36 thoughts on “August 28, 2017: Buxton”

  1. Buxton has taken over the rWAR lead on the Twins. He's at 4.3 rWAR compared to Santana's 4.0 rWAR.

    For Fangraphs, he has 2.5 fWAR, behind Dozier's 2.8 fWAR and Sano's 2.6 fWAR. No pitcher is above Berrios's 2.0 fWAR

      1. Batting is very similar between the two, leaving the largest difference for positions players as fielding. UZR thinks Buxton is merely really good (+8) instead of best ever (+23) that DRS thinks. Fortunately, MLB is coming up with a stat for fielding based on Statcast.

        Pitching is clearer: ERA vs FIP. Santana has a nice ERA but less nice FIP. Berrios is the reverse..

        1. From reading an entry written by a guy who works on DRS (teh googles!), it sounds like DRS is better. Yes?

          1. Perhaps it is, but that's like one of our vendors saying "My opinion is that our TVs are the best." Well, of course it is. What are trusted third parties saying?

              1. I will say DRS is best. I don't know much about either, but I like the one that rightly portrays Buxton as the God of Centerfield.

          2. I've liked UZR better historically.

            For a while, DRS did dumb things when the shift was on. For example, if the third baseman shifted to between first and second and made a play on the ball, DRS would simply note the player had the greatest range ever and made a play in that location, and not mention they he did not in fact run 150 feet to get to the ball. I know it's improved since then, but it speaks to the people behind the stat that they haven't fully thought through the model.

            I'm hoping Statcast ends this soon. Right now averaging them might be best.

    1. Buxton is now 9th in the AL in rWAR among position players. On July 3, Buxton went 0-for-4 to put him at .195 batting average and .552 OPS. He is now at .249 and .715. That big jump came despite missing the last 2 weeks of July. He ended last year at .714. He has 63 more PAs this year but 5 less Ks than last year and his K rate is dropping.

  2. The Twins are 1.5 games ahead of LAAAA and Seattle for the second wild card. Boston, Cleveland, and Houston are locks: 100% for the second two and 99.4% for Boston. New York is next at 89.3%. There's a big gap after that with the fifth most likely team to make the postseason: the Twins at 31.2%. Next best at 20.6% are the Angels.

    1. I fully expect Cleveland and Houston to be in the playoffs, but it is not truly 100% that they will be there.

        1. Looking at it, it seems that "100%" means <0.05% chance of not.
          In the NL, WAS and LAD at 100%, ARI 92.9%, CHC 91.4%, COL 74.2%, then a big gap...
          FLO 14.5%, MIL 13.6%, STL 12.5%, PIT 0.8%.

  3. Last 28 days (27 games):
    Slash line: 275/342/485 (sOPS+ of 117)
    Opp slash: 235/294/404 (sOPS+ of 83).

    Above-average offense and defense at the same time? I love it when a plan comes together.

    1. He apparently has the distinction of being the only man named "Arlo" to play in the major leagues.

        1. Also the only major leaguer named "Brunsberg".

          One of two to have attended Concordia College--Moorhead, with Chris Coste being the other.

          Career slash line of .333/.500/.667.

          He was in the minors from 1962-70, He was briefly in the Pittsburgh and Baltimore organizations but spent the vast majority of his career in the Detroit system.

          He was the head coach at NDSU from 1971-73.

          Surprisingly, SABR has a pretty substantial biography of him.

          1. More ironic that Fertile has the crappiest sandy soil, while "sister city" Beltrami 12 miles away is prime lake bottom land. I have no idea what someone was smoking when they named it.

            But it is the home of many Fertile elementary kids and senior citizens

  4. I spent all day keeping the Milklings focused on cleaning house so we could use our last couple of punches for the water park. Found out the "extended summer" hours are 11-5 instead of 11-7:30. We had a very nice final half-hour at the park, I guess.

    1. I once bribed the kids to stay at a Twins game throught the 7th inning with a promise of ice cream. Then they closed all the stands with ice cream in thr 7th.

      I'm lucky to be alive.

      1. Hell hath no fury like a child scorned with no ice cream.
        Luckily, there's always DQ.

  5. Harvey hysteria has hit New Orleans. Everything is closing tomorrow, though I feel no fear.

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