2012 Twins Game Log

2012 Game Number 1: Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles

424 Comments

Day game alert!

Carl Pavano
vs
Jake Arrieta

I had some stuff written about the offseason, but it seems irrelevant now. It sucks going into a season knowing that finishing at .500 would be a success. I think the front office knows there are problems, but thinks there is no point throwing money at a few extra wins. And I am okay with that.

I recognize that about 28 of the teams actually need to have down years. It is very hard to maintain success over many years; you need everything to go right. However, now we get to play the waiting game. Will this be just a "retooling" or a rebuild?

Here's to everyone returning to form, a great draft, and Ryan swindling trading for undervalued assets. I love baseball, but not never-ending losing.

424 thoughts on “2012 Game Number 1: Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles”

      1. You'll notice I edited that last part out...salt on the wound and what-not. I'll make it up to you with a Surly at TF this summer - promise.

        1. It's cool. I usually don't bother with lineups anyway. Anyone watching the game is going to know the correct lineup very quickly.

          1. But! We must have the lineups early so that we can pick them apart, it is an essential part of the game!

            1. How could Gardy hit his two best lefties back-to-back?!?!?!

              Why does a middle infielder always have to hit second?!?!!

              #LineupRage

              1. Gleeman noted today that if those nine guys were playing, that's how he'd fill out the lineup. So, there's that.

    1. We could (should?) add them here. I like the new ones. I think Capps' will see considerable use.

  3. I'd actually be pretty happy with a .500 season. It probably deserves its own little mini-study, but how often have teams with, say, fewer than 70 wins improved their win total by 18ish wins? So often it seems that bad teams stay very bad. For instance, take Tampa Bay--they had 10 straight years of 70 wins or fewer until they finally got above .500. Baltimore has won 70 or fewer games for six straight years. Kansas City's had one season above .500 since the division realignment and a ton of seasons below 70 wins. The Mariners have had a bunch of crappy years over the last few decades and large improvements have by far been the exception rather than the rule.

    1. Since the last expansion (1998) there have been 43 seasons in the American League following a ≤70 win season.

      5 of those 43 ended up being above .500

      TB from 66 to 97 in 2008
      Sea from 61 to 85 in 2009
      KC from 62 to 83 in 2003
      Min from 69 to 85 in 2001
      Ana from 70 to 82 in 2000 [edited to add this line]

      The average change in record is +5.1 wins, with 31 of 43 seasons having equal or better win totals than the season before.

      1. So, TB, Minnesota, and Anaheim followed their turn-arounds with more winning seasons. Although Anaheim had two more losing seasons before their current string of success. The Royals lost 104 games and Mariners 101 after their turn-around. The Royals did top 70 wins until five years later. The Mariners are still hoping for that.

    2. But ubes, the question is not how often bad teams stay bad, but rather, how often good teams flip to bad and stay bad.

      what is the predictive value of one bad season? Seasons t-2 and t-3 probably have a lot of information beyond season t-1 to inform season t's likely outcomes, for the simple reason that many of the players persist over time. But anomalously bad seasons do happen.

      The Twins have had winning records in 9 of the last 11 seasons. The last time they finished last was 2000, which was followed by a 16-game improvement in the win column. (the flip side is that 2000 was the 4th consecutive 90+ loss season)

      #hopespringseternal

      1. In the same timeframe as the above comment five teams have gone from above 70 to below 70 and then back to above 70 in three consecutive seasons.

        Sea in '07 (above 70), then '08 (61 wins), then '09 (85 wins) followed by 2 sub-70 win seasons.
        Tor in '03 (above 70), then '04 (67 wins), then '05 (80 wins) haven't been below 70 wins since.
        Cle in '02 (above 70), then '03 (68 wins), then '04 (80 wins) haven't been below 70 wins since.
        Ana in '98 (above 70), then '99 (70 wins), then '00 (82 wins) haven't been below 70 wins since.
        KC in '98 (above 70), then '99 (64 wins), then '00 (77 wins) followed that with 8 of the next 11 seasons below 70 wins.

        in the 10 other cases when a team went from above 70 to below 70, the next season resulted in a win total below 70.

      3. Last year wasn't just a bad season, though, it was a really bad season. If we use, say, a 5/4/3 weighting for the last three seasons (why not?) to predict this year, you get 79 wins. So, sure, not as dire as if you just look at last season, but a lot of the things that went wrong last year (injury, lack of depth) make our outlook on many of the players worse than it has been in the past, especially in the case of Span and Morneau, whose injury problems could well become a chronic issue. I tend to think that 74-75 wins is probably the right expectation, which would still make a return to .500 pretty remarkable.

