Today the Twins will be doing their "Opener" experiment, sending Gabriel Moya to the mound to pitch the first inning only. Zack Littell will take over in the second inning as the "Primary" pitcher. The quotation marks are mine, intended to convey my high level of skepticism with this approach. The Rangers will counter with Yohander Mendez as their starting pitcher. I guess my point is that if you're going to experiment with opener and primary pitchers, it really doesn't make sense to be using as your primary pitcher a rookie who has pitched in just two games, who lost them both, and who carries an ERA of 18.90 to the mound. I don't see how much you're really going to learn from doing it this way with this particular couple of pitchers. I'm not opposed to innovation and evolution, nor to data-driven strategy, but until I see hard evidence that this approach will help the Twins win more ballgames, I'm going to cross my arms over my chest, shake my head and frown a lot, spit sideways in disdain on occasion, and shoo the neighborhood kids off of my lawn. Free Buxton!
All posts by Twayn
2018 Game 130: Formerly Philadelphia vs. Formerly Washington
Happy Berrios Day! Eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we have no game.
2018 Game 123: Pantera Tigris vs. Gemini
The season is slipping away faster than I realized, just six week to go before the Twins are playing meaningful October golf. It's kind of nice not having to worry about making the playoffs anymore, you can just sit back and watch and kind of, well, you know, like, abide. Your blood pressure stays low, your heart rate stays regular. You can let go of this year's disappointments, and there were many, and just see what potential is there for next year. Tyler Austin can mash some taters. Miguel Sano is taking much better at bats with good results, he's lost weight and he's quick as a cat at the hot corner. I think he got the message his demotion was intended to send. We learned that a half season of Polanco is better than a half season without Polanco. Barring another freak injury we'll see Buxton ranging in center field soon, which is always good on the eyes and so much better than watching Jake Cave dive and flop like he's playing soccer. Forsythe is hitting so far over his head he wears his hat on his butt these days. Eddie Rosario continues to play like an All-Star, sporting a .295/.335/.496/.831 slash line. Kepler hasn't developed much beyond his first two seasons, hitting in the .230's, but still has performed to a very average 100 OPS+ and I believe he's still got plenty of upside betwixt his head and the ceiling. Joe Mauer can still hit and catch a little, and if the front office doesn't sign him to a new market-value deal I will pout like a three year old all winter. Falvey and Levine gathered a lot of young assets and shed a lot of payroll and in their trade deadline purge, and a lot more is coming off the books in October. We'll see what the brain trust can accomplish with all that money during the cold and dark part of the year because a lot of their bets from last winter went so far south that they could see the equator. Odoreater (5-7, 4.44 ERA) on the mound for the Twins today, he pitched well but not very long in his last start, going 5 and 2/3 with just 2 earned runs of 4 hits and 2 walks with 9 strikeouts. The Tigers send Jacob Turner and his SSS 20.25 ERA to the hill. Play ball!
2018 Game 117: New Kids on the Block vs. Tigers
Is it September yet? No, it's not, but it kind of feels that way with all of the new faces in the dugout already. Last night Tyler Austin made his Twins debut with a true outcomes triple play - a walk, two strikeouts and a two-run dinger. Today Kohl Stewart, the Twins 2013 fourth round draft pick, will make his first major league appearance. He'll face off against Matt Boyd, who sports a 6-10 record and a 4.33 ERA. There are still a lot of games left on the schedule, but at this point watching the Twins play is sort of like watching the sausage get made. Play ball!
August 12, 2018: Fresh Pot
No, Dude, not that kind of pot.
