On Monday evening Graham Womack, the proprietor of Baseball: Past and Present, published his fourth annual article on the 50 best baseball players not in the Hall of Fame. Graham's list is the product of ballots submitted by over 200 readers, including yours truly (my third year voting). I counted four former Minnesota Twins on the list, but there might be a couple short-time guys I missed. Graham's piece is a massive article, but entirely worth the read.

I really enjoy the way Womack conducts this survey. Voters are first asked to identify who they believe are the best players outside the Hall of Fame (no metrics or other specific criteria are required), and secondly whether the player belongs in the Hall of Fame. This way, apart from the PED issue, there's a fairly clear delineation of where voters believe the Hall of Fame ends and the Hall of Very Good starts.

In sean's WGOM's Take on the Hall of Fame post, Doc expressed his desire to see the median Hall of Famer at each position. I've broken the positions down below, then contextualized the medians with a decent selection of players eligible for Womack's list.

Now that we have the median HoFers at each position, let's take a position-by-position look at the induction-eligible players currently outside the Hall. Up first, catchers:

Looking at the catchers, it's pretty clear that Mike Piazza and Joe Torre easily exceed the Hall of Fame median for catchers. Ted Simmons is very close to a median Hall of Fame catcher and should be inducted. Gene Tenace is a bit more borderline, while Thurman Munson probably could be inducted via the Kirby Puckett route. So, it looks like 3-5 catchers who could be HoFers remain uninducted. Inducting all five would push the number of catchers up to 18, the number of first basemen currently in the hall.

Next, first basemen:

Five players clearly above the HOF median: Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas, Edgar Martinez, Rafael Palmeiro, and Mark McGwire. If it weren't for a whisper campaign in the mediocy, Bagwell would already be in the Hall of Fame.  His stats are a grand slam in the Astrodome above the median for his position. Thomas is obviously induction-worthy, too. Even though he played third when he played defense, I included Edgar Martinez with the first basemen given how much time he spent as a designated hitter. Hall of Fame-worthy designated hitters probably should hit as well or better than first basemen. Edgar Martinez did that and then some. As for Palmeiro and McGwire, their PED use (and perhaps Palmeiro's modest peak) has kept them out of the Hall. If you're a small hall guy or would like to see candidates clear the median for their position, Keith Hernandez is currently a borderline candidate. I'm receptive to arguments either way. The rest miss the cut, though contemporaries John Olerud, Will Clark, and Fred McGriff make the Hall of Very Good or a large HoF. Don Mattingly is the Jack Morris of first basemen.

On to the keystone, where 19 second basemen have been inducted into the Hall of Fame:

Four players clearly above the WAR threshold for a median Hall of Fame second basemen: Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, Willie Randolph, and Craig Biggio. Things get a little more complicated when it comes to WAR7 and JAWS. Whitaker and Randolph suffer because their peaks were below the median. Depending on how things shake out, Craig Biggio, even with his 3,060 hits, might take a while longer to be inducted. Bobby Grich was a straight-up miss. Nobody else is truly on the fringe unless you're a large HoF fan, and then you're probably supporting Jeff Kent's induction. Julio Franco is included here as a longevity vs. brief brilliance comparison to Chuck Knoblauch. There are many ways to produce 40+ WAR in a career.

This is where things get ridiculous. While third base shares the fewest number of position player inductees (13) with the catchers, it may be the most neglected position when it comes to Hall of Fame honors:

Like I said, ridiculous. You'll note this table has two medians - the first for the median HOF third baseman, and the second for the median HOF first baseman. No third baseman currently outside the Hall of Fame meets the median for players inducted at their position. Four third basemen currently outside the Hall of Fame meet the median for players inducted at first base: Graig Nettles, Buddy Bell, Ken Boyer, and Sal Bando. Two more – Dick Allen and Darrell Evans – would be compelling borderline candidates at first base. Robin Ventura and Ron Cey had pretty solid careers and might be induction worthy if you're a large HoF fan. Gary Gaetti is included solely for local interest and appreciation of his longevity.

