149 thoughts on “July 23, 2013: But He’s an Innings Eater”

  1. Royals keep running Wade Davis out there, so Blanton's not even the worst starter in the League.

      1. Worley still leads Diamond in negative rWAR, and his fourth in the league. Davis however, has a half win lead on the second place guy, Grimm.

  2. The power was out in Gettysburg for about an hour this morning for no apparent reason, so Minor Details will be delayed. We appreciate your patience.

  3. This is a day of mourning at the Alma Mater. Marv Rotblatt has died.

    The article gets some of the history wrong, which is not surprising, given that the school apparently no longer has intramural softball leagues. The men's league was known as "Rotblatt" in my day, the women's league as "Wombatt". (co-ed was, IIRC, "co-ed Rotblatt"). Now they refer to the anniversary game as "Rotblatt" according to The Boy and the article. In my day (GOML!), it was just the "[fill in the requisite number]-inning game".

    1. He's currently on my 1951 Dodger squad that just made the NLCS. I had no idea he had a local connection.

  4. I've been watching Mauer's WAR numbers climb recently (both fWAR and rWAR) and see that he's really getting into elite territory for catchers. By B-ref's calculations, his 7 best seasons (rWAR7) are the 5th highest of any catcher (behind Carter, Bench, Piazza, Rodriguez) at 37.7 (he just passed Fisk).

    He is now the 11th catcher who has a JAWS over 40 by both B-ref and Fan Graphs. His JAWS average at 40.40. Hall of Famer Gabby Hartnett at #10 is reachable this year at 41.85

    and all this despite playing only 10 seasons (2 of them cut short from injuries, one with 60+ games to go) and most of the guys ahead of him have significanly longer careers.

    I only counted players who played at least 60% of their games at catcher (so no Joe Torre or Gene Tennace, for example). Mauer has currently played 78.4% of his games at catcher. For comparison Johnny Bench played 80.7% of his games at catcher. Yogi played 80.1. Ted Simmons 72.1. Mickey Cochrane played 97.9%

    JMIVGAB

    1. Just 1.9 behind Ivan Rodriguez in rWAR7, so Mauer could end up at fourth all-time in rWAR7 by the end of the year. Getting to third could be challenging. Mauer's seventh best season is 2007 right now at 3.9 rWAR. Assuming he ties Rodriguez at the end of the year, he'll need to add another 3.5 rWAR on top of his sixth or seventh-best seasons to do so.

      1. I know its better for his long term health, but Mauer's WAR number are going to struggle to really hit elite levels if he plays 1/3 of his games at DH or 1B. Look at Gary Carter's 1982 season for example. He played 154 games with a 146 OPS+ but had 8.6 WAR due to playing 153 of those games at catcher. Mauer could have quite a few more seasons of 150 games and an OPS+ north of 140, but he's probably not going to have any 7.5 WAR seasons or higher.

        1. I wonder if what he would lack in position might be partially made up by improved performance at the other positions?

          1. Generally that's true, but not so for Mauer:

            Split G PA BA OBP SLG OPS
            as C 885 3887 .327 .408 .478 .886
            as 1B 52 219 .335 .411 .448 .859
            as DH 187 819 .311 .399 .434 .834

            His SLG might increase some at first still, but he's clearly worse at DH. I would expect DH to be worse than 1B, but not necessarily catcher being clearly better.

              1. The years he played 1B and DH a lot were years where he was hurt. I think overall, he'd be better offensively without the wear and tear of catching.

            1. any truth to the half baked theory of mine, that catchers hit a lot better right now (Posey, Yadier, not to mention the next level of Carlos Santanas, etc) and Mauer's getting hurt by those comparisons as opposed to Gary Carter having no good hitting contemporaries?

              1. No. The positional adjustments aren't made solely on offense differences (due in part to this issue). For offensive runs in WAR, the comparison is runs above average for the league. If anything, Mauer could be helped by teams using more offense focused catchers (Santana), which would lower the average defensive skill of catchers.

  5. Tweet A:

    Spoiler SelectShow

    Tweet B:

    Spoiler SelectShow
  6. ``I just felt at that time - it was the first game of a road trip - I thought it was important to try to win this thing and you put your best pitcher out there,'' said Gardenhire, who didn't rule out trying it again.

