69 thoughts on “December 22, 2014: Felicitations, Padre!”

  2. Word is the Twins have extended Hughes for 3 years/$42 million, which will keep him under contract through 2019. If that's the case, it seems like a pretty fair deal.

    2. I'm not expecting him to break the K/BB record again, but if he's a similar pitcher to last year, and gets a little bit better combination of fielding and luck, this contract will look pretty darn good.

      1. He put up a 6.1 fWAR season last year, which he's never done before. (B-ref had him at 4.3 rWAR, which strikes me as a fairly large gap.) If he can be even two-thirds as good as that from 2015-2019 he's giving the Twins a pretty screaming deal.

        1. I certainly agree. Here's bbref's explanation of their flavor of WAR:

          Our WAR starts with runs allowed by the pitcher and compares it to the league average pitcher (adjusting for quality of opposition), parks pitched in, and quality of defense behind the pitcher.

          Hughes gave up a lot more runs than his FIP would've suggested (which explains some of the discrepancy, since Fangraphs uses a lot of FIP, and bbref uses a lot of "runs allowed"), which is where I was talking about the team's defense hopefully picking him up a bit. Either way, he probably won't pitch quite as well as he did in 2014, but if he's even close to the same pitcher, it'll be great.

          So, uh... what you said.

          1. I figured something like that had to be the case; thanks for contextualizing it. I'm curious to see how those parameters are adjusted based with Statcast coming. (Assuming third parties like b-ref, BP, & Fangraphs are given access to some of the data.)

            1. BR right now assumes team defense applies equally to all pitchers. While I doubt the fielders consciously change their approach, there are few enough starts the season stats can be biased. In Verlander's MVP season for instance, the fielders performed better (above average even!) in his starts compared to the team average. Now perhaps Verlander inspired them to perform better, but team fielding isn't uniformly distributed.

    4. I can dig it. Its made even sweeter if he stays healthy and performs close to what he did last year as a slap in the face to NY.

    5. Mike Berardino ‏@MikeBerardino now

      Hughes' new salaries (2015-19):
      $9.2 M
      $9.2 M
      $13.2 M
      $13.2 M
      $13.2 M Plus
      $200K/yr in performance bonuses.

    2. This is like the opposite of "A prophet is not without honor except in his own town, among his relatives and in his own home."

      BUD SELIG IS THE ANTI-CHRIST!

    1. I mean, I'm just guessing (maybe unfairly) that C.J. Anderson is not going to rush for negative 50 yards while fumbling four times.

      Yahoo is still giving me a one perfect chance. That seems.... high.

    3. Thanks, guys. Pretty fortunate run. I need 25 points from Anderson tonight in my son's league or he'll win his own league for the third year in a row.

  6. Hey, my worthless computer is back from the dead! I put up a movie post.

    Still sick. Yesterday I felt a little better, and today I feel worse. I guess this is my life now.

  7. Tom Haberstroh details the most underrated and overrated players in the league. The most underrated (Tyson Chandler) was jettisoned from the Knicks (ha!). The most overrated player? Kobe, natch.

    Kobe Bryant, G, Los Angeles Lakers
    ORPM: -0.2 | DRPM: -2.9 | RPM: -3.1 | WAR: -0.3
    Yes, offensive RPM says that Bryant is hurting the Lakers' offense even though he's averaging more than 25 points per game. As I pointed out in the BIG Number, Bryant alone has taken more contested midrange jumpers than 12 NBA teams, according to NBAsavant.com. And he's been below average in making them. That predictable inefficiency has dragged the Lakers' offensive output down to just 101.9 points per 100 possessions.

    It's about as hollow a 25.2 points per game as it gets. At this stage of his career, he's done being a plus defender. With all of his energy and attention devoted to the offensive end, he ranks dead last in defensive RPM. He dies on off-ball screens and routinely gambles for steals, which leaves his teammates out to dry. But hey, as long as he's playing, we'll keep watching.

    The other night he made a terrible pass (shocking, I know, that he would ever pass the ball) that resulted in a turnover and barked at his teammate like it was their fault. Below replacement level AND the highest paid player in the league. I've softened on Kobe a little over the years, but I will not cry about him going out like this.

    1. It's kind of interesting to look back on how Tyson Chandler's career has contrasted to that of the other big he came into the league with from high school with the Bulls: Eddy Curry.

      1. Chandler has carved out a really nice career despite not having much of an offensive game at all and I sure like him in Dallas a whole lot more. I'm pretty sure he's happy to be out of NY, too (duh).

      1. And Boogie Cousins with 29-14. It's not too far-fetched at all to say that the Wolves could have Ricky, Curry, Boogie, and K-Love right now.

          1. Gotta figure that if they had drafted Noah they would have gotten better and not have actually been in position to draft both Curry and Cousins. But if they draft Curry instead of Flynn, they might still have gotten Boogie because Rambis was the coach and they were sucktastic, plus no Ricky that year.

