MLB, WGOM

WGOM’s Prediction for BBWAA 2014 Hall of Fame Ballot

85 Comments

Because Morris.

Who do you think the BBWAA elects into the Hall of Fame?

  • Greg Maddux (24%, 17 Votes)
  • Frank Thomas (19%, 13 Votes)
  • Tom Glavine (14%, 10 Votes)
  • Craig Biggio (11%, 8 Votes)
  • Alan Trammell (4%, 3 Votes)
  • Tim Raines (4%, 3 Votes)
  • Mike Piazza (4%, 3 Votes)
  • Jeff Bagwell (3%, 2 Votes)
  • Roger Clemens (3%, 2 Votes)
  • Don Mattingly (1%, 1 Votes)
  • Larry Walker (1%, 1 Votes)
  • Jack Morris (1%, 1 Votes)
  • Mike Mussina (1%, 1 Votes)
  • Curt Schilling (1%, 1 Votes)
  • Jacque Jones (1%, 1 Votes)
  • Sammy Sosa (1%, 1 Votes)
  • Barry Bonds (1%, 1 Votes)
  • Rafael Palmeiro (1%, 1 Votes)
  • Richie Sexson (0%, 0 Votes)
  • Lee Smith (0%, 0 Votes)
  • Kenny Rogers (0%, 0 Votes)
  • J.T. Snow (0%, 0 Votes)
  • Mike Timlin (0%, 0 Votes)
  • Hideo Nomo (0%, 0 Votes)
  • Armando Benitez (0%, 0 Votes)
  • Sean Casey (0%, 0 Votes)
  • Ray Durham (0%, 0 Votes)
  • Eric Gagne (0%, 0 Votes)
  • Luis Gonzalez (0%, 0 Votes)
  • Todd Jones (0%, 0 Votes)
  • Jeff Kent (0%, 0 Votes)
  • Paul Lo Duca (0%, 0 Votes)
  • Edgar Martinez (0%, 0 Votes)
  • Fred McGriff (0%, 0 Votes)
  • Mark McGwire (0%, 0 Votes)
  • Moises Alou (0%, 0 Votes)

Total Voters: 18

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85 thoughts on “WGOM’s Prediction for BBWAA 2014 Hall of Fame Ballot”

  1. Have at it. This poll and the previous poll will be closed shortly before the results are announced on Wednesday at 2 PM EST.

  2. purely based on the current tally on the Gizmo.

    If Piazza not getting in this year is the price for Morris not getting in, I'm ok with that.

    1. Wow, I'm not even going to look up whoever wrote in Pete Rose. A write-in vote for Pete Rose seems like a desperate cry from a writer who can't earn any attention through his writing.

      Piazza had a pretty big gap to overcome (~18% or so), it seems right for him to get about half way.

      I'm surprised that Glavine and Thomas have such widespread support, not that I'm against their inclusion. I went Maddux/Biggio for a class of 2.

    2. I would actually be pleased with four in. I voted just Maddux.
      Wouldn't mind if it's low, with Piazza getting in as well.

      That will help the disaster situation where there just isn't enough consensus and no one gets in over and over although most voters would be happy with a wide set of many of them.

    3. Now 170 ballots in (29.9 pct of last year's turnout). Piazza is 5th at 68.2 pct (116 votes). Assuming that 568 total ballots are submitted, Piazza needs 426 votes. So he would need to get 310 votes from the remaining 398 ballots (77.9 pct).

      On the other side, Biggio is at 78.8 pct (134 votes). He needs 292 (73.4 pct) from the remaining 398.

      Morris is at 59.4 pct (101 votes) and would need 325 (81.7 pct).

      1. Now with 205 ballots in, Morris will need about 300 votes or 82.6 percent of remaining ballots (I think).

    1. The narrative around Morris is stunning.

      From Walters:

      He pitched 18 seasons and was the best in baseball for much of his era -- the 1980s and into the 1990s.

      I think many Morris supporters willingly acknowledge he wasn't the best, but good enough to be in the Hall.

