Cup of Coffee

February 5, 2020: Maeda For g-RATE-rol

34 Comments

This Trade Is:

  • Good. (50%, 12 Votes)
  • Fine. (21%, 5 Votes)
  • Great! (17%, 4 Votes)
  • MmmmmI don't knooow... (13%, 3 Votes)
  • Turrible. (0%, 0 Votes)

Total Voters: 24

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34 thoughts on “February 5, 2020: Maeda For g-RATE-rol”

  1. Apart from the focus on making a quality addition to the rotation when they need it (which I applaud*), one of the things this trade seems to suggest is that the front office is more confident in the development of Balazovic & Duran as starters than Graterol.

    Still, gonna miss the high octane gas. SelectShow

    * Adding a high-quality arm via free agency was always going to be the preferred path, given the personnel cost trades create. Unfortunately, that didn’t work out. I’m glad Falve & Levine kept looking for a way to improve their roster when they absolutely should be trying to win a pennant. If they manage to do that — particularly if they knock out the Yankmes in the process — I suspect people won’t mind even if Graterol looks like Liriano in Boston for a couple years.

    1. It’s hard to say a lot on Graterol based on the numbers, since he moved up so quickly, but his BB/9 did go up from roughly 2.5 to 3.5 from 2018 to 2019 in the minors. Whether he projects to 3 BB/9 or 5 BB/9 ultimately makes a huge difference. I think if there are concerns about his secondary pitches, there is a real risk his success in the minors won’t translate well to the majors. I probably over-index on walk rate a bit, but I feel like it tends to weed out the pretenders from the contenders—Graterol doesn’t exactly look this way, but there are a fair number of prospects who get K’s on minor league hitters chasing pitches that MLB hitters won’t chase, and they tend to see increasing walk rates as they move up.

      1. Fair. He seems like a thrower more than a pitcher at this point. But if we think Wes Johnson is all that, surely he could have helped him harness his talent and develop secondary pitches.

        Again, I know Johan's example is not a great comp, but look at his development. His control was not good until, suddenly, several years in, he was the best pitcher in the game.

        Projecting careers is hard, to be sure. Risk aversion is rational. I just wanted that big shot at a homegrown superstar.

        1. I just wanted that big shot at a homegrown superstar.

          Totally understandable. With this front office, hopefully those will become less few & far between.

        2. I mean, if you believe most of the projection folks, Balazovich and Duran both have as good or better chances at being that (Duran was traded, but still).

          1. We should probably moderate our expectations there. When Eric Longenhagen & Kiley McDaniel looked at the Twins’ prospects in December, they said Duran is “tracking like a mid-rotation starter” and Balazovic “pretty firmly projects as a No. 4 starter right now.” That’s still pretty good for guys who are 22 and 21, respectively, but I think we all would like to see the Twins develop their own Félix Hernández.

            1. And Graterol projects to be a very good, possibly injury-prone reliever. There are precious few actual "pitching prospects". In fact, some would have you believe that there are none. I was merely commenting that Graterol wasn't the only, or maybe even the best, pitching prospect that the Twins had.

              1. And Wes Johnson could just as easily give Maeda pointers as Graterol. Velocity is great, but I trust the FO to know the intangibles better than we do as far as what his future holds, and whether his value is better now or later. If it's looking like a four-way scrum for a spot in the rotation/bullpen, fine, get some value now.

    2. One thing that also jumped out at me is that the Year of the HR also happened to be Maeda's lowest HR/9 of his career. Yes, Dodger Stadium, but apples vs. apples.

    3. On Maeda … you guys like data, right?

      -and-

      José Berríos is a more traditional workhorse. Jake Odorizzi has a deeper repertoire. Taylor Rogers is a relief ace. In the right mix, however, new acquisition Kenta Maeda can be better than any of them, and the erstwhile Los Angeles Dodgers swingman has landed on a Minnesota Twins team that suits him just as well as his old one did. While other pitchers might be more valuable in a vacuum, the specific context of the Twins pitching staff makes Maeda the most valuable hurler they have. That’s a bold claim, and the advisability of trading Brusdar Graterol for Maeda partially hinges on its viability, so here are five numbers to support it.

      Trueblood's got moxie

    4. Apparently, the Red Sox, after "reviewing medical records" realized why the Twins view Graterol as a reliever and are asking for more back in the trade. Not sure if it would be the Dodgers or Twins who would be sending more. To me, it sounds like the Red Sox saw the response on social media and are trying to appease the masses.

          1. Actually, reading closer... the trade hasn't actually been made official yet, so... it seems like an "all teams involved" problem.

            1. The Twins should acknowledge the issue and throw-in a rarity to seal the deal: a game-used Dyson jersey.

  2. Strategic question: given that the punishment for electronic sign stealing is not very severe, would it make sense to use the more complicated signs for every PA? I’m not convinced the Astros could steal signs with a runner on second.

    1. I'm a little surprised they don't do that, anyway. It wouldn't seem to be THAT hard to have a reasonably complicated, yet easy to remember set of signs that would be very, very difficult to crack.

      1. I was listening to Mackey & Judd on the day the punishments came down, and Mackey said he had a contact who used to work with a team who actually had people on staff who were focused on basically code breaking signs.

      2. I am pretty sure the players are the limiting factor. I generally agree that you wouldn't need super elaborate signs to make them difficult to break., though over time someone sufficiently motivated could probably break them. What would really improve your chances is if you could rotate signs inning by inning, but then the players need to keep a new set of signs straight every inning.

        1. And honestly, like Rhubarb alludes to elsewhere, the trick is getting the stolen signs to the batter quickly enough. If they have to spend any time at all "decoding", they wouldn't have enough time to inform the batter of anything.

      1. I only looked at a couple games where there were "bangs" but there were no bangs with a runner on second base. I'm actually not convinced that they were able to steal signs at all times.

        1. and the recent data dump analyzed by Rob Arthur suggests that when the sign was relayed correctly by the banging, OPS went up. But signs were relayed incorrectly enough times that it actually hurt the batter significantly, evening things out

          1. Yeah, the problem with the banging, is if you don't get a bang, you assume you're getting a fastball, but it could just mean that they didn't see the signal. I guess they would tell the batter to hit like normal unless you hear a bang, then sit on offspeed.

    3. I just had a thought: what if this ends up speeding up game times? Maybe everyone is going to be in a rush to get the pitches to the plate before anything can be relayed.

    1. At least he will still write publicly. When I saw the headline, I assumed another team had poached a FanGraphs writer.

      1. True. (I wonder if McDaniel’s time with the Braves soured him on working for an organization?) And while it wouldn’t be healthy if all the top talent concentrated at The Athletic, I kinda wish Law & Peter Gammons were still at the 4ltr and McDaniel & Sam Miller with the upstart.

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