72 thoughts on “October 1, 2020: GOSO”

  1. so, the roster churning will begin soon

    who do you think, and who would you like to see a change of scenery?

    I think Marwin and Eddie are gone. I think May and Odo comes back if they accept team friendly deals, but why would they? They are gone. Nellie is a FA but I think they work out a deal for him. I think they decline the team option on Romo. Im guessing there will be a lot of turnover on the bottom end of the relief pitching corps.

    I would like them to see if they can get anything for Sano. I would like LaMonte Wade Jr to take over the Jake Cave roving OFer role.

    1. Rosario isn't a free agent until 2022 so the Twins would have to decline arbitration on him. He was paid $7.75 million this year (before pro-rating, I'm not bothering with any of that) so $11 million next year? That could go either way for me. If they're willing to not play games with Kirilloff's service time, then easy to pick him over Rosario.

      1. I feel like given no minor league baseball this year, any known quantity goes up in value, so I think $11M or so is a no-brainer for Rosario--some other team will see value in that contract and I could see them getting another bullpen arm or prospect(s) in return.

      2. Nelson Cruz is a free agent. He seems likely to be able to negotiate a bump up from the $12 million the Twins paid this year and probably is worth it for a one-year deal. Always hard to say for a guy his age.

        As sean says, Eddie is arb-eligible and won't be a FA until after 2021. He's only 28. Points to consider: (1) he's only 28. (2) he had a career-HIGH walk rate this year (8.8 pct) and basically tied his career-low K rate (14.7 pct). It is possible that he's gaining a wee bit of plate discipline as he enters the tail end of his prime. But his BABIP this season (248) was by far his career low. Probably short-season weirdness, so I would not put too much emphasis on his relatively low BA or SLG. His ISO was pretty much in line with what he did 2017-2019.

        I think we know who he is at this point. He could improve marginally on optics by continuing slight improvements with plate discipline and by getting his BABIP back to around 300. I think he's right around a league-average starting LFer. Either sign him a contract that is commensurate with that assessment, or give him a one-year deal and trade him if you think Kirilloff is going to provide similar performance for cheaper.

        Berrios: lock him up. A five-year deal, covering his last 2 of Arb-eligibility and 3 years of free agency looks pretty smart to me.
        Buxton: Arb eligible this year and next. I would like to see him locked up, long-term, similar to Berrios.
        Romo has a $5 m team option. I am on the fence.
        Pineda is a FA. I think they should try to retain him. ZIPS projects him to be worth only 1.6 WAR next year and 1.4 WAR in 2022. That seems low to me, but...i dunno. If they can secure him for something similar to his 2-year, $20 million current deal....
        Odo: hard to judge based on the truncated and injury-riddled season. I'd probably lean toward a more team-friendly, 2- or 3-year deal than his current $17.8 million, 1-year deal. He had a career year in 2019, leading to that deal. I don't think the market will be quite as friendly to him at age-31 and coming off injuries. Maybe 2 years, $30 million???
        Marwin: He has some value as a utility guy capable of playing a lot of positions. I don't see how you assess his bat based on the short season this year. As bad as his bat was, it was better than Adrianza's, and Edrianza is also a FA. I think you try to retain one of those two as a switch-hitting utility guy.
        Adrianza: see Marwin.
        Alex Avila: [shoulder shrug]. How valuable is a no-hit-but-still-high-OBP, good glove, 34-year old catcher? Can they retain him for $5 million? Are there better options out there for the right-handed platoon catcher?
        Rich Hill: he was a good, cheap gamble for this year, but an age-41 starter with injury history probably isn't worth much on the market. Unless he's blocking somebody, I would consider re-upping him for around the same $3 million. If he walks, no biggie.
        Trevor May: re-up him. He probably belongs either in the setup role or in a closer role. I'd probably offer him something up to $5 million per year for 2 years.
        Tyler Clippard: he was very effective in his limited role. Re-up for something similar to May.
        Tyler Duffey: Arb this year and next. Go to arb.
        Taylor Rogers: Arb this year and next. Go to arb. Some of the shine came off of him this year, but this year was weird. His BABIP was way out of whack compared to his career numbers. I bet he comes back strong.

