Weather: 53 degrees and overcast
Wind: 10 mph, right to left
Time: 3:21
Attendance: 38,976
The boys from last year, so freewheelin',
are back on their heels now and reelin'
from a punch to the nose
and a heel to their toes
and a knee to the groin they're still feelin'.
It's not what we thought we were getting
and I'm glad that I'm not fond of betting;
I'd be down on my luck
and I'd lose my last buck
on a wager I'm best off forgetting.
Intemperate spring soon turns to summer,
but this season has been such a bummer
that I don't think I'll mind
when we leave it behind.
Reading Souhan always makes me feel dummer.
The Twins tilt tonight was no fans delight,
carnage in the bullpen's a terrible sight.
But no crying, no sorrow,
there's another game tomorrow
and maybe we'll have something go right.
Jim Hoey:
Fastball pitch velocity (per Fangraphs): 95.1
Fastball vertical movement: 10.9
Fastball horizontal movement: -0.5
I got a live look in just in time to see Hunter's double last night. Just a sorry excuse for a fastball, dead center and waist high. Jim Hoey has overtaken _elm_n (barely) as my least favorite Twin on this roster. (Dusty Hughes being third.)
Jim Hoey is a DVR rewinder.
The DVD rewinder isn't the FIAL; it's the person who buys one that is.
That game was a blast right up until the terrible trio came in. When Burnett came in, you could feel the stadium deflate. People started talking as if we were going to lose during warmups. Just ridiculous.
Also, my wife got heckled for wearing a Morneau shirt after the game. Come on people, this isn't New York, show some self-respect.
New York City, please.
is that a regular New York argument? It's rarely listed as New York City anywhere, but I can understand the confusion it could cause.
Having been to Buffalo twice now, if it isn't an argument it should be. Now, I haven't been to New York City, but I assume western New York is far less arrogantly douchey.
My apologies, I figured that was implied.
Hoey's BABIP this season is .421 and nearly 14 percent of his fly balls have been home runs, which is about double the MLB average. There's no doubt Hoey has been terrible, but he's been extremely unlucky as well. At least he's not walking a ton of people, which is what has been his problem in the past. I think Burnett did just as much if not more damage in this one by not covering first base and then walking a batter with a five-run lead. He now has 10 walks and seven strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings. That is beyond bad.
On one hand, maybe he's been unlucky. On the other hand, if I were to stand out on the mound and pitch to major league hitting, I'm pretty sure I'd give up a high percentage of home runs on fly balls, and I'm guessing my BABIP would be astronomical. I have to think there's no set "players above this point are unlucky" line. The way Hoey has been pitching (BP fastballs, hitters counts constantly, etc) that his peripheral stats would be garbage, right alongside his traditional stats. Maybe he's just really, really bad.
BP fastballs aren't thrown at 95. The Twins have allowed 5.27 runs per game, worst in the AL, and their BABIP is .296, which is the highest but not all that much higher than the AL average of .285. The White Sox have allowed only 4.13 runs/game, but their BABIP is .295. Glen Perkins' BABIP is .327. Matt Capps' is .232. Which one has pitched better this year? Baker's is .299, Pavano's is .295. This is why people look at Ks, BBs and HRs allowed and their rate. Of the pitchers that qualify for the leaderboard, the worst BABIP is .351 by Edwin Jackson. Hoey's .421 is way, way up there, too far to be just "bad pitching."
Indeed, a .421 BABIP is higher than anyone should see over a long period of time. Hoey's ERA likely shouldn't be around 10.61. As P said below, his DIPS stats suggest it should be more around 5.34 (xFIP) to 6.13 (tERA) to 7.08 (FIP - affected by the greater home run rate, of course, but if his fastballs are as straight as everyone says...) which would be certainly much closer to what one would want out of a setup reliever.
Probably so, and I did check his xFIP before I made my argument, and I understand the basis of K, BB, and HR, but they don't tell the entire story here, and I stand by my argument. If you put a minor league pitcher against major league hitters, you can't really go off of a major league baseline for his stats. Sure, he's not going to give up home runs on 15% of his fly balls all season, but with how straight his fastball is, and how far behind in the count he falls before serving up a BP fastball, I'm not expecting his to "progress to the mean" so much as I'm expecting him to succumb to Van Poppel syndrome and keep giving the batters juicy fastballs on hitters counts all season long.
He might not be a 10.61 pitcher, but with a standard FIP of above 7, there's not a lot of hope for him to become anything other than a gascan.
I should clarify that when I said "which would be certainly much closer to what one would want out of a setup reliever" I was being entirely sarcastic. A 7.08 FIP is sincerely nowhere close to what I'd want out of a setup reliever.
He's not bad enough to keep his ERA above ten, but he's a flyball pitcher with a crappy K/BB ratio and a really straight fastball. His FIP is above 7, his xFIP at 5.34, and he's a reliever. Not much to be encouraged about.
I would assume that someone with as straight a fastball as P says would have a BABIP that would be less likely to progress all the way to the mean. Just like some pitchers (I don't remember which style: Yankees relievers with cut fastballs?) should have BABIPs that don't regress all the way to the mean.