Hope Springs Eternal

There was a discussion the other day on the upcoming Twins seasons and the mood was cautious at best. While certainly a 99-loss season leaves plenty of reason for pessimism, this is still the time for hope for better things for our favorite team. Of course, just getting back to .500 would be a large improvement. So, I thought I would look at what the Twins have done to improve and how this team is looking to start the season.

First off, here's a look at least season's primary starting 9 vs. who we expect to be the starting nine guys in the lineup for Opening Day this year.

C: Drew Butera                  Joe Mauer

1B: Justin Morneau         Chris Parmelee

2B: Alexi Casilla                Alexi Casilla

SS: Tsuyoshi Nishioka   Jamey Carroll

3B: Danny Valencia         Danny Valencia

LF: Delmon Young           Josh Willingham

CF: Ben Revere                  Denard Span

RF: Michael Cuddyer      Ryan Doumit

DH: Jim Thome                  Justin Morneau

Replacing Butera and Nishi with actual major league players are both big steps forward and I feel like the Twins adequately replaced any real losses from last year, essentially replacing Cuddyer and Thome with Willingham and Doumit, who give the Twins better roster flexibility. That lineup looks very deep and could provide a lot of big innings. Now here's the expected bench:

Revere

Hughes

Plouffe

Burroughs

This may be the best bench the Twins have had in quite some time. It is the first time I can remember the Twins have gone without a quintessential utility infielder (ala Denny Hocking or Nick Punto). Of course, it could be argued that the Twins start two utility infielders in their middle infield, but that is why it is a good idea to go with more offense on the bench. Revere will be an ideal pinch runner/defensive replacement for both Willingham and Doumit (or other possible RFs, such as Plouffe or Parmelee). Hughes and Plouffe provide right-handed pop off the bench for a team with a lefty-heavy starting lineup. Burroughs provides an experienced left-handed pinch hitter for Carroll or even Casilla or Valencia and a left-handed backup to Valencia. The lineup provides some great options for when facing pitchers with large platoon splits:

vs. Lefty                    vs. Righty

Span CF                     Span CF
Carroll SS                 Carroll SS
Mauer C                     Mauer C
Willingham LF        Mourneau DH
Doumit DH               Doumit RF
Valencia 3B              Parmelee 1B
Plouffe RF                 Burroughs 3B
Hughes 1B                  Casilla 2B
Casilla 2B                   Revere LF

I think there's plenty of reason to be optimistic about the offense, with the key being the health of Span, Mauer and Morneau, but I think the biggest concern for Twins fans are about the pitching staff. But I think there is reason to be optimistic there. First of all, the starting staff is primarily unchanged from the 94-win 2010 team, with Jason Marquis replacing Kevin Slowey. The key will be Liriano getting back to 2010 form and Scott Baker staying healthy. Liriano has been brilliant this spring with excellent control and more strikeouts than innings pitched. Baker had a sore elbow slow him and will start the season on the DL for a week or so, but he did the same in 2010 and ended up pitching over 170 innings. If Liriano is your No. 1 and Baker is No. 2 and you have innings eaters like Pavano and Marquis at the back of the rotation then you should do pretty well, especially if you have an offense to support them.

The bullpen was unquestionably the biggest problem in 2011. The good news is that only Glen Perkins, one of the few highlights for the Twins, Matt Capps and the durable and flexible Anthony Swarzak return. Alex Burnett might return as well, but that is looking less and less likely (thankfully). Duensing has returned to the role he excelled in in 2010, so the Twins have an experienced (and hopefully reliable) closer and a top setup man along with a solid lefty and swing man. The questions remain with the rest, but Matt Maloney has been great this spring and Jared Burton has been solid and both have major league experience. The best reason for optimism is the Twins have specialized in making a good bullpen out of a lot of question marks. Hopefully, they'll continue to evaluate bullpen options on results instead of radar guns.