      1. Well... Mauer was batting 3rd, right? So, apparently it's a cautious pod person, and it doesn't want to reveal too much at once.

      1. Working off of Nibs' premise: There's hope for Mauer batting second, but not for the human race.

  7. Just dinking around on B-Ref and marveling at how awesome Mike Schmidt was and had a question for the masses. If you were drafting a team from every player that's ever existed, and you got the first pick in the draft, who would you take?

    1. Based on potential? Based on skills? Based on how they actually did during their careers?

      I mean, probably Barry Bonds for all three.

        1. That was actually going to be another one of my questions. I mean, do I get the video game version of Barry Bonds? Because I'll take him. "Mere Superstar" Barry, I'd probably draft second round, maybe?

    2. Is this a snake draft? 30 teams? Positional scarcity might come into play then for me.

          1. Even Bench would be somewhat tempting there, given how far above other catchers he is. I'd say he's significantly ahead of Morgan for me.

            My internal debates are currently running Mays vs. Cobb, Williams vs. Gehrig, Wagner vs. Bench

            I'd be going with one of those 6 though.

              1. Maybe I'm just a sucker, but I've long considered him underrated in the pantheon of HOFers. He was a lot more than the iron man. Though if it helps, I probably would go with Williams over him.

                    1. On a team full of history's best all-stars, given that he bragged that he killed a black man in Detroit for "insubordination" or whatever, he'd be a pretty big liability.

            1. Gehrig?

              so, there are two considerations here: period-relative value, and positional relative value, right?

              Ruth has five of the top ten (six of the top 11) b-r WAR seasons of all time. No one else has more than two in the top 20 (Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle each have two such seasons).

              I don't know how much more you need to establish who the first pick would be, based on "absolute" value. Ruth in a landslide.

              Stretching things out, there have been 55 10+ rWAR seasons all time.

              9 for Ruth
              6 for Hornsby
              6 for Mays
              3 for Barry Bonds
              3 for Mantle
              3 for Ted Williams (and probably would have been 1-3 more if not for service)
              3 for Cobb
              2 for Yaz
              2 for Honus Wagner
              2 for Gehrig
              2 for Speaker

                1. I wish BR had WAA more easily accessible. It's available on the player pages, but not in play index or the leaderboards. Ruth had a higher peak, but Bonds had a more consistent career.

                  1. 5 of the top 10 and 9 of the top 55 rWAR seasons of all time is a pretty long "peak".

                    1. We're also comparing the two best players ever. Their WAR and WAA are very similar, so if Ruth had noticeably more 10+ win seasons, Bonds had more in the middle.

                    2. We’re also comparing the two best players ever.

                      Right. No disagreement there.

                      One must also remember that Ruth was basically a full-time pitcher for his first three full seasons, shifting gradually to the OF when he wasn't pitching. His rWAR for batters appears not to reflect his rWAR for pitchers for those years (age 21, he had an rWAR for pitchers of 8.7 and an rWAR for batters of 1.7; age 22, it was 6.5 for pitchers and 2.1 for batters; age 23 it was 2.3 and 5.2; age 24 it was 0.8 and 9.5, respectively). When you account for the pitching value (or the foregone batting value, perhaps), Ruth's "consistency" looks even more scarily great.

                      From his age-24 season (first "full-time" season as a position player) through his age-37 season, he amassed 140.8 rWAR for batters (avg. 10.1 per season and 11.1 per 650 PA).

                      The comparable run for Bonds is 1989-2004 (age-24 to age-39, two more seasons but the last two were MVP years): 139.1 rWAR, 8.7 per season and 9.7 rWAR per 650 PA.

                      So I think you can make a pretty good case that Ruth's peak and consistency were actually higher and better than Bonds'. That said, both have ridiculous numbers.

                    1. It’s the Roger Clemens of WGOM joaks.

                      I was thinking more Willie Mays: an all-time great that stuck around just a little too long.

    3. Years ago I frequented a website that actually did a draft like this with 30 guys. I picked third and Ruth fell to me.

