42 thoughts on “November 6, 2023: Just Rolled Into Town”

  1. There were not Arizona Fall League games Saturday. As noted yesterday (thank you hj!) Kala'i Rosario won the home run derby.

    Yesterday was the Fall Star game. The Americans defeated the Nationals 6-3. Rosario was 0-for-1. He was the only Twin to play in the game.

    1. The season is rapidly coming to an end. The regular season ends Thursday. The play-in semifinal is Friday and the league championship is Saturday. Glendale is 12-15, in fifth place, and has been eliminated from the playoffs.

  2. With its usual marketing skill, MLB announced its Gold Glove winners on an NFL Sunday when hardly anyone is going to notice.

    2. I noticed that Mookie Betts was hosed out of a Gold Glove at Utility he should’ve won on degree of difficulty alone.

      What Betts did in 2023 is totally unprecedented, I think. You just don’t see Gold Glove corner outfielders in their 30s suddenly start 70+ games in the middle infield. He handled the assignment pretty well, too: slightly above average at 2b by DRS & UZR/150, one run below average by OAA. Probably a bit below average at short.

      I think Kim Ha-Seong is an excellent infielder, and his flexibility certainly gave the Padres options. But I should be able to expect a good defensive shortstop in his late twenties to continue field his position well after being displaced to second base with occasional assignments at third and short. That’s simply not in the same league as an early thirties outfielder suddenly playing average-or-better middle infield for a team that won 100 games.

  3. Yeah, people around here are pretty excited about Josh Dobbs. It was cool to see him step in under crazy circumstances and help the team pull this one out. However, I remember countless other journeyman QB's over the years coming in and lighting up our local squad. So I am a bit measure in my excitement. I will say it is nice to see a quarterback who can escape the pocket and make something happen when the pass rush breaks down.

    1. I agree. It's more "that was a really cool thing that happened" than it is "we've found our quarterback".

  4. My (gas) water heater is more than ten years old, so I am beginning to plan for replacement.

    I'm very interested in the cost effectiveness of (1) heat pump water heaters and (2) tankless water heaters.

    My challenges: first, I am paying 35 cents/45 cents per kWh for electricity (base rate, tiered rate above the base consumption), which is friggin' expensive. Second, California is banning gas water heater installation after 2029. Gas rates vary seasonally. Low of $1.48/$1.87 per therm, currently $2.06/$2.46 per therm (base rate, tiered rate above the base consumption). Also expensive.

    A gas-fired tankless should last 20-25 years. Higher up front cost than a gas-fired tank (10-15 years), but lower operating costs.

    Our winter monthly gas bills are in the $200-$220 range (last year Dec 16-Jan 17 billing cycle we used 81 therms; heating, stove, water heater). If, say, a third of that was water heating, that translates to about $65-$70 per month. That may be an exaggeration, given the summer costs (below).

    In contrast, our gas bill for 6/16-7/18 was $21.88, of which probably 90 pct was water heating.

    So, we maybe spend $400 per year for heating water currently. A 50 percent improvement in efficiency would be worth maybe $200 per year. I don't think a tankless gas system could get me that much savings?

    And at those electricity rates (where almost all of the marginal use would be at the higher rate tier), I am very skeptical about ever reaching break-even on a HPWH. 😢

    Not that I have done any real calculations....

    I guess I am probably leaning toward a gas-fired tankless system for the longevity, hoping to push off the switch to electric as long as possible. (Yes, I hate the earth!)

    The other thought would be a ducted heat pump HVAC tied into the water heater. We have a split system (gas furnace and electric AC for upstairs and for downstairs, respectively). Spendy, and I don't need to replace either furnace any time soon, so....

    1. When was the AC last replaced? I think you'd want to use a combination HVAC+water heater with a heat pump with the next replacement. We would have gone that way but the water heater failed the year before the AC so we couldn't combine them.