  4. Alright, today may be the last day for full-blown optimism. Two years ago the Twins were in the playoffs. That's not that long ago. They can do it again this year. PLAYOFFS OR BUST.

  5. The Twins' first home run will be hit by Ryan Doumit. The win today will go to Glen Perkins. Casilla will go 3-3 with two stolen bases.

  8. I have put on my (Pete) Rose-colored glasses and am drinking the Kool Aid. Twins, please make this a very Good Friday.

  9. I've got bad news, you guys. The Perrywinkle border is back for mlb.tv this season.

  11. Mauer is going to go 4-5 today with two doubles. He will do a crotch chop in the direction of Souhan after his 4th hit.

            1. Yeah, I shouldn't be picking on him. He's such a nice guy, and humble too.

              I should be picking on Pavano.

    1. Hey HomerDome, good to see you, whaddya think of Chelsea's run in the FA Cup and Champions League.

      ooops, wrong subject. Anyway I love that GOSO is so entrenched into the WGOM lexicon that it showed up twice within 5 minutes of the first pitch.

      2. I think Chelsea's going to have a hard time figuring out what to focus on. They have the best shot for the FA Cup, but I'm guessing they'll go all in on the CL. Apparently Terry is going to play with broken ribs too. That doesn't seem like a good idea.

        To make this Twins focused, I'm pretty sure Mauer could have been one of the best goalies ever to play the game.

        1. So far, so good. Not the most exciting first week, but the long term prospects are looking good.

            1. Significantly less, which will be real nice. Although that means my frequent flyer miles are now stagnant.

  33. Guess I should have drafted Nick Markakis again this year. He's been such a disappointment every other year that I just couldn't bring myself to do it this year.

      1. Well, my non-WGOM league team went 6-43 yesterday (late round flier Colby Rasmus turned in a 0-7 performance), so you can't blame me for second-guessing myself.

        1. I don't know what my fantasy team did, but it had fewer at bats and ended up with a .105 average. At least the other pitchers (see: Strasburg) saved Romero.

    1. Yeah, Kinsler has a double, a donger and two runs. He's in the spirit of the season.

      1. Claudorko just smashed one though. 2-1.

        Make that.....Dunn? I was half-watching it.

        I just assumed it wasn't Dunn.

  38. excitement for new baseball season has been quickly extinguished.

    Well done.

    1. If they give up 2 runs in every remaining inning this season, assuming nine inning games, that's only 2,914 more runs they're going to give up this season.

  40. I don't know about you guys but Parmelee looks like a future good glove first basemen to me.

    /ducks/

    1. At what point is jumping going to be the safer dodge? By now, I think everyone knows to throw low.

    2. I like this idea, the Rawlings Good Glove. With an inscription that reads "Eh, you didn't embarrass yourself out there or anything... I guess"

  42. At some point this Cubs World Series Champs commercial is going to get really stale. That time will come sooner than the Cubs winning the actual World Series.

        1. I like Halliday. It's as if Halladay and Holliday merged into one super pitcher/batter.

      1. I see the general rationale, sort of. Rodriguez isn't too good, but he's better against lefties, and Pena is generally much worse against them than against RHPs. I wouldn't intentionally walk Rodriguez, but I get why he did it.

        1. I guess, but in my (admittedly limited) observation of Girardi, he seems to be a little to quick on the IBB trigger. For instance, I would tend to argue that it is rarely a good idea to IBB early on in the game (the first inning being a prime example) because you're helping to turn over the other team's lineup.

  44. Gameday's scout just informed me that Mark Reynolds is hitting .000 this year on fastballs inside.

    1. Gardy wants you to call him deuce deuce. I have no idea why.

      1. That could be an interesting strategy. Keep adding players that are about to play your team/terrible team in general and then drop them once the series is over.

  52. SCOUT: John Arieta has Twins hitters hitting the ball into the ground so far.

    This thing is the greatest.

    1. He's lost a couple of MPH, I think. This could be a long year for him - which would make 5 or 6 starters that would be true for.

  58. I didn't see any spring training games. That play by Carroll looked pretty nice, but that was kind of a weak throw, wasn't it? Anyone have any insights on his arm?

    3. I just saw the video and I'm thinking that isn't a great example of his arm. It looked like it was weak because he was throwing off his back foot due to throwing and landing at the same time.

  60. Here's my prediction: Twins lose 2-0, in the post-game presser Gardy complains about the walk in the first inning.

  64. A fan running on the field in the top of the 4th on Opening Day?

    I guess they don't plan to go to any other games this year.

  67. Hi folks. Just splurged on the in-flight wifi (after looking earlier to confirm that the game would be available at the site I use to watch the Wolves). After paying, I see the game was removed... Ugh.

