78 thoughts on “October 24, 2016: Peace in our time”

    1. I assumed it was a warning that the regular location had been compromised. I proceeded to my office safehouse using an alternate route.

  2. Curious to know what other people thought of TWD premiere:

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      I guess if I've got to give a letter grade, B? It gives me hope for directions they can take the show, but I'm deeply skeptical of their ability to execute

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  3. Since today is an off day before the World Series, how about a trivia question:

    This former player pitched against all but four of the current major league teams. Two current major league managers and at least two current major league coaches caught him. Both Maury Wills & Trevor Hoffman were teammates of this pitcher.

    4. The correct answer has been provided, but here's the other clue for fun:

      Despite finishing his career with an exact .500 record, he won more games than John Smoltz, Kevin Brown, Don Drysdale, Orel Hershiser, or Roy Halladay. Even Curt Schilling didn't win more games than this pitcher.

  4. Did you know that there's a Junior National Finals Rodeo for kids? I didn't know that until about a week ago. This past weekend, my great-nephew, who is nine, qualified for it by winning a regional rodeo in Rock Springs, Wyoming! The Junior NFR is held in Las Vegas, and if I understand it right, it's held at about the same time as the big NFR. We're all pretty excited for him.

    1. Congrats to your nephew. I'm curious (but not curious enough to go look it up myself), what gets ridden in a junior rodeo? I would imagine safety is a big issue?

      1. My cousin did mutton busting when he was younger - essentially bucking rams instead of broncos or bulls

      2. My understanding is that they use bull calves. I don't know much about it, though, so I could be wrong.

  5. Okay, here's a question for those of you better at adulting than I (all of you, I'm guessing):

    We could probably use someone in the area of an accountant/financial adviser (more the latter side). Our finances are very basic, and I'm thinking we could use some direction. Want to purchase a house soon, college, general investment, etc. However, I have no clue where to even start on that. Anyone have tips on what to look for, expected fees (don't want to pay too much, naturally, but our stuff is on the super basic side so far), things to think on? Muchas smoochas!

    1. I find this kind of planning so daunting as to be utterly defeated by just considering all the variables I don't know, much less figuring out how I'm going to pay for it all. So, if nothing else, know that there's one other person out here who is on your level, if not below, when it comes to this kind of adulting.

      1. I find this kind of planning so daunting as to be utterly defeated by just considering all the variables I don't know, much less figuring out how I'm going to pay for it all.

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      1. Perhaps compounded by my feelings of inadequacy & bewilderment (mentioned above), there are few things* that get me on a rant more quickly than the catch-22 of higher education access/affordability and quality of life.

        '* FZ' SelectShow

    3. important #1: if your company has a 401(k), start putting money into it now, especially if there is matching. Every time you get a raise, kick it up another 1%

      important #2: pay off your credit cards and don't use more than you can pay off each month

      1. RE: #1. The only thing I'd caution is that, if there isn't matching, sometimes it can be more valuable to pay down debt now first. If you can afford to do both, do. But if interest on debt > rate of return on 401(k) (or even less, depending on credit score effects and desire for future borrowing, i.e. mortgage), then it makes sense to pay down debt first.

    4. Index funds are your friend. They are the closest thing to following "the market" there is and have incredibly low fees. I can't comment on which one to pick as my expertise is very limited.

      For houses, see last week.

      401(k)s are generally your friend, at least to the point that ostensibly your company is helping you. Or maybe it sucks and you're screwed. John Oliver featured them a few months ago on his show. You can skip to the end for his (swearing!) video containing tips.
      Another option would be Roth IRAs.

      That's all I've got.

      1. Aye.

        If you have high-interest debt, pay it off first. This is a low-interest environment. If you are carrying balances on your credit cards, pay them off ASAP and pay in full every month. Brown bag your lunch.

        Then, what sean and others have said. If you have a match on a 401K, that's free money. Take as much of it as you can and put it into no-load index funds. If a Roth 401K is an option at your work, take advantage when you are young and your marginal tax rate is lowest. Dollar-cost averaging is your friend.
        Ditto on 529 accounts for the kids. Start now. If you have loose change left over after these things, then Roth IRA.

        1. Being a quasi-gubmint employee, I'm paying into a state retirement system. The required contribution is 13.2% of gross earnings (6.6% contributed by employee & employer). The employee percentage is deducted pre-tax. Assuming my state retirement system still exists when I retire (shakier than I want to admit given who runs the state right now), should I still consider other sources of retirement income (401k, IRA)? There is a TSA program , but it doesn't have an employer match. I guess what I'm really asking is, should I be thinking about socking away additional resources for retirement, or putting things away for the Poissonnier's education?

