first and foremost: i am extremely far down on the list of analysts of our hometown squadron. faaaaaar down. that said, i'd like to query the nation: is it time for regime change? and if so, how far up the ladder?
it's been noted that there are questions about the medical staff. the training staff. the front office. the management. up and down the farm system. what changes are needed?
all of those are valid questions, and a debate in themselves. in what we can more immediately see, how about gardy? he was given the dreaded vote of confidence by the ownership, but is it time for a change to be made? how much of gardy's success has been a fertile farm system that continually supplied him with major league talent?
please don't misunderstand me, i'm not saying that it's time to FIRE GARDY AND VARVA!, but i think we're reaching a point where it's becoming a valid conversation. to be fair, he's had to deal with an antietam of injuries (again, medical staff? training staff?), and bare cupboards in the farm system (front office? farm management?). however, that is nothing new for a lot of baseball teams.
personally i feel that, yes, gardy doesn't have a lot to work with. even so, or maybe even more importantly, he doesn't seem able to manage what he has. gleeman's been banging the platoon drum for years. the rigid lineup by position has been in effect for just as long. why does he (if it is him) have an insistence on redundant pitchers, extra catchers, non-boat rockers, and scrappy middle infielders to the detriment of the rest of the roster? is it time for a manager with a more savvy, problem-solving approach to take the reins? new blood instead of old guard? as an honest question that i'm not quite sure how to answer, what strengths does gardenhire bring to the table in dealing with the situation he has in front of him?
again, i'm not advocating a position, just a conversation...
I'm firmly in the Fire Gardy camp at this point. I think he plays favorites, he's allowed his best player to be ridiculed, he's publicly criticized injured players, etc.
I have friends that say the problem with the Twins is that they don't have any fiery players. I dont know that is true but the team does seem like they discourage certain personalities and they are quick to jettison players (and ridicule them in the press) if they don't follow the company line.
I think it is also telling to see the only two players that can turn on the ball being free agent signings. We need to get away from the opposite field theory of hitting. No right handed batter wants to hit the ball to right center in this park.
So they want fiery players, but Garza and Lohse were exchanged for peanuts, OHud allowed to become a free-agent.
OHud deserved to become a free agent - he was vastly overrated. If you want to talk about Hardy, though...
Hudson had a great season in 2010. He was old and played above his head on defense, sure, but I don't think the Twins evaluated that at all when they let him go as a free agent. Hardy on the other hand should've been a long term building block, and I think I'll be sour about that trade for years to come.
Ohud lead the league in outs created. I don't even remember his defense, but he was a pit at the #2 spot in the order.
Yeah, the doubles were nice, but you can't have a #2 getting base barely over once every three plate appearances.
But.. he played second! Who else could bat second?
The average No. 2 hitter in the AL in 2010 had a .333 OBA.
Not a good comparison. Many other teams ascribe to the philosophy of "good bat handlers" batting second, which will negatively affect the league average offense for that position.
Why is that not a good comparison? The statement was "you can't have a #2 getting base barely over once every three plate appearances." The response was that that's what the average #2 did. Clearly, you'd like better than that if you can get it, but it says that Hudson, in 2010, was about a league average #2 hitter, at least based on OBP. That's pretty much what the Twins should've expected when they signed him. That's not to say they should necessarily kept him, but it doesn't say he's without value, either.
You're right, it's perfectly fine. I interpreted it has comparing Hudson's OBP to the league average OBP for the number two hitter.
Yeah, three or four nicely-timed hits do not a positive season make. He was otherwise a total drag on the offense.
He was a -1 in linear weights for the season. He just missed being a league average hitter. How is that a total drag on the offense?
Huh. I guess I'm underrating him as much as some are overrating him. I thought I remembered him being much worse than that.
and apparently he's turning into cristian guzman now.
I was hoping you meant he was growing the evil beard, but alas. I guess this is acceptable too.
[citation needed]
B-R has him making 389 outs in 2010. The MLB leader was Derek Jeter with 511. Hudson was 117th. Span had more outs; he tied for tenth with 479 outs. Now, part of this is because he played only 126 games. In outs/game, he was second on the team with 3.02, narrowly edging out Cuddyer's 3.01 outs/game.