      His magnificent 1-0, 10-inning victory for his hometown Twins over Atlanta in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series might have been the best-pitched game in World Series history.

      Err, what? The World Series has had quite a few games in it over the years. Looking at just game score for pitchers in the World Series, Morris' game ranks 40th.

  5. I couldn't see the writers voting in more than three in one year. I think if Thomas is in, Bagwell should certainly be in, but I would prefer Bags and Biggio to go in, in the same year anyways.

        1. I think that essentially makes him a lock for next year, even though the ballot isn't really that much less crowded. I figure Johnson/Martinez/Smoltz get similar vote totals to Maddux/Thomas/Glavine, and Mussina might get Morris-like support, but from a different crowd. Even so, voters tend to maintain support for incumbents they've voted for, so at most he probably needs 5-6 more votes.

          1. Oops, I forgot Mussina was on this year's ballot. Morris dropping off could actually add a lot of votes to other candidates, there were probably a lot of full ballots this year.

    2. If we go with requiring at least 50% of voters thinking they make it, the WGOM nailed the results.

    3. Here's the tally.

      Spoiler: Long Results SelectShow

      4. Sixteen voters didn't see Maddux as being worthy. Now, perhaps some of those were voting for folks to keep their chances alive, but dudes with empty spaces and no vote for Maddux are fools.

        1. Now, perhaps some of those were voting for folks to keep their chances alive,
          Outside of that dude who voted only for Morris, this is how I see it. Maddux was sure thing so they voted for someone else. Perhaps I am being generous.

        2. My ideal ballot the other day was Bagwell, Bonds, Clemens, Maddux, Mussina, Piazza, Raines, Schilling, Thomas, Trammell, but I wanted more votes to give. If I was being really strategic, I would have left off Maddux and replaced him with Biggio, to make sure that Biggio got in. I am kind of marginal on Biggio, but getting him in would help some of my other candidates.

          I guess I am surprised at the support for Glavine, but I also think he is deserving--though perhaps less deserving than Mussina or Schilling.

          1. I guess I am surprised at the support for Glavine

            Deserving candidate plus 300 (pitcher) wins.

            1. You know, I haven't looked at pitcher wins in so long that I forgot he had more than 300. That would explain it.

        1. Long-term, the main thing is that it's an increase. Frankly, I think he is over-qualified and it's embarrassing that he didn't get in on the first ballot, but I'll take some progress over no progress.

      6. I find it fairly interesting that the only three guys to make it were all first ballot guys.

      7. If my math is right, 4753 votes were cast from 571 ballots for an average of 8.3 players per ballot. Last year there were 3756 votes cast out of 569 ballots for an average of 6.6 players per ballot.

        1. that's refreshing that it went up, but if you figure nearly everyone voted for Maddux, Glavine, and Thomas (all new), then I guess it's not surprising. Without those three, I wonder if it would still be around 6.6

              1. of course, any year in which you have several over-qualified first-time candidates, you likely will see that effect.

      8. Raines now has 46.1% with eight more ballots to go. I expect the ten player limit to be gone soon (La Velle mentioned it and he's the pres), so he shouldn't lose support in future years. I think he makes it.

        Trammell is as good as gone unfortunately. Walker seems unlikely to make it also. If the limit is removed he should regain the 11% he lost, but it might not be enough.

        1. I think Trammel may have a shot with the Veteran's Committee, but yeah, he ain't making it. Walker will be like McGriff, I think, getting perpetual fervent support from a few voters. I agree that Raines gets in, somewhere around ballot 12 or 13.

        2. I basically agree with your thinking. I think Raines has enough support, though it's hard for me to see how the PED crowd will go with him. If you're against PED players are you against recreational drug players? Or are you against the "steroid era" and Raines is pre-steroids?