One position left in the infield, and the second-best (21) represented position in the HoF:

Despite the high number of inductees, shortstop has a pretty high median – third highest among the position players. Bill Dahlen and Alan Trammell exceed both the HoF median for shortstop and first base. Both should have been in the Hall a long time ago. Joe Glasscock doesn't exceed the (relatively absurd) HoF median for shortstop, but he is just about in line with the median for first base. Nobody else is particularly close, though Jim Fregosi did have quite a peak. Mark Belanger is included as a comp for Dave Concepcion, and Dave Concepcion is included because it's time for everyone to stop talking about him like a huge Hall of Fame snub. Dave Concepcion is the Jack Morris of shortstops.

To the outfield!

The median for Hall of Fame left fielders is even lower than the median for first basemen. Barry Bonds blows the doors off of the standard, to the surprise of absolutely no one. Barry Bonds won't be elected to the Hall of Fame any time soon, also to the surprise of absolutely no one. Pete Rose is ineligible for induction. Tim Raines clearly belongs in the Hall of Fame; the question is, how long will it take the BBWAA to realize it? If you're a large hall advocate, I suppose it's possible to find room for Sherry Magee. It's possible Minnie Miñoso would have been playing in the major leagues earlier than 1949 (his age-23 season) had racial discrimination not been institutionalized throughout Major League Baseball.

Off to center field we go:

Center field has the second-lowest Hall of Fame median, trailing only catcher. This makes Kenny Lofton's one-and-done appearance on the ballot all the more confusing. Go figure - the BBWAA can't even elect a player who vaults over the low standard it has established for center fielders. Willie "3-Dog" Davis might be a marginal Hall of Famer. His WAR just barely clears the median WAR total for a Hall of Fame first baseman, but he's got a little room to spare as a center fielder. Ultimately, I suppose it depends on whether you think 60-61 WAR is an acceptable threshold for the Hall of Fame, or whether you think it should be a tad higher. Nobody else gets quite close enough, though Jimmy "Toy Cannon" Wynn had a Hall of Fame-worth peak. If you want to give him a little extra credit for playing in the late-Sixties, early-Seventies Astrodome during his peak years, he could be borderline.

Next, right field - our last stop for position players:

Right field has the second-highest HoF median, which makes a ton of sense when you think about who played there. Right field has more players (5) who produced 100+ rWAR than any other position: Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, Stan Musial, Mel Ott, and Frank Robinson. Two more players, Roberto Clemente and Al Kaline, have 90+ rWAR.

Time for a brief digression, though I promise it will be relevant. Tony Gwynn is essentially the median HoF right fielder. By rWAR Larry Walker was about one MVP-caliber season better than Tony Gwynn over their careers. When people discuss Walker's candidacy, they almost always focus on "the Coors Effect." This strikes me as terribly silly for several reasons. Reason #1: Major League Baseball decided it wanted a team in Denver. Somebody had to play there. The statistics players generate in Coors are every bit as valid as those put up in the Astrodome. Two extremes, but also two legitimate major league venues. Sometimes when people talk about Coors Field in the 1990s, there's a small implication that the stats of anyone who played for the Rockies then aren't really valid. If that's the case, we should probably reexamine players who played in several other ballparks from baseball's past, too. Reason #2: Larry Walker played in Montreal the first five seasons of his career. During those seasons, 1990-1994, Olympic Stadium's park factor for batting was 100, exactly average. During those seasons, at ages 23-27, Walker's average OPS+ was 130. During his age-38 season and after all his injury problems, Walker posted a 130 OPS+ as a Cardinal. Old Busch Stadium's park factor that year (2005) was 101. Reason #3: Larry Walker was terribly injury-prone. He exceeded 143 games played in a season exactly once - in 1997, when he won the NL MVP after he hit .366/.452/.720 and generated 9.8 rWAR. Jay Jaffe observed something incredible in his post considering Walker's candidacy:

Walker spent 17 seasons in the major leagues but missed so much time due to injuries (and of course, the 1994-95 strike) that 23 other players took more plate appearances during the years spanning his career, even after excluding his 56 plate appearance pre-rookie season of 1989. The median players from that group, Gary Sheffield and Marquis Grissom (another fine product of the Montreal system) had 11 percent more plate appearances from 1990-2005.