            1. I kind of have an Edge of Tomorrow feeling about most of the Wolves' history, but without much hope that Tom Cruise will save us.

  8. I'm enjoying this warm December weather as much as the next guy, but I have to drive to ND in two days. I imagine 250 miles of ice is coming.

    1. I have boards up and a poly liner down for our first backyard ice rink. The temp can drop below freezing at any time now, as far as I'm concerned.

      1. I tried to do a backyard rink last year and found that the yard had a slight slope that I hadn't accounted for and the 2nd-hand poly liner had a few rips that were also unaccounted for. I must have pumped 300+ gallons into that thing before giving up. Top inch or two would freeze and then the water would leak out from underneath leaving huge pockets of air (like 3'x5'x1.5" deep) that cracked and broke when you put weight on it. Never did get the thing to work.

        1. I tried last year too, but the crazy weather kicked my behind. It was either too cold to run the hose or snowing, which doesn't help ice-making. Got a big jump on it this year: boards have been up since the weekend before T-giving and I bought new poly two weeks ago. The plastic alone was $170, but this is my x-mas present to myself. Fingers crossed.

      2. Daughter doesn't skate outside. We went to the Minneapolis market last night and they advertised an ice rink. Daughter brought her skates, but I left them in the car because warm. There was the rink on Nicollet, but instead of ice it was UHMW plastic! I would never let her take her skates out on that. Pfft.

        1. Hockey teams in Florida and Arizona, but outdoor rinks made of plastic in Minnesota? What is the world coming to?

            1. I don't know if it's UHMW, but the plastic training rink where my son's hockey team had pictures taken completely dulled out all of the boys skates after less than a half hour.

    2. Came back to TLOSBW (The Land Of Sky Blue Waters) on Saturday afternoon to some snow on the ground in Scandia. Late Sunday, had to drive NBBW to the airport in snow/freezing rain/rain. Rained all day Monday, slick driveway almost cleared out. Waiting for the shoe to drop...

    1. How bad do you have to be to get cut when you have that much left on your deal and it isn't an amnesty situation? SVG, I love you babe, but you are gonna hurt over that one.

      1. like they said, Josh Smith was gonna re-define the term "stretch forward".

        According to Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo, the Pistons will use the "stretch provision" on Smith's contract — meaning the ~$26 million that's left on the deal will be spread out over the next five years for salary cap purposes, instead of just the next two years. With the NBA salary cap set it explode before the 2016-17 season, cutting Smith won't be as much of a financial burden as it seems. As Grantland's Zach Lowe notes, Smith will count $5.4 million against the cap in each of the next five years

        1. SVG: I gotta get rid of that Smith, he's driving me up a tree. Any takers out there?
          Assistant GM: Nope. Not a one.
          SVG: C'mon, son, you gotta do better than that.
          Assistant GM: Dangled our #1 for next year and still no interest.
          SVG: Well, hell. And he's gonna suck up $13 million in cap room for each of the next two years. I can't wait any longer. Not even until the year after when he's an expiring.
          Cap Guru: Actually, we can cut him and it'll only count about $5 million for each of the next five years.
          SVG: $5 million for five years. Hmmm. I might be dead by then if I don't get him out of here. Let's do it. Where's my diet Pepsi?
          Assistant GM: Right here, boss.
          SVG: Effing Dumars.

      1. I think I saw a headline somewhere about the Kings possibly being interested.

        Not even at the veteran minimum salary. Ugh.

        One bright spot -- he's only jacked up 37 3pt attempts this year in 28 games (1.3/g), compared to 265 last year in 77 (3.4 per game). But he's a lousy shooter (only 40.7 pct on 2pt attempts this year, 24.3 pct on 3s, 46.8 pct from the line!) AND he's a terrible defender. I don't know why SVG was even playing him -- or why he'd benched Greg Monroe rather than going with the twin towers of Monroe and Drummond.

  12. Speaking of Kurt Rambis, he is an assistant coach for the 5-25 New York Knicks. Everything about that is awesome.

      2. This is shaping up to be the best regular NBA season in recent memory. There are 13 teams, in my estimation, that have a legitimate shot at the Finals. Plus, it's not the same cast of characters. Sure, there are about six of the same clubs out West, but GSW is awesome and so is Portland. No Celtics or Lakers. Washington, Toronto, and the Hawks have a pulse. And the Knicks suck.

        I'm sick of hearing about all the tanking talk. BS. Clubs that can't compete need to have some sort of rebuilding plan. And tanking doesn't guarantee hitting the lottery, nor does hitting the lottery guarantee success.

        1. Don't forget the exciting drama of the Sacramento Kings rebuilding plan: trade for a new starting PG, hire a new coach, trade the new starting PG in mid-season, get another new starting PG, fire the new coach in mid-season despite a marked improvement in the quality of the product on the floor, then flirt with trading the new, new starting PG in mid-season for yet another starting PG.

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