2013 Games 16 & 17: An Entire Series in One Day!

Apparently, as punishment for missing last Tuesday's game log, I have to write about Pelfrey (again!) and the Miami Marlins. But in a fun twist, I get to talk about a whole series all on the same day.

Game 16:

Kevin "Suck it Aaron" Correia (1-1, 2.95 ERA) vs. Ricky Nolasco (0-2, 3.86 ERA)

I'm realistic enough to know that Correia probably won't keep up this pace all season. But if you're going to have some surprising success as a pitcher, Miami is a pretty good team to have to face to keep doing it, with their league low 43 runs scored. Even Kevin Slowey can't win with an offense like Miami's behind him.

Game 17:

Mike "Winner" Pelfrey (2-1, 7.30 ERA) vs. Jose Fernandez (0-1, 3.60 ERA)

A quick perusal of Fangraphs tells me Jose Fernandez is pitching pretty freekin good so far this year, with lots of strikeouts (over 10 K/9). Since it'll be frickin cold at the Bullseye tonight, and the umps will have already spent three-ish hours in the cold earlier, I'm setting the over under on strikeouts for Fernandez at 26.5.

Mike Pelfrey, on the other hand, sucks at the whole "striking guys out" thing. But with the potential cold strike zone, maybe he'll get his first career K tonight.

283 thoughts on “2013 Games 16 & 17: An Entire Series in One Day!”

    1. It seems counter-intuitive to me that he's been slow when the weather's been cold. I get sluggish when it's hot out, not when it's brisk and chilly.

  1. The Marlins switched the SP, so Fernandez in Game 1 and Nolasco in Game 2.

    Lineups for Game 1
    Pierre LF
    Polanco 3B
    Stanton RF
    Dobbs DH
    Ruggiano CF
    Mahoney 1B
    Olivo C
    Green SS
    Solano 2B
    Fernandez P

    Dozier 2B
    Mauer C
    Willingham LF
    Morneau 1B
    Parmelee RF
    Plouffe 3B
    Arcia DH
    Hicks CF
    Florimon SS
    Correia P

  2. Bert just said that the owners called up Redmond and demanded the pitching assignments be changed so thats why Fernandez is pitching the early game.


      1. no. Bert went on to say Redmond was pretty mad about it.
        I havent seen any beat writer mention this. I would think that this would be a story

  3. Nice to see Hicks take a walk, but it would be nice to see him take an aggressive swing now and again when he's ahead in the count, instead of taking two strikes like he just did.

  4. Going into today, the Twins have as many games played as the Marlins have losses. That made me smile when I saw today's game in the schedule.

    1. I was going to blame the Marlins, but they actually make contact pretty well. At least, better than average in the NL. However, they have a team OPS of .557, which is last in the NL and .107 behind the next to last team, the Padres. Wow, that is bad.

    1. That included Hicks, so that must have been a team adjustment. If so, that was great coaching.

    1. That's what I thought when I saw where that landed. Boy oh boy. Can we send Chicky Chicky Parm Parm back to AAA and keep Oswaldo?

      1. It's probably a pitch count not an inning thing. He went six innings in one game, but threw just 85 pitches.

  5. Phil Miller ‏@MillerStrib
    Dozier with his 3rd hit today, he's now 7 for 14 as leadoff hitter. He's pulled up Twins' leadoff average to .189.

  6. That could have been a lot worse. Probably means Burton won't be available for Game 2, though.

      1. I was kind of surprised he wasn't, however Gardy tried to let him pitch the eighth against the Royals and he gave up a couple runs without getting an out.

        1. True. Against most teams I wouldn't have liked to see it. But against the Marlins in the first game of a double header with less than 90 pitches... I'd have like to see it.

    1. In the old, pre-MLB in California, Pacific Coast League days, they used to play about 200-220 games a season. I'd be in favor of that.

  7. Kevin Correia, xFIP by year:

    4.14 -- 2009
    4.06 -- 2010
    4.38 -- 2011
    4.34 -- 2012
    4.10 -- 2013 (4 GS)

    It's SSS so far this year, but Correia's peripherals are, overall, essentially in line with the last four seasons when he's been a perfectly mediocre pitcher. He'll likely regress some (and with an ERA better than his xFIP, he's allowed fewer runs than you might otherwise expect), but barring injury, I don't think he's going to completely fall off the face of the planet.

