The Cubs won as many games as the Twins lost this season (and lost fewer games than the Twins won). Even accepting that they somehow underperformed their Pythag by 7 losses, I wonder if a return to .500 ball is two or more years away instead of next season.
It would take a twenty-two game improvement for the Twins to get to .500 next year. That's not unprecedented, but it's not exactly common, either. Of course, much depends on who the new poobah is, what kind of a plan he has, and how much freedom he's given to implement his plan.
And it's official that Derek Falvey is the new Executive Vice President/Chief Baseball Officer. I hope they just call him "The Chief".
"EVPCBO Falvey"
I agree that 22 game improvements are rare. So are 24 game drops year-over-year, but they do happen!
162-0!
Jeff A likes this.
The Strib had a list of every AL team that lost 100 games since the start of the 162-game season. Some teams did improve to .500 or better but it was rare.
I don't really think it's as bad as all that.
First, I take the young players - Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios. That 5 right there is something real, something potentially very special. They all project as star players. So there are bumps along the way, and this season saw a lot of them. But that core should be in place, 100% at the beginning of next season, and based on how they were looking at the end of the year, that's a good thing. Berrios might have longer to go, but I really do think he'll find it. He's been too dominant in AAA to believe otherwise. But the point is, these guys are all on the upswing. They're going to (mostly) get better year after year for a bit yet.
When you throw in some of their other pieces in place that work well - Dozier, Mauer, Santana. Those 3 are all going to hold their own just fine. I think you have enough to be a .500 team next year, maybe even better.
They need pitching. Oh boy do they need pitching. Let's say Santana, Gibson, and Berrios, right? So 2 starting pitchers? If they can do that.
I guess what I'm saying is, I'm way more excited for next year than this year's win-loss record would prompt, because of when you look at the actual players I think it looks pretty exciting. This year's record doesn't affect how they'll play next year, and we've seen something to look forward to from the young players.
Santiago is at least a .500 pitcher. Duffey could be a .500 pitcher
Santana, Berrios, Santiago, Duffey, Gibson, and May. That rotation does not inspire a lot of confidence. Then again, improve the fielding and maybe it doesn't matter that much.
Don't forget Phil Hughes. He's still under contract. I predict Duffey will be in the bullpen next year and will eventually be a very good reliever.
I strongly think the issue is less terrible pitching and that atrocious fielding exposed middling pitching. More Buxton will help a lot and so will having an infielder play the infield.
Yeah, the infielder part is a big deal.
So... what do we change about the team if we're all agreed on Buxton, Kepler, Mauer, Dozier, Polanco, Sano, and the rotation? 😉
Listing it out...
Catcher: ???
First: Mauer.
Second: Dozier.
Third: Sano. UZR had him as a plus fielder there this year and last.
Shortstop: Polanco? UZR did not like his fielding at short.
Right: Kepler.
Center: Buxton.
Left: ???
Suzuki's option did not vest so I think that makes him a free agent. That leaves Murphy as the catcher to start the season. Grossman is the obvious one to put in left but, well, gross. Maybe Rosario instead? Scouts never liked Polanco's fielding at short and the metrics agree with them. Escobar would then be the shortstop but he needs to bring back the 2015 version.
UZR had him as a plus fielder there this year and last.
Total Zone agrees with UZR. Baseball Info Solutions does not but not dramatically. Basically the 2 defensive metrics on B-Ref average out to average. If he can be an average defender at third, we should all be thrilled, especially if he can get back to walking at or near the same rate he did last year.
This could be its own post!
I had that intention, but then the conversation here just happened. Make it so?
The Twins finished with 11 players who hit 10 or more homers: Dozier, Sano, Kepler, Plouffe, Nunez, Park, Mauer, Grossman, Buxton, Rosario, and Vargas. I thought this was interesting:
Year
HR
OPS+
1963
225
108
1964
221
106
2016
200
99
1987
196
97
1986
196
103
Sean, I was sure you were going to get me this weekend.
It was so close. I didn't spend the time this weekend to load up on starters but I don't know if it would have mattered. My favorite part is the graph for the season. After May 1, we (*sniff* mostly you) led the entire way with an often big gap between second and third.
Congrats to you both! Quite a run.
My favorite part is sean made 7(!) moves all season and finished second.
Huh, those last few moves must've been during the past couple weeks, because I thought he was at 0-2 moves most of the season. On the flip side, I might have had the most.
Yeah. I made four or so moves in September. For most of the summer I was in second with zero moves.
I got very lucky in drafting the batters. I drafted both Bryant and Betts, plus everyone stayed healthy all year. I only had two batters go on the DL: Yan Gomes and I think Neil Walker. I also didn't bother with changing the lineup, ever.
My draft was a decent foundation, and my keepers (minus Cain) were all good calls. Lester and Fernandez came through big time for me. The difference was getting lucky in picking up (and keeping!) Trumbo, Napoli and Porcello at a relatively early point.