          Trammell just doesn't have enough years left to have support in the mid-30s. One thing that I think will make it hard for Walker (who I'm personally not a huge supporter of) is that by the time he could gain some momentum, they'll have been a bunch of inductions (this year's three, Biggio, Smoltz, Pedro, Johnson, Griffey--I consider them locks, I could be wrong I suppose), plus some other legitimate new candidates in his tier--Ivan Rodriguez, Manny, Jim Edmonds, Vlad--plus all the current non-locks who are ahead of him. I think the small Hall guys will be really stubborn about changing their minds on the non-locks, and you'll have some disagreements in taste with, say, Walker vs. Vlad or Walker vs. Edmonds.

          1. Home/Away career splits

            Player home/away avg obp slg
            Player A home 348 431 637
            Player A away 278 370 495
            Player B home 320 374 546
            Player B away 277 330 459

            Yea, I'm basically cribbing from JoePos, but it's a good crib. Lots of points.

            Spoiler SelectShow

              1. Heh.
                Obviously, you must never have seen Player B play, because he was the most feared hitter of his day.

                    1. which is irrelevant to his career home/away splits, I think. But relevant to Hall worthiness.

                      FWIW, Player A's career away SLG figure would have placed him about 120th all-time in career SLG. Well ahead of HOFers like Reggie Jackson, Larry Doby, George Brett, etc.

                      Obviously, comparing straight slash-line numbers across different offensive eras is dodgy. I just thought it was a fun fact.

        3. I tried to reply to this, but my LTE got stuck in moderation and I couldn't figure out how to approve it myself. I just have used too many hyphens or something.

    1. I was afraid you guys were going to have me voting for Jacque Jones and no one else.

      And what would be soooo wrong with that? 😉

    2. Heh.

      Of course, the ballot that Le Batard submitted was eminently justifiable on the merits. So, whatever, Jon.

      1. "santimonious" [sic] - making a show of being morally superior to other people.

        Well, I suppose it could well be morally superior to set your own judgement aside in favor of the judgement of a group of people.

        1. It was very disappointing to learn the identity of the person who sold his ballot to a certain website. As president of the Baseball Writer's Association of America, we are examining our options concerning this development. Other than that, we will have no comment.
          -La Velle

    1. Well, that's not as bad as I for some reason expected it to be, although Reusse's justification against Piazza is fairly dumb. The most shocking thing is that Bob Sansevere is the voice of reason on the PED guys.

      1. I wonder how Reusse determines what it means to get caught using PEDs. Bonds and Clemens, for instance, were never suspended by baseball for using PEDs--I would count that as not getting caught, but oh well.

        1. I think maybe Reusse is just automatically going with PED's are against the rules, whether they were at the time or not. I think Bonds and Clemens may have been caught using PEDs but they weren't caught breaking the rules put forth by the MLB. Semantic hair splitting, sure, but I think its the best way to look at it.

    2. Meh, I think Reusse's a pretty good baseball guy, but I think he's shortchanging Piazza's abilities behind the plate and has way too many empties on his ballot. Piazza's defense was fine at everything that's not throwing related. And even being a lousy catcher puts you above corner outfielders and 1Bs, in my book.

      Tom Powers wins my personal award for worst ballot of the bunch.

      I also counted 4 ballots that were full and included Morris, so that could bode well for other candidates going forward.

      1. Not to mention those that voted for players that will drop off due to lack of support. Obviously, a small percentage, but still. However, there will be plenty of good candidates added next year.

        1. Yep, next year's 1st balloters include:
          Randy Johnson
          Pedro Martinez
          John Smoltz
          Gary Sheffield
          Nomar Garciaparra
          Carlos Delgado

          1. WIthout looking at anything:
            Yes Yes Probably Maybe Doubtful Doubtful
            Those are how I'd vote.

            Yes Yes EventuallyYes ProbablyNot No No
            Those are my predictions.

    1. I don't care for Springsteen but I still voted for the four songs I have on my MP3 player.

        1. This was harder than voting for the Hall of Fame.

          1. Long Walk Home
          2. The River
          3. My Hometown
          4. Brothers Under the Bridge
          5. The Promise

        3. My favorite Bruce songs rotates depending on what mood Im in. Right now, its generic classic rock staples:

          Kitty's Back
          Dancing in the Dark
          Hungry Heart
          Jungleland
          Prove It All Night

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