        1. Pineda is a FA.

          Twins have an option for next year at $10 million. My guess is the projections for him are off because of his injury and then suspension and the resulting small sample size.

          Odo. ... He had a career year in 2019, leading to that deal.

          It was a qualifying offer so it's priced automatically at something like average of top N (125?) players. He's now free of the burden of the QO so I bet will want to test the market even despite his negative luck year.

          1. thanks for those clarifications. I missed the Pineda option. I hope they exercise that.

            As for Odo, I say good luck to him on the market. I don't know or understand the QO details you highlighted -- was that because he was a restricted FA, and now is unrestricted?

            MadBum (age-30 last year) signed with the Snakes last off-season for $17m per. Some others likewise at the top of the game (Price, Kershaw, Scherzer, deGrom, Lester). I don't think those are good comps to Odo, although MadBum arguably is.

            Others signing contracts recently at age-30 with their average annual values:

            pitcher year signed years AAV
            Mikolas 2019 4 17m
            Cobb 2018 4 14.25m
            Pineda 2020 2 10m (weird; I thought BA had him as a FA but as you say...)
            Porcello 2020 1 10m
            Richards 2019 2 7.75m
            Smyly 2020 1 4m
            1. was that because he was a restricted FA, and now is unrestricted?

              Something like that. It's not the same as a restricted free agent in other leagues, but he was a free agent with restrictions. His signing team would lose some number of picks based on amount of revenue sharing they receive plus the amount they signed the player for. Some players, like Cole, that doesn't matter but it does affect the mid-level players a lot more. The player has to decide whether to accept the QO very early in the offseason so they aren't allowed to see the market to develop first. Odorizzi maybe could have done better last year but barring 2020, would have done better this year.

      3. I should have fleshed it out this morning but I was running late. My thinking on Rosario is that payroll has to come down a bit next year because no ticket sales came in this year. The Twins would absolutely find a home for him for a one or two low level (cheap!) prospects in return while they already have his replacement in Kiriloff and or Rooker

        1. I don't feel that there's any way that another team will trade much of anything for a guy who is a borderline non-tender candidate.

          I'd say keep him. We're hoping that Larnach, Kirilloff, and (maybe) Rooker are up next year. Having Eddie is a nice insurance policy against one of them having a rough rookie season or any of the outfielders getting injured.

          I'd say let Cruz walk. Someone is going to pay him too much for a couple of years. I've loved him on the team, but his time will come -- there's a reason that he's in mostly uncharted territory, so far as older super sluggers are concerned.

              1. I would give him a 2-year deal. Sure, at his age he could fall off a cliff, but he's only had one off year (2018) in the last five seasons, and I think it's the sort of signing that helps you to fill out the rest of the roster with guys who want to compete for a ring. Losing him really sends the wrong message to other potential signings unless you have some other big moves to make that can clearly offset losing him.

                Also, the Twins are in a window where they should push their budget limits to the extreme and back off later if/when the team falls on its face in the regular season.

    2. I liked Marwin's versatility when his OPS was about league average. He had a bad 60 games this year, hard to know what to make of that, but generally speaking he's past his prime so in the spirit of moving on a year too early rather than a year too late, it would make sense to consider alternatives.

      Sano still has crazy power--they could definitely get *something* for him. I kind of see him a bit like Delmon Young. He's got some strengths, but enough weaknesses that I don't know if the entire package is worthwhile, and his strengths are strong enough that I could see someone out there overvaluing them and convincing themselves they can overlook/mitigate/solve the weaknesses. I do think they need power at first base, but he's clearly not all that defensively and he's going to be expensive sooner than later.

      1. Marwin also runs like he's got two anchors tied to him. The lack of range at third really showed in this past series.

        Sano is so streaky, but I don't see them getting anything in return for him, and he doesn't make much sense as a non-tender, so I'd say just keep rolling with it.

        1. League average sprint speed is 27 feet/s. Buxton is now fifth in the league at 30.0 feet/s. Donaldson is second to last on the team at 25.0 ft/s, barely losing to Cruz's 25.1 ft/s. Gonzalez is next, tied with Garver at 25.5 ft/s.

          1. the ESPN guys yesterday were really talking up how slow the Twins are, other than Buxton. Where do you find the sprint speed numbers?

