103 thoughts on “December 13, 2011: Mom”

    1. I'm almost there, and I believe I'm in the 2014 season. If I win it all, I will 100% believe that 2014 is destined for the Wolves. Of course, if I could put down Skyrim, I could get back to the road to winning.

      1. Rubio is trying to get a max contract. This Wolves team is going to be paying the luxury tax, for sure.

        1. Is the 2K11 or 2K12? I have no concerns about Rubio because he does not exist in my world. If you're playing 2K11, I'm assuming you meticulously created him, which makes sense to me.

          1. I am onto the 2k12. After I figured there wasn't going to be a NBA season I bought the game so I could have a season. Turns out, as usual, I was wrong.

            1. Have the rookies been added in a roster update yet? Now that there is a season, I'm considering picking up 2k12 on the cheap if I can.

  1. At the end of Pos' recent post about Pujols there was this bit, which I thought underlined well the point ubes was making about Cuddyer yesterday:

    I have, on occasion, been allowed past the moat and drawbridge and into Albert Pujols’ world. In those circumstances, I have found him to be a likable guy — determined, focused, self-effacing, respectful of the past, loyal to his friends, energized by faith and some of the good things that his fame and money have allowed him to do. I have also, on occasion, been frozen out like just about everybody else. In those circumstances I have found him to be difficult, cold, defensive, overly sensitive, angry, surprisingly eager to believe the worst about people.

    It’s tempting to say that one or the other is the “real” Albert Pujols, but I don’t think it’s ever that easy. He isn’t one or the other or even both. He’s a lot of things.

  2. I've noticed a few new flower based banners. Are these in memoriam of Hoey and Neck Fat?

    1. I'm looking forward to the next crop of crappy relievers so that I can make more banners about them.

      Other thoughts:
      1. Did another team claim Mijares, or was he just cut? I don't think banners should be retired until the player is on another team, because he could always re-sign.
      2. The "World's Greatest" Chuck James banner I made cropped out CJ's head to showcase the jersey (and a lefty pitcher if you like). I'm in favor of not retiring it, even if CJ ends up somewhere else.

      1. Mijares was non-tendered. I'm not sure if there's a claim process for being non-tendered, I think you just become a free agent, at least that's the way I've read the Mijares release blurbs. There is a chance he could re-sign, but it seems unlikely in his case.

        Not sure where I stand on banner retirement, though.

  3. Apparently, the Rockies are looking at Beltran as well as Cuddyer, but will only sign one. Beltran is a year older than Cuddyer, but hit .300/.385/.522 last year in two pitchers' ballparks. I have to believe he also is a better RF than Cuddyer. Is he not wanting significantly more money? If not, then why aren't the Twins also showing interest? He's a switch hitter, but he's stronger from the right side. Would it be injury concerns?

    1. It sounds like they think it would take fewer years to sign Beltran. I think all things being equal I'd prefer the Twins sign Beltran to Cuddyer or Willingham, too. But I don't know what the money would be like, even on a shorter term.

    2. I really wonder if the Twins are looking at Cuddyer more as a 1B who can play OF than an OF who can play 1B. I have my doubts about Morneau at 1B next year, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins have those doubts, too. I think they are looking at Willingham more as Willingham vs. Kubel, because I don't think they're that worried about handedness and if anything could use to have an extra right-handed hitter around to break up some of the lefties. So if they were looking at Beltran, it would probably be Beltran vs. Willingham vs. Kubel, and sure, Beltran is the best player out of that group (by far?), but there's only so much they're going to spend on a corner OF.

      Are the Twins comfortable with Parmelee at first base next year if Cuddyer walks and Morneau can't go in the field? Doumit's experience at 1B is really limited and the Twins have said he's going to be a 1B.

      Anyway, I have to imagine that Beltran gets a lot more than Cuddyer in the end, right? Last year was Cuddyer's career year (by fWAR) and relatively speaking, Beltran obliterated him 4.7 fWAR to 3.1 fWAR. His very best seasons are back a few years now, but I think it's worth considering that Beltran has 9 seasons better than Cuddyer's best season (again, by fWAR.)

        1. Do the Twins have the budget for him? He projects to about 3 fWAR next year. Cuddyer projects to about 2.25 fWAR next year. Beltran would certainly seem to have "name" value over Cuddyer, and even though I'd bet the gap between them is more like 3.25 to 2 than 3 to 2.25, how much of a premium would you pay for Beltran given all the holes the Twins have to address?

          1. Beltran is a Boras client, so who knows what Scott is looking for. If the Rockies are thinking he's going to be signable on a shorter term, they might be looking for a "make right" type deal? I guess I'd offer 1/$11 milion or 2/$20. I wouldn't go a ton higher than Cuddyer's AAV, but the shorter term would be nice.

            1. I guess I'm still of the mind in thinking not in terms of Beltran and Cuddyer, but Beltran and Willingham. If Willingham can be had on a 3-year deal for a good value to the Twins, I think I might rather have that deal, since I think a good season for the Twins this year will be getting to .500 and on a 3-year deal, Willingham could be around to help the Twins in the playoffs in 2-3 years. Also, if Beltran signs a short-term deal, he's all but certain to have a clause in the contract which prevents that team from getting a comp pick when he leaves.