    Obviously there is some lesson here about how the Twins have drastically overvalued Correia. Or something.

    1. Well, one-fourth of his starts have been against a historically bad offense and three-fourths of his starts have come at home.

      1. I suppose one-fourth of his starts from 2009-2012 were against historically bad offenses, too. I just don't see any evidence for why I should believe Correia is suddenly going to be a terrible pitcher when he's been perfectly serviceable the last four years and has looked serviceable so far this year as well.

        1. I fully agree. He won't be this good all year, and he'll probably have a few starts where he doesn't do well at all, but overall I expect him to be the same pitcher he's always been.

            1. Free agents are more of a crapshoot than I think is commonly acknowledged. Sometimes you get a JI JIM THOME and sometimes you get a RonDL.

              1. That would be an interesting study to see if players that change teams have more variance in performance than those with the same teams. Plus, if it makes a difference if they were traded or went as free agents. Hopefully, the study could be adjusted for park effects and league differences.

                1. I don't know about variance, but the rest has been done. Players that switch teams tend to under-perform projections compared to non-team switchers (i.e. players that sign with the same team).

                  1. Players that are traded have a similar effect. I do not recall the controls on that, but I recall it studying prospects.

    2. He's been worth an average of 0.625 fWAR the past four years. That's something like worth $2.7 million. On a $10M/2yr contract that seems definitively overvalued to me. If it was 1yr/$5M, okay, that's fine, but giving overvalued contracts for multiple years to pitchers that mediocre who are over 30 is not exactly the height of "reasonable".

      It's not about just Correia, but it shows a weakness of decision process. The only reason people talked about Correia over and over again was because the Twins did literally almost nothing else of note for the major league team this offseason, and in the process cut another huge chunk of payroll, which is also something I find absolutely worth criticizing.

  8. The Twins have gone 10 days since they last lost. They haven't gone this long without a loss during a season since June 11 through June 21 in 2011. That included an eight-game winning streak.

  9. According to Atteberry, the youngest Twin ever to hit a home run was Paul Ratliff. I would've guessed a long time before coming up with that name.

    1. Ratliff got 24 PAs in 1963 at age 19 and then didn't get back up until age 26. I think I've heard of cases where players had to be in the majors for the team to keep the player's rights in the years before the draft. This must have been one of those cases because he did nothing in the minors to justify being called up. He was awful at AA.

        1. Probably, although Ratliff started in the minors. I would like to know his story as to why he was brought up and then had to wait seven more years before getting back. Well, his numbers indicate why he it took so long to get back, but not why he got called up in the first place.

        2. I didn't think they had Bonus Babies as late as '63, though. I remember him playing (as little as he did) in the early '70s, along with catchers Phil Roof and George Mitterwald.

          1. Wikipedia tells me that Catfish Hunter was the last Bonus Baby, debuting in 1965, though as socal pointed out, Ratliff wasn't one, since he started in Class D ball.

      1. Ratliff went .287/.421/.575 in Class D as an 18-year-old, and the Twins put him on the Opening Day roster. Jerry Zimmerman doesn't have an appearance for the Twins until April 26th, so he was probably injured to start the season and the Twins were impressed enough with Ratliff that they were willing to let him warm the bench for Earl Battey until Zimmerman was healthy. Kind of interesting to see that Battey started 142 games that year but only finished 117.

        And FWIW:

        .252/.325/.359 -- Sally League, 1963
        .242/.289/.341 -- Ratliff @ Charlotte, 1963

        Ratliff was basically a league average hitter and spent all his time in the field as a catcher. Looks like an above-average player for the league.

        1. if you look at his game log for 1963, he appeared in only 10 games -- 3 as a PH.

          4-14 PH in the 7th
          4-16 entered in the 10th and finished the game as C
          4-17 complete game at C
          4-20 PH in the 9th
          4-21 complete game at C in game 2 of double header
          5-01 PH in the 8th
          5-19 entered in the 5th and finished game at C, 2nd of double header

          and then three appearances in September
          9-19 started at C; removed for PH in 9th
          9-21 entered in 6th and finished game as C, 2nd of double header
          9-24 complete game at C

    2. Ratliff had a .190/.292/.381 line in 24 PA, with all of his time in the field at catcher. Below the Mendoza line, above the Butera line.