    1. i have a feeling that's going to happen a lot. MLB seems to be muuuuch more thorough in removing feeds than any other sport.

      1. It's probably because they were basically the first sport to realize the potential of this whole internet thing.

        I've had MLB.tv since 2003.

        1. oh, no question that they're the most internet savvy of all the sports as well. hence, they have the most control over their product leaking out of the tubes.

          1. I wonder what would be more productive for MLB - offering blackout-free MLB.TV programming, or policing the pirating of their content on unauthorized sites.

            1. But why would you ever choose to watch your favorite team when you live in their area, but don't have cable, when you could watch the Yankees?

            2. The cable and satellite deals are far more lucrative, since they are able to charge a carriage fee plus sell advertising.

              That 3 billion dollar deal over 20 years for the Angels is far more than they would get from selling MLB.tv.

            3. Well, these aren't exactly mutually exclusive activities. They should be doing both. (Or at least finding some middle ground where you can pay extra to see the blacked-out games.)

              1. They charge a lot for those regional sports networks. If the demand isn't there from the people that actually watch the games, I'm sure the cable/sats would drop them pretty quickly.

                At least that is what the RSNs would claim. I don't see blackout-free baseball being a thing anytime in the near future.

                1. I'm sure that's what they would claim, but I doubt they have the numbers to back it up. I'm sure that people watching sports on cable still vastly outstrips watching on the internet.

          2. I think they're one of the least savvy actually. Five second TV clip on YouTube? Taken down very quickly.

          3. I would say early internet adaptation was one of the only good things Selig did, but I would guess someone else in MLB HQ took the lead on this.

            1. Let's put it this way:

              Seligula's office is in the same building on campus as mine. The university had to get a local cable company to run cable drops into his office so he can watch games on three different TVs in his suite because he is apparently unable to log onto the building's wifi network and stream MLB.TV to watch his games.

              1. Heh. For some reason I imagine him watching them off of old '70s style dial tvs.

                1. "I saw the game on television today. It was amazing! There were these little men inside the set, playing a game of base ball right before my eyes!"

    1. We're not even halfway through the 4th inning of the first game, so I'm gonna say 324 times as many times as they already have?

  72. I don't want to freak anyone out, but the Twins were pretty close to scoring a run there.

    1. If DG's theory is correct (and when have his theories ever been wrong?), the next time through the lineup will be all home runs.

  74. Awesome. My mlb.com account was not renewed, despite my having received an email indicating that it had.

    Apparently, we got a new credit card number in the past year (which I'd forgotten), invalidating the old one. Mlb didn't see fit to notify me that the card they had on file was no longer valid.

    Great job, guys!!!!

      1. I called. The service Betty (sounded like someone from some balkan republic) was very helpful and respectful. I'm in.

      2. Yeah MLB is really scummy about this. I had to change it off of one credit card to another about 5 years ago.

        It ended with a letter from the Illinois State Attorney General's office. That got through to them.

  77. Good news, guys - the Twins have the same number of hits as the Orioles.

  81. Wait, Jeremy Guthrie is in Colorado now? That's good news.

    The last 12-game winner for Baltimore was Bedard five years ago. I know, I know, "Wins." But...12. Seriously.

  82. Ruh roh. Chrissy-Chrissy Parm-Parm switched to the Groundskeeper number? Bad idea.

    1. I looked at a certain first baseman's minor league numbers a little while ago, and I'll tell you that to me, Parmelee's track record compares slightly unfavorably to this guy's. Spooky's here so I'm not going to say his name out loud, though.

  85. BTW, I passed at least four women on the plane who were both a) at least 50 years old and b) reading The Hunger Games.

    2. Yesterday I took two of our cats to the vet. When I came inside, both the receptionist (a girl in her twenties) and our vet (a woman in her mid-forties, I'm guessing) commented that my old, faded red Ford F100 looked "like Bella's in Twilight!!11!!1!" Apparently the girl character drives an old orange pickup. I was flattered, of course.

      I seriously don't know why grown folks read that stuff.

      1. Well, I will at least say that I don't believe The Hunger Games and the Twilight books should be brought up in the same conversation.

  88. It makes me feel incredibly old to realize that it was ten years ago - 2002! - when Jacque Jones led off the season with a homer and added another as the Twins pounded the Royals on Opening Day. I still remember that game way too vividly for it to be that old.

    2. I remember watching Torii Hunter play AAA ball in Salt Lake City like it was yesterday. It was 12 years ago.

      1. Wait until you're remembering things from twenty and thirty years ago like it was yesterday.

    1. I suppose if it's going to be a pathetic loss, it may as well be a fast pathetic loss. Then I can go watch the Diamondbacks lose to Lincecum!

