Minor Thoughts

This is just kind of a wrap-up post of various thoughts on the Twins minor league teams and players.  I claim no particular credentials as either an analyst or a scout, so feel free to disagree with anything that follows.

--You can understand why Rochester management is getting upset with the Twins.  I know the minors are about player development, but you'd still like to be able to field a competitive team.  Given how bad they've been the last two years, attendance hasn't suffered as much as you might think--the Red Wings were ninth out of fourteen teams, with an average of 6493 fans.  All the injuries to the major league club obviously played a part in how bad the team was, but a failure to develop players has also played a part.

--There's not a lot to tell you about the Red Wings players.  Pretty much everybody who's any good, and some guys who aren't any good, have already been in Minnesota.  One who has not is Aaron Bates.  He's a first baseman, 27 years old, has been in AAA since 2009, signed with the Twins in May.  This was the first good AAA season he's had, as he hit .316/.408/.439.  I'm a little disappointed he never got a shot in the majors.  He's not going to be a star--he might not do anything--but the Twins had a need for a first baseman, and I don't see what it would've hurt to give him a chance.  He's not on the 40-man roster, but surely there's enough dreck on the 40-man roster that a space could've been cleared.

--Looking at the AAA stats of some of the guys the Twins brought to the majors this year shows either how desperate the Twins were or how bad their AAA players are.  Tosoni:  .226/.283/.343;  Hughes .231/.287/.402;  Diamond, 4-14, 5.56, 1.58 WHIP.

--Kyle Gibson had gotten off to a good start before struggling later in the season, leading one to think he was pitching hurt for some time before he went on the disabled list.  Young players are in a tough spot.  If they're hurt and don't say anything, management gets down on them for not playing well and then gets mad at them for hiding injuries.  On the other hand, if they do say something, they get called soft.  Since most young athletes would rather be thought of as liars than wimps, they tend to go with the former approach.  We talk about the Twins in this regard, but I don't know that it's something unique to the Twins; I think it's more the culture of sports generally.

--Anthony Slama pretty much had a lost year at a time when he really couldn't afford to have a lost year.  He pitched well when he was healthy, but he battled injuries most of the season.  I still think he could help somebody, but he'll be 28 next season, and the Twins obviously are not very high on him.  If they don't want him, I hope they'll let him go to someone who'll give him a chance.

--Kyle Waldrop got off to a terrible start, but straightened himself out and pitched pretty well in the second half of the season.  Given the Twins need for bullpen help, he should have a good shot at making the team next year.  He'll be 26 next season, so it's about time to see if he can help or not.

--New Britain at least gave us something to cheer for as they tried to make the playoffs, but they were basically a .500 team (72-70).  That's a substantial improvement over last year, but still nothing to get excited about.  They did have some good players, though, especially on offense.

--We've discussed whether the Twins had let Joe Benson get "stuck" in AA.  The Twins seem to have a policy that they won't move their best prospects during the season.  As a general rule, I don't have a problem with that; I'd just make more exceptions than they do.  Once a player has established he can handle one level, it's time to move him up to the next level.  If you don't, he can get frustrated, develop bad habits, and start trying too hard in an attempt to get noticed.  Just when a player has "established" that he can handle a level is a tricky business, but surely Benson had by mid-season.  I see no purpose served by leaving him in AA all year.

--Brian Dozier was the exception to the rule discussed above, as he was promoted from Ft. Myers to New Britain in mid-season.  On the other hand, he's 24 and was hitting .322 with a .423 OBP at Ft. Myers, so promoting him was pretty much a no-brainer.  He continued to put up good numbers at New Britain, and the Twins need middle infielders.  It'll be interesting to see if he's given a chance to make the big club next spring.

--Yangervis Solarte, on the other hand, is another player who was required to spend a full year in New Britain despite his numbers.  He'd already played 35 games there before this season, but was left there all year despite hitting .329/.367./.466.  I'm not saying he could've done the same in Rochester, but I am saying he should've been given a chance to see what he could do there.

--A year ago, it appeared that Chris Parmelee had changed his approach to raise his average and cut down on his strikeouts.  It worked, but he also cut down on his power.  This year, the average stayed up and the power returned to some extent, but so did the strikeouts--94 on the year.  As a first baseman, he's going to need to hit with some power to be productive.  If it was up to me, we wouldn't worry so much about the strikeouts.

