on base.
Nolasco also seems to have the "one bad inning" a lot. That would tie into his numbers being worse with men on, as I think about it. Maybe something happens when he goes from the stretch, or maybe he's marginal enough that if one little thing gets out of whack he becomes very easy to hit.
I've had Ricky on my fantasy baseball teams a lot early in his career due to this. I kept waiting for his ERA to revert to his FIP and it never happened.
Interesting. His LD% is not bad--he's roughly 70th percentile (with 99th percentile being the lowest LD%). Sometimes GB pitchers have a worse BABIP, since it's easier to catch fly balls than it is to field grounders, but he's basically middle of the pack in GB%. He's somewhat a flyball pitcher, 70th percentile (with 99th percentile being the highest FB%). His IFFB% is pretty low, though, he's about 25th percentile there (with 99th percentile being the highest IFFB%.
His BABIP has been bad, he's just 13th percentile there (with 99th percentile being the lowest BABIP).
I did a quick regression model where I modeled BABIP based on GB%, LD%, FB%, and Hard%, and Nolasco still looks like an outlier there--based on his batted ball stats, you'd expect his BABIP to be better. So either it's transient, it's defense (he's only played for two different teams, and I can't remember the last time the Twins had a really good defense), or it's something outside the scope of the batted ball stats.
I would generally consider this list to be the top candidates for BABIP regression, but if the difference persists season-to-season, it's probably something else.
I hope this game is not rained out so Joe Mauer keeps his home run .
First one of his I've seen live, so I'm with you.
The lower decks are really clearing out as people seek shelter, though.
Good thing they got those three pitches in.
Vin Scully talking about a dancing two year-old is quality rain delay entertainment.
I was legitimately disappointed we didn't get to see the rest of that show.
As was I. How about the guy who filmed himself catching two homeruns!
Yeah, that was the highlight.
Game on! (game on!)
thanks for the cover, DW.
How 'bout that start Shannon Stewart Robbie Grossman is having with the Twins?
This game is going to end at 2am
DANNY SANTANA!!!!!! wow what a catch!!!
Rats, he trapped it.
Most random jersey/shirsey tonight:
Tie, between R.A. Dickey (as a Twin) and Chien-Mien Wang (as a Royal)
How bad do you have to play a ball for Sal Perez to get a leadoff triple?
How many games you think he sits after that...
I don't know. It looked bad but shouldn't cutoff man be running out deep to the outfield ready for the possibility of a long bounce, especially have that tricky RF in their home ballpark. I'm thinking Sano was expecting more help on that and Nunez wasn't there. Sano should have turned it on after seeing no one there, but I might find it hard to hustle when I see no one else is.
On a ball hit to right, the 2nd baseman should absolutely be trailing the ball, especially since there was no one on base at the time. Second base becomes the shortstop's responsibility.
“I think maybe he assumed that either [Eduardo] Nunez or Danny were going to be in a better position to recover after he got himself too close to the wall to make the catch,” Molitor said. “But yeah, you want him to go for the ball, even if he thinks someone else might be there to help you out. Sometimes you get caught assuming out there and it doesn’t look too good.”
The ball took a huge bounce toward the infield and it was Danny Santana retrieving it. Where were the infielders? That's a question no one seems to be asking.
I think some of the responsibility should go to the people who spent all winter and spring telling us that Sano was going to be just fine in right field and it wouldn't be a problem.
Why blame Baghdad Bob?
Actually, UZR has Sano below average but not by much (-4.0 on the season and -8.9/150). He's ranked ahead of JD Martinez, Jay Bruce, Nick Markakis and even Curtis Granderson, who used to be a pretty good CF. Torii Hunter was about average in RF last year, but his final year with the Tigers he was -20/150. UZR says Sano hasn't been great but I would be happy if I was told at the beginning of the season that this is where he'd end up . Just remember, Plouffe was not a good third baseman his first season and has become at least average.
My point is that Twins management has no right to complain about poor defense when they make the deliberate decision to use below-average defensive players.
