2011 Twins Game Logs

2011 Game 74: Twins at Brewers

256 Comments

Scott Baker vs Randy Wolf

One thing that jumped out at me as I perused Light Rail's B-R page was his strikeout rate: 8.6 K/9. What? It did increase from 7.3 in 2009 to 7.8 in 2010, but I wasn't expecting another 0.8 jump. However, the season is just shy of 50% complete and so, how much of the increase is real? Fortunately, that was recently answered.

What we want is the K/(PA-IBB-HBP)* line, and that says at 126 denominator units, 50% is the player's ability and 50% is the mean. Baker has 369 PAs, which means 74.5% of the 8.6 K/9 is him while the other 25.5% would be regression to the mean. The mean we want would be Baker's historical performance with however much regression is needed.

Taking the last three years, Baker has 2240 PAs, which means we need 94.7% of those three years and 5.3% league average. Baker's three year average for those three years is 7.5 K/9, which is reasonably close to the league average of 6.8. Let's just use 100% Baker. More rounding error.

Putting it all together means the best estimate for his talent right now is 8.3 K/9. Combined with the miniscule (0.09) increase in his BB/9 rate equals good things for his results. His xFIP so far is easily his best yet and his FIP is slightly better than from 2008. Finally, an ace!

* I'm calling these PAs from now on, despite it actually not being a plate appearance. He has one intentional walk and four hit batters, so it's basically rounding error anyway.

256 thoughts on “2011 Game 74: Twins at Brewers”

  1. Baker pitching like an ace feels like about 5 years of a big fat "I told you so (that he's pretty good)".

  2. so, uhh, the question in the BP piece is "how large a sample do we need on a rate statistic to get a "good" prediction of a player's full-season deviation from the league average (or player's historical average) on the rate?

    1. ahh. Ok, I get it. You are giving us a weighted average of his performance. Duh me.

    2. That's how I understood it. Not necessarily full-season either, as some of the rates take several years.

      1. yea, I don't really believe some of those "stabilization" rates.

        the normal approximation to the binomial of course is "good" for middling rates (say, between .3 and .7) and not so good for very low or very high rates. I think that's most of what is going on in that table. With rates that are very low or very high, it takes a pretty big sample size to tell the difference between two samples (or to reject the null that a dude's stat is indistinguishable from some baseline value).

    2. I heard that too. Wasn't sure if I was hearing things or not. Someone should tell him about Jason Morneau.

      1. There's a whoooooole lot of "You never hear about guys like, A, B, and C." Sure, but if you're calling a game in which they appear, couldja do a little research?

        1. To be fair, the words "Michael Cuddyer" and "similar to Ryan Braun" also came out of their mouths.

    3. At work late again, going to listen on audio. I'm thinking Uecker is much better bet than the Twins' radio team.

      Oh crap, I just realized that next week I'll be working during all the Dodgers games. Vin Scully time.

  13. Ok, I'm out.

    Tonight's menu: yellow dal, jasmine rice. Kirkland Amber (nicely malty and the price is excellent).

    1. Jasmine rice is one of the unhealthiest things you can eat. You should replace it with Basmati rice.

    2. Nice and crispy pan fried chicken thighs, crap-tacular "steamer bag" of veggies, and some homemade pilsner.

      1. WINNING.

        I actually lied. I'm making a salad with roaasted yellow beats, and a cabbage and white bean dish inspired by CH's chard dish from the other night.

  14. Twins Scouting Report via the Brewers feed:

    They get runs in clutch moments
    They don't beat themselves with mistakes
    Ron Gardenhire is the right personality

      1. Only if the Twins were winning. As they aren't, the scouting report still holds.

  20. Best part about going to tomorrow's game is that, since half the stadium will be Twin's fans, there will actually be some baseball knowledge in the park.

    1. Just because Bert's in the park doesn't mean there can't be baseball knowledge there too.

  26. The Brewer's broadcast team is really railing against the win statistic here tonight, although I doubt they will let it sink in.

    1. Yeah, I never get the argument, essentially "If only he'd had more support he'd have more of this statistic we all value so much." Connect the dots, guys. It's a rotten, stupid statistic. One of the worst in any sport.

  28. Ugh, Mauer. Itt seems you could stack three outfields in left and four infielders right of second base and Mauer would never get another hit again.

  33. Does anyone have any thoughts as to why the Milwaukee "M" on the mound is florescent green?

      1. I think I like hj's explanation below better. Mostly because I'm not there for it.

      2. Also, strange that they picked a color reminiscent of nuclear waste for green week...

  35. The Brewers' TV crew doesn't know that they can't show highlights during the first pitch of a _elm_n AB.

    2. Yeah, that was pretty good. That almost makes up for them talking about the win statistic for so long.

  42. I'm just listening on the radio, so someone please tell me. Was Cuddyer playing Randy freaking Wolf deeper than he was Corey Hart?

  46. Apparently, Young hasn't thrown the ball well this year and the Brewers "came in intending to run on him." Del bothers me as much as the next guy, but has his arm really been a disaster?

    1. His arm is probably the best part of his game as long as he's throwing to the right base. Strong and accurate.

    1. In Baker's defense, Braun had no business hitting that pitch that well. (neither did Wolf on his second hit, for that matter.)

      1. But according to the Brewer's broadcasters, Nishi is just a lazy Japanese guy. (seriously, they were all up in his shit about not getting out to try to make a play on that fluky duck fart that landed in between Revere and Delm_n.)