How's that figured? If Hudson grounded into a fielder's choice with Span being forced at second, that goes down as Span being out, but it should be an out created for Hudson, right?
Outs = AB - H + CS + GDP. Since a fielder's choice isn't a hit, that would count as an out for Hudson.
Gotcha- that makes sense.
He was +12.8 runs according to UZR/150. He was worth 3.5 fWAR, largely due to his very good defense. He maybe should not have been batting second, but that's not really his fault. His OBP was right in line with his career averages, and he was on a very team friendly contract. He wasn't nearly as good last year, but he would've been better than Nishi, Casilla, Tolbot, et al. The Twins' middle infield has been a black hole of suck for years. Re-signing Hudson would've helped. Again, I would have preferred Hardy to stick around, but Hudson was better than the alternatives.
Oh, I will agree that he was absolutely better than anyone they've stuck out there shortly before or since. There absolutely has to be a reason he played for four teams in four years, though.
Nitpick: you don't want to use UZR/150 in this case, just UZR. That's the tally of how many runs a player saved in the season. UZR/150 is what you would use when trying to predict a player's fielding, given enough data.
Appreciate that. In that case, he saved 9 runs per UZR.
Oh crap, I'm thinking OCab. My bad!
-1 point
Oh GAWD, so was I! Forget everything, Sean.
courier new font ftw
I thought this might be the case. I kept reading this over and over. OCab was the Rally Killing Whale.
This whole back and forth makes a lot more sense now.
ORLANDO BALLGAME!
Yeah, I still miss him.
no, you're thinking Orlando Florida
I've never cared for Gardy, but I think this team has bigger problems. The medical staff and front office are both bigger problems than the manager. The manager of a team actually does very little to help a team in comparison to the actual talent he's given. An A+ manager with C talent will do worse than a C manager with A+ talent--every time.
That's where I am. I'm no fan of Gardy; I think all managers are idiots to varying degrees. Roster management isn't his fault, with the possible exception of players with certain personalities. I'm sure he asked for 13 pitchers and three catchers, but it was Ryan who made the moves.
I don't think a change at manager would make a huge difference but I really don't see what Gardy does well anymore. His one asset was that he was a players' manager and he protected his players. Now it feels like he doesn't even do that. He constantly rips them in the press (or at least doesn't defend them). And it seems as if he has "his guys."
This.
Say that the medical staff is a problem. (I am loathe to assert this with much certainty since I'm am not in sports medicine and there's only so much they can do with an injured player--the biggest problem is that the players are getting injured in the first place and you need trainers and coaches to prevent that sort of thing, not doctors.) Is it really going to change significantly if Gardy sticks around?
Also, while the front office deserves criticism, Gardy surely influences the construction of the 25-man roster, and I think that a different voice at manager would have resulted in different roster decisions. Some players have also been shipped out more or less because Gardy has something of a personal issue with them--Lohse, Garza, Bartlett come to mind. With a different manager at the helm, maybe those guys don't get shipped out, or maybe the Twins at least wait for a better deal.
Normally I'm reluctant to say that a manager should be replaced, because you get situations like in Seattle where a new manager is nearly an annual ritual. But Gardy's been around for a long time now and just because there are bigger changes that could be made doesn't keep the team from making smaller changes that might have some impact. I think he was the right guy to replace TK when he did, but he doesn't seem like the right guy to turn lemons into lemonade.
I don't know - I agree that a manager doesn't make a huge amount of difference one way or the other, so I guess it's better the manager you know than the manager you don't know. That said, I can't really gin up much passion for that position. FIRE GRADY!!?!? Sure.
Whether there should be a change or not, I just don't see it happening unless it's voluntary. If the Twins wouldn't fire TK after the string of losing that team went through, I don't see them firing Gardy now. That being said, it wouldn't surprise me all that much to see Gardy step down. I've been wondering if that happened, would TK be willing to make a comeback, even as an interim. And as far as the front office goes, they already fired their GM. Plus, most of TR's major moves have succeeded. The only big failure so far is Marquis, and his deal is just for one year and not that much, so they could jettison him easily enough. Unfortunately, his failure hurts the most because the starting pitching has just been so bad. At least we're starting to see some improvement with the addition of Diamond and P.J. It wouldn't surprise me to see Swarzak and Marquis swapped before too long. As for the offense, it was actually doing decently until Morneau got hurt and Mauer too the foul tip and went into his slump. If neither of those two are hitting, this offense is in big trouble.