          Fortunately, we have my disability payment as an additional, non-taxed income course, but that goes away when I'm dead.

          1. I don't know if you have the option for a 401(k) because I recall they are employer sponsored. I could be wrong. That leaves you IRAs. Roth is a popular option but you're limited to $5,500 of contributions a year (this applies to traditional IRAs too but there are still differences). Looks like a primary difference between the two is that an IRA can have tax benefits for that year but you get taxed when you withdraw while a Roth has no tax benefits that year but withdrawal is tax-free (broadly speaking, limitations still apply). You can convert a traditional IRA to a Roth but not the reverse. You do get taxed but you can do it at a time that is advantageous to you. I recall either now or recently there were some tax breaks about that. If you think your tax rate today will be lower than the future, a Roth makes more sense. If you think your tax rate in the future will be lower*, then a traditional makes more sense.

            Note, I am not a fiduciary and only play one on the internet. If it were me, I think I would opt for a Roth IRA and a 529*. How much goes into either is up to you. I think I would bias it to the IRA.

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            1. Thanks, sean. There's a lot of really helpful thought in that answer. I can understand why biasing toward the IRA makes sense. Unless I move into an administrative position my earnings are going to max out at a level where some financial aid is still pretty likely, which perhaps lowers the pressure to put more into a 529 to offset the hit from our expected contribution at a higher income level. Assuming the FZ stipulations you cite, of course.

              1. as a gubmint employee, I view my pension (and corresponding university pension, since I am a former member of the liberal elite) as a highly stable baseline of retirement income, similar to Social Security (which I also will have). So my allocations to other investments should be read in light of that low-risk baseline. I'm pretty much 100 percent in stocks via index funds, using the pensions and social security as my asset type diversification in my portfolio (I own several different kinds of index funds).

                YMMV on the risks associated with government pensions. For example, last year I extracted all of my money from the Illinois university retirement system and put it into an IRA, because I was worried about bankruptcy in that state.

                I have a 401k (no match) and my wife and I both have Roth IRAs, in addition to my traditional IRA. I expect that our retirement income will not dip all that much from our current income, so the Roth makes more sense than a traditional. Plus, you don't have to draw on it at all if you don't want to in retirement (and thus can use it in estate planning). I will probably look to roll over chunks of that traditional IRA once the Girl is done with college and off the dole.

                We invested heavily in 529s for the kids. Both went/are going to Fancy Pants schools, and our income is too high for Pell Grants. 529s are the best vehicle for someone like us to minimize the product of portfolio management headaches, fiscal discipline and tax exposure in planning for college. Whatever you do, try to avoid putting any money in UGMA/UTMA accounts for the kiddles. That is a recipe for minimizing financial aid. Just keep those assets in your own name until they are college seniors, then gift them startup funds if that's what you want to accomplish.

                2. The only thing my parents did was get me savings bonds and they had some good interest rates. When I cashed out at age 30 I made 100-125% on most of them.

                  Thankfully I always went to public school which fit my introverted never-get-involved personality.

                  1. I'm definitely pre-529 era. My parents provided me with the rough equivalent of tuition at a state school (I covered the rest through financial aid, work study, jobs during breaks, and modest loans) and a small nest egg of investments that they made on my behalf when I was very young. I'm definitely a fortunate son.

                    1. One parent offered me room & board if I stayed at local (to my view then, dead-end) state colleges. By that time I was desperate to get out of the area. The other co-signed some student loans that, today, neither of us would sign. Uncle Sugar put me through undergrad eventually. I'd like my kid(s) to avoid all three situations.

                    3. The 529 contributions are deductible in Wisconsin as well. I have money taken out once a month for each kid automatically, which makes it easier to get it in there.

                1. Yea, I think you are right. Recharacterization is basically an "undo" of a conversion from traditional to Roth. Thanks for clarifying.

                  Or. Or.

                  Through a Roth recharacterization, you either change a contribution from a Roth IRA to another type of IRA or nullify a previous Roth conversion. It's as if the contribution or conversion never occurred in the Roth IRA.

                  Vanguard reports a recharacterization on Form 1099-R as a distribution from the Roth IRA and on Form 5498 as a contribution to the non-Roth IRA. In Box 7 of Form 1099-R, you'll see an "R" for a contribution or conversion made for 2015 and recharacterized in 2016 or an "N" for a contribution or conversion made for 2016 and recharacterized in 2016. Contributions and conversions for 2015 that are recharacterized in 2016 will be reported on 2016 tax forms, which will be distributed in 2017.