I think for the most part Molitor was defending Sano from criticism other than saying he still needs to work on approaching the wall (after noting that Sano is daily working on just that). But I think you're right that Molitor doesn't need to get specific and should just emphasize that this is a process and they knew it wasn't always going to be pretty. The real problem is having an infielder playing center every day and mixing in a lot of Arcia (at least until recently) in LF. That combination is a train wreck just waiting to happen. The Sano experiment was supposed to be offset by Buxton in CF and Rosario in LF. Hopefully, it wont' be too long before Buxton and Kepler are up.
Nothing like grounding into double plays in 3 consecutive innings to get a rally started.
Twins pitchers have 9 Ks, 2 BBs, 0 HRs allowed and 8 runs allowed. Royals pitchers have 4 Ks, 2 BBs, 1 HR allowed but 3 runs allowed. What could possibly be the difference?
Why even have third base coaches if runners are going to ignore them.
Glynn sent Plouffe.* I'm sitting just above the Royals dugout.
*if that's not what you're talking about, just ignore me
I think I half heard Bremer. Glynn put up a late stop sign.
If he did, it was so late that even I missed it. He was still waving in Plouffe as Orlando was making his throw.
More apt question, "Why have third base coaches if they're inept?"
Actual quote to Sheenie after Suzuki's single:
Hooray, now we get to see a terrible bunt.
Twins sac success rate has to be much inferior to the rest of the league
The guy behind is ripping on Mauer (who homered twenty minutes ago) for not having enough RBIs.
Teh stoopid, it burns!
Joe's batting line with RISP this season (43 PA, 29 ABs) : .276/.488/.345/.833
That including his league high 5 IBB's. Kind of hard to hit em in when they are giving you a free pass.
How can someone with his K and walk rates struggle as much as Nolasco?
He allows some hard contact, but also gets harmed by this atrocious defense. (Plouffe's "attempt" at Escobar's double, for example.)
I wonder if his rates with runners on is much worse than league average. The story with him is similar to Javier Vazquez: good/great FIP but middling ERA.
And Nunez's range there.
Nolasco ends today with a .727 BABIP against. (.615 including the sacrifice flies)
It's been that way his whole career, so you can't blame bad defense unless he has been really, really unlucky in that department. He's just an odd pitcher because he throws so many offspeed pitches. It's like he's constantly pitching backwards, always starting with the breaking ball to set up the fastball. I don't think he throws his fastball enough to have good control of it and if you throw enough breaking balls, you're eventually going to hang them and/or MLB hitters will sit on the get-me-over first-pitch curve and crush it. Ricky has been bad with the Twins but it's made even worse because it's no fun to watch him pitch because it seems like he's constantly trying to trick batters or nibbling at the plate instead of attacking them. Also, for his career, his numbers against with runners on base are much worse than no one on base.
Nolasco also seems to have the "one bad inning" a lot. That would tie into his numbers being worse with men on, as I think about it. Maybe something happens when he goes from the stretch, or maybe he's marginal enough that if one little thing gets out of whack he becomes very easy to hit.
I've had Ricky on my fantasy baseball teams a lot early in his career due to this. I kept waiting for his ERA to revert to his FIP and it never happened.
Interesting. His LD% is not bad--he's roughly 70th percentile (with 99th percentile being the lowest LD%). Sometimes GB pitchers have a worse BABIP, since it's easier to catch fly balls than it is to field grounders, but he's basically middle of the pack in GB%. He's somewhat a flyball pitcher, 70th percentile (with 99th percentile being the highest FB%). His IFFB% is pretty low, though, he's about 25th percentile there (with 99th percentile being the highest IFFB%.
His BABIP has been bad, he's just 13th percentile there (with 99th percentile being the lowest BABIP).
I did a quick regression model where I modeled BABIP based on GB%, LD%, FB%, and Hard%, and Nolasco still looks like an outlier there--based on his batted ball stats, you'd expect his BABIP to be better. So either it's transient, it's defense (he's only played for two different teams, and I can't remember the last time the Twins had a really good defense), or it's something outside the scope of the batted ball stats.
