Cup of Coffee

December 9, 2020: Al & Wendy

57 Comments

A completely random fact I recently learned was the apparently now very out of print copy I had of Weird Al's Peter & the Wolf was also written by Wendy Carlos. That makes total sense to me now.

57 thoughts on “December 9, 2020: Al & Wendy”

    1. I always assumed Letterkenny was the home of the world's largest pheasants.

      (i'd post a video here, but none of them are close to being safe for work)

  2. Hey Jeff A, so how's it going with COVID in your neck of the prairie? I hear the horror stories coming out of SD (1 in 800 dead) and see that the per capita numbers in your area of the state are just staggering. SBG and another person I know from ND talk about how their Facebook pages are full of high school friends and families suffering from COVID.

    How is your community handling all of this? Scared? Stoic? Vigilant? I'd love to hear your "boots on the ground" perspective. Then again if you care not to publicly share those thoughts, I would understand.

    1. Five people that I knew have died of COVID and dozens and dozens of people that I know have had it. My niece, a type I diabetic, and in her last year of medical school in SD school got it. She survived, thankfully.

    2. It's really difficult to separate fact from rumor around here, but we certainly have our share of it. It got here much later than it did most of the country, but it's definitely here now.

      How the community is handling it depends on who you mean. Some people are basically not leaving home unless absolutely necessary. Others are going around as if there's nothing to worry about. And of course, you have lots of people in-between.

      The schools have pretty much decided they're going to stay open. They have procedures for how long someone has to stay out if they've tested positive or been exposed, and of course, are doing their best to educate them when they're out. School activities are immediate family only for attendance in Gettysburg. In Onida the public can still come, but masks are required. I have a lot sympathy for the school administrators. They're having to deal with something they never bargained for when they took this job, and have never really been trained for, although I'm sure they've received some training in recent months. They're doing their best with the limited information they have, just as we all are.

      Our churches have stayed open. Well, the Agar church closed for a few weeks, but then decided to open again. Attendance is significantly down, and I certainly don't blame people for that. We are continuing to livestream. One of the differences between the church and the school, of course, is that no one is legally required to come to church.

      So, that's basically where we are right now. We continue to make the best decisions we know to make with the information we have, and we ask God to guide us.

      1. Thanks.

        My parents have been "going" to church via the on-line service since April and absolutely love it. They sit on the couch in their pajamas and coffee and are full participants. (My dad definitely has co-morbidities and except for trips to the VA has been practically quarantined since that time). I wonder when this is all done if they will continue to do on-line service. It also helps the church financially that they have automatic bank deductions of the offerings so the the collection plate hasn't suffered.

        1. I really wonder about the future of our smaller rural churches. Once people get used to going to church online or by TV, are they going to come back to the sanctuary? And if not, how long are they going to stay loyal to their local church? After all, if you're doing church online, you have a vast number of choices, and an awful lot of them have better music, better production values, and more dynamic preachers than our small, rural churches can ever have.

          I wonder if, in the future, the role of the rural pastor will be more like a chaplain, doing funerals, weddings, hospital visits, etc. But then the question becomes, where's the money for that going to come from? It all makes me feel better about getting closer to retirement age.

          1. Unless you are infirm or the weather really sucks, I can't see sitting at home instead of attending in purpose. But times are changing; those are pretty valid concerns.

          2. Personally, though we mostly do online church now (about once a month we still go in-person), I won't consider online church a replacement to actual attendance. I'd probably consider it a supplement though. I could see myself (especially later in life) tuning into more services than my local one, and spending more time in an online church environment.

            1. In my limited experience, attending services is at least as much about fellowship as it is about ritual. And shared ritual >> virtualized ritual.

              In jewish services, the after party is the "oneg." I forget what the presbys called the coffee-and-cookies after hour.

    3. I toggle back and forth on the case rates by state...SD has 2nd highest case rate in the nation on #45 testing rate...so...somehow even worse than it looks.