  52. Russostrib RT @TSNBobMcKenzie: Blockbuster: SJS trades Setoguchi, Charlie Coyle and 1st pick (No. 28) to MIN for Brent Burns and a 2nd rd pick. #tsn

        1. I like Setoguchi a lot. I don't know much about Coyle, but he seems like the kind of player I'd like to see them adding. I'm very interested to see who they get at 28 now too. I'll miss Burns too, but he was their best trade chip by far, and they ought to still have enough decent players on the blue line (although none as good as Burns when he was playing in control).

    1. heh, ever since i started listening to that album, i've been waiting to use that. homeboy going 0-fer-13 made it take forever.

  63. Ooof, Nishi does not appear to be adapting to the American game very well so far.

  64. Heh, a commercial with Fielder studying Differential Equations. I bet he would have failed the test I gave today.

  70. Whew, for a second I had a nightmare that Burnett was going to come on to face Fielder.

    1. That's the worst thing I could ever imagine happening...ever.

      Mijares doesn't seem to be faring too well, though.

        1. Well, I believe Burnett would have walked Fielder, then given up a grand slam to McGhee.

  71. wow. shooter hunt had a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad inning tonight.

      2. Bradenton Bottom of the 7th
        Pitcher Change: Shooter Hunt replaces Andrew Albers.
        David Rubinstein walks.
        Benji Gonzalez walks. David Rubinstein to 2nd.
        Robbie Grossman walks. David Rubinstein to 3rd. Benji Gonzalez to 2nd.
        Adalberto Santos out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jonathan Goncalves. David Rubinstein scores. Benji Gonzalez to 3rd.
        Aaron Baker walks. Robbie Grossman to 2nd.
        Calvin Anderson singles on a line drive to left fielder Reggie Williams. Benji Gonzalez scores. Robbie Grossman scores. Aaron Baker to 2nd.
        Elevys Gonzalez called out on strikes.
        Evan Chambers walks. Aaron Baker to 3rd. Calvin Anderson to 2nd.
        Bradenton Marauders catcher Carlos Paulino ejected by HP umpire Brian De Brauwere.
        Offensive Substitution: Pinch hitter Ramon Cabrera replaces Carlos Paulino.
        Ramon Cabrera walks. Aaron Baker scores. Calvin Anderson to 3rd. Evan Chambers to 2nd.
        David Rubinstein walks. Calvin Anderson scores. Evan Chambers to 3rd. Ramon Cabrera to 2nd.
        Nicholas Romero remains in the game as the first baseman.
        Pitcher Change: Steven Liddle replaces Shooter Hunt, batting 7th.

        Woof.

          2. whimmers and him are going to be trying to run scams on the dealers in the pit soon...

  77. First of all, why wasn't Perkins in to face Fielder? Second, once Mijares got to 3-0, why did he even pitch to Fielder? Walk him.

    2. Chuck James would have gotten him to ground out even if he had been brought in with the 3-0 count.

      2. I generally feel that Mijares gets a bit more flak than he's earned, he's been pretty brutal this year. It's hard to pitch well when you immediately throw two ball pitches to the batter.

  80. I don't like this Joe Mauer very much. I want him to please remember that it is not spring training anymore.

    1. I had to bring the volume down on em. Its all well and good when the Twins are winning, but they really are dense.

  83. Will anyone hold it against me if I mercilessly boo _elm_n tomorrow? I'll be in the left field bleachers.

      1. Well, he struck out horribly in the 8th, so his best hope is to catch the last out after the other Twin's hitters take the lead.

  84. Top of the ninth inning is Valencia-Hughes-Nishioka-PH.
    Bench is Butters, Rivera, Repko, Tolbert, Tosoni.
    Who gets PH'd for? With whom?
    I'd say Tosoni for Nishi, then Tolbert (double-switch if they can score, so pitcher replaces Tosoni).

  86. Ugh, Baker is going to take a loss because Hughes can't snag a freekin throw and Mijares doesn't know how to intentionally walk the Brewer's biggest hitter on a 3-0 count.

    2. Hell, Baker should have walked him. McGehee sucks. Why do you even THINK about pitching to Fielder there? Especially with a bullpen formed mostly from gasoline and fire.

    1. That's why I have been unable to follow the Brewer's semi-regularly, because that's what I'd have to put up with day-to-day. At least with DicknBerts bs, its while watching a team I am truly attached to.

  97. Seriously, I'm extrememly frustrated by the luck of baseball. How many dude's did Baker jam only to see them get a hit (or a run-scoring double in Braun's case.) Frustrating, but I can't feel too bad about this loss because of that.

    1. I'm looking forward to D-SPAN2 getting right so we can have Denard & Ben in the field together. Maybe we'll have less doubles that fall in after Cuddyer & Young can't lope to them in time.

      1. That was brutal (mostly from Cuddyer). This game should have been a Twins win. Here's to hoping Frankie shuts em down tomorrow.

        1. I think that Cuddyer thinks he has Revere's speed. I only saw the highlights on Gameday, but it looked like every one of those doubles in the corner (Hart, Fielder, and Braun) fell in just past Cuddyer's outstretched arm. And it looked like he was playing all those guys in the gap. Oh Michael.

          1. I don't think there was a lot he was going to do about Fielder's hit, it was a sharp one. But the other two, yeah, Revere or Span would have easily had both.

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