Apparently, as punishment for missing last Tuesday's game log, I have to write about Pelfrey (again!) and the Miami Marlins. But in a fun twist, I get to talk about a whole series all on the same day.
Game 16:
Kevin "Suck it Aaron" Correia (1-1, 2.95 ERA) vs. Ricky Nolasco (0-2, 3.86 ERA)
I'm realistic enough to know that Correia probably won't keep up this pace all season. But if you're going to have some surprising success as a pitcher, Miami is a pretty good team to have to face to keep doing it, with their league low 43 runs scored. Even Kevin Slowey can't win with an offense like Miami's behind him.
Game 17:
Mike "Winner" Pelfrey (2-1, 7.30 ERA) vs. Jose Fernandez (0-1, 3.60 ERA)
A quick perusal of Fangraphs tells me Jose Fernandez is pitching pretty freekin good so far this year, with lots of strikeouts (over 10 K/9). Since it'll be frickin cold at the Bullseye tonight, and the umps will have already spent three-ish hours in the cold earlier, I'm setting the over under on strikeouts for Fernandez at 26.5.
Mike Pelfrey, on the other hand, sucks at the whole "striking guys out" thing. But with the potential cold strike zone, maybe he'll get his first career K tonight.
Pelfrey does excel at something: waiting. That could complicate him getting a strikeout.
It seems counter-intuitive to me that he's been slow when the weather's been cold. I get sluggish when it's hot out, not when it's brisk and chilly.
Maybe the joints froze and need to be worked at a bit.
The Marlins switched the SP, so Fernandez in Game 1 and Nolasco in Game 2.
Lineups for Game 1
MARLINS
Pierre LF
Polanco 3B
Stanton RF
Dobbs DH
Ruggiano CF
Mahoney 1B
Olivo C
Green SS
Solano 2B
Fernandez P
TWINS
Dozier 2B
Mauer C
Willingham LF
Morneau 1B
Parmelee RF
Plouffe 3B
Arcia DH
Hicks CF
Florimon SS
Correia P
I'll take the under. But I thought about it for a while.
Day time baseball with MLB.tv is the best!
there goes the no hitter
FREAKIN' DOUBLE PLAY -- CHOKE ON IT, REDDOG!!
Damnit Dozier!!!!!!
triples are sexy
Some fine baserunning there, Dozer.
Somewhat liberal strike zone there.
Well that is one way to score a run from a lead off triple.......
SS lost an edge while
skatingfieldingBert just said that the owners called up Redmond and demanded the pitching assignments be changed so thats why Fernandez is pitching the early game.
wow
Did he say why?
no. Bert went on to say Redmond was pretty mad about it.
I havent seen any beat writer mention this. I would think that this would be a story
Putting another pitcher in the shop window?
Walkin' (non-hittin') Man
coming into the game, Hicks slash line was .059/.200/.059/.259
crazy
Nice to see Hicks take a walk, but it would be nice to see him take an aggressive swing now and again when he's ahead in the count, instead of taking two strikes like he just did.
A walk and a balk is just as good as a double!
gift balk
edit: oh, he picked up the wrong leg
Going into today, the Twins have as many games played as the Marlins have losses. That made me smile when I saw today's game in the schedule.
I balls the Twins so much. Also daytime baseball. WHERE ARE THESE K's COMING FROM KC?
He must be cheating. But I'm not complaining.
I was going to blame the Marlins, but they actually make contact pretty well. At least, better than average in the NL. However, they have a team OPS of .557, which is last in the NL and .107 behind the next to last team, the Padres. Wow, that is bad.
All the snow on the batter's eye is making it hard to pick up the pitch.
"I am KC and I approve this message."
Knoblauch 2!
Good sacrifice by Mauer there.
bloop, almost blast, just out of the reach
2-1 fish
That was fast.
And that was even faster! Woo-hoo Arcia!
ARCIA'D!!!
ARRRRCIIIIIAAAAAA
Run per pitch - thats a good ratio.
CRUSHED.
Nice hit, rookie.
HAHAHAHA lets see if he's asked to bunt here . . . HOME RUN!!!!!!
Awesome!
The Marlins aren't allowed to win.
OSWALDO!
wow, four straight uno's before Florimon starts taking pitches
That included Hicks, so that must have been a team adjustment. If so, that was great coaching.
