122 thoughts on “May 23, 2012: Positives”

    1. Cool man.

      (did I hold up my end yet? My memory is terrible these days. I'll have a couple more to get out to you in about a month if you're still going to be in the states. or if you come up to the Greater Beloit Area for a Snappers game.)

          1. Nope. It's all good. I will be in the States for awhile this summer. Let's both hold off on shipping costs and trade at the Snappers game on June 30th, if that happens. If not, we can always mail later.

            1. Sounds pretty good to me. And for what its worth, I believe I have decided to make a wit this weekend to complement the new black IPA I'm making and am really excited about.

            2. are you guys sure you guys want to do it on the 30th? that seems like a really bad day to go. i heard it was going to rain. a lot. and the snappers told me they were going to play very badly as well.

      1. Did you conclusively identify the game though? I held off on more research hoping Mags would join in (okay, and had to do work).

        1. Well, I think I did, but it hasn't undergone independent verification. We decided it was in 2001 in Chicago, that they were wearing their 1917 throwback unis (which they only wore on Sundays I believe), and it was a day game. The play was at second; not sure who the opponent player is or whether second baseman or shortstop.

  1. On Sunday the Twins got outscored 4:1. Last night the Twins outscored the Sox 4.5:1. All is forgiven in my mind.

    Seriously though: Setting the ERA bar at 5.00. Out of Scott Diamond and PJ Walters, how many finish the year worse than that? I've got the over-under at 1.5.

    1. Under, I think one of the two could potentially be real enough to pull off a low to mid 4 ERA.

      More interesting is how many different pitchers make more than one start for the Twins this year. I'm setting the over/under at 11.5.

      1. Let's look at some historical comparisons for your second line. Looking at the Twins, 1961 through today.

        The record is 13 starters, set in 1962 and tied in 1995. 12 different starters has happened five times: 1961, 1963, 1982, 1987, and 1997. 11 different starters has happened six times: 1968, 1975, 1985, 1989, 1996, and 2009. 10 starters has happened 12 times (most recently in 2006), 9 starters has happened 13 times (2010 and 2011).

        I'm going to guess the under on 11.5. The Twins have used eight different starters so far this year, with DeVries soon to be number nine. I think that number will hold steady for a while. A tenth starter seems inevitable, but I'm not yet sure who that will be.

        1. I'd put money on Duensing starting a game at some point. And I wouldn't be surprised if they picked up a couple of weirdos off of the trading deadline scrap heap and had them make a few starts.

          1. Nine is a lock with De Vries coming to start. Like you say, Duensing is a pretty solid bet to make a couple starts. That's ten. I'm guessing that either Diamond or Walters will come back to earth pretty heavily (Diamond, if I had to make a bet between the two). By then, I'm sure Blackburn will be back, though.

            I'm going to say 'Under', but it'll probably be close.

        2. Has swizzle stick started yet this year? What about Man-shed? 11.5 seems an appropriate O/U and I'll take the over to even the votes.

          1. Swiz has, Man-shed hasn't, and neither has the Dunce. Like I said, I think it'll probably be under, but only just.

    2. Both Walters and Diamond have better K rates (6.3 and 6.1) than anyone else the Twins have started except for Liriano. Those numbers are still less than their minor league rates (although Diamond's is pretty close). It's their walk rates that have dropped, but I think the Twins can do a lot more to help pitchers with that than anything else, so it wouldn't surprise me if they both have more success than expected with the Twins. At this point, it certainly is hard to imagine them being any worse than what the Twins started with.

      1. Meanwhile, Billy Bullock has a K rate of 6.5 and a walk rate of 8.1. He's still stuck at AA.

  2. Last night, after golf, my dad and I watched the last few innings of the Twins game. During that time, we had a fairly in depth discussion of FIP, and the media's beef with Mauer. Moneyball primed his interest in the former, and he's completely fed up with the latter.

    Throw in the fact that the Twins won and looked good doing it, and yesterday evening was pretty awesome.

  3. Last night we lost a heartbreaker of a softball game. Despite me going 3 for 3 including a double (that NEVER happens) and a walk, we couldn't stop the bleeding late in the game.

    We were up 11-3 at one point, they came back to lead 12-11, then we went up 14-12, then they went up 16-14, then we went up again 18-16.

    In the last inning, they were home team, they had a runner on third and the batter hit a comebacker to me at pitcher. I threw home (becuase the guy went) and thought we had him out, but instead the ump called the catcher off the plate (he was touching the black mat behind the plate, not the plate... didn't count. I was so mad... but being church league softball, decided to let it go. They won the game two batters later with a line drive up the middle.