  8. This is about Blanton after last night's game:

    ''Joe made some good pitches but he just missed with some spots,'' Scioscia said. ''There's nobody trying harder than Joe, but it just didn't come together tonight.''

    I know I've heard Gardy say similar things, such as no one feels worse than him or he's doing all the work, etc. Do fans really think players aren't trying? I'm thinking they just suck. Also, if I think a player isn't trying hard enough, then I'm blaming the manager, not the player. Maybe that's a manager just covering his own butt.

    1. The overwhelming majority of professional athletes are trying to do everything they can to win, including cheating.

      1. That's my feeling as well, which is why I don't get that quote. Basically, the manager is telling us this is the best he can do, so why does he keep getting run out there?

      2. I agree with you, but it's amazing how many fans and analysts there are who are quick to assume that certain players don't try hard and don't really want to win.

  9. Do fans really think players aren’t trying?

    I eventually came to that conclusion about Luis Rivas.

    1. Rivas hit home runs in 3 out of the 4 games I saw him live and picked him to hit a home run. So I like to think he was trying for me, and only me.

  10. Bernier, the Twins' 33-year-old shortstop, was playing in his fourth big league game and making his first start in the majors since June 19, 2008, with Colorado. He was recalled from Triple-A Rochester on July 14, more than 11 years after signing his first professional contract.

    ''It was nice to see a young kid - 33 years old - go out there at shortstop and play like he did and get a big base hit for us,'' Gardenhire said.

    That "young kid" is the second-oldest player on the current active roster and the third-oldest to play for the Twins this year (Willingham is a year older). He is a year older than Andy MacPhail was when he became general manager of the Twins in 1985.

    1. That explains why Deduno is a young pitcher. They're comparing the player's age to their own.

    1. In that stretch, the Twins gained 2 1/2 games and were still in third place, 9 games back after winning 19 of 20. The Twins also won 19 of 20 in 1991 when the only loss came when Aguilera blew a save at Baltimore after TK chose to intentionally walk 1991 MVP Cal Ripken, which put the winning run on base. Only 1 team has ever won 20 straight games. I wonder how many teams have gone 19-1 more than once?

      1. The Yankees have gone 19-1, depending if you allow overlapping streaks, either three or 11 times. The Cards have done it three times as well, though twice before 1900.

            1. I was at the game where the streak ended thanks to Radke. Another example of "ah the good old days"

    1. I remember watching The Princess Bride with a host student from Northern Ireland who had never seen it. He started laughing hysterically as soon as Smith appeared.

  11. Even the brit royals don't give a [redacted] about the baby birth. Yahoo headline (sorry, not linking):

    Princess Anne on Royal Baby's Birth: "Nothing to Do With Me"

  12. Got some advice fellas, don't shoot a 2.5 inch wire brad through your finger at work.

    1. I've got myself in the palm while framing with a air nail gun(not as hard to do as you might think). Yeah, not recommended for anyone and I feel your pain, meat.

      1. Doc says I'm lucky. Missed the bone and nerve by a fraction. Will have some 'discomfort' for several days. My coworker was in more shock than I was. I simply went back to nailing together the exhibition case I was working on (while bleeding all over it...). Good times.

    2. Ouch, meat. A few years ago I really mashed my middle finger with a hammer while hanging some sheetrock. It split open like a grape and bled all over and I nearly passed out. I got lucky, though -- didn't break the bone or lose the fingernail.

    3. Friend at work accidentally hit her foot with power washer. She said - 'i could see the bone' - ratch.

      1. My buddy in HS did the same thing. He was washing out some hog pens and the nozzle somehow went down his rain boot. Burned the bejeezus out of his foot.

  13. so, lead in imported hot sauces? Ugh.

    UNLV researchers tested 25 bottles of hot sauce imported from Mexico and South America. The products were bought in the U.S. at ethnic markets and grocery stores. Four bottles, or 16% of the sample, exceeded U.S. Food and Drug Administration standard for safe levels of lead. The product packaging was also tested because lead in packaging has been known to leach into food.

    The results were published earlier this year in the Journal of Environmental Science and Health and recently publicized by the university.