            1. Looking at the statcast running splits that Sean linked, it doesn't seem like the Twins are *that* slow, at least for the 11 runners that qualified. Buxton (98th percentile), Kepler (78), Cave (70), Polanco (69), and Rosario (54) are all above median for 90ft speed. Arraez is 40th percentile for 90 feet, but 55th percentile or above for 10ft to 40ft -- I guess he just hits his top speed quicker than most runners. Like if you race Polanco and Arraez, Arraez essentially keeps pace until about 45 feet, and then Polanco gradually gains on him.

              Sano, Jeffers, Cruz, Donaldson, and Marwin are all slow -- but also primarily corner infield, DH, and C. So I would expect most teams to have slow players there.

              If I compare the Twins with the Astros, the main difference seems to be that Altuve is a lot quicker than Arraez and Toro is a lot quicker than Donaldson/Gonzalez. I mean, Brantley's faster than Cruz, but they are both slow, so meh.

              Granted this is a pretty informal comparison, but based on this, I wouldn't consider the Twins to be an especially slow team. The biggest opportunities to improve the speed are probably Arraez, Polanco, and Rosario. Cruz and Donaldson both hit well enough that we shouldn't really worry about their speed. You could find a quicker 1B than Sano, but I would be more worried about OBP and defense there without taking a big hit on power--speed is really not the biggest priority there. Arraez is probably good enough overall that you don't worry too much about his speed, but given his slowness, I wouldn't expect him to age gracefully as a middle infielder.

              1. Arraez had an ankle injury to close the 2019 season and had knee tendinitis this year. I would bet those did a lot to sap his speed and might move him to DH early.

              2. My take on the ESPN guys is that they were full of crap, and mostly taking the "the Twins hit a lot of homers so they must be slow" logic.

                almost no teams really run all that much any more. There's a reason for that. And it isn't because being slow is valued per se.

                1. Are you saying the ESPN crew didn't do their homework?

                  I'm guessing we just did more research than they did.

  2. I would like them to see if they can get anything for Sano.

    This has been my request for a long time, but they've waited too long. That bat made of swiss cheese isn't going to help the return. Hopefully they can find some dumb team to overpay.

    1. They might be able to get something for him but I doubt it would be much:

      Similar Batters through 27
      Joc Pederson (954.9)
      Kyle Schwarber (950.0)
      Randal Grichuk (946.3)
      Michael Conforto (943.7)
      David Justice (942.4)
      Dave Kingman (937.9)
      Carlos Quentin (937.0)
      Bo Jackson (936.8)
      Wally Post (936.0)
      Frank Howard (935.9)

      1. I agree with both of you. Would love to see us move him, but very doubtful we would get much. On top of his inconsistency at the plate, there is also the risk of off field issues and injuries that make him unlikely to draw a ton of interest without a discounted return.

        Rosario, I am ok with keeping around as long as he is slotted in the bottom third of the order.

        In general, I think we see a fair amount of turnover on this roster.

        1. I think how much turnover we see depends on what the goal of the front office is. If the goal is to remain competitive within the division, then the current roster may stay largely intact. If the goal is to actually win a championship, there will need to be some significant turnover. And it could be that some of the turnover will come from making room for rookies. But what they have now is a good team, not a championship team.

          1. That's a great way to put it and if the playoffs are expanded next year just being good is probably enough to make the playoffs.

          2. This team is reminding me somewhat of the 2003/2004 Twins - it was time for some healthy roster turnover - Mientkiewicz giving way to Morneau, that sort of thing.

            What that actually looks like, I'm not entirely sure. I paid more attention to our minor league players around that time, and I think the Twins had more of a position-by-position approach in those days, and less flexibility than they demonstrate now.

            I don't dislike Rosario the way some seem to. I don't dislike Sano the way some seem to. Sano has had very, very good stretches. But neither would I be sad if they made the decision to cut bait with either. I was really down on the Twins' offseason last year, until the late Donaldson signing and Maeda trade. Those were both really good moves that seemed smart after their first efforts at signing pitchers fell short.

            1. We've got batters who are good but are slump-prone; Kirilloff is a pure hitter and should help Arraez in improving our OB%. Could really use some RH help though.