I had to start making more moves toward the end of the season when Salazar went down, and I couldn't bring myself to drop Fernandez.
Heck yeah- I was just really happy to make it up into third place.
To update the genealogical discussion of last week, if you are pretty much starting from scratch, I would recommend using the LDS' familysearch.org web-based solution for creating/maintaining your family tree. It is free, has lots of research help, and should be able to produce GEDCOM-standard output as well as some different visual/print output to use. I haven't played with it much yet, though.
Some of what they learn, invariably, involves pitching and hitting. But Statcast’s current impact pales in comparison to its potential achievements: the quantification of how well fielders play their positions, which baseball watchers have been trying to do without success since the sport’s beginning. The 2016 regular season, which ends this week, was only Statcast’s second. Eventually, teams will figure out how to use it to gauge fielding with the same acuity they bring to other aspects of the game, which have been scrutinized since baseball’s analytic revolution began in the late 1990s.
Once they do, Willman believes, there will be an upheaval in the way ballplayers are valued, from roster decisions to salary structure to postseason awards. Future stars are out there, he knows, some of them in the guise of ordinary players. A forward-thinking team has the opportunity to start stockpiling them now, before the rest of baseball even figures out who they are.
I'm dubious about the future stars part. We will finally be able to apportion blame to the right fielder but the players need to be tracked first. Soon that will include MiLB but how far beyond will it go?
Ex-Twins news: Chip Hale fired as Diamondbacks manager.
Stark picks Red Sox to beat Cubs in World Series. That would be some WS matchup. The two teams with the most insufferable fan bases plus the whole Epstein connection. I would probably still cheer for the Red Sox just to give Ortiz one great sendoff. A big postseason, especially one with "clutchiness" would probably make it a lot easier for HoF voters to make him the first exclusive DH to be voted in.
I'll happily cheer for them both to get beat out in their respective league championships' game 7 by walk-off in the 9th inning
I for one would like to see a World Series Champion Chicago Cubs team in my lifetime. But just one. After that, screw 'em.
Me too.
I'm planning a long life, so I'm hoping it won't be for many, many years
No. I still have to hear about the 1985 Bears. I don't want to hear about the 2016 Cubs for 30+ years.
Since when are Yankmes fans less insufferable than those of any other team? Or White Sox fans less insufferable than Cubs fans?
I can't tell if the bubble (or one of SB's tendons) will burst and the Vikes will lose 9 out of their next 12, or if they'll keep this up all year and lose in heart-wrenching fashion in the NFC championship. A new generation of young Minnesotans has yet to have their hearts broken yet...
I think the scars from last time have just recently healed over, so we're due for something painful.
The original generation of Vikings fans had their hearts broken in the Super Bowl four times.
I've long maintained that I've had it bad, but nowhere near as bad as the old timers. Their hearts must be one giant lump of scar tissue by now.
The Cubs won as many games as the Twins lost this season (and lost fewer games than the Twins won). Even accepting that they somehow underperformed their Pythag by 7 losses, I wonder if a return to .500 ball is two or more years away instead of next season.
It would take a twenty-two game improvement for the Twins to get to .500 next year. That's not unprecedented, but it's not exactly common, either. Of course, much depends on who the new poobah is, what kind of a plan he has, and how much freedom he's given to implement his plan.
And it's official that Derek Falvey is the new Executive Vice President/Chief Baseball Officer. I hope they just call him "The Chief".
"EVPCBO Falvey"
I agree that 22 game improvements are rare. So are 24 game drops year-over-year, but they do happen!
162-0!
Jeff A likes this.
The Strib had a list of every AL team that lost 100 games since the start of the 162-game season. Some teams did improve to .500 or better but it was rare.
I don't really think it's as bad as all that.
First, I take the young players - Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios. That 5 right there is something real, something potentially very special. They all project as star players. So there are bumps along the way, and this season saw a lot of them. But that core should be in place, 100% at the beginning of next season, and based on how they were looking at the end of the year, that's a good thing. Berrios might have longer to go, but I really do think he'll find it. He's been too dominant in AAA to believe otherwise. But the point is, these guys are all on the upswing. They're going to (mostly) get better year after year for a bit yet.
When you throw in some of their other pieces in place that work well - Dozier, Mauer, Santana. Those 3 are all going to hold their own just fine. I think you have enough to be a .500 team next year, maybe even better.
They need pitching. Oh boy do they need pitching. Let's say Santana, Gibson, and Berrios, right? So 2 starting pitchers? If they can do that.
I guess what I'm saying is, I'm way more excited for next year than this year's win-loss record would prompt, because of when you look at the actual players I think it looks pretty exciting. This year's record doesn't affect how they'll play next year, and we've seen something to look forward to from the young players.
Santiago is at least a .500 pitcher. Duffey could be a .500 pitcher
Santana, Berrios, Santiago, Duffey, Gibson, and May. That rotation does not inspire a lot of confidence. Then again, improve the fielding and maybe it doesn't matter that much.