      Hard to make a purely numbers decision based on this data. Heat pumps, especially in CA, will be in the 3x-5x efficiency range the entire time so in terms of energy used, they can't be beat. But, I don't know what the therm to kWh conversion would be.

      It would be convenient if you could customize the heating time to have it at a warmer level during the peak sunlight hours and allow it to be cooler in the evening. Water can be a good energy battery.

      1. I would guess that newer, fancy, electric models can be managed that way fairly easily. Not much need for gas-fired ones to be managed, however.

      2. Downstairs furnace is a Payne PG8JAA (80 AFUE) manufactured in March 2006. AC is an ADP, manufactured in July 2006.

        So I know we could get a much more efficient furnace, but we use it only rarely. It doesn't really seem cost-effective to replace it any time soon.

        We also use the downstairs AC rarely. Downstairs stays pretty reasonable even on the hottest summer days (we basically only use it for a few hours when we have multiple 100+ days in a row, as it rarely gets above 79-80).

    2. Our plumber told us of a (county/state?) program where they gave us a free (or very low cost) 100 gallon tank, so long as they could switch it off during high demand periods (we're all electric in our house). That's not a problem, because 100 gallon tank... Might be worth looking into? Doubt you'd need the 100 gallon, but the idea of cheaply obtaining and shutting down during high demand seem good. The guy installing suggested that tankless were great, except when they break and then they're the worst.

      1. We're part of the power company's peak program where they can switch off the AC during peak loads. They only do it 3 times a summer, and they trigger the smart thermostats to cool before they shut it off - the longest they've kept it off is 3 hrs (typically 2) and they always email the day before to warn us what time period.

        1. I've thought about joining one of those programs with PG&E. Thing is, PG&E. They suck balls.

          They have time-of-day plans I could choose, but the rates are no better than what I am paying now. (Some of that is probably because of grandfathered net metering for rooftop solar, which keeps afternoon retail prices higher than otherwise. The new regime, which just went into effect, incentivizes solar producers to install batteries so they can sell more in the evening during peak demand).

          1. I think we get $25 a year off our electric to be in the program. Not much, but not a burden, either.

            We're in a plan that has lower rates from 9PM to 9AM (I think), so I set the dishwasher to run overnight, as well as the downstairs robovac. We have the EV only charge between 10:30PM and 8:30AM, which is plenty of time to take it from 30% to 80% when we plug it in.

            The upstairs humidifier has been a pain (solenoid keeps getting blocked) so we're replacing with a "passive" one, ie: it doesn't have a fan but instead steals air across the return->supply. Less moving parts and a little less power usage.

      2. I had to replace mine a few years ago and wanted to go tankless, but the plumber I called to quote installation told me he refuses to do tankless in my down because of how hard our water is, so back to a tank. The ok result of that is that I didn't need to hire anyone to install the new one.

        1. Hard water would have been a problem a decade ago, before the city switched from wells to surface water. My brother described our water then as "liquid granite." But river water is much softer.

    3. Doing some numbers.

      $21.88 * 0.9 = $19.69 / $2.06 = 9.56 therms. Rounding that to 9.5 therms = 950,000 BTUs = 1,002,250,000 J. Gas is about 95% efficient so that's 952 MJ of total energy to heat the water (the other 50 MJ was waste heat).

      Converting that to kWh needed by a HPWH. 952 MJ / 3 = 317 MJ input energy needed to heat the water the same amount = 88.1 kWh. So that's $30.84 - $39.65 for the cost of electricity, assuming the HPWH is 300% efficient. Some quick searching around suggests a uniform efficiency factor of 3.0 - 3.5 is expected for 120 V installs. A 240 V water heater looks to be a bit more efficient at 3.8 - 4.1. I originally did the math assuming 4.0 UEF and had monthly costs of $23 - $29.

      We are/were in a historical low for gas prices. So what rises faster: gas or electricity prices.