                1. They lucked into super high-SLG last year and that fell flat this season. It happens but time to adjust.

            2. I don't necessarily dislike Sano, but realistically this is your last chance to deal him before he gets expensive and I don't think he's going to be worth his free agent price tag. The power is great, but he's not giving you good value defensively, or on the bases, or hitting for contact, and the stories about his allegedly sexist behavior in the minor still stick with me.

    2. I don't know. I am somewhat hopeful because it only takes one sucker (like when the Rays were looking to deal Delmon Young and they found Billy Smith), and with no minor league baseball this year, I think teams are going to be valuing experienced major league players more highly in the offseason. Also, if the rumors are true (maybe it's been confirmed already) and they stick with the expanded playoff field for next year, more teams are going to consider themselves contenders, and Sano is the kind of guy you would bring to a contender that wants a power bat and thinks they have a hitting coach that can fix his contact power or whatever.

      Sano's value also goes up if the NL keeps the DH going forward.

  3. If the Lakers sweep the Heat, will we continue to see the "Butler is an underrated star" stories or will we see the "West is ten times better than the East" stories? I tend to believe that the Heat made it to the finals because the East just isn't that good.

      1. Hey, no shame. I'll root for the Yankees if Trout signs with them at age 42 or whatever to try to win a championship

        1. For me, it's LeBron >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> anyone else in the league.

          I don't watch basketball, I don't watch a specific team, but I'll watch LeBron in the finals.

    1. If anything is underrated in Miami, it's their front office. Butler is good enough to be earning a max contract for now, and even putting my personal feelings about his jackass behavior with the Wolves aside, he's still not so good that he should be considered underrated while having that max contract.

      But the Heat seem to do a really good job of staying competitive despite not fully committing to a rebuild and at least this year did a great job finding pieces that fit together -- kind of the opposite of the 76ers.

  4. Having slept on it for a night, I'm still incredibly disappointed this team couldn't make a better postseason run, but I'm also happy none of them are sick and that baseball has made it this far through the season with no COVID-related deaths. Yes, they are young and healthy, but even athletes can have pre-existing conditions and with 200,000+ dead in the US alone from a virus that didn't even exist last year, just being healthy is something to feel good about.

      1. I also like to factor in that there are longer term effects to covid and even a pretty small drop in performance and potential could be devastating to a pro athlete career.

    1. One of my favorite sandwich memories was at a place in Northfield. Thick-cut, fresh-baked whole wheat bread, with avocado, tomato, red onion, sprouts, cream cheese and mayo. Would have been even better with something like Muenster or even Brie or Cambozola.

      Ham definitely was a good choice.

  5. Has any heard if there is any movement to change the Cleveland Baseball Club's name? I know there was some talk of it after George Floyd's murder and the Washington change but haven't heard much since. If so, yesterday could've been the last game with the

    Spoiler SelectShow


    1. There's a certain Cleveland fan out there that has their eye on the Tweeter for the name Spiders. As I use that name in my game logs, they would always give a thumbs up when it came up. I'm sure they wouldn't mind me sharing this message after our recent mutual following (quick note, this was sent before both our teams were unceremoniously booted):

      If you haven't already, *please* sign this petition -- it's nearing 5,000 signatures! How great would it be to hit that while Cleveland is in the playoffs? (The name change talk may have quieted down somewhat, but rest assured: the deeper Cleveland makes it into the postseason, the more attention and media scrutiny the team will receive regarding the name -- just like with "Chief Wahoo" in 2016. This petition can help shape that conversation!)

      Also, whether or not you've signed, *please* share this any way you can! Facebook, Instagram, anywhere… If you find just one more person to support our cause, that makes a huge difference!

      No matter what, I hope you're well!

      Go Cleveland baseball!!!


      1. I still prefer Spiders, but the Cleveland team in that OOTP league I joined is the Stevedores and that would also be a friggin awesome name.

  6. Hey guys! I'm listening to the Sox/A's game, and they said the Twins have lost eighteen consecutive playoff games! Funny no one's mentioned that anywhere before.

      1. I hope someday Copenhagen plays Cologne in a CL or Europa League game and the chryon says

        FCK 0 - 0 FCK

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