I fear for PJ and Diamond long term once hitters make adjustments.
I'm not at all surprised that Marquis isn't working out, I can understand why they signed him, but they've signed his analog in 4 of the past 7 or so offseasons and none have worked out. (Ponson, Ortiz, Livan, Marquis.)
I don't know about PJ, but if Diamond can keep hitting his spots the way he did in his first two starts I'm not worried about him. A guy with really good control can adjust to whatever adjustment hitters make against him. Agreed that this offense really needs Mauer and Morneau healthy, Willingham can't do it all by himself.
The only big failure is Marquis?? I think that Zumaya debacle deserves mentioning.
i wouldn't call the zumaya signing a debacle. it was a low risk, high reward shot that didn't work out for them. however, they fact that they didn't have a backup plan was somewhat questionable.
Jared Burton? The Twins signed two veteran setup men with injury histories to low-risk contracts hoping at least one would work out. And one has so far. The bullpen has been very good and is probably the strength of the team at this point.
Zumaya SIGNING wasn't a debacle, but loophole that forced the Twins to pay him the entire contract even though he never threw a pitch? Debacle. Total embarrassment
Yeah, that was a poorly constructed contract- bad enough that I'd consider that part a debacle.
ahh, yes, i'd
blocked that outforgotten that.As I recall, they were very close to firing TK after the 2000 season, and he basically begged for one more year, saying the club was on the verge of being good. Turned out he was right.
I don't see him wanting to manage again, though. He's had chances and turned them down.
I thought I remembered that he was leaving but the Twins bigged him to stay one more year, for the same reason. Why else wouldn't they have kept him on longer then? He himself was ready to leave.
I could be wrong, of course, but the way I remember it was that he begged for one more year and it turned out to be a good one. After that, the Twins were willing to keep him on longer, but he decided he'd had enough. It would be an interesting question for someone who has more time/inclination to do so than I have to research, though.
That is the way I remember it too. Fans had gotten tired of TK being so negative in the media and it sounded like they would fire him. He said he thought the team was just a year away and wanted to stay one more year.
if I remember right, Chris Clauser was running things for the Pohlads at that time and he wanted TK (and Terry Ryan) gone.
I've often said that it's unlikely the Twins would hire someone better than Gardy to be his replacement. Until I hear that someone like Tito is coming to town just to visit with the Pohlads, or that TK is taking a more active role as "special advisor", I say leave him in place. (I don't know who else I would trust. If Scioscia is fired in Los Angeles/Anaheim and the Twins hire him, I'll officially change designation to Royals fan.)
I'm definitely in support of doing something with the training/medical staff. I've mentioned it before, but three years Rany Jazayerli wrote a very tough assessment of the Royals' training staff, and basically came to the objective conclusion that they needed to go. The same is probably true of the Twins' trainers. If nothing else, they need someone who will be firm and stand their ground to management's desire to return ailing players to the active roster, and to tell the same management that the injured players need to be supported to the press.
I feel that GMBS made some very poor decisions during his tenure, and though GMTR's prior results were very good, I don't know how long I'll support him. I think I'll wait to see how the trade deadline and offseason go. I'd like to see more evidence that they're learning from their mistakes (every veteran free-agent SP ever signed) and not just their successes of a decade ago. I'd like to see that they've learned from the recent statistical work. I'd like to see them stand-up for players, and to give well-performing non-prospects in AAA a decent chance, especially in bad years (Slama, Chuck James). Heck, that's how the Twins ended up with 4 bWAR from washed-up starter Dennys Reyes. (Just looked at b-r again. 507 ERA+ in 50.2 IP for 2006. 191 ERA+ in 126.1 IP over the three years.) These players may not be great, but they are lottery tickets and I feel like the Twins are buying lottery tickets just to line the birdcage and they rarely stop to see if any of them are winners.