With so many health questions, the Plan Bs for each position is very important for this team. The biggest improvement in this area was signing Doumit to be Mauer's backup, giving the Twins a guy who would not only be far better than Butera, but better than the average catcher. J.R. Towles has hit well this spring and the former top prospect could be a solid backup catcher if needed. Morneau is another big question. The Twins already have Parmelee at first, and of course anyone can DH. If Morneau does go down, Doumit can be the primary DH, which is what he originally was signed to be, and Plouffe and Revere can share time in RF. Span is another concern, but Revere has shown himself to be a brilliant CF and Joe Benson is another option in AAA.  The middle infield depth another health concern since Carroll is 38 and Casilla has never lasted through an entire season as a starter, but Brian Dozier has had a great spring and most reports have him the Twins' best defensive shortstop right now. My guess is he would be the starter for the Twins if Terry Ryan hadn't already promised that job to Carroll when he signed him this offseason. If either starter in the middle infield goes down, the other would play second and Dozier would most likely be called up to play shortstop. Luke Hughes is another option to play second base with the other starter playing shortstop. Even if Valencia goes down, the Twins could platoon Burroughs and Hughes there.

The pitching depth is more of a concern, but Liam Hendricks looks ready to be a solid major league starter and may even be an improvement over Marquis or Blackburn. Anthony Swarzak also could be a decent fifth starter if needed. Kyle Waldrop and Carlos Gutierrez provide hope for bullpen help this summer, although Waldrop will start the season on the DL with arm problems. Of course, the Twins provded in 2010 that its not difficult to find middle relief help during the season.

The reality is, the Twins won't be able to replace Mauer or Morneau, so a lot of the team's success hinges on their health. But the good news is both appear to be healthy at this point. Mauer is playing like pretty much every other year but 2011 and Morneau is finally hitting after an awful start to spring training. I think both are as healthy as they are going to get. I don't think they'll wear down, however the concern with Morneau is how much of a hit or jolt can he take before his concussion symptoms return. If he can play at least two-thirds of the season for the first time in three seasons, the Twins chances for a return to respectability will be greatly improved.

8 thoughts on “Hope Springs Eternal”

  1. and may even can't help but be an improvement over Marquis or Blackburn
    FTFY

    I'm not sure it's fair to compare l(e)ast year's primary starting nine with this year's Opening Day lineup. You should be comparing apples to apples, either both years' Opening Day rosters, or the (expected) primary starting nine (good luck with that).

    Time to post a poll on the WGOM homepage:
    More:
    A) HRs by Morneau
    B) HRs Allowed by Capps
    C) tie

    1. I'm not sure it's fair to compare l(e)ast year's primary starting nine with this year's Opening Day lineup.

      Your starting nine on Opening Day are the ones you expect to play the most and I'm comparing them to the ones that actually did play the most last year. I probably should have mentioned Kubel in there since he did play a lot, just not enough at one position.

  2. The great thing about this time of year is that hope really does spring eternal. We can dream of Liriano becoming the ace that he is every once in a while. We can call the Twins' bench "the best bench the Twins have had in quite some time" without thinking about what faint praise that is. We can believe that Chris Parmelee is a rookie of the year candidate.

    And who knows? It all might happen. This could be the year when everything goes the Twins' way. As Joaquin Andujar told us, youneverknow. That's what makes this time of year so great.

  3. I was really excited about the possibility of Revere playing LF on a regular basis, but the way the roster shook out, I think the offensive gains more than outweigh the defensive loss from putting Revere on the bench.
    Having Willingham/Doumit/Parmalee replace Cuddyer/Young/Butera is a net positive going into the season, and I'm looking forward to all the pinch-running, position-switching fun Gardy is going to have with such a flexible roster.
    I'm still not sold on the starting pitching, but the bullpen this spring has looked considerably better than it did last year.
    I see an 80-win season as being a possibility at this point, as long as the injuries don't start piling up.

      1. Heh, that's true, but didn't the Twins use the DL more than any other team last year? I hope that it was just poor luck, but I don't have any confidence that Gardy's new hands-off approach is going to keep the players any healthier.

        1. One thing that rarely gets mentioned is how often the Twins were down one or two or even three players on the bench because they weren't healthy enough to play but not hurt enough to DL. When you do that consistently, that really hurts your chances to win a close game.

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