Dozier for the cycle before this game is over - Im calling it.
That was a power hitter's swing. It'll be interesting to see that in minnesota.
401 ft seems too short for that homer.
It was too high.
It was just right. Might as well run the gammet.
Holy moley that Arcia homer was crushed. That thing landed in JI JIM territory.
That's what I thought when I saw where that landed. Boy oh boy. Can we send Chicky Chicky Parm Parm back to AAA and keep Oswaldo?
It would be difficult to justify sending down a guy with a .360 on-base average.
Trade him for a Proven Closer!
BS isn't in charge anymore.
that's what I keep saying.
Korreia?!
Any word on why Fernandez was pulled? Not that I'm complaining.
Loria changed his mind?
twins owners demanded it?
Radio guys say they pull him after 5 innings every game.
It's probably a pitch count not an inning thing. He went six innings in one game, but threw just 85 pitches.
JP can't even make it from LF to SS
wow.
I'm surprised nobody has gone here yet. Change that cane to a bat, somebody. Where's Oswaldo?
Oh great, we can't do that one now.
whut whut?
Anyone watching this one? Does Pelfrey look like he's talking a long time between pitches?
Probably, but it would only be warmup pitches at this point.
Crap. The one guy you don't want up as the go-ahead run.
Burton agreed.
outs would be awesome
That could have been a lot worse. Probably means Burton won't be available for Game 2, though.
Kind of would have liked to see Correia back out there for the eighth.
//Bert
I was kind of surprised he wasn't, however Gardy tried to let him pitch the eighth against the Royals and he gave up a couple runs without getting an out.
True. Against most teams I wouldn't have liked to see it. But against the Marlins in the first game of a double header with less than 90 pitches... I'd have like to see it.
That was tense.
Exhale.
I love how fast Perkins is working
That'll do.
5 in a row.
Twins would have to lose their next 16 games to match their record from last year.
I hope they don't though. FWIW.
I'm starting a petition for 300 game seasons. Double headers every day.
In the old, pre-MLB in California, Pacific Coast League days, they used to play about 200-220 games a season. I'd be in favor of that.
I would be okay with a roof if that were the case.
Kevin Correia, xFIP by year:
4.14 -- 2009
4.06 -- 2010
4.38 -- 2011
4.34 -- 2012
4.10 -- 2013 (4 GS)
It's SSS so far this year, but Correia's peripherals are, overall, essentially in line with the last four seasons when he's been a perfectly mediocre pitcher. He'll likely regress some (and with an ERA better than his xFIP, he's allowed fewer runs than you might otherwise expect), but barring injury, I don't think he's going to completely fall off the face of the planet.
Obviously there is some lesson here about how the Twins have drastically overvalued Correia. Or something.
Well, one-fourth of his starts have been against a historically bad offense and three-fourths of his starts have come at home.
I suppose one-fourth of his starts from 2009-2012 were against historically bad offenses, too. I just don't see any evidence for why I should believe Correia is suddenly going to be a terrible pitcher when he's been perfectly serviceable the last four years and has looked serviceable so far this year as well.
He's pitched well enough to go 7 innings in all four of his starts; we'll take it.
I fully agree. He won't be this good all year, and he'll probably have a few starts where he doesn't do well at all, but overall I expect him to be the same pitcher he's always been.
Maybe he'll keep this up to make up for Marquis.
Free agents are more of a crapshoot than I think is commonly acknowledged. Sometimes you get a JI JIM THOME and sometimes you get a RonDL.
That would be an interesting study to see if players that change teams have more variance in performance than those with the same teams. Plus, if it makes a difference if they were traded or went as free agents. Hopefully, the study could be adjusted for park effects and league differences.
I don't know about variance, but the rest has been done. Players that switch teams tend to under-perform projections compared to non-team switchers (i.e. players that sign with the same team).
Players that are traded have a similar effect. I do not recall the controls on that, but I recall it studying prospects.
If mediocrity gets run support, it gets less and less mediocre.
He's been worth an average of 0.625 fWAR the past four years. That's something like worth $2.7 million. On a $10M/2yr contract that seems definitively overvalued to me. If it was 1yr/$5M, okay, that's fine, but giving overvalued contracts for multiple years to pitchers that mediocre who are over 30 is not exactly the height of "reasonable".