2018 Game 110: Royals vs. Replacements
It was an eventful week in Twins Territory. It started with the approach of the non-waiver trade deadline and the departures of Eddie Escobar, Brian Dozier, Zach Duke, Ryan Pressley and Lance Lynn. In return the Twins got Logan Forsythe and a gaggle of farm hands, including a couple of power arms, that may or may not be the future of the team. TINSTAAPP. In addition by subtraction, Taylor (Whatsa) Motter was shunted off to Rochester because he plays baseball like Taylor Motter. To fill the holes left by trades, the front office recalled Miguel Sano, Addison Reed, Gabriel Moya and Trevor May. Somehow amidst all the movement and excitement, Matt Belisle and his 8.15 ERA/-6 RAR managed to elude the grim reaper and remains on the 25 man roster, a monument to the staying power of confirmation bias and mediocrity, I suppose. Over the course of the week the Twins won three games and lost three games and dropped another game behind the division-leading Clevelanders. So while we can safely settle our hopes and dreams of a postseason berth in for another long winter's nap, there are still two months of Twins baseball to watch before we turn our attention to football or basketball or hockey or curling or bowling or the occasional acid flashback for diversion. The week was finished off yesterday with the induction of Johan Santana into the Twins Hall of Fame. He will forever be the player by which Rule 5 draft picks are measured, and we tip our hats and raise our glasses to El Presidente.
Our present day pitching Santana toes the rubber for his third start of the season today as the Twins look to complete a sweep of the even more hapless Royals. Kansas City counters with Danny Duffy, so it's probably best to keep the brooms in the closet in the event of an assbat outbreak, at least until we we get into the Royals' bullpen. Play ball!
2018 Game 104: Twins at Red Sox (GOSO Edition)
Congratulations to Gentleman Jim Thome, Jack Morris and the rest of the 2018 Hall of Fame class on their induction. Berrios on the mound today and the Twins need a win to split their 4-game series with the best team in baseball at the moment. That's all I got. Not sure how much enthusiasm I'll be able to muster for this team over the next two months. I guess that depends on how much more demolition the front office conducts before Wednesday. Play ball!
2018 Game 97: (Please Don’t Call Them) Twinkies vs. Royals
Now that the majority of the 2018 season is in the rear view mirror and we're nearing the 100 game mark, I thought I’d take a look to see how the key players added by the Falvine Brain Trust have fared to date. My gut told me that I was in for some disappointing revelations, and my gut is as honest as summer days are long. The front office put most of its focus over the winter on improving the pitching staff and more or less standing pat on position players. It was a solid strategy considering the Twins’ performance in 2017. But the results are far from what we’d hoped.
Starting with the starters, Jake Odorizzi has hurled his way to his highest ERA (4.54) and WHIP (1.446) since a 2012 cup of coffee when he started but two games and threw just seven and a third innings. In other words, when you cut out that small sample size appendage, he’s been having the worst season of his career. Not by large margins, but enough to make him a disappointment so far for fans looking for a much steadier rotation. Considering the Twins gave him a $2.2 million dollar raise over his salary last year with the Rays, it’s fair to say we’ve realized negative value from Jake so far.
Lance Lynn is the other off-season acquisition who has delivered below par value as a starter. With a 5.22 ERA and a 1.653 WHIP, he’s also having the worst season of his career. But to my mind, the more telling stat is his meager 1.65 K/BB rate, which again, is the worst of his career. His K9 rate is actually a bit higher than his career average, but he’s basically walking 2 more batters every 9 innings over his career rate.
In looking to shore up the bullpen, the front office prioritized getting a proven closer in Fernando Rodney. And according to the numbers, our newly naturalized citizen has probably performed closer to expectations than any of Falvine’s off-season pickups. His ERA of 3.12 and WHIP of 1.240 are 58 points and 10 points respectively below his career averages. He’s saved 21 games while blowing 5. That’s a ratio of 4.2 saves for every blown attempt, so not quite up to par with his career ratio of 4.5. In Rodney, at least, the Twins seem to have got the performance they bargained for, albeit with a $4.25 million price tag.
