105 thoughts on “December 14, 2016: So There’s a Five A.M. Now?”

    1. Damn world-beating mountain men. At 5 I'm typically dreaming about chaperoning a birthday party for my daughters where I weirdly stand around in my Magnolia attire teaching the kids how to bi-amp their Bowers and Wilkins CM9 tower speakers.

      1. I don't really have much choice. Its the only time I have to work out and I need to get to work early enough that I can both leave at 4:00 M-TH to save on daycare costs, and so I can do the usual half day Fridays. I would prefer to be dreaming about discussing home theater equipment with kids too young to understand any of it, though.

              1. Does your gym have weight machines or just free weights?

                I favor circuit training. Just alternate between pulling exercises and pushing exercises. Sets of 12-15 with comfortable weight. And do core stuff (abdominal curls, etc).

                1. It's small, but seems to have both. I know it's not that hard to look up a weight routine, just lazy (but yeah, i'd be looking for that kind of balanced approach). Also, it's been about 3 months since I've been actively running thanks to the ankle that's all shitty now. For now, gotta stick to low impact stuff. Gonna at least work up a base on the elliptical, then I'll venture over to the meathead section.

  1. What do people do at 5 in the morning?

    Back in the day the only reason I'd be up at 5 am is if I was on my way home from a night out.

    Now, I'm just asleep at 5 like any sane person.

  2. At 5 AM this morning, I got a request to check into my flight. What?!? I am supposed to fly tomorrow afternoon at 5. Nope, flight is at 5 AM tomorrow. Oy vey. I have no one to blame but myself.

    BTW, on the Zuckerberg monstrocity, I posted about Miss SBG passing her ice skating test yesterday. This was a big deal -- something she worked on for a long time. She is now working on her Axel, the toughest single jump. I think I posted about this in my post a while back. But, we were pretty happy that she got past this milestone. Oh, and she is growing up fast.

          1. I'm reminded of the first time that I purchased tix to see the Stones back in '89. At the time, I believe that GnR was opening for the Stones (although they weren't at the show I saw). My cousin remarked that in 20 years, he wasn't sure who would open for whom. Silly kids.

    1. SBG: Saw your book of faces post - congratulations to her! Watching Kernel's development from basically dangling on the uneven bars to actually doing a serviceable kip/fronthip circle* over the past 2 years is pretty fun.

      *she's a 5-year-old, once-per-week gymnast, so I'll happily admit I had to look these terms up.

    1. They just announced Colt Cabana will be at the First Avenue wrestling event in January.

  3. Last night Algonad linked to David Laurila's Fangraphs piece recounting of the conversation he had with Falvey & Levine at the Winter Meetings. If you haven't read it yet, it's definitely worth your time, and I think it's encouraging. Something else encouraging, particularly if you're down on Molitor, is his quote from Eno Sarris' piece on managers' adjustments to the latest surge of home runs:

    Paul Molitor, Minnesota Twins: You know, I’ve said this throughout my brief tenure. I like flow of an offense rather than to bank too much on the home runs. Some teams, Torontos and Baltimores and people like that, that relied on a heavy resource offensively. We hit 200 homers. We had one guy that hit 20% of them. It’s something that you welcome. I still prefer good at-bats, good situational hitting, good flow on the bases. It’s nice when you can start to win some games because you know you got guys that can hit it over the fence.

    I think all the managers are a little more hesitant to lose outs on the base paths these days in terms of how you manage. I’m a little guarded that way in taking potential — putting outs on the board or being too aggressive offensively — but I still think it has its place.

    I think that’s part of the studying going on. Talking about guys with spin rate and launch angles and figuring out how to pitch better and smarter.

    I don’t think what I did and what my coaches do — I don’t think we’re going to try to work any harder, we might try to work a little smarter. And if we can figure out how to do that with better resources and application, that’s what we’re going to do.

    1. I've always gathered that Paul is malleable and a good listener. Even when he was doing things I didn't agree with, I never got the sense that he was pointlessly stubborn about anything. It could be he got poor direction, and when you get poor direction, you go with what you know. And Molitor was a very successful bunter and base stealer and hit for average guy.

    2. One of the takeaways from the Fangraphs piece was talking about batting lineup. Ubelman and others have correctly pointed out that this is pretty minor. I agree but my counterargument has been the difference between a good manager and an average one is pretty minor. If a manager is not maximizing these limited opportunities to make an impact, what is he good for?