I don't think that will happen, but I also don't believe that a change in GM or Field Manager will change unless the Pohlads and Dave St.Peter look for those things. I haven't heard the Pohlads out in public supporting Mauer or anything, so I doubt it's valued. Seems penny and pound foolish to me.
I've often said that it's unlikely the Twins would hire someone better than Gardy to be his replacement.
There's one name I'd like to see considered: Paul Molitor. I don't know if he'd still be interested (I think he was considered when Gardy was hired?), but I think he'd be a good candidate from what I've seen of him/heard from him as he's served as a coach.
One of the things that I think is Gardy's biggest failing is his teaching ability. When all of the young guys were coming up at the beginning of the 2000's, they'd learned a lot of smart baseball. When Gardy took over, it looked like guys were still learning those things. Now it doesn't. I think that the people coming up in the early part of Gardy's term had benefited from previous education. That effect has now worn off, and let's face it... Gardy ain't a great teacher.
I said this the other day, but historically, the way the Twins have gotten talent has been through their farm system. That system has let them down in recent years. The most likely way their going to get good again is through their farm system, but that takes time.
What are the odds that they'll trade Mauer? At one time I believed that trading joe was unthinkable, but with the way the FO has left him out in the breeze I'm beginning to rethink his status with the Twins.
0. Zero chance they'll trade Mauer. First, that big a contract is crazy tough to trade, and because of it they'd get minimal return. Second, though there is a certain strata of fan out there booing Mauer, there's also a lot of fan-value to Mauer - casual fans and intelligent fans still love 'im. It's just the non-thinking Barriero listeners who don't like him. His value in MN is > his value anywhere else. They keep him.
Aye. In marketing value alone, Mauer is well worth his contract to this organization.
also, doesn't he have full no-trade clauses?
Yes. It was only a minor addition though, since he would have gotten it anyway in 2014 (or maybe end of 2013 season) because of 10-and-5 rights.
At the game yesterday, the shirts on the kids were almost all Mauers.
I wouldnt say there is a zero chance because the Blue Jays somehow got teams to take Alex Rios and Vernon Wells, but the chance of Mauer being traded is pretty low.
I dont want him traded
I think that the front office should shoulder most of the blame for this team's construction right now. The training and strength & conditioning staff need to completely be overhauled. The team desperately needs to hire a team of stats guys to, at the very least, catch up with all the other teams in the league. I do know that TR had some hand in Wild Bill gutting the team of its assets, but I think he's probably the best option to right the ship at this point.
I'd be against making a change for the sake of making a change, but I agree with AMR that if the Twins have a shot at getting Tito to be the on field manager, I'd make a move. I think Gardenhire has done well enough that he deserves another go-round with an actual major league pitching staff, and hopefully the front office can assemble one next year. That being said, I think Gardy maybe has a bit too much influence on the roster construction. He needs to have some say in the players on his 25 man roster, but I feel like some of the decisions he makes are very poor (feeling like JJ Hardy not having enough "speed" was the issue on the team, carrying three catchers, one of whom is one of the worst hitters in MLB, the way he plays favorites, etc). In these cases there needs to be someone to put their foot down. TR said there would be no scholarships under his regime, I think that needs to be applied to Gardenhire.
The team desperately needs to hire a team of stats guys to, at the very least, catch up with all the other teams in the league.
This kind of ties in with what socal and Philo said yesterday. The team isn't adapting very well. The hitters aren't adapting to new pitches and the front office isn't adapting to new ways of assembling a team.
And yet, at the same time, the absolute last thing we want is guys who will try to "catch up with all the other teams." Instead we want guys who will identify and seek out their own market ineffeciences to take advantage of. Of course, they'd darn well better use stats in doing that...
When you're far behind, you have to first catch up with the rest.
I disagree. If finding market inefficiencies and capitalizing on them is how you get ahead in the league, if you're already behind, then trying to do the same thing as everybody else is going to keep you behind.
While I obviously want the best possible team of stats guys, I think they need to get people in place in order to start to come around to this way of thinking. And I think they need to do it soon. It would sadden me greatly if Mauer doesn't win a title as a Twin.
I'm not entirely sure what you're saying here.
