Cup of Coffee

September 24, 2020: King Kenta

40 Comments

One of my favorite things about Maeda joining the Twins (and there are so many) is finally my Japanese friends can acknowledge that Minnesota actually has a baseball team. For obvious reasons, Nishioka did not bridge that gap.

40 thoughts on “September 24, 2020: King Kenta”

  2. MLB 2020 Playoff Tiebreakers -

    #1 - Head to Head
    #2 - Intra division
    #3 - Intra division last 20 games record then count back 1 game at a time as/if needed

    Division Wins:
    Tampa Bay 27
    Oakland 24 + 4 to play
    Chicago 25 + 1
    Yankees 23 + 1
    Twins 23
    Cleveland 22 + 1

    Twins Magic Numbers:

    #1 or #2 Seed - 6 - Twins win out to 38, Tampa Bay loses out to 37-23 and Oakland finishes 3-2 or worse to 37-23

    #3 Seed - 4 - Twins win out to 38, Chicago loses 1 OR Twins win 3 way tie at 35-25, 36-24

    #4 Seed - 2 - Any 2 combo of Twins win and/or Yankees lose (Twins have tie breaker over Cleveland and have magic number of 1 on Cleveland for 4th seed)

    Tampa Bay - 3 vs Philadelphia

    Oakland - 1 at Dodgers 4 vs Seattle

    Yankees - 1 at Toronto 3 vs Miami

    Chicago - 1 at Cleveland 3 vs Cubs

    Cleveland - 1 vs Sox 3 vs Pittsburgh

    The National league is a cluster@#$/ I don't have time to look at until tonight.

    Cincinnati is locked into tight playoff race - I don't think a 3 game sweep for the Twins is likely although we don't have to face Trevor Bauer. The apocalyptic scenario is Twins losing out to 35-25 and Cleveland winning out to 36-24 with Sox at 35 or better putting Twins in 7th seed - actually no 5th seed playing at Yankees in my mind is worse than 7th seed playing at either Tampa Bay or Oakland.

    Cubs are locked in - but are throwing Darvish in game 1 vs Sox

    if Cleveland wins again tonight I will begin to entertain the possibility of the 3rd seed - for now I am happy that the odds point to the Twins hosting the Yankees who aren't looking invincible right now.

    1. I havent paid too much attention to the NL, didnt realize Cincy was doing as well as they are this year.

      1. Lots of talk that Cincy could be a 7 or 8 seed spoiler with their top 2 pitchers. We don't face Bauer - but the Saturday matchup of Pineda vs Castillo is a huge game for Cincy and will likely be a huge game for Twins too although there is a scenario where the #4 seed is locked up Friday night and I am not convinced the Twins won't rest guys over the weekend and not really push for the division title.

      2. I picked Cincinnati to go to the playoffs, so I’ve been paying close attention. Of course, I always pick them to go to the playoffs, so it’s no great achievement.

        Looks like I nailed 7/8 AL teams. I don’t think the Angels are about to overtake the Jays to make it a clean sweep.

    2. personally, I'd rather play the Yankmes in the first round than the Naps. Cleveland's starting pitching is 5.2 Wins Above Average. Minnesota's is second at 1.8. I fear the Ass Bats.

          1. sure, HF >> travelling. And playing NYY > playing CLE, IMO. But playing CLE at home is probably better than playing NYY at NYY.

    3. FWIW, 538's projected records would put the Twins tied for second in the AL with Oakland, so they'd wind up in the 3rd seed. Though they are only projected 1 game ahead of Chicago, so clearly many of the scenarios you list out are in play.

      1. 3 seed = hosting Houston

        Probably a better option than the Yankees.

        I don't know that I have a Tampa Bay/Oakland preference for the 2nd round nor would I bet on both of them making it to the 2nd round.

    4. I'm now willing to entertain the still less than 50% but much greater than 3 days ago odds and possibility that the Twins could win the division and host Houston instead of the Yankees.

  3. If you have colleagues and friends who are BIPOC, please offer support today along and share any anti-racism steps you are taking in your life.