      1. Thanks, sean.

        Fair point on historical prices for gas. I suspect that as regulatory constraints on installation of natural gas appliances expand, demand in "greener" states may decline, putting downward pressure on retail consumer prices. Or, more likely, upward pressure on electricity rates.

        California already has some of the highest rates in the country. I don't see that improving in the next couple of decades. It will require dramatic declines in the costs of battery systems and further declines in PV prices.

        1. It will require dramatic declines in the costs of battery systems and further declines in PV prices.

          And that is happening now and should continue to happen. Right now, a utility scale solar plant is more cost effective than a gas plant, in no small part because the rest of the grid can act as a battery for the solar plant. I would expect lower demand to temporarily depress prices before they go up due to lower supply. Basically the inverse long-term for solar/PV.

          I found a site that lists the last four years of retail prices and says there's a 5.85% average increase. That said, I found another report that suggests a commercial rate of $0.283 in 2038. Seems unlikely to have sub-1% growth for the next 15 years to reach that.

  5. Craig Counsell to the Cubs, a team that already had a manager.

    2. I'm trying to figure out how Craig Counsell suddenly became such a hot commodity. I mean, he's done a good job with Milwaukee, and I'm not knocking him. But while he's made the playoffs pretty regularly, he hasn't had a ton of postseason success, and really none since 2018. Again, I think he's done a good job, but all of a sudden he's being treated like the second coming of Joe McCarthy, and I just don't get it.

  7. Got a new Statement of Benefits from Blue Shield on my daughter's emergency surgery while on vacation last (2022) October. They have finally paid the rest of the bill. It only took about ten phone calls by me and my daughter to get people to do their jobs.

    Moral 1: American health insurance is a joke
    Moral 2: Don't have secondary insurance.

    3. A friend had an extra work ticket, so I just got home. Some thoughts:
      1. Naz Reid.
      2. I put $2 down on Ant for MVP when I was just in Vegas and feel good about it.
      3. I also put $2 down on Jaden for DPOY and feel good about it.
      4. No one in New England can ever insult soccer players for diving again. What a bunch of floppers.
      5. On the one hand, Rudy make your free throws. On the other, Boston doesn't shoot so poorly without him clogging the middle.
      6. Best Wolves atmosphere I've ever experienced.
      7. Aaaaaaawooooohhh!

      2. I watched most of the first half, but then a couple things happened that cause me to not really watch much of the rest. First, the edible kicked in. Second, I stopped watching when it seemed like the wheels were getting ready to fall off, but occasionally checked the score. Every time it looked like I was wrong about the wheels, I'd flip it on and it would go from like a 3 point deficit to 9 points in the span of thirty seconds. Maybe I'll stick with games longer after the result of this one.

        But that brings me to another point inspired by your #4 point. One reason I bailed in the second was because the officiating was so bad. Maybe this win will change things, but the NBA has a massive problem on their hands. This is most evident when watching KAT, who gets maybe the worst whistle in the history of the league. Like, getting called for fouls when guys go over his back? the hell is that? I don't know how he gets back into his usual flow of efficient scoring with all that going on. (his teammates could help as well by, I don't know, moving around when he's double teamed). He will based on track record, by I don't understand why the NBA has decided to treat him this way. Also, the Wolves blogosphere is hot garbage.

        Anyway, sorry for that negativity. Ant and Rudy are cool.

        1. The fourth (the one flipped on review) and fifth fouls (the next offensive foul when Holliday went flailing backwards ten yards on minimal contact) on KAT were ridiculous, but I thought the other four (including the rebound you mention) were definitely earned. The fifth foul on Ant and the foul on Jaden that was challenged and upheld were preposterous.

          1. Its nothing short of a miracle they beat what might be the best team in the league and dismantled the reigning champs with the whistles they get.

        2. I disagree on KAT. All his fouls last night were fouls. And he remains a disturbingly-low basketball IQ guy. Sooo many dumb plays.

          Ant went nukular in OT for a couple minutes, making up for a mostly frustrating night of foul trouble (despite his point production).

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