--Little Chris Cates made a good story, but unfortunately he's not a good ballplayer.  .205/.258/.245 just ain't going to cut it.  He's 26, so he's probably not going to get much better.  It's too bad, but it's the way it is.

--I don't have a lot to say about the Rock Cats' pitching, but it should be pointed out that Deolis Guerra really turned it on the last couple of months.  On June 30, he was 5-6, 7.55, 1.68 WHIP.  After that, he went 3-1, 2.77, 1.08.  He's only 22, so there's reason to hope this improvement is real, and that he'll continue to improve next season.

--Oswaldo Arcia was my Ft. Myers position player of the year, but it was mostly based on a lack of competition; he really wasn't anything special there, although he did play quite well in Beloit for the first month.  What concerns me most is his walks, or rather his lack of them.  His highest walk total in a season so far is 19.  Given that he's spent his entire career so far in the low minors, where there are lots of pitchers with control problems, that's not good.  For comparison, Kirby Puckett averaged about 35 walks per minor league season and Vlad Guerrero around 45.  He's only 20, so he has time to improve, but if he's going to make it, he's going to have to stop swinging at everything.

--Aaron Hicks did not exactly take a step forward this year, hitting .242/.354/.368.  The walks are good, but the rest is not.  He repeated Beloit; he may need to repeat Ft. Myers, too.  He'll turn 22 next month, so there's still time, but not as much as there used to be.

--I think we can about close the book on Shooter Hunt.  His second year at Ft. Myers was no better than his first, and he's 25 now.  Let him go and see if another organization wants to try to straighten him out, because it's not happening here.

--Alex Wimmers, on the other hand, did straighten out.  The no-hitter was a nice punctuation mark for his season, but it was clear he was pitching well before that.  If you throw out his awful first outing, he went 2-2, 2.88, 1.08 WHIP in 40.2 innings.  He'll be 23 next year; I can see why you might want to start him at Ft. Myers, but I hope he won't be there long.

--Jairo Perez is another player who could have been moved up mid-season, but wasn't.  He missed all of 2010 and part of this season, so it's understandable, but still, .337/.413/.580 shows that he was too good for the Midwest League.  Seventeen errors in 49 games may show that his future is somewhere other than third base, though.

--B. J. Hermsen continues to make progress, having a fine year in Beloit.  He did not do as well in five starts at Ft. Myers, but he'll be 22 next season.  One assumes he'll start with the Miracle next season.

--Eddie Rosario had a monster season, slugging over a thousand.  Again, another player who could have been moved up, as he was clearly too good for the league he was in.  I get that he was 19 this season, but still, if you're ready to move up, you're ready to move up, no matter what your birth certificate says.

--It's more understandable that Miguel Sano was not moved up.  He played well all year, but really stepped it up in August, turning a good season into an excellent one.

--Max Kepler was a little disappointing, maybe, but not so much when you consider that he's 18.  He wasn't bad by any means, just not as good as one might have hoped.

One more thing.  You may have noticed that my reports got somewhat sloppy toward the end of the season.  I'm not happy about that.  I could make excuses for it, but that's what they'd be, so I won't.  I'll simply apologize, thank those who picked up my errors, take a few weeks off (other than birthday posts and transactions reports) and come back when the Arizona Fall League season starts October 4, ready to battle my tail off and fire some more reports throught the internet.

25 thoughts on “Minor Thoughts”

    1. Dido. Everyday Jeffy. It's obvious that you have the fire in the belly and are always ready to get after it.

    2. [Dido]
      You really did battle your tail off out there; got after it and gave us a chance 😉

      But seriously, I've enjoyed the updates a ton and especially this final round-up. Keep up the excellent work Padre!

  1. All your work is much appreciated, padre. The minor league updates gave me some reasons to still be excited about baseball over this very long, very rough season.

  2. If they don't want [Slama], I hope they'll let him go to someone who'll give him a chance.

    I appreciate your desire to see players get the chance to make the majors even if it's with another club. Not enough fans can see through their own selfish desires for their team to wish well prospects that don't meet their lofty expectations.

  3. I grow to enjoy this feature more all the time, Jeff, though my lack of comments wouldn't show it (I'm all about the intangibles). Keeping up with the minor league system is a daunting task, but you put it in such easily digestible pieces, I feel like I really have a handle on the team of the future.