It's not about just Correia, but it shows a weakness of decision process. The only reason people talked about Correia over and over again was because the Twins did literally almost nothing else of note for the major league team this offseason, and in the process cut another huge chunk of payroll, which is also something I find absolutely worth criticizing.
*yawn* ho hum. Another win.
The Twins have gone 10 days since they last lost. They haven't gone this long without a loss during a season since June 11 through June 21 in 2011. That included an eight-game winning streak.
According to Atteberry, the youngest Twin ever to hit a home run was Paul Ratliff. I would've guessed a long time before coming up with that name.
I have his '71 Topps baseball card; I had no idea he had played so early in the '60s as well.
Ratliff got 24 PAs in 1963 at age 19 and then didn't get back up until age 26. I think I've heard of cases where players had to be in the majors for the team to keep the player's rights in the years before the draft. This must have been one of those cases because he did nothing in the minors to justify being called up. He was awful at AA.
"Bonus Babies" had to go straight to the majors, is that what you're thinking of?
Probably, although Ratliff started in the minors. I would like to know his story as to why he was brought up and then had to wait seven more years before getting back. Well, his numbers indicate why he it took so long to get back, but not why he got called up in the first place.
I didn't think they had Bonus Babies as late as '63, though. I remember him playing (as little as he did) in the early '70s, along with catchers Phil Roof and George Mitterwald.
Wikipedia tells me that Catfish Hunter was the last Bonus Baby, debuting in 1965, though as socal pointed out, Ratliff wasn't one, since he started in Class D ball.
Ratliff went .287/.421/.575 in Class D as an 18-year-old, and the Twins put him on the Opening Day roster. Jerry Zimmerman doesn't have an appearance for the Twins until April 26th, so he was probably injured to start the season and the Twins were impressed enough with Ratliff that they were willing to let him warm the bench for Earl Battey until Zimmerman was healthy. Kind of interesting to see that Battey started 142 games that year but only finished 117.
And FWIW:
.252/.325/.359 -- Sally League, 1963
.242/.289/.341 -- Ratliff @ Charlotte, 1963
Ratliff was basically a league average hitter and spent all his time in the field as a catcher. Looks like an above-average player for the league.
if you look at his game log for 1963, he appeared in only 10 games -- 3 as a PH.
4-14 PH in the 7th
4-16 entered in the 10th and finished the game as C
4-17 complete game at C
4-20 PH in the 9th
4-21 complete game at C in game 2 of double header
5-01 PH in the 8th
5-19 entered in the 5th and finished game at C, 2nd of double header
and then three appearances in September
9-19 started at C; removed for PH in 9th
9-21 entered in 6th and finished game as C, 2nd of double header
9-24 complete game at C
Ratliff had a .190/.292/.381 line in 24 PA, with all of his time in the field at catcher. Below the Mendoza line, above the Butera line.
Heh, I believe I had many bad things to say about Ramon Ortiz back then, though I'd guess that in my youthful exuberance I was probably too hard on him.
Ortiz xFIP by year:
5.25 -- 2003
4.74 -- 2004
4.67 -- 2005
5.29 -- 2006
4.64 -- 2007 (w/Twins, excluding Rockies)
His 4.64 xFIP includes his bullpen work with the Twins, but I'm too lazy to split it into starting/relieving.
Still makes Correia's numbers look better.
Yep. *crosses fingers*
second game on FSN+
soo yeah, there is a good chance I will not get to watch this game because Comcast and FSN cant get their act together
Only slightly better for DirecTV. This is the third channel I've seen them use (670/670-1 now). Even better when it's not listed in the guide. Must have been added after I edited the channel listing.
What's the weird rumor about the Twins playing a game in Minnesota today? What's this weirder rumor about them playing two? What's this weirdest rumor about them being only half a game out of first this late in the season?
Pelfrey checks second. Checks third. Checks home. Checks his slow cooker. Ponders Life, the Universe and Everything. Throws home.
Throws home? You sure he doesn't shake off the catcher or take a trip around the mound first?
Only when he's taking his time.
Pelfrey kind of sucks.
I just got here, but I think I'd like to see Pelfrey go the way of Marquis and find someone else to take his spot.