Larry Walker missed a ton of baseball during his career, but when he played, he really played.

Back to the rest of right field. Dwight Evans is essentially right at the median for a Hall of Fame right fielder. It's pathetic that Jim Rice is in the Hall and his teammate Evans isn't. Good job, BBWAA. There's a case for Reggie Smith, particularly if you're a large hall  advocate, and Shoeless Joe Jackson would be in the HoF were he eligible for induction. Beyond that, nobody gets particularly close. Bobby Bonds had a Hall-worthy peak, but falls short on cumulative value. Tony Oliva is an even more extreme version of that scenario - his career rWAR total essentially all one beautiful, brilliant, HoF-worthy peak. There's just not enough to supplement it.

Hoo, boy. On to starting pitchers:

Wow. Seven starting pitchers currently outside the Hall of Fame are above the HoF median for starters. Of the seven, the one who strikes me as really worth discussing at this point is Rick Reuschel. Everybody else is either a slam dunk, should be a slam dunk, or has PED issues. Reuschel fell off the ballot in 1997 - his first year of eligibility - after receiving only 0.4% of the BBWAA's vote. Orel Hershiser, who put together a pretty nice career despite losing a year in his prime to a torn rotator cuff, received 11.2% in his first year of eligibility, and he wasn't anywhere near as good as Reuschel. Let's not be outraged that Greg Maddux isn't unanimously inducted, though that does point out the absurdity of the BBWAA quite well. Instead, let's be outraged that Rick Reuschel was essentially dismissed out of hand despite being a better pitcher than Don Drysdale, and will have to wait around until some enlightened future Veterans Committee gives him the nod. If he's even that lucky. Luis Tiant is pretty close to the HoF median for starters and should probably be in the Hall already. Everybody after him on the list makes for a pretty good Hall of the Very Good. Frank Viola and Brad Radke are on the list for comparative value with the last pitcher listed. Naturally, Jack Morris is the Jack Morris of starting pitchers.

Bring out that bullpen cart - I'm just about gassed:

Unsurprisingly, there are no relief pitchers outside the Hall of Fame who are above the HoF median for relievers. Let's keep it that way. This chart should probably put to bed the Quisenberry-for-HoF crowd. Something possibly worth considering, however, are the careers of pre-modern relievers. One can't exactly call them early influences in the way the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame has for inductees like Hank Williams, Howlin' Wolf, Muddy Waters, and Louis Armstrong, but they are a breed apart from anything we've seen since the early 1980s. Bobby Shantz, John Hiller, Firpo Marberry, Ellis Kinder, and Lindy McDaniel all have higher rWAR and JAWS totals than Rollie Fingers and Bruce Sutter. Greg Swindell is the most puzzling pitcher on this list, however. Swindell has 334 fewer saves than Rollie Fingers and 293 fewer than Bruce Sutter. Swindell compiled 6.3 more rWAR than Sutter and 4.8 more than Fingers. Swindell also pitched a heck of a lot more innings - 534 more than Fingers, and 1,191 more than Sutter. I'm not arguing that Swindell belongs in the Hall of Fame. But his career does suggest some challenges to how we think about relievers and the Hall of Fame.

Well, that's it. If you've read this far, I thank you. If you skimmed through for things that interested you, I still thank you. Since I've taken up so much space here in the main post, I'll post my own ballot from Graham Womack's poll in a comment below.