    1. I feel like I really have a handle on the team of the future.

      and does that make you feel better or worse?

      seriously though, jA: great work as always. count me in the camp of first time rare poster, long time reader.

      1. Heh. There are dark immediate times ahead without some savvy free agent moves (let's all hold our breaths as we see whether BS can pull that off), but Rosario and Sano bring much hope.

          1. God help us if we trade Mauer for an entire terrible team (but if your syllogism is suggesting we trade Mauer for an entire Boston team, we can talk).

                  1. What I meant was, in case it wasn't obvious, that what could have been a much longer run of good to great teams was cut short by Hrbek's deteriorating body and Puckett's sudden departure. Not a perfect analogy, but I'm fearful that an early end to the M&M boys' productive years could signal the start of a long cold winter in Twins history.

                    1. The big difference here is that the Twins of the 90s didn't have Target Field and I think the strike hurt them as well. They didn't have much luck with prospects either. The Twins may need a few years to turn this around, but I doubt it will take anything close to a decade. They may not spend on big-name free agents, but they have shown willingness to spend on international free agents and go above slot on draft picks, which never happened before Target Field was being built.

                    2. While the stadium might help a little, if the product on the field sucks, the revenue will tank. Minneapolis ain't NYC.

                      The Twins have had an impressive run of quality teams since the last Dark Age closed in 2000. They have done it with balance.

                      Their AL ranks in runs scored and runs allowed, respectively, counting backwards from this season:
                      13, 13
                      5, 3
                      4, 10
                      3, 8
                      12, 4
                      8, 2
                      14, 5
                      10, 1
                      6, 6
                      9, 6
                      8, 7

                    3. turning things around is one thing, but the Twins also have to hope that the rest of the AL Central doesn't finally figure things out. The 90's had a strong Indians team, while the 2000's Twins had things (mostly) to themselves.

                    4. During the Twins' dominance against a so-called weak division, the White Sox won the World Series, the Tigers won the AL and the Indians should have won the AL after blowing a 3-1 lead in the ALCS to the Red Sox.

  4. Jeff,
    I hope you didn't take my comments the wrong way. I had followed a few games on Gameday, and noticed that things in your reports weren't how I remembered them. There's no great place to get all this data (well, except from you), up-to-date, concise, with player names highlighted to allow for easy scanning, etc. It's a really great service you put together.

    Had you not put this daily report together, I would not have been watching on Gameday, because I wouldn't have known who any of the players were.

    It was an interesting season to follow, with Rosario and Solarte and Sano, and with some gallows humor about the inability of Rochester to win.

    surely there's enough dreck on the 40-man roster that a space could've been cleared
    Hey, that's my CJ you're talking about (apparently). I guess I'm surprised no one claimed him on waivers, if nothing else to get a heads-up on signing him for 2012. It's now pretty clear that the Twins weren't going to keep CJ on the roster after the season, but I think they could have had a better shot of re-signing him had they not treated him like they should have treated other players.

    1. I didn't take your comments the wrong way at all. I appreciated the corrections. I'm just upset with myself. I know these are just little reports about minor league games on a blog, but I still try to make them as good as I can in the time I have. It bothers me when I make mistakes, but I'm glad when the mistakes are corrected.

      I wasn't really talking about James; I didn't address him above because I figured everyone here knew anything I could say about him. I agree that he could certainly have been given a shot above people like Hoey. I was thinking more of the Tolberts on the roster who don't contribute anything and never will contribute anything.

      Bates and James are actually similar in that they were signed to help the AAA team and were never going to get a chance to do more than that. The Twins decided that they were AAA players, not major league players. It always bothers me when an organization just decides that a player can't make it and won't give him a chance to prove them wrong.

      If you're looking for reasons why a player won't succeed, you can always find them. Everyone has something to work on. Harmon Killebrew struck out a lot. Kirby Puckett swung at a lot of bad pitches. Joe Mauer hits into a lot of double plays. You can always find a reason to keep someone down if that's what you've decided to do.

      Scouting just isn't that exact of a science, which is why I believe in keeping it simple. When a guy succeeds at one level, you promote him to the next level and see what he can do. When you give people a chance, sometimes they surprise you.

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