The World Series is over. Teams have extended qualifying offers to their upcoming free agents, who must determine whether to accept a one-year, $18.4 million contract and remain with their most recent club, or to decline and seek other opportunities on the open market. The deadline for those decisions is Wednesday, 17 November.
The Twins have a lot of work to do to turn around a disastrous year in which they plummeted down the elevator shaft from roof to basement, traded away key players, and Let (Some of) the Kids Play (Until Some of the Kids Got Hurt). Rather than celebrating the 30th anniversary of the 1991 World Series Champions with a deep run into the postseason, the Twins are in the position to ponder the success of the Twins’ front office over the 1990–1991 offseason. Will the current front office attempt a similar worst-to-first turnaround, or do they see a return to sustainable contention taking a season (or more) to develop? The futures of several key Twins regulars are up in the air until their approach becomes clear.
We’ll know their answer in due time. For now, we can posit our own.
A few handy, non-paywalled reference materials:
- Twins Depth Chart [FanGraphs]
- Twins Payroll [FanGraphs]
- How Can The Twins Rebound From A Disastrous 2021 Season? [MLB Trade Rumors]
- 2021–2022 MLB Free Agent List [MLB Trade Rumors]
- Top 50 Free Agents [FanGraphs]
- 2021–22 Top 50 Free Agents with Predictions [MLB Trade Rumors]
- Early Qualifying Offer Decisions [MLB Trade Rumors]
- Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Forfeit by Signing a Qualified Free Agent [MLB Trade Rumors]
- Free Agent Tracker [FanGraphs]
- Trade Simulator [Baseball Trade Values]
Uffda. Just uffda.
Byron Buxton’s future with the Twins remains in limbo as team gauges trade interest, potential extension offers | The Athletic
Doing their best to prepare the fanbase when Buxton is traded.
Can you think of a player that was injured a lot in early years and then went on to have a great career? I thought Paul Molitor might be a good comp but even he had nearly twice the PA of Buxton in age 23-27.
https://stathead.com/tiny/fxh0y
David Ortiz had 536 PA more than Buxton over that same age span; Ortiz’ age 27 season was his first in Boston and the first time he broke 500 PA. I remain skeptical that his sudden health in Boston was the product of luck or a better medical staff.
A friend of mine used to work in the Twins' front office. He said he talked to TR about Ortiz having all that success with Boston. My friend asked whether it was changing his hitting approach. TR replied, "Either that or he started using steroids."
My friend said that TR has a really dry sense of humor so he couldn't really tell if it was a joke or a jab.
466 PAs in 125 games in 2002 and 509 PAs in 128 games in 2003. If you add in his MiLB stats, he topped 500 PAs in 1997 and 1999. In 1997 he topped 150 games and 600 PAs. He appeared in 140 games across all levels and fell just shy of 600 PAs at 588.
With Buxton’s presence a certainty for the next seven seasons, I’d like to see the front office immediately refocus and get moving on their rotation and shortstop vacancies. Buxton’s deal gives them plenty of room in the club’s (self-assigned, artificial) budget, particularly in the first season. Given their in-between roster, spending on quality free agents is preferable to trading prospects. Who wouldn't want to pitch with Buxton behind them in the outfield for the next seven years (provided the compensation offered was competitive)? That said, they may not have a choice with their prospects if they want to quickly assemble a postseason-caliber rotation for 2022.
If they do, a pillow contract with Story also makes plenty of sense. He needs a productive year away from Denver to reestablish his marquee status, Target Field is a decent environment for right-handed pop, and he doesn’t block Martin and Lewis if one of them looks viable at the position after an extended audition in St. Paul. It’d be a shame to burn a draft pick in a short deal with a qualifying offer recipient, but the rest of it makes sense on both sides.
Signing a shortstop with strong defensive credentials seems like a great way to further entice a premium starter to sign in Minnesota. Robbie Ray had the gaudiest stats of any non-Scherzer starter left, and he’s someone I had hoped they would acquire back when he was in Arizona. That said, I’m worried he might not maintain his Cy Young performance level.
Ultimately, I think the Twins need to target the two of the best starters without a qualifying offer attached to them. Marcus Stroman might have less to offer on the high end, but he’s got a longer, more consistent track record of sustained success than Ray has, plus a fairly clean medical history. He’s not an ace, but he’d be a pretty solid second starter. Carlos Rodón has as much upside as anyone left, but his health is an open question. A short, high-AAV or an incentive-heavy deal would be preferable, but the health issues mean he isn’t a guy you set as the cornerstone of a rotation. Signing Rodón as their primary free agent acquisition would almost certainly mean the Twins need to trade for a starter. I’d prefer Stroman + Rodón over either + pitcher via trade, as the only cost there is money, but I realize that’s a tall order.
The Twins, among many others, are interested in Ray. I doubt they sign him though with so many teams also interested in him.
Ray to the Mariners. 5/$115.
Practically same deal as Gausman. I would take Gausman over Ray.
Adding a new item not specific to the Twins: Rob Manfred’s resignation.