      2. comparative hospitalization data through Dec. 8 reporting. (Nevada has surpassed South Dakota slightly, fwiw)

    1. I wish we could see the results so that we could stuff the ballot box from different ip addresses.

    1. With two one way Green Line tickets in the ticket package. Park at either end and use as needed.

      Too bad there wouldn't be a way to run express trains since there's no 3rd track anywhere.

    2. The Saints were doing 5pm Sunday games for a couple years (games were on 45 tv is the only reason I know this), if they continue that could have double header possibilities

    3. The Saints shared it on Twitter so it's probably a done deal.

      I'm surprised more teams don't keep their minor league teams closer. Seems like it would be better for revenue and expense.

        1. The partnership between the organizations gives the Twins a minority stake in the franchise, but the majority ownership remains with Saints Chairman, Marv Goldklang, President, Mike Veeck, and Team Psychologist, Bill Murray.

          1. I love that Bill Murray is still an owner. It's been a long time. He wore a Saints' cap in Space Jam.

      2. Teams appear to be trying to do this now. I don't know if they want all MiLB affiliates close to the MLB club or only to minimize travel between the adjacent levels. The Twins will have three of the four close by.

      3. Atlanta and another club (forget who) have their AAA team in the same Metro (maybe it's Seattle and Tacoma). But, yes, I think this is good for the Twins. And look! Taxpayers built both clubs new stadiums!

    4. As I said before, given that I'm an 8 minute slow walk from CHS, I think this is very cool. Who knows, maybe I could even be one of those old dudes who works the aisles, telling people where their seats are, fetch balls for kids, etc.

      1. That's one of the many great things about Bob Collins (well, it was. I don't know if he'll be back whenever fans return to Target Field, but I always enjoyed giving him a Luciaesque, "Hey, Bob" whenever I saw him)

    5. This raises all sorts of branding questions. If the St. Paul Saints and Minneapolis Millers were the two minor league predecessors... Does the parent club need to rebrand as the Millers? Does Minnie need to become Twinnie? Is Paulie shaking hands with his older, younger, brother? What's going on now?!?

      2. A Minneapolis Millers throw back the clock night would be cool. I wonder how holds the copyrights to the logo and such.

  6. ESPN is counting down the top 100 players in the NBA and they have gotten to 11. The ten players below haven't been named yet. Here is my ranking of them. Note: all of these guys are dynamite players.

    1. LBJ -- He's approaching the very short list of players who have been in the NBA for more than half their life. He's not the athletic player he once was, but in my book, he's still the guy you want leading your team in the NBA playoffs, which is all that counts. He's the best player in the world, still and I think his case for best player of all time is solidifying.
    2. Giannis -- Still on the rise. Still has room to grow. Needs to shoot better. There are nits to pick, but he's above everyone else on this list save LeBron, so....
    3. Steph -- I think there's something to prove this year. Greatest shooter of all time, but he's not playing with Klay and KD anymore, at least not this year. Can he lead this team to the playoffs in the brutal West? ESPN says they are 14th in the West.
    4. AD -- Best second banana in basketball. Killer offensive game, tremendous defender. May be underrated at 4.
    5. Kawhi -- When he's at his best, 5 seems low. But, that flameout against Denver was... not good. His health is a concern, but he's a remarkably efficient offensive player and he is an unbelievable defender.
    6. KD -- We are gonna find out what a year off with an Achilles injury has done to him. He's in this spot because of what he's been.
    7. Harden -- Average, but high volume 3pt shooter. Killer going to the basket. Really good playmaker. Best skill is drawing fouls and it is infuriating to watch him do that. Gonna burn it all down in Houston and we will see if he comes out looking good or not.
    8. Luka -- Future of the NBA. Most exciting young player since LeBron in my book. Sky's the limit.
    9. Dame -- Killer. Love him. Unlimited range, fierce competitor, extremely smart.
    10. Jokic -- I've seen Towns handle this dude on multiple occasions. But, he was pretty great in the playoffs and he's such a crafty player. Looks like there's no way he should be able to compete in the NBA with that body. But, he's a legitimate all-NBA player.