Sounds like a plan to me.
Swarzak can pitch the next six, right?
Swizzlestick could pitch the next 60.
I think that's honestly the plan for all Pelfrey starts.
Bring back Butters!
No lefties in the Miami pen?
I'd blame Casilla for that first inning, but it almost seems like it's bordering on cliche at this point.
Really, Pelfry is a better option than Hendricks at this point?
Short answer, no.
No long answer.
At least Hendriks leaves it up faster.
This sideline reporter who is not Marney sounds an awful lot like Marney. No word yet about the size of her butt.
Step 1: Let first two hitters get on base.
Step 2: ???
Step 3: Profit.
Step two is at the very least "let a third batter get on base."
You're missing the point. The important part is step 3.
I'll go ahead and say it. I don't like watching Pelfrey pitch for the Twins.
Watching Pelfrey is like Chinese water torture.
start warming up Swizzlesticks
Hernandez? I was just wondering if he was still on the team earlier today.
Wish he would be more like Larry Bernandez.
Strike 3! C'mon ump.
Unless the Twins get a reliever in here very quickly, this does seem like the sort of game that is merciful in its quick desolation of my expectations - merciful enough for me to move on with my evening.
I love it when I sit down to turn on the game and the Twins are down by three runs and the bases are loaded.
Big Pelf sucks.
Only one run scored. It's the best we could have hoped for.
I wasn't aware it was possible to score more than one run with the bases loaded after watching too much Twins baseball.
looks like 350 people made it to the game.
Is Pelfrey trying to pull a Radke?
Radke usually waited until the 7th inning to asplode.
Nah, the classic Radke was to give up 5 in the first and then pitch six or seven scoreless innings.
That was the way I remembered it, too- at least in the regular season.
Gladzleman cajoling about getting ejected from games for being a Bad Boy.
At least they won't be no-hit.
Dare I think Hicks might be turning it around?
He does, somehow, have a .500 OBP in his last 14 PAs.
It's really weirding me out how many pitchers seem content to walk the guy with the sub-.050 batting average.
No snow on the Target Field in Gameday. Be curious to see what's going on in Scandia (heading there tomorrow night).
I ordered some trees from the County. Not sure how I am going to get them into the ground while I am there.
Oliva-esque AB by Dozier. Wear them down...
Excellent plate appearance.
I was going to, in not so many words, say this.
Now that's a walk.
Nice one, BD.
I hear Joe is due.
Indeed he was.
TWINS BASEBALL!!
TWINS BASEBALL.
Twins freaking baseball!
DazzleBall!
TWINS BASEBALL!!!!
All your fubar pitch belongs to us.
Twins baseball!
JMIVGABB
Way to ruin the Mauer grand slam, Nolasco.
THAT's what I'm talking about!11011101!
The Chairman is not pleased that he only got 1 RBI.
I heart me some Mau.
Does that count as Twins baseball??
Maybe in opposite-world.
Embarrassing!
E-UMP.
This sounds suspiciously like robot umps!
It's certainly a case for them.
Robot umps will not be bound by the 3 laws of robotics.
Yeah, that's why we built in the Off Switch. It's right...here.... Umm, where's the Off switch?
*shrugs* Robo Commissioner is still better than Selig.
More Twins Baseball!!!
Them's the breaks. Twins Baseball!
tough call for the 1st base ump.
May I be the first person tonight to say Twins baseball!!!
Only if I can be the second.
As long as you don't read any of the LTE's above this post- sure!
Das Fubar erhöht sich.
These orange unis are distracting.
No taste, no fans and no payroll.
Go Marlins!
Minimalists.
Heck of an inning for Nolasco.
Dick displaying his confusion with how weather works. Hint: the warmest part of the day isn't usually 1 PM.
It is also difficult to appreciate the difference in time zones when you believe the universe revolves around you.
Man, Escobar is fast.
Escobar, WTF?
How come you keep hitting like a beast?
Escobar**3!! Muy bueno!
Giancarlo has a nice looking mask tonight.
Stanton looking a bit cold in right. Wearing the balaclava and has his sleeves pulled over his hands.
Escobar, shortstop of the future!
Escobar is making a bid to become a regular player
I'm lik'in this runner on 3bag and 1 out.