Addison Reed is another pitching get that’s gone mostly sour this season. He’s currently on the DL, but sporting a year to date 4.83 ERA and 1.439 WHIP out of the bullpen filling the role of Rodney’s setup man. How does that compare to his career averages? Not so good – 50 points higher on the ERA, and 25 points higher on the WHIP. With those results it must be hard for the front office to swallow the $8.25 million salary they gave him this year. It’s hard for me and it’s not even my money.
Zack Duke was supposed be another solid bullpen upgrade and for the most part he’s lived up to the billing, posting a 3.38 ERA (128 ERA+) that’s better than his career number by 90 points, though his 1.587 WHIP is higher than you’d like to see in a reliever. But that slightly inflated WHIP this year is more or less counteracted by Duke’s quite low 2.72 FIP, one of the best of his career and 66 points lower than his ERA.
With the new pitchers accounted for, we can turn our attention to Falvine’s main position player pickup, Logan Morrison. I like Morrison. He seems like a solid competitor and a good team player. But unfortunately, he’s been a pretty big bust as a hitter for the Twins. Brought in to spell Joe Mauer at first base with a power-up and anchor the DH role, Morrison’s slash line of .193/.287/.367/.654 is clear and away the very worst of his 8 years in the show. I have no idea what’s behind his struggles, but he’s certainly not earning his $5.5 million. As a fan I’m going to have a real hard time seeing the sense of it if the front office exercises their $8 million 2019 option instead of their $1 million buyout.
Coming out of the break, the Twins have dropped their first 2 games against a dismal Royals team that’s almost certain to lose more than 100 contests, while the Indians won their first two against the Rangers. That puts the Twins 9.5 games behind and takes a lot of wind out of the sails that were billowing nicely from that winning streak before the mid-season classic. Their return to the doldrums also makes them definite sellers with just 9 days before the non-waiver trade deadline, assuming they can find buyers for whomever they try to deal. The Twins send Odorizzi to the mound today, the Royals counter with Brad Keller who has pitched a lot better than his 2-4 record. Play ball!
2018 Game 94: Rays at Twins
Sometimes when I intend to make an omelet in the morning, things go awry. I have all the right ingredients, everything is chopped and mixed and whipped just as it should be. But somehow, when it comes time to do the actual cooking, I just end up with a scrambled egg mess. It's still edible, of course, but the presentation sure leaves something to be desired. That's pretty much how I feel about this Twins season. Back in April we all thought the team had the roster ingredients to be a contender. But that's life. You don't know how many bad eggs you really have until you start cracking them open. Mrs. Twayn and I decided last night that the weather will be too nice today to spend it watching a game on TV, and since the All-Star break is bound to stall out the momentum the Twins have managed to mount on this home stand I snagged a couple of upper deck skyline view tickets on the third base line for seven bucks each and we're going to the game.
With Slegers heading to the disabled list, the Twins recalled Fernando Romero to make today's start. In ten starts this year he's managed a 3-3 record with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. Not bad for a rookie. Ryne Stanek takes the ball for the Rays. He's started ten games this year and made 16 relief appearances. He's 1-2 in games started with an overall 1.93 ERA and a remarkable 0.95 WHIP. This is the last meaningful baseball game for almost a week ("This time it doesn't count™"), so hopefully we can go into the break on a high note. Play ball!
2018 Game 87: Orioles at Twins
The Twins have a chance to pull off a rare 4-game sweep today (the last one I could find was August 2017 in Milwaukee). Yes, it's against the more-hapless-than-our-team Baltimore Orioles, but they don't judge by degree of difficulty in baseball, just runs scored. Jake Odorizzi is on the mound for the Twins, the Orioles feature Alex Cobb. If the Twins can cut their deficit in the division to single digits before the All-Star break, they might be able to make at least a little run to keep things interesting through the dog days. They get another series with KC after the break, then it's Blue Jays and Red Sox before going head-to-head with Cleveland. Hey, it's baseball. Weird stuff happens all the time.
Play ball!