      Plus, it is one of those few areas where a fan could do just as good of a job. It's really not difficult.

      1. I basically agree with that. Managers don't matter that much, or at least we have very strong market evidence that they are a lot less important than the players are. And lineup order doesn't matter a lot, although I would caveat that by saying that I think sabermetrics (or at least the most popular sentiment amongst sabermetrics) is overly dismissive towards some of the smaller effects in the game. Just because something is difficult to measure doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

        I think lineup ordering is probably undervalued because it's really hard to measure. (Similar to how defense in the early 2000s was undervalued by teams like the A's because it was hard to measure.) You can't do actual A/B testing, and even for unsettled teams, you don't see nearly as many lineup combinations as if you were to randomly generate them. And I think there are a lot of little effects that add up that aren't necessarily well controlled for in order to do the proper controls you need to do to really study if lineup protection matters or if facing a particular combination of hitters is especially difficult. Delmon Young is my pet example of one such effect. Over his career, his Power/Finess splits are:

        .234/.275/.315 -- vs. Power, 1032 PA
        .278/.320/.416 -- vs. avg P/F, 1331 PA
        .311/.336/.482 -- vs. Finesse, 1932 PA

        That's just too many PA over too many years for this to be just a random effect. (The standard deviation on those batting averages is maybe 1 or 2 points.) It's also a pretty consistent effect year over year for Delmon--not just one season that drives his numbers way out of whack.

        Another one is that I think some pitchers are better from the stretch than they are from the windup, so runners on versus bases empty is going to be a legitimate split that you need to control for. This is going to matter in studying lineup ordering/selection because the high OBP guys are going to make everyone behind them more effective by forcing a pitcher to pitch from the stretch and if you're facing a pitcher who is bad from the stretch, that becomes a bigger impact.

        And I cringe at some of the SSS pitcher/hitter matchup stats that get thrown around at times, but if you were to model a lot of the above impacts simultaneously to come up with an a priori estimate of that split considering things like handedness, power/finess, runners on/off, fly ball ground ball, pitch selection, etc., and take a sort of Bayesian approach, you might actually start to get a decent idea of some pitching matchups that are particularly good or bad for a hitter.

  4. So if anyone deserves a good break this year, it's Trueblood (& my sister). Prayers and best wishes for them are appreciated as one of their other sons gets his heart checked today for a murmur that was picked up.

    1. Definitely prayers. How old? It's not unheard of for an infant to have a heart murmer that "goes away." Present company included as my diagnosed heart murmer freaked my mother out some 53 years ago.

  5. Five years ago this afternoon my mom called to tell me Pa was killed at work. My life is very different today than it was in the seconds before my phone rang, although he was already gone and I was simply drifting in the slack time between shifting realities. What I've thought about over and over since then is this: I don't remember our last conversation. I don't even remember the last time I saw him alive. I know we parted on good terms, which was a blessing. He'd been in my life since I was barely six months, but building our relationship took three decades. We'd finally reached a point where we could enjoy one another's company, work together on the important things, and not contest the stuff that came between us. Even now, when I think of the worst times in our relationship, I view them through the context of where we were able to wind up. That's a real blessing.

    If there are people you love who you don't see often enough, do me a favor and let them know today.

    1. One of the very small blessings with my FiL's illness and death was the opportunity we all had to spend conversational time with him as the end came barrelling near. We all knew that last Christmas/New Year's was almost certainly the last time we would see each other. That puts an awful weight on the conversation, but at least it gave us a chance to say things.

      1. Over Thanksgiving, was about to leave the ILs, and was shaking hands with FIL. He looked at me with the glance of This is the Last Time. Hope it's not the case but...

      2. An awful weight, indeed. Pops' last four or so days were in-home hospice, which was brief and, at the end, both emotionally excruciating and a source of grace for those of us who cared for him as he became less able, and then less present. He was able to say his goodbyes to people he loved. Old, old friends who'd drifted apart came to say goodbye. His fellow firefighters came en masse. His family was around him. I hope I'm as fortunate.

        1. I hope I'm as fortunate.

          Both my sister and my grandfather's last days were known. That opportunity to see them to the finish line was an amazing blessing. Having been there on this side, I'd like to be there on that side too.

    2. I remember when you shared that with this community, and it doesn't seem like that long ago. I'm glad to hear that you're getting on, and that you have fond memories.