    1. without commenting on the substance, I would comment that it is interesting how fast "BIPOC" seems to have entered into (relatively) common discourse.

      1. Along with “anti-racism,” which is a helpful nuance in the racism vs. “not-racist” spectrum.

          1. Not the liquid kind. Powder as a starter kit.

            My kombucha mother sat dormat in a deep, dark cabinet for at least a year. Set up a new batch and she worked like a charm.

            Oh shoot, that reminds me, the second fermentation should by complete with the current batch...

    2. Looks good. Philosofette made me a grilled turkey and cheese, with jalapeno today. Not sure what all was in it (cheese types, condiments, etc.), but it was excellent.

      Used mayo instead of butter for frying/grilling. That trick has been a nice pick-up.

  5. somewhat apropos of this sandwich discussion. Just got back from teh Costco, where, for the second time in two weeks, I bought a package of roasted chicken leg quarters.

    When they don't sell all of their roast chickens, they cut them up and repurpose. Recently, one repurposing was to sell leg quarters in their cooler section. 2.75 lbs of roasted leg quarters for $4.99. As I am a Leg Man, I am in favor of this. No carving, no mussing with the carcass. Downsides, no wings. Downside for the Mrs, no breast meat. But mmmm.

    Tonight I plan to roast brussels sprouts with cut up Andouille, bake a potato to share, and pull some of the chicken. A little tomato salad with feta on the side.

    1. I've bought that package a number of times. Can(/could) cook it up in the office's fancy toaster oven with some sort of sauce or dressing and just eat as is.

  6. Now for another episode of Truck Time with Twayn.

    The Santa Fe (Mrs. Twayn's vehicle) had been feeling sketchy in the front end lately, some lurching during acceleration and I noticed the tires were showing uneven wear. I took it in for an inspection and alignment. Two strut assemblies, two ball joints, stabilizer links, a front wheel bearing, alignment and $1600 later, and I still need to replace a rear bearing that sounds like a jet taking off at highway speeds. That one I can do myself since I plan to replace the whole wheel hub assembly, and I'll probably go ahead and replace brake pads and rotors on both sides when I do it.

    Then there's this: Younger Daughter's 2004 Subaru Forester had been doing some intermittent overheating. I did a flush and fill but couldn't find any leaks and that seemed to fix it. A week or two later it started overheating again, so I took it to the shop. They diagnosed a bad thermostat and replaced it. It overheated as I was driving it home last night, so I turned around and took it back. Today they called and said the passenger side head gasket (cylinders 1 & 3) is leaking, which I was afraid of from the beginning given the car's age and mileage. They quoted me $3500 for a car that cost $4000 and that Younger Daughter just paid off last month. I told them not to bother. They're going to try some leak sealer since, what the hell nothing to lose. So once I knock off the bearing and brakes on the Santa Fe which I hope is only a 2-3 hour job, I may be doing a head gasket on the Forester. Stay tuned.

      1. Speaking of, I've gotten back into biking this summer because I was horribly out of shape and its an activity I thoroughly enjoy (plus this past weekend I participated in a brewery "race" that was about twenty miles total with beers at each stop. It was a fun excuse to wear inappropriate shorts at a (outdoor) bar). I've got a 1988 Trek 400, which is a great bike, that my mom gave me in 2002 and its starting to show its age. Fortunately it looks like the frame is not rusted beyond being able to be refurbished, so I think I am going to rebuild it with modern components instead of getting a new bike. I don't know if there's much interest, but I think I may document the project here.

    2. head gasket (cylinders 1 & 3) is leaking

      Yup, sounds like a Subaru. (overall I am not knocking them, though)

  7. WAR, what is it good for?

    Based on WAR and its underlying components, we can say with some certainty that the most a player can be worth in a span of 60 games is 5-6 wins more than a replacement-level player. We can also say that this season’s standouts have been worth about 3 WAR. Any given player with roughly 3 WAR might truly have been closer to 2 or 4. But we know that no player was worth 8 or 10.

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