Don't forget Phil Hughes. He's still under contract. I predict Duffey will be in the bullpen next year and will eventually be a very good reliever.
I strongly think the issue is less terrible pitching and that atrocious fielding exposed middling pitching. More Buxton will help a lot and so will having an infielder play the infield.
Yeah, the infielder part is a big deal.
So... what do we change about the team if we're all agreed on Buxton, Kepler, Mauer, Dozier, Polanco, Sano, and the rotation? 😉
Listing it out...
Catcher: ???
First: Mauer.
Second: Dozier.
Third: Sano. UZR had him as a plus fielder there this year and last.
Shortstop: Polanco? UZR did not like his fielding at short.
Right: Kepler.
Center: Buxton.
Left: ???
Suzuki's option did not vest so I think that makes him a free agent. That leaves Murphy as the catcher to start the season. Grossman is the obvious one to put in left but, well, gross. Maybe Rosario instead? Scouts never liked Polanco's fielding at short and the metrics agree with them. Escobar would then be the shortstop but he needs to bring back the 2015 version.
Total Zone agrees with UZR. Baseball Info Solutions does not but not dramatically. Basically the 2 defensive metrics on B-Ref average out to average. If he can be an average defender at third, we should all be thrilled, especially if he can get back to walking at or near the same rate he did last year.
This could be its own post!
I had that intention, but then the conversation here just happened. Make it so?
Done. I built it, now go there.
I agree the potential is there, but the question is whether the Twins have the ability to develop that potential.
Step One: Improve the player development process. Otherwise known as "get luckier."
The Twins finished with 11 players who hit 10 or more homers: Dozier, Sano, Kepler, Plouffe, Nunez, Park, Mauer, Grossman, Buxton, Rosario, and Vargas. I thought this was interesting:
Sean, I was sure you were going to get me this weekend.
It was so close. I didn't spend the time this weekend to load up on starters but I don't know if it would have mattered. My favorite part is the graph for the season. After May 1, we (*sniff* mostly you) led the entire way with an often big gap between second and third.
Congrats to you both! Quite a run.
My favorite part is sean made 7(!) moves all season and finished second.
Huh, those last few moves must've been during the past couple weeks, because I thought he was at 0-2 moves most of the season. On the flip side, I might have had the most.
Yeah. I made four or so moves in September. For most of the summer I was in second with zero moves.
I got very lucky in drafting the batters. I drafted both Bryant and Betts, plus everyone stayed healthy all year. I only had two batters go on the DL: Yan Gomes and I think Neil Walker. I also didn't bother with changing the lineup, ever.
My draft was a decent foundation, and my keepers (minus Cain) were all good calls. Lester and Fernandez came through big time for me. The difference was getting lucky in picking up (and keeping!) Trumbo, Napoli and Porcello at a relatively early point.
I had to start making more moves toward the end of the season when Salazar went down, and I couldn't bring myself to drop Fernandez.
Heck yeah- I was just really happy to make it up into third place.
To update the genealogical discussion of last week, if you are pretty much starting from scratch, I would recommend using the LDS' familysearch.org web-based solution for creating/maintaining your family tree. It is free, has lots of research help, and should be able to produce GEDCOM-standard output as well as some different visual/print output to use. I haven't played with it much yet, though.
I was out of the loop over the weekend. Did we discuss this article at the NYT??
I'm dubious about the future stars part. We will finally be able to apportion blame to the right fielder but the players need to be tracked first. Soon that will include MiLB but how far beyond will it go?
Ex-Twins news: Chip Hale fired as Diamondbacks manager.
Stark picks Red Sox to beat Cubs in World Series. That would be some WS matchup. The two teams with the most insufferable fan bases plus the whole Epstein connection. I would probably still cheer for the Red Sox just to give Ortiz one great sendoff. A big postseason, especially one with "clutchiness" would probably make it a lot easier for HoF voters to make him the first exclusive DH to be voted in.
I'll happily cheer for them both to get beat out in their respective league championships' game 7 by walk-off in the 9th inning
I for one would like to see a World Series Champion Chicago Cubs team in my lifetime. But just one. After that, screw 'em.
Me too.
I'm planning a long life, so I'm hoping it won't be for many, many years
No. I still have to hear about the 1985 Bears. I don't want to hear about the 2016 Cubs for 30+ years.
Since when are Yankmes fans less insufferable than those of any other team? Or White Sox fans less insufferable than Cubs fans?
I can't tell if the bubble (or one of SB's tendons) will burst and the Vikes will lose 9 out of their next 12, or if they'll keep this up all year and lose in heart-wrenching fashion in the NFC championship. A new generation of young Minnesotans has yet to have their hearts broken yet...
I think the scars from last time have just recently healed over, so we're due for something painful.
The original generation of Vikings fans had their hearts broken in the Super Bowl four times.
I've long maintained that I've had it bad, but nowhere near as bad as the old timers. Their hearts must be one giant lump of scar tissue by now.
Not to mention Drew F. Pearson.