    1. Jokic and the Nuggets both give me hope and frustrate me. It gives me hope that they have a good team using a big man as the centerpiece. I know Jokic is a better passer but KAT is a better shooter. I really don't think the gap between these two is very big given the right surrounding cast and coaching.

      It frustrates me to know these two teams were at the same point just a couple years ago. Divergent paths.

    2. their list is behind the paywall and I've paid zero attention to it. But these things are fun.

      No disagreement with the ranking of LBJ, although Harden was easily the leader in VORP this past, weird, season, with Giannis second, just ahead of LBJ. Harden and Giannis both had much higher usage rates than LBJ. On Win Shares/48, Giannis led the league and Harden was second. Lebron was 13th.

      Part of the difference between Harden/Giannis and LBJ is free throw rates. Both Harden and Giannis generated over 1 FTA for every 2 FGA, whereas Lebron was way down at 1 FTA for every 3.4 FGA (his lowest rate of his career). This might be a signal about where Lebron is in his career arc. He's entering his age-36 season and has a lot of hard miles on him from the heavy burden he has carried his whole career. Consistent with that, he had a career high share of FGA from 3pt range, by some margin, and a career high in assists per 100 possessions, by a wide margin. Dude is still amazing.

      Everyone else is still at a different level from LBJ, which makes the specific rankings hard to sell with confidence. By the numbers, Harden and Giannis were in the discussion for best player, but I can't do that yet. That said, Harden is probably the most difficult to stop player in the league, even as I hate watching him. Giannis is a physical freak, but still has a long ways to go in his game. Which is both a criticism and a "wow, he's great but still can be far greater" statement.

      Kawhi and KD are the two biggest question marks for me on this list. Kawhi, because it remains to be seen whether he has the force of will to overcome the Clippers' long legacy of organizational dysfunction. KD for the obvious reasons.

      It's interesting to me how far Kyrie has fallen that he's not on SBG's top-ten list. Hard to say how his game will recover in light of shoulder surgery. I know from experience that shoulder problems make it pretty hard to shoot.

      I also find it interesting that Joel Embiid doesn't rise to the top ten. I presume he was somewhere in ESPN's second ten. He's a guy who can be an absolutely dominating low-post player, and with very, very, very similar numbers across the board to AD.

  7. I'm hoping for clear skies through the evening, I haven't seen the northern lights for many moons and we have a good chance of getting some tonight.

    2. They're saying the 10th, but of course that's one a few hours away.

      Take a gander at the nearing conjunction while you're at it; they're both easily within a single binocular view currently.

      1. I was just out looking at that. They're still low on the horizon in the southwest but I can see them through the trees.

  8. Better late than never?

    1. I loved me some Johan, but 2000s Koufax?

      Let's check the numbers.
      Both Koufax and Johan bounced back and forth between bullpen and starting through their age-24 seasons. In Koufax's case, 11 of his 37 age-24 appearances were in relief. He led the league in K/9 but had only a 101 ERA+ and an under 2.0 K:BB ratio. In Johan's case, 27 of his 45 age-24 appearances were out of the bullpen. He didn't lead the league in anything, but had a very impressive 148 ERA+ (backing up a 150 the year before) and 3.60 K:BB ratio.

      The Left Arm of God emerged in his age-25 season. For the remainder of his career, he was ridiculous. 156 ERA+ in a pitching-dominant era, 2.16 FIP, 116 HRs (0.6/9innings) 9.6 K/9 and 4.16 K:BB over 1,632.2 innings.
      Johan age-25 through age-31: 151 ERA+, 3.32 FIP, 162 HRs (1.0/9innings), 8.8 K/9 and 4.09 K:BB over 1,512.1 innings. Dropping his age-31 season: 154 ERA+, 3.28 FIP, 146 HR (1.0), 9.1 K/9 and 4.35 K:BB over 1,313.1.