Just doing statistical analysis alone doesn't get you much. Also, the Twins have hired at least one person to do it, though how well heard that voice is within the organization is unknown.
I doubt that the Twins will find any market inefficiencies when the other teams are looking for (and finding) those very same market inefficiencies much better.
I think you misunderstand the concept of market inefficiencies. If everyone is targeting the same stuff, then it's just a market, not a market inefficiency.
Just because you have guys on staff who analyze statistics doesn't mean that you are automatically going to value every player the same as every other team in the league. Ignoring statistics isn't taking advantage of some kind of market inefficiency.
The name of the game is player evaluation. The better you are at evaluating players, the better you will be at getting net value in trades. And ignoring statistics is no way to improve your ability to evaluate players.
Yes. That's why I said what I said:
we want guys who will identify and seek out their own market ineffeciences to take advantage of. Of course, they'd darn well better use stats in doing that...
The implication in your response here is that I was advocating ignoring statistics. I don't appreciate the implication.
The point I was arguing was in response to Zack/Sean's desire to simply fill those player evaluation positions with people who will "catch up to" the rest of the league (that is, people who are just like what other teams have and will simply be market participants, not people who take advantage of market inefficiencies).
That's not really what I was trying to say, though what I said came out pretty poorly. Basically what I'm saying is that yeah, I'd like them to have the best statistical analysts in their front office. But I'd be more concerned with them having several guys who have input into the decision making process. I don't think it'll be perfect right away, but they need to start somewhere.
I didn't mean the Twins needed to replicate exactly what other teams do, but rather need to catch up in how they evaluate players. They can't try to exploit the next thing (pitch tracking is one IMO) without understanding previous work.
Ok, good. It definitely sounded to me like you guys just wanted exactly what other teams have (I take this to be largely what, say, Gleeman calls for too). Glad to know that's not the case.
When you're making trades it can be useful to anticipate the other team's viewpoint. Given the Twins' general reluctance to get into stats, I think they don't understand the players on their own roster who might be highly valued on the market, and they could be leaving something on the table by not understanding that perceived value. For instance, consider Wilson Ramos. He potentially had a lot more value than they thought he did, and they might have pushed to get more in return for him if they had a stats team that they trusted telling them that there were a lot of things about Ramos that other teams would value highly.
At any rate, good decision-makers + better information = better decisions. Having more and better stats guys on staff shouldn't hurt. I also don't think there are market inefficiencies out there in that I don't think there are entire classes of players being over/undervalued. But there are individual players which are over/undervalued by individual teams, and you have to look for those opportunities one at a time.
That is to say, it's not an efficient market, but you don't need to be anywhere in particular on the stats vs. scouts spectrum to spot the good deals on the market. It's best to have stats and scouts, and the Twins are lacking in the former.
No one is saying they shouldn't have more and better stats guys! Who are you arguing with?
For what it's worth, I very much agree with your "market inefficiencies may be too broad a term, and we're really talking about individual players" idea.
I don't have anything in particular against Joe Vavra, but it would be kind of fun to have Tom Brunansky as the hitting coach. So shuffle Vavra around somewhere and let Bruno work with these guys in the cage for awhile. We've had way too many Mendozas in game lineups this year.
as the AAA hitting coach, he practically is working with all these guys.
If we are looking for a new manager, I nominate Jose Canseco. Tell me you wouldn't tune in to see that.
Only if he promised to bring back the glory days of player-managers.
I just threw up a little in my mouth.
I'll nominate Ozzie Canseco, just to spite you 😛
Hire Jose and have Ozzie fill in when Jose can't make it!
Pfft. Why not go all the way and trade for Manny Ramirez to be the player/manager?
That's an idea. Do we have any top-tier prospects we can offer Oakland?
Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario might do the trick.
If we're going to give both of them, we should really get a decent reliever for our investment. I'm thinking getting Grant Balfour might not be out of the realm of possibility.
Fire everyone starting with the owner.
Make Joe Mauer player-manager.
What they should have done is TRADE Gardy when he had some value. Could they get anything for him nowadays?
has trading someone when their value is at rock bottom ever stopped them before?
So long as Ozzie Guillen is in the league, Gardy's value will never be rock bottom.