              So while I wouldn't mind seeing Beltran in a Twins uniform, I don't know that he fits the big picture that well. For it to be a good deal in the big picture, I think the Twins would have to risk signing him to a 3-year deal, but Boras probably wouldn't accept more years at a lower AAV as an alternative to a 1-year deal.

                    1. *looks around for the other shoe*

                      *Where is the other shoe? It always seems to show up eventually...*

                  1. I'm not too up on the Indians' roster situation right now, but I'd have to say that even as a question mark in a corner spot, Willingham has the potential to be a defensive upgrade over Young, Kubel, and probably Cuddyer. I love me some defense, but if we can put good defensive outfielders in the other two OF spots, we can relieve some of Willingham's defensive responsibility that way. With a decent bench we can consider subbing him out in close games with the lead.

                    I know Willingham's a bit on the older side right now, but I'm finding it hard to believe no one else out there is willing to out-bid us on him. In a way, his .364 career wOBA seems almost hard to believe. If you look at players with at least 500 PA with the Twins over the last 10 seasons, Willingham's career .364 wOBA would rank 3rd (3rd!), behind just Mauer and Thome, but edging out Morneau. You have to go back to Mack/Davis/Puckett in the early '90s as the last time the Twins had a right-handed hitter this good.

                    So it's hard for me to wrap my head around this. Maybe he's had some injury troubles, but he's had 2+ fWAR every year since '06, and he's averaged nearly 130 games/season, so he wouldn't seem to be in RonDL territory. And even with his injuries, his hitting numbers have been consistently good. It's really tempting to think good things about Mauer-Willingham-Morneau.

                    1. I think his problem has been being on teams with bad hitting ballparks and bad offenses. I doubt he'll bat between the M's against righties, but Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, Doumit will be a good way to go. If the Indians were the Twins' only real competitors for him, it will be interesting to see how much they had to pay. Assuming this means no Cuddyer, that means the Twins also get two picks from him signing with someone else.

                    2. OPS against RHP:

                      .942 -- Mauer
                      .827 -- Willingham
                      .904 -- Morneau

                      OPS against LHP:

                      .749 -- Mauer
                      .862 -- Willingham
                      .752 -- Morneau

                      I think it'd make all the sense in the world to hit Willingham between Mauer and Morneau, even against RHP. If a RHP wants to walk Mauer to get to Willingham, go right ahead. Mauer's a good baserunner and it's hard to be a 1.000 OBP. Willingham is a patient hitter and any RHP with poor control has a good chance to face Morneau with runners on first and second if they decide to walk Mauer to get to Willingham. Plus, Willingham has plenty of power so if the pitcher makes a mistake, that could be a crooked number in a hurry.

                      If Willingham had a bigger platoon split, maybe I'd worry about it, but like most right-handed hitters, he's got a pretty small platoon split.

                      Against LHP, maybe you'd worry that sandwiching Willingham between two .750 OPS hitters would be an issue, but it'd be nice to finally make a LHP worry about the guy he's facing after Mauer.

                    3. Now I'm getting excited about the Twins getting Willingham. That's a nice looking middle of the order. Now, if they can just get the Twins training staff upgraded as well...

                    4. I wasn't really stating where Willy should bat, but where Gardy will probably put him. But, maybe he'll want to take pressure off Morneau coming off the injuries. So, who knows.

                    5. Gardy likes to alternate handedness when practical and he also likes to keep the lineup consistent from game to game. I think he'll welcome a good right-handed hitter to stick between Mauer and Morneau. The only catch is if he doesn't think 'ham makes enough contact.

                      I didn't look back before '07, but in '07, Gardy regularly put Cuddyer or Hunter between Mauer and Morneau. To start '08, Cuddyer was hitting between them, but he went on the DL early on. The world didn't explode with Mauer and Morneau hitting back-to-back, and Cuddyer had a pretty poor year that year, so he never earned his way between the two again. With Cuddyer struggling and Hunter gone, Gardy was out of right-handed hitters to stick between them.

                      It's possible he's just established enough of a comfort level with Mauer-Morneau back-to-back, but if Willingham has a good spring training, I'd like to hope that Gardy is sick of watching LOOGYs come in against Mauer and Morneau with no real consequence.

                    6. And Ubes throws a wrench in the Willingham nickname debate. I'm pretty certain Willy will be Gardy's choice, but what of the WGOM?

                    7. There's also 'hammy, but that might be tempting the fates. 🙂 I'm pretty certain you're right that Gardy will use Willy at times, but I don't like making a last name nickname into a common first name nickname. I'm sure creative adaptations of his name will come up during the season, depending on how he performs.

                    8. Jobu needs to move on Consensual Pork as soon as the ink is dry on the contract.
                      Glad this isn't an office. "Consensual Pork" might cross a line.

  4. I see dw mentioned yesterday that Mijares is gone. That seems fine. He's got a career 4.13 FIP, which is really not impressive for a reliever, and given how out of shape he is, he always seems like a risk to completely bomb out any given year.