    [Updated, 11:19 a.m. PDT July 23: According to the study's researchers, the four sauces with the highest lead content are Salsa Picante de Chile Habanero, El Pato Salsa Picante, Salsa Habanera and Bufalo Salsa Clasica.]

    1. Makes me even happier that my wife cans about fifty quarts of salsa every summer.

      1. My personal favorite is Mark Miller's Coyote Cafe recipe for pico de gallo

        2 tbsp finely chopped onion
        2 cups chopped tomatoes
        2 finely chopped serrano chilies
        2 tsp finely chopped cilantro
        1/4 cup mexican beer
        2 tsp salt
        2 tsp sugar
        juice of one lime
        1-2 cloves garlic, smushed to a paste or chopped fine (optional)

        Combine. Let macerate for at least a few minutes, if you can stand it. Eat. Pro tip: drink the rest of the beer while you are making this salsa. use whatever mild beer you have on hand -- but nothing too hoppy or funky. An American lager is fine. Dos Equis is fine. Negra Modelo is extra fine.

    2. Cholula's not in the top four, and it costs $44 to get the full report. I'm gonna keep rolling the dice. I can't eat an omelet without my Cholula.

    3. Updated, 11:19 a.m. PDT July 23: According to the study's researchers, the four sauces with the highest lead content are Salsa Picante de Chile Habanero, El Pato Salsa Picante, Salsa Habanera and Bufalo Salsa Clasica.

      Wrote on your facebook also.
      What do I do about my bottles of Bufalo Clasica? Where did Bufalo Chipotle go (It's no longer on MN store shelves)? How much lead does that have? If I don't give it to the kids, am I alright?

      1. from the article (gated) abstract:

        This study quantified lead concentrations in imported hot sauces, evaluated product compliance to existing United States standards, and calculated potential dietary lead exposure for children using the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic Model. Finally, recommendations for reducing the risk of lead exposure from hot sauces are provided. Twenty-five (25) bottles of imported hot sauces manufactured in Mexico and South America were purchased in Clark County, Nevada. All hot sauces were analyzed for lead concentrations, pH, and leaded packaging. Hot sauces were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry and packaging was analyzed using x-ray fluorescence technology. Four brands of hot sauces (16%) exceeded 0.1 ppm lead, the current FDA action level for lead in candy. Hot sauces with lead concentrations >0.1 ppm lead contained salt and were manufactured in Mexico. Subsequent analysis of additional lots of hot sauces exceeding 0.1 ppm lead revealed inconsistent lead concentrations between and within manufacturer lots. The lead concentrations of the plastic hot sauce lids ranged from below the limit of detection to 2,028 ppm lead. There was no association between lead concentrations in hot sauces and pepper type. These results indicate the need for more rigorous screening protocols for products imported from Mexico, the establishment of an applicable standard for hot sauce, and resources to allow for the enforcement of existing food safety policies.

        so, the lead contents varied not only across brands but across and within lots of the same sauce. Wash the lids of your bottles thoroughly, at the very least. Beyond that, I have no easy recommendation other than to switch to a domestic brand until further notice.

  14. I'll be in the motherland this weekend for a wedding. Actually, it's a second wedding of a good friend, and I have to stand. I told him that I won't be attending the third.

  15. George Mitchell's getting involved in the Minnesota Orchestra dispute? I can't to learn that it's all Roger Clemens's fault.

  16. Oswaldo Arcia is out of the game after two innings. Eric Farris replaces him in lineup. No reason as of yet. Arcia struck out in first.— Jim Mandelaro (@jmand1) July 23, 2013

    Hmmm. I'm thinking he might be promoted if he's not hurt.

        1. According to the box score, Arcia struck out in his only at bat. Did he not hustle in the field or something?

          1. And it appears that the only ball hit to him in the field was a fly ball that he caught. I don't understand.

  17. Nick Blackburn, making his first start for Triple-A Rochester along the comeback trail, gave up six runs on 10 hits in five innings Tuesday against the Lehigh Valley IronPigs. Blackburn had no walks or strikeouts but gave up two home runs and a pair of doubles.

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