      Obviously, Johan was pitching in a much more offensive-dominant era and didn't benefit from pitching in Chavez Ravine, but he actually holds up pretty well in this comparison. Maybe if he had gotten a World Series win, he'd be in the HoF too.

      1. One of the points in the article is that pitchers are underrepresented in the Hall, and I think I'd tend to agree. Most positions have around 20 inductees at this point--catcher and third base are underrepresented, and right field is arguably overrepresented. There are only 65 starting pitchers in the Hall--given that for most of the last 100 years teams had a 4-man rotation, I'd say it makes more sense to be around 80 starting pitchers than to be at 65.

        Santana is 81st in SP JAWS, so I'd say he's borderline even if you correct the low number of pitchers in the Hall. And pitchers from that era definitely get hosed from a counting stats perspective given that they pitched in an offensively-dominated era.

        Also, I see that Santana has a higher JAWS than Koufax.

        If you were to go primarily by JAWS and went from 65 to 81 pitchers, you'd have:

        IN: Clemens (102.6!), Schilling (64.1), Tommy Bond (61.8), Verlander (60.9), Charlie Buffinton (60.4), Greinke (60.2), Kershaw (59.7), Tony Mullane (58.3), Bob Caruthers, Wes Ferrell, Rick Reuschel, Kevin Brown, Jim Whitney, Max Scherzer, Luis Tiant, David Cone, Bobby Mathews, Urban Shocker, Eddie Cicotte (Black Sox), Bret Saberhagen, CC Sabathia (50.9), Dave Stieb, Silver King, George Uhle, Theodore Breitenstein, Keven Appier, Chuck Finley, Cole Hamels, Johan Santana (48.3).

        OUT: Jesse Haines (27.3, VC), Rube Marquard (31.3, VC), Candy Cummings (inducted as pioneer/executive -- could move him out of SP into executive), Lefty Gomez (37.3, VC), Catfish Hunter (should be considered more as RP, IMO), Jack Morris (38.0, VC), Chief Bender (VC), Herb Pennock (41.3), Jack Chesbro (Old Timer's committee), Addie Joss (VC), Bob Lemon (missed age 22-24 seasons for military service -- potential legitimate mitigating factor), Waite Hoyt (VC), Eppa Rixey (VC), Dizzy Dean (45.0 -- really only played 6 full seasons), Whitey Ford (45.8 -- missed age 22-23 seasons for military service after age 21 ROY), Burleigh Grimes (46.0, VC), Koufax (47.4).

        So mostly you'd be removing VC/Old Timers' selections. If you want to leave out Clemens/Schilling/Cicotte for reasons, then I'd replace them with Koufax, Ford, and Lemon for reasons.

        Your new bubble would be Bucky Walters, Orel Hershieser, Tim Hudson, Tommy John, Wilbur Wood, Wilbur Cooper, and Frank Tanana. Followed closely by Buehrle and Pettitte.

        Honestly, that all seems pretty reasonable to me and I don't see it as an especially "big Hall" position either when your bubble guys are multiple Cy Young winners like Santana and Koufax.

          2. I'm bigger on a player's peak than longevity. I know JAWS adjusts for that, somewhat, but Santana's peak could go head-to-head with just about anyone's.

            I think part of it is whether you look at injuries as luck or skill. I tend towards luck.

        2. If Santana was placed in the rotation earlier in 2003, that gives him an extra win or two for that season. It's his seventh best season according to rWAR, so every additional win will be double counted in JAWS. Give him one more win in 2003, going from 4.1 rWAR to 5.1 and his JAWS goes from 48.3 to 49.3, bumping him to 77th. If you instead think he could have reached 6 rWAR that year, possibly a stretch, that bumps his JAWS to 50.3 and places him in a tie with Don Sutton at 73rd.

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