BABIP/ProjBABIP - Delta - Name, Team
0.365/0.273 - 0.092 - Collin McHugh, Astros
0.378/0.293 - 0.085 - Michael Pineda, Yankees
0.386/0.306 - 0.080 - Wily Peralta, Brewers
0.367/0.301 - 0.066 - Ubaldo Jimenez, Orioles
0.385/0.332 - 0.053 - Matt Harvey, Mets
0.331/0.282 - 0.049 - Ricky Nolasco, Twins
0.302/0.253 - 0.049 - Edinson Volquez, Royals
0.352/0.307 - 0.045 - Mike Pelfrey, Tigers
0.351/0.307 - 0.044 - Dallas Keuchel, Astros
I would generally consider this list to be the top candidates for BABIP regression, but if the difference persists season-to-season, it's probably something else.
I hope this game is not rained out so Joe Mauer keeps his home run .
First one of his I've seen live, so I'm with you.
The lower decks are really clearing out as people seek shelter, though.
Good thing they got those three pitches in.
Vin Scully talking about a dancing two year-old is quality rain delay entertainment.
I was legitimately disappointed we didn't get to see the rest of that show.
As was I. How about the guy who filmed himself catching two homeruns!
Yeah, that was the highlight.
Game on! (game on!)
thanks for the cover, DW.
How 'bout that start
Shannon StewartRobbie Grossman is having with the Twins?This game is going to end at 2am
DANNY SANTANA!!!!!! wow what a catch!!!
Rats, he trapped it.
Most random jersey/shirsey tonight:
Tie, between R.A. Dickey (as a Twin) and Chien-Mien Wang (as a Royal)
How bad do you have to play a ball for Sal Perez to get a leadoff triple?
How many games you think he sits after that...
I don't know. It looked bad but shouldn't cutoff man be running out deep to the outfield ready for the possibility of a long bounce, especially have that tricky RF in their home ballpark. I'm thinking Sano was expecting more help on that and Nunez wasn't there. Sano should have turned it on after seeing no one there, but I might find it hard to hustle when I see no one else is.
On a ball hit to right, the 2nd baseman should absolutely be trailing the ball, especially since there was no one on base at the time. Second base becomes the shortstop's responsibility.
The ball took a huge bounce toward the infield and it was Danny Santana retrieving it. Where were the infielders? That's a question no one seems to be asking.
I think some of the responsibility should go to the people who spent all winter and spring telling us that Sano was going to be just fine in right field and it wouldn't be a problem.
Why blame Baghdad Bob?
Actually, UZR has Sano below average but not by much (-4.0 on the season and -8.9/150). He's ranked ahead of JD Martinez, Jay Bruce, Nick Markakis and even Curtis Granderson, who used to be a pretty good CF. Torii Hunter was about average in RF last year, but his final year with the Tigers he was -20/150. UZR says Sano hasn't been great but I would be happy if I was told at the beginning of the season that this is where he'd end up . Just remember, Plouffe was not a good third baseman his first season and has become at least average.
My point is that Twins management has no right to complain about poor defense when they make the deliberate decision to use below-average defensive players.
I think for the most part Molitor was defending Sano from criticism other than saying he still needs to work on approaching the wall (after noting that Sano is daily working on just that). But I think you're right that Molitor doesn't need to get specific and should just emphasize that this is a process and they knew it wasn't always going to be pretty. The real problem is having an infielder playing center every day and mixing in a lot of Arcia (at least until recently) in LF. That combination is a train wreck just waiting to happen. The Sano experiment was supposed to be offset by Buxton in CF and Rosario in LF. Hopefully, it wont' be too long before Buxton and Kepler are up.
Nothing like grounding into double plays in 3 consecutive innings to get a rally started.
Twins pitchers have 9 Ks, 2 BBs, 0 HRs allowed and 8 runs allowed. Royals pitchers have 4 Ks, 2 BBs, 1 HR allowed but 3 runs allowed. What could possibly be the difference?