  10. Mike Berardino ‏@MikeBerardino
    Corriea has 4 straight 7IP-plus starts to open the year, most for Twins since Ramon Ortiz did it in 2007.

    1. Heh, I believe I had many bad things to say about Ramon Ortiz back then, though I'd guess that in my youthful exuberance I was probably too hard on him.

      Ortiz xFIP by year:

      5.25 -- 2003
      4.74 -- 2004
      4.67 -- 2005
      5.29 -- 2006
      4.64 -- 2007 (w/Twins, excluding Rockies)

      His 4.64 xFIP includes his bullpen work with the Twins, but I'm too lazy to split it into starting/relieving.

  11. second game on FSN+

    soo yeah, there is a good chance I will not get to watch this game because Comcast and FSN cant get their act together

    1. Only slightly better for DirecTV. This is the third channel I've seen them use (670/670-1 now). Even better when it's not listed in the guide. Must have been added after I edited the channel listing.

  12. What's the weird rumor about the Twins playing a game in Minnesota today? What's this weirder rumor about them playing two? What's this weirdest rumor about them being only half a game out of first this late in the season?

  13. Pelfrey checks second. Checks third. Checks home. Checks his slow cooker. Ponders Life, the Universe and Everything. Throws home.

    1. I just got here, but I think I'd like to see Pelfrey go the way of Marquis and find someone else to take his spot.

  14. I'd blame Casilla for that first inning, but it almost seems like it's bordering on cliche at this point.

  15. This sideline reporter who is not Marney sounds an awful lot like Marney. No word yet about the size of her butt.

  16. Unless the Twins get a reliever in here very quickly, this does seem like the sort of game that is merciful in its quick desolation of my expectations - merciful enough for me to move on with my evening.

    1. I love it when I sit down to turn on the game and the Twins are down by three runs and the bases are loaded.

      Big Pelf sucks.

        1. I wasn't aware it was possible to score more than one run with the bases loaded after watching too much Twins baseball.

      1. Nah, the classic Radke was to give up 5 in the first and then pitch six or seven scoreless innings.

  17. No snow on the Target Field in Gameday. Be curious to see what's going on in Scandia (heading there tomorrow night).

    I ordered some trees from the County. Not sure how I am going to get them into the ground while I am there.

            1. Yeah, that's why we built in the Off Switch. It's right...here.... Umm, where's the Off switch?

  18. Dick displaying his confusion with how weather works. Hint: the warmest part of the day isn't usually 1 PM.

    1. It is also difficult to appreciate the difference in time zones when you believe the universe revolves around you.

  19. Stanton looking a bit cold in right. Wearing the balaclava and has his sleeves pulled over his hands.

  20. Didn't like that at-bat from Hicks- runner on third with one out, he shouldn't be taking a called strike three.

  21. Sweet! I've only missed 14 innings of baseball today. Well, at least I'm here for the rest. If this is the end of the streak, I'll be annoyed.

  22. Four starts might not constitute total panic mode, but five runs to the Marlins in fewer than five innings might. I knew he wasn't much, but I didn't think he was the next Marquis/Livan/Ortiz.

      1. Whether with us or whoever, I hope he rebounds. That shot of him in the dugout running his hands through his hair was a little heartbreaking.

    1. Im going to wait until he pitches a game where the temp is more than 32 degrees before tossing him to the scrap heap

    1. that should be a standard for every baseball broadcast.
      but Im not holding my breath for FSN to upgrade baseball broadcasts since they only started to put OBP on the stat line last year

  23. So, I have two observations about this game. First, how in the world is it only the bottom of the 6th? Secondly, I'd love it if the Twins stopped stranding runners any time here.

  24. Luckily the Marlins being terrible is just the thing the Twins need to get back into this game!

  25. Hockey Update: Backstrom with a spectacular save with 11 seconds left to preserve a must-win victory over the Kings.

  26. Pretty embarrassing that the Twins allowed the Marlins to double their runs on the year today.

  27. Im already scoring this one a loss. Series split is cool and all, but to the hands of the Marlins is boo.

    and now another day off Wednesday, yeah thats a big boo too

  28. We won! We're still on track for 155-7! Wait, we lost? We'll just have to settle for 154-8!

    This two games in one day thing is confusing.

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