                  You can still recharacterize contributions or conversions for a tax year on or before your federal tax return filing deadline for that tax year, including extensions, even if you already filed your tax return. However, you may need to file an amended return for the tax year in which the original contribution or conversion was made.

            1. Mid-thirties. I will be eligible for military service credit toward my retirement in another year or so, which will alter my retirement picture a bit. Realistically, though, I don't anticipate retiring early unless forced by health to do so.

    5. Definitely some great advice here for general finances.

      Towards my original question though, any thoughts/tips on using professionals? From the sound of it, seems like you guys are a bunch of one-man wolf packs.

      2. there may be some value in seeing a financial planner once, to get some general analysis and advice. But brokerage fees and management fees from actively managing your portfolio? Not so much.

        The best advice you can probably get: (1) start investing as early as you can, even if small. (2) dollar-cost average. Don't get caught up in short-term market fluctuations unless you like to entertain yourself that way. (3) focus on no-load index funds. (4) don't frick with your investment strategy. More people lose more money by buying and selling too frequently than they do by letting investments ride.

        Here's some sage advice from Time's Money Magazine:

        Shop locally. As long as you have at least $250,000 to invest—a typical minimum—see what a local financial planner charges. That face-to-face help may be less or no more than what you’d pay for a fund investment advice program. By the end of 2015, Vanguard’s Personal Advisor Services, which costs 0.3% plus costs of underlying investments, should be widely available.

        Pay for advice once. If all you need is guidance at the starting gate, you can hire an adviser by the hour instead of spending 1% to 2% a year. You might pay $800 to $1,500 for a one-time plan.

        1. As long as you have at least $250,000 to invest—a typical minimum

          Sure, let go empty my mattress...

          3. I left out the smiley face. But the scale there should tell you a bit about when it might be worth having such an advisor. IMO.

      3. We absolutely have a financial advisor, and have for over fifteen years now, although we use them more actively the past few years, Of course I'm may 10 years or so from thinking of retirement. You don't necessarily need one early on, but keep socking that retirement/college money so that when time comes to start thinking retirement your financial advisor will have something to work with.

        If you can find a good financial advisor (when the time comes), definitely do it. It can make a big difference when it comes to when to draw SS or from your IRA/401(k), etc., as well as balancing your investments for the long haul.

      4. Linds and I have used a professional for the last seven or eight years (we set up a retirement account for her and rolled over my 401k from my old employer in the beginning, we've added on some other accounts since then: rainy day fund, potential college fund, etc). We've been happy with it, in that our guy (don't know cost, I'm afraid) has kept an eye on things so that our actual interaction with it can be relatively minimal (twice yearly appointments and reading the balance sheets when they come to us). We're good with basic finances, but actual capital 'I' investing is something that neither of us want to put in the time to being good at.

      5. Yes you should use a professional financial planner. Do your parents? Siblings? In-laws? Ask who they use. That's a place to start. Do some research on fees and ask them questions. Find one you feel comfortable with, and hopefully through recommendations, feel like you can trust.

  6. My full-time rugby career is come to an end. I did score three tries on Saturday though across two games

  7. Setting up an online store for the journal I help edit might be the most exacting technical task I've volunteered to do in some time. Hopefully payments actually deposit into our account...

      1. Here's 57 pages of more detail if you want it....

        I scanned through the paper quickly, so certainly not a final judgement by any means, but I can't say I found this too convincing, especially since this kind of analysis introduces all kinds of data artifacts that could easily explain this result.

        If you claim alien signals, you better have some stronger evidence than this.

          1. Yeah, I know. If you want to speculate about superstructures around Tabby's star, I'll gladly join in, though!

            1. Similar dimming trends show up in 18 of 28 similar types of stars in the Harvard archive, independent data analyst Michael Hippke from Neukirchen-Vluyn, Germany, and Daniel Angerhausen of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., report online January 27 at arXiv.org. This leads Hippke and Angerhausen to propose the most banal explanation of all for the century-long dimming: imperfect data calibration.

              You guys are boring. C'mon! It's a fleet of autonomous robot planetoids!

  9. The pop singer who helped "Elston Gunnn," the newest Nobel Laureate, get his start has died. RIP, Bobby Vee:

    Bobby Vee’s storied music career involved a who’s who of rock ’n’ roll heroes, including Buddy Holly, Bob Dylan and the Beatles. Even after his own teen-idol fame and Billboard chart success, though, he famously remained a humble, hard-working Midwesterner who settled into a quiet life in St. Joseph, Minn., with his wife of more than 50 years, Karen.

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