          2. Also, the Twins' win expectancy has been below 40% since the bottom of the 1st. That doesn't exactly make for a captivating game.

  91. Good to know I am remembered for something around here albeit foul language.

    It will be interesting to see if I develop enough emotion to care about the Twins to use foul language this season. I kind of doubt it. Moving to Vegas allows me to legally bet on baseball and replace following a contending team with gambling against a rebuilding team to enjoy the summer game.

    1. wait, what?

      Dudes, we all have a place to stay in VEGAS!!!!!!111111ONEBILLION1111!!!!

      1. Even better than a place to stay - is access to local deals! My wife and I have been to numerous shows on the strip for free and we have hooked up a number of friends with discounted hotel rooms.

        It goes without saying - if your going to be in Vegas give me a two or three weeks notice and I will do what I can to help you out!

        1. Sheenie and I are going next month (13th-16th of May). Work your magic!

  92. I miss Hardy. Are any of the other guys from Always Sunny available? We could pick up DeVito, I bet he'd walk a lot.

            1. Oh, right, Todd was in all of them. I just automatically think of Rusty's entry when that challenge comes up. Easiest winner pick I ever made, no counting the ones where only one finalist showed up.

  97. I feel like Revere would have been standing under that for a few seconds before it got there.

        1. You're a nerd for answering your own nerdy question. Man I love this place, well done sean.

  115. Mediocre pitching, I expected. But a continuation of last year's impotent offense is more disturbing. Bring up that Viagra kid from AAA and get him in the lineup!

  122. The writing in this Twins bowling commercial drives me nuts. Why the narrator? Why the narrator saying something and then Gardy saying exactly the same thing? Such bad writing.

    1. "Wins" are a clearly overrated stat. (This is going to be a recurring theme for 2012 I'm afraid)

  131. Why are there New Era ads on Fangraphs proclaiming New Era to be the official cap of "CHI-TOWN"? Would they prefer if I never buy their products again?

  132. Given the way this game is going, I decided to crack out the ol' anagram server for some of our new Twins.

    Chris Parmelee is a gold mine. Preacher smile; Herpes claimer; and Sleepier charm are just a sampling.

    Ryan Doumit = Nudity roam, which brings to mind another Twins catcher.

    Jamey Carroll = Clearly major.

      1. my goodness, you are right

        2011: 1-4 hr
        2010: 4-5 2b hr
        2009: 0-4
        2008: 2-3 2r bb

  139. Remember that grand year when the Twins scored a lot of 2-out runs and won games in seemingly incredible ways.

    Yeah... me neither.

  141. Four runs in seven innings is really about as good as we can reasonably expect from Pavano. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like it's going to be good enough.

    1. Yeah if he averages that a good hitting team should reasonably expect to win at least half those games.

      Of course it is impossible to win any game with 0 runs.

    2. 4 K, 2 BB, 11 groundouts to 5 fly outs, limited wear on the bullpen. Not a bad outing, really.

  145. I should have known that this game would clip along, but I'd be annoyed that I got to see all of it.

    Sooooooo...anyone near Chase Field? We've got an extra ticket.

  146. For the love of Pete, I understand wanting to compete, but the worst sign I've seen from this game is a pitching change when we're down 4 runs in the 8th with a 1% WE. If Gray wasn't going to be allowed to work out of a 1st and 2nd one out jam, he shouldn't have been inserted in the first place.

      1. Sure, Markakis is a tough out, but if you're worried enough about him to have Duensing warming up, why not just unleash Duensing? He's been good enough against righties that they've let him start 50 games and they're letting him pitch to Adam Jones. Even th ough Duensing does have fairly extreme splits, they've got to find some relief pitchers who can make it through a full freakin' inning.

      1. Some managers do like to do that. I'm not really arguing in favor of the move, but there is a theory that says you want to get everyone in a game as soon as possible.

  154. the gal who did that Gander Mountain weather report looked like Chelsea Handler.

  162. It's a little early in the season, but Mauer has a .500 OBP. Just sayin'. 🙂

  166. One of our guys hit the ball over some fencing they put up in the outfield. Is that legal?

    1. Obviously you have to have your best pitcher facing Doumit-Valencia-Parmelee and not Mauer-Morneau-Willingham.

  173. I still cant believe Josh Willingham is the most expensive free agent buy in franchise history.

  175. Live look-in at MLB.tv- has anyone mentioned that the Orioles bird cartoon on their caps is freakin' ridiculous?

  176. I know it's a better bench than last year, but I sure wish the Twins had somebody better than Plouffe! to send up to bat right now.

  177. Plouffe!, Revere, Burroughs earliers...man its like the Twins have flexibility or something.

  181. If there are extra innings, even more chances for Gardy to use every player in the first game.

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