2011 Twins Game Logs

2011 Game Logs: Game 122 Minnesota Non-Delmons @ Detroit _elm_ns

124 Comments

Nick Blackburn

@

Justin Verlander

Alright, you guys are going to have to bare with me for a little bit here. I am going to try to crunch some numbers and see if I can find a way for the Twins to make up the 10.5 game deficit currently between them and first place.

While I understand the caveats of a small sample size, it is difficult to argue with cold hard numbers. One such case of ignoring sample sizes has to be the result of the Twins scoring 9 runs in every single game that Delmon Young has never been a member of the Twins this season.  Conversely, the Twins have allowed only 6 runs in each and every game played since they traded Delmon. Considering the Tigers had a team ERA of 4.25 before the Delmon trade, I feel comfortable saying the Delmon has made the Tigers 1.75 runs worse per game.

So, at this point the next natural thing to do was to go through the previous 121 games, see how many games the Twins would have won if they scored 9 runs and allowed 1.75 less runs the scoreboard reflected. I will then take that winning percentage, apply it to the rest of the season and see if it puts the Twins in position to win the Central.

This would put the Twins record at 112-9. Over the course of a full season that translates of a winning percentage of .925. This would give the Twins 37.02 wins over the remaining 40 games. We will round this down to 37 wins (to be realistic), putting the Twins final tally over the last 40 games at 37-3.

Assuming all of this elm'n-less math to be true this will put the Twins at 90 wins for the 2011 campaign. Not too shabby. Now how about the other teams? Seeing as how the Tigers are still yet to win a game while employing Delmon I think it is safe to figure they will continue to lose every game the rest of the season.  With the Twins winning 90 the Tigers will be pretty far behind with only 64 wins.

As for the other teams the Twins have to pass, pfft, it is AMR's White Sox and the lowly Indians. Neither of those teams should prove too much trouble as the Twins cruise to their 7th division title in 10 years.

Man, this is going to be an awesome couple of months.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

124 thoughts on “2011 Game Logs: Game 122 Minnesota Non-Delmons @ Detroit _elm_ns”

  1. I don't know which is funnier: the Twins going 37-3 without Delmon or that this would only get them to 90 wins. It's so funny, it hurts.

  6. So it looks like the drama with my stuff is finally coming to an end. The moving company that I hired here in Charleston is going to send one of their own trucks all the way to Des Moines to pick up my stuff from the incompetent and irresponsible company that is currently in possession of most of my earthly belongings. It won't get here until sometime next week, but at least it's getting here.

    1. That's good to hear. Is there any recourse for getting any of the Citadel's money back from the irresponsible company?

      1. Well, I'm paying for part of the move, so hopefully I can get some of my money back. I'll get some compensation at least, but it's a pittance, so I'm hoping for more. I'll probably threaten them with reporting to the BBB and see what I can get.

        1. I was hoping you could be all like "hey mofos, do you have any idea who's money this is?", and then they'd give you a full refund and then some.

          1. I've thought about that. The compensation that they've offered me is one of the two things:

            Reimbursement for a reasonably priced hotel and 50% of all food receipts.

            OR

            Reimbursement for things required to live in an apartment (air mattress, silverware, folding table/chairs, etc.)

            From my perspective, the first option is basically $100/day for every day that it's late and the second option is basically $100. However, I'm not staying in a hotel, so I feel like I should take the latter, but I'm going to demand the former.

  13. cc to nibbish if he's around: I cracked open that cheptoy Blonde Ale. It's.... interesting. It looks like a blonde ale, at least. I'm gonna need some more time with it to determine its flavor profile, but its definitely hoppy.

      1. No, but that would have been clever. A few weeks ago, nibbish mentioned making a blonde that might have been a little more bitter than the style called for and he listed the hops used. So I tossed them in my beer recipe software to get an idea of the bitterness units and ended up with over 70 IBUs, which is way high. But I hadn't entered in any other information, so the calculations weren't even close to correct. I was then challenged to brew a 70+ IBU blonde ale, which I have done. Dry hopped even.

  14. Let's play Jeopardy!

    Category: Thanatology

    Dick Bremer said, "that's gonna die in front of Delmon Young."

        1. Haha. This could make for another game. Describe how various Twins (or former Twins) managed to kill their own cat.

        1. If the umps didn't pretend that they were always right, they wouldn't piss me off so much when they get it wrong.

      1. Right. Blackburn-Cabrera isn't exactly in our favor. He probably should have just beaned him (everyone should, really), but it stayed in the park, at least.

  20. Pitching to Cabrera with runners on leads to runs. Shocking.

    Two runs should be about all the Tigers need with Verlander on the bump.

  21. Well, this inning is a blast. At least Jackson's baserunning decision saved a third run, I guess.

    Two-run lead for Verlander...urge to mute rising...

    1. The twelve-pitch inning isn't going to get JV out of the game nearly quickly enough for my tastes.

  22. Mirror Pond tonight. There were a ton of options at the grocery store, but I didn't feel like wasting an hour so I went with the sure thing.

    1. I'm enjoying a summit in Texas. That's right, I transported MN beer into the forbidden zone*.

      *yes, I know that you can buy Summit here in Texas, but at 8.99 a sixer I'll pass.

        1. Tried or drank it like beer was going out of style? I really, really, really, enjoyed the 25th. I should have bought a case.

                1. He debuted on April 5, 2004. His birthday is April 19, 1983. That means he was 20 for his debut, right?

    3. Youngest Twins position player? I went with Butch Wynegar, but it took me too long to come to that decision.

      Youngest pitcher was Jim Manning, whomever that is.

        3. Looks good. I'm going to stare at that picture and ignore the rest of the alleged "ball game".

  33. Oh I think that's enough for me tonight. Phil Dumatrait makes me question my enjoyment of baseball.

    1. If elmn had worked a walk, I think my enjoyment of baseball would've been done as well.

      1. How many Delmons would it have taken? I'm expressing everything in the number of Delmons it would cost from now on. For instance, this sixer of Mirror Pond cost $7.99, or seventeen Delmons.

  39. Just got back from a PS3 chat with my daughters. What did I miss in the last hour? I can read your faces like books. Ooh, it's good news, right??

    1. If you want the game to be over before the top of the hour, then yes I have very good news.

      1. Yeah, it was a good thing all around with this game. I mean, this is exactly what I expect from Verlander-Blackburn, but it would be nice to be surprised now and again.

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