42 thoughts on “February 9, 2021: But For The First”

  1. Thinking about MLB's plan to deaden the baseball this season and have a pretty dim view on how it might play out. It isn't going to do anything to decrease strikeouts, so unless hitters make pretty big adjustments we'll just have more fly outs in the place of home runs.

    Vince Coleman isn't walking through that door.

    2. I totally agree. Just straight up "deadening the ball", without doing anything else to facilitate offense seems like it will be a disaster. I don't know if you have to lower the mound or what, but this isn't fixing anything.

      If they ban the shift, I'm going to be pissed.

      1. I love me some shifting.

        This all feels so Manfred-regime. Just a fundamental misunderstanding/dislike of the game.

        1. Good thing they hired someone else to figure out how to fix the game instead of Manfred. I don't know if Epstein will be good at it, but he won't be Manfred-bad.

    4. I like the goal, but I don't know that this gets us there. At the risk of sounding like an old man (which, of course, I am), I think the game was better when we had more balls in play, more stolen bases, more hit-and-runs, rather than everybody trying to hit the ball over the fence. The problem, as you point out, is that batters and teams may not make the adjustments necessary to do that just because the ball is less lively. I've been waiting for a few years now for batters to adjust to shifts, and while a few have many have not. Given that experience, I'm skeptical that they'll adjust to this, either.

      1. I think the lower leg kicks, natural grass, and more home runs all killed the running game. I'd like them to figure out a way to bring it back.

      2. I agree that more balls in play is more enjoyable, but I don't attribute the lower numbers to "trying to hit the ball over the fence". That is already a response to dramatically improved pitching. Pitching has so consistently improved that the adjustment has to come there. Anything else is trying to adjust the part that isn't broken.

        1. I think most of the new ballparks having shorter fences also influences it. It's easier to hit a home run down the line in NY than it is a single.

          1. Certainly that contributes to the increase in HRs, but has nothing to do with the number of balls in play.

              1. I disagree with this premise. I don't think swinging for the fences necessarily contributes much to lack of balls in play. Plenty of players throughout history swung for the fences and put balls in play.

                This was my whole point at the outset - lack of balls in play is a product of pitching advances. To the extent that "we must hit more HRs" became a thing, it only did so after putting the ball in play got so much harder.

                1. I disagree. A batter's approach definitely affects balls in play and that approach is different than it used to be.

                2. While plenty of players throughout history have, indeed swung for the fences, it used to be standard operating procedure that you shortened up with two strikes and tried to make contact. Very few batters do that any more.

                  I certainly agree that pitching advances are a part of the equation. I just don't think they're the sole factor.

                  1. I don't think I ever said it was the sole factor. Yes, it has an impact, and yes it is different than it used to be.

                    But my position is that pitching advances have had a bigger impact on the game, and therefore focusing a response on the batters is going to be less effective than focusing that response on pitchers.

                    I'm not sure how to show a table, but if you compare 1987 and 2019, you'll find some interesting numbers. The ones I find most compelling are that hits per game only dropped from 9.00 in '87 to 8.65 in 2019, with HR rising from 1.06 to 1.39. Those are significant, but not all that outlandishly different. You know what is? K's and # of pitchers used. 5.96 K/Game in '87 to 8.81 in '19. And from 426 pitchers in baseball in '87 to 831 in '2019.

                    That's the story. More pitchers = more K's. Better pitcher usage = more K's. More K's is fewer balls in play.

                    Throw in even more recent developments in defensive shifts and pitch tunneling info, and you've got a 30 year improvement in pitching where putting the ball in play is way more difficult, and hitting it over the fence is therefore way more valuable.

                    So yes, they try to hit it out more. But that's the response to the biggest development in baseball, which was pitching.

      3. I think most people appreciate variety. Imagine if every football play was a sack or a hail mary. I would love to get back to 80's baseball as well. 1987 was perfect. Still lots of stolen bases, but still plenty of homers for those who like them, and not too many strikeouts.

        1. Basketball has a similar problem--the analytics have made it clear which shots are worth taking and that's mostly eliminated the mid-range jump shot. Teams are shooting 3s or from the paint, not much variety across the league.

  6. Just signed a furniture purchase agreement that is higher than the cost of the first house I purchased. It's getting real, real fast!

  7. My snowblower (Ahrens) is making a popping sound occasionally (but frequently). My neighbor's does the same thing. Both seem to run fine, starts on the first pull - fresh gas - Regular (87).

    Have had it for 10+ years now and have never done any maintenance other than running the gas out before I put it away in the spring.

    Thots?

    2. Start with a new spark plug. If that doesn’t fix it you could have worn valves that aren’t seating fully and cause little backfires.

      1. Never good when you're watching the national news and are like "That's my Culvers in the background"

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