Spookied that.
I... don't think that was in the strike zone.
Couldn't have been higher than ball two, which was a bit above the knees.
Didn't like that at-bat from Hicks- runner on third with one out, he shouldn't be taking a called strike three.
Looked pretty low.
Leathah!
Sweet! I've only missed 14 innings of baseball today. Well, at least I'm here for the rest. If this is the end of the streak, I'll be annoyed.
SwizzleSticks!
Four starts might not constitute total panic mode, but five runs to the Marlins in fewer than five innings might. I knew he wasn't much, but I didn't think he was the next Marquis/Livan/Ortiz.
Career FIP of 4.19. I think it's more due to recovery from Tommy John.
Whether with us or whoever, I hope he rebounds. That shot of him in the dugout running his hands through his hair was a little heartbreaking.
And until he rebounds, I hope DeVries can have his spot in the rotation
Im going to wait until he pitches a game where the temp is more than 32 degrees before tossing him to the scrap heap
It's nice to have a pitcher like Correia who pitches 7 innings an outing so that the bullpen is fresh for a pitcher like Pelfrey
Nice inning, Dozier.
Dozier has made some nice plays at 2nd this year.
"Man is [Dozier] playing the heck out of second base."
The Milkmaid admitted, aloud and everything, that she likes the Miami uniforms.
Do they not do FoxTrax anymore?
Maybe FSN+ can't afford it.
I don't seem to recall them doing it last game, either.
...Can't afford it during day games either. Yeah.
I thought you just meant FSN "plus". So, yeah.
I may have been making up a bit of it.
I hadn't thought of it, but you know, I don't remember seeing it this year.
I have seen it this year at least once.
I've missed a ton of baseball during this win streak. Unfortunate scheduling.
that should be a standard for every baseball broadcast.
but Im not holding my breath for FSN to upgrade baseball broadcasts since they only started to put OBP on the stat line last year
Bring it on, Arcia.
Arcia is in their heads.
More fubar.
The Chairman was heads up to get to second on that play.
I mention Carlos Baerga out of nowhere and Bert mentions him the next day? Huh.
Marlins must have been expecting the infield fly rule to be called.
Classic Baerga-style hitting there.
man o man, a big ol Canadian homer would be awesome right now.
boo
A solid extra base hit by Doumit would be huge here.
Or a flimsy one. Instead a solid groundout.
Any kind of hit with RISP would be okay
right nowheresomeday.So, I have two observations about this game. First, how in the world is it only the bottom of the 6th? Secondly, I'd love it if the Twins stopped stranding runners any time here.
Pelfrey is a slooooooooow pitcher
He's gotta be Betancourt slow. It's agony.
I'll just assume both can be blamed on Pelfrey.
Luckily the Marlins being terrible is just the thing the Twins need to get back into this game!
Hockey Update: Backstrom with a spectacular save with 11 seconds left to preserve a must-win victory over the Kings.
that was one hell of a save.
Is this Hicks' best night as a major leaguer? I think it might be.
Gameday says that first pitch is in.
a hit and a walk for Hicks this game. woot
Escobar is fast.
SuWeet by Agent Smith!
Sweet Carolline!
Parmelee plays that RF wall better than Cuddyer ever did.
Does praise get any fainter than that?
You're better looking than the other KW.
There we go!
There's the "I think he'll be better than Ramon Ortiz" discussion above.
Elvis Presley?
Different spelling. This is Jaime Pressly.
Bad smokestack.
Getting singled to death here.
Pretty embarrassing that the Twins allowed the Marlins to double their runs on the year today.
Brain fart on the basepaths for the Marlins.
Down 3 runs to the Marlins, who have played a terrible game. 2-11 with RISP and 6 LOB. Sigh.
This guy the Marlins have playing shortstop is a butt.
I can't wait until Escobar's bat starts heating up.
Im already scoring this one a loss. Series split is cool and all, but to the hands of the Marlins is boo.
and now another day off Wednesday, yeah thats a big boo too
Provus pronouncing it AR-see-uh. I assumed it rhymed with Garcia (ar-SEE-ah)
We won! We're still on track for 155-7! Wait, we lost? We'll just have to settle for 154-8!
This two games in one day thing is confusing.