  6. St. Paul people, any interest in lunch either tomorrow or Friday? I'm out the next two weeks so this is the last chance for me in December.

    1. Interested, always. But it would have to be off of Cretin/Vandalia for me to ever attend these days.

        1. Should have been more clear. Knowing that you rarely drive to work, I was saying that I could drive us to him.
          I'd rather pick you up than have you out walking around in this weather, but your call.

    2. ... So, maybe a caucus on the 2nd / 3rd lunch... ... ... ... ... Dr. Chop and I will be in the cities at some point round those dates if there is interest.

      1. 3rd lunch in downtown Mpls would be do-able from my POV.
        2nd caucus is possible, but I can't commit at this point.

              1. Ahh, heh, for some reason I read that as in a sequence (the AMRing of the dates didn't help). Ugh, I've been sick and trying hard to ignore it...

  7. Trey's baseball team hasn't played in a week. They play tomorrow and then have a couple weeks off for Christmas. Problem is, there is a winter storm coming with a lot of rain. I'm looking at predictions that say there is a 25% to up to 60% chance of rain during the time the game is scheduled. It's a home game and I'm sure his coaches will want to get the game in considering the schedule and they wouldn't want 3 weeks between games, so tomorrow could be interesting.

    1. It's sounding more like the rain will come after the game. I did see that we are predicted to get 1.5 inches of rain overnight. If true, that might put our total for this winter over what we got last winter during El Nino.

  8. Had an interesting Amazon experience. Since I have Amazon prime, my mom asked me to order her a roomba - I did and had it sent to her address. The next week, I got a notification from Amazon apologizing for the inconvenience and letting me know that a refund had been issued in the form of an Amazon gift credit. Confused, I texted my mom to ask if she refused delivery or returned it - she said no, she still had it. Later, I got a notification about a roomba shipping, but it was a different model and it was going to a name and address I've never heard of (Ivan in New Jersey). Thinking my account had been compromised, I canceled the order and changed my password. The next day, I got a notification from Amazon that my account was compromised and they reset my password.

    Maybe there was just a mix-up on the side of Amazon or the seller, and then when I canceled an order and changed my password it raised flags of my account being hacked. But my theory is that someone accessed my account, complained about the roomba I ordered and demanded a refund in the form of credit, and then used the credit to order a roomba for themselves. I guess that only makes sense if Ivan had plans to somehow monetize the second roomba, or he coincidentally really wanted a roomba.

  9. 100 year ago today Shirley Jackson was born. She's slightly behind J.K. Rowling in Survivor challenges inspired by her work.

  10. An interesting topic came up during a lunch outing today: What is your favorite scent (cologne or perfume)?

    The one I love to wear is Bleu de Chanel. I've actually had a few compliments while wearing that. Lady Friend wears Armani Code for Women that is really great.

    1. It all got started because there was a young guy sitting at the table next to us with a ridiculous amount of AXE body spray on. I swear there was a cloud that surrounded him.

        1. Is Axe a bad scent? That's a legitimate question - I know they're an easy target because of the commercials, but I wouldn't know the smell if I passed someone wearing it.

          1. Axe is a little over-sweet and a little over-chemical smelling, but as bS mentions, the main reason for the bad rep that I've ever heard is the overapplication.

            1. Problem is: there's apparently no way to underapplicate Axe other than leaving it on the shelf at the supermarket.

    2. Funny, I usually wear the men's version of Code.*
      Most days, my wife wears L’Eau d’Issey (Issey Miyake) which I love. She used to send me letters sprayed with Swiss Army for her, so that punches pretty deep too.

        1. My undefined astrisk should have gone on to describe the 'unusually' scents (per CH, "evening/formal occasions") - Lacoste Blanc or Bottega Veneta.

      1. Philosofette recently discussed the fact that she'd like to have a go-to, but she has a distaste for a lot of the scents that are out there (often too heavy, often too floral). I'm curious if there are other recommendations for women folk from the nation?

          1. Alder if I'm going for subtle and delicate, pecan for everyday wear, and mesquite for when I need to be fierce.

    3. I made a comment awhile back at CdL about this, but I don't have a favorite smell because I can only smell a few things.

    4. I switched to Viktor & Rolf's Spicebomb a few years ago after my previous cologne (Polo Explorer) was discontinued. It's my regular scent. I go to Safari for Men for evening/formal occasions.

      On the opposite sex: Chanel No. 5 always catches my attention.

Comments are closed.