    My hope is that he gets replaced by someone who Gardy will let face both LHB and RHB. The fewer LOOGYs and ROOGYs in the bullpen, the better.

    1. agree wholeheartedly. Those kind of relievers are less flexible and leave less room for bench players.

      1. Normally I agree wholeheartedly, but would more spots for Butters, Tolbot, Iceman, and Rectal really have given the team a competitive advantage last season?

        1. Had they had a stronger bullpen and been planning on going with an 11-man pitching staff all season, they might have done something different with the bench. At any rate, the Twins ought to be focused on building a team for next year and not getting too lost in the details of what went wrong last year. Mijares wasn't helping. Now there's room for someone else.

        2. The Twins said they passed on Thome because the bench was so short so they needed more versatility, so if they had a better bullpen and starting staff so they felt they could go with 11, then they might have brought back Thome. Of course, who knows if they would have signed Doumit as well.

  5. “I will fight for this until my death. I don’t accept it. I can’t sleep anymore and I constantly think about the injustice I’ve experienced.”

    Yea, me neither.

    1. Admittedly, I know almost nothing about slots, but a four-slot match was only worth $100 with a five-slot match worth tens of millions? I guess I'm just surprised by how much they low-balled the guy. Maybe it was a glitch, but casinos are awfully profitable and it seems like it would have been easier to just offer the guy $500K or something to make him go away rather than going through court and all that. The quote is over the top, but I find the situation intriguing.

      1. I could be reading it wrong, but I think the four-slot match was worth a big fat zero and the $100 was to try to make him go away.

        1. That could well be, it seems each slot machine has different rules. I just think of casinos as such profitable enterprises that they could probably afford more than $100 to make the guy go away. Surely even $1,000 is a drop in the bucket for most casinos, right?

          1. As far as I know. My sister-in-law is dating a guy who is part of the tribe that operates the casinos in this area. Mayhaps I'll ask him if that is the case.

            If the four-slot match is zero, that would make the $100 and a dinner offer even more dickish, you ask me.

            1. Unless that's a seriously nice dining experience, the dinner is what makes it seem patronizing. "No big deal, just eat it off, on us!"

      2. The quote sounds a lot like something his lawyer may have suggested so they could use it later to claim mental trauma and sleep deprivation as a result of the casino's decision.

    2. this just brings back the horror I experienced when I received a letter telling me I had $750,000 to claim

  6. Warning! Unfounded speculation: Cuddyer and Mariners talking? Seems like it would be a pretty terrible fit since Smoak is a promising 1B prospect, Ichiro is in RF and Cuddyer would be terrible in Safeco's huge LF. But the Mariners have so few good hitters on their team that it's not terribly surprising this cropped up.

    1. better or worse than Raul Ibanez in LF at Safeco?

      and yes, this is just an excuse to replay that classic clip.

    1. Having never heard of that source before, I'm not sure how seriously to take it, but 3yr/$24M seems reasonable. 5/4/3 projects him to 2.5 fWAR next year, and 2.0, 1.5 fWAR the following years presuming a .5 WAR/year decline. That's 6 fWAR over 3 years, putting the deal exactly at $8M/win. Not great, not terrible, but one upside is that his rate performance is good, which makes him more valuable in the playoffs than a player with similar projected total value who is an iron horse and always stays healthy.

          1. getting closer...

            JoeCStrib JoeChristensen Sources: Willingham's near agreement with Twins is for three years, $21 million. Sides very close to a deal.

      1. How do you figure $8 million/win? With $24 million total and 6 expected wins, I'm counting $4 million/win, which makes it a pretty good deal.

        1. I think the writer of that post was just making a guess based on Cuddyer's reported offer. Christiansen is saying 3/$21 million

        2. Now it sounds like $21M, so $3.5M per win plus the two picks the Twins get from Cuddyer signing elsewhere, a most excellent decision, TR.

          1. and Indians fans on the boards are basically praising Shapiro for not signing him, saying his defense is horrendous and he's a mediocre bat. Okay then

            1. He looks to be a -5 run guy in left field. Considering Cuddyer is at best -5 runs in right field, seems like a cheaper lateral move.

  7. Crazy second period between the Wild and the Jets. No, I never thought I would read that either.

    1. both goaltenders have made some pretty awesome saves. PM Bouchard has been robbed at least twice

      1. 5 minute major with one minute left. I realize it goes into overtime if the Wild tie it, but I think a major with less than 5 minutes left should have a bigger penalty.

      1. I accept that I'm in the minority around here, but someone should have dropped the gloves with Bogosian there, just like Stoner stood up for Zanon earlier.

    1. If you've got 1.3 million to spare cheaptoy and I are looking to open up a brewery/curling club together. You can join us for exactly 1.3 million dollars.

    2. Of course, Shoppach would probably rather play for the Red Sox than the Twins and the Twins would likely have to pay at least $2M to bring Shoppach here.

  8. those both sound like equally appealing prospects. get muirhead or dupont on the board, and that could tip the scales.

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