    Really though, we sort of deserved to lose. There was an easy pop fly to left center that popped out of a glove when the LF and LCF couldn't call the ball. Our 1B let one get past him that allowed a man to score from 2B. Our SS couldn't field anything cleanly (not always his fault). So we gave them a lot more outs and runs than we should have. Still... it was within our grasp. Still 0-4 this year.

    And yet I'm still having a blast.

        1. Hey, don't pick on him; he's been to more KC WGOM get-togethers than you have, and he's not even a Citizen! Plus, you know, when your team stops hitting and fielding, there's only so much a pitcher can do...

  4. The Twins have been intentionally balled nine times this year.

    Mauer: 3
    Morneau: 3
    Doumit: 3

    Willingham never has. I wonder how much of that is lineup order versus the fact he's a right-hander.

    1. Much as I dislike the fact that he's pitching for my favorite baseball team, I've never seen anything that he's done or said to make me think that he's anything less than a very personable individual.

      1. He was far more acknowledging of the Twins fans behind the bullpen on Sunday than any other pitcher there. That includes Perkins even though I went to freekin high school with the guy.

        1. Better than a .875 WHIP, 9:1 SO:BB ratio; and and aLI of 1.886? (I actually have no idea what an aLI is, it's one of the many obscure columns at baseball-reference.)

          1. Average Leverage Index. It isn't that useful since a pitcher can create leverage.

          2. That's Leverage Index. It's not measuring his pitching itself, but the average weightiness of the situations he's pitching in.

          3. Also, not to pick on you, but SO/BB is decreasingly useful the lower a pitcher's walk rate is. Especially when BB/9 drops below 1.0. Right now, his BB/9 is at 0.6, inflating an average SO-BB to an elite-looking SO/BB

            1. No worries, I don't feel picked on. I don't disagree with your point; I think my overall point that Capps has been an adequate closer still stands. Yes, it's still prudent to hold one's breath every time he takes the mound, but he's in the lonely group of Twins' pitchers who have made a positive contribution in 2012.

              My use of aLI was more of a (weak) joke to show how I was cherry picking stats to make my point.

              1. I think we got pretty spoiled having Nathan as a closer. When you go from having an elite closer to having an average one, the difference is frustrating.

              2. Twins have seven pitchers with a positive rWAR, and that doesn't include Perkins. Only two of them are starting pitchers (Diamond and Walters), although Swarzak has a couple starts, but I think all of his positive contributions have been from the 'pen). Gray barely qualifies at 0.1 rWAR (But he's 3-0!!!1111!!!).

      1. How do you figure out the context of this comment? The Twitters is a mystery to me. (though I suppose with statfreak, it really doesn't matter what the context is.)

        1. The thread started when he said that he wanted Capps to quit throwing piss ropes or some such, as I recall.

          1. Was it only a couple of years ago that you weren't able to directly tell a professional athlete to stop throwing piss ropes?

            1. You could always tell them to stop throwing piss ropes by writing them a letter, you just didn't get the satisfaction of having your flame seen by 542 other people.

        2. Normally, the tweet would be in response to another, allowing you to view the conversation when you expand it (might be done by default when viewing a single one, I don't recall). However, if it's an isolated tweet (that probably should have been a reply), then you need to view the original person's timeline. Start slightly before the tweet in question and go back; usually you only need to scan a day or two at most.

      1. Sadly that Perkins has been closed and sitting dormant waiting for a new tenant for a few years now.

        1. aw man, i spent many late hours drinking coffee in there, though probably not quite as much as the one down west on 50th.

    2. I wonder where he's eating. I could suggest a great breakfast place in Chicago, but I bet they are staying in some hotel in the Loop, and I doubt there's one anywhere near there.

  5. From LEN III's blog (which I assume everyone has already read, but still...)

    Cole De Vries had his gear packed in his old Gophers bag as he tried to leave the clubhouse after the game, and Gardy was all over the newbie. "Son, you need to get a suitcase," Gardy said. "And you can get someone to carry that bag for you. This is the big leagues."

    Then Gardy noticed that De Vries had the heavy-looking bag slung over his pitching shoulder. "Is that your right shoulder?" Gardy said. "I'm really not comfortable with this situation now."

    Everyone within earshot was busting up laughing. Gardy was kidding, in case you weren't sure.

    This sounds like a Twins club that's been having fun. I didn't really tune into Milwaukee blowout, but when I heard Butera was pitching I wondered if maybe Gardy wasn't just having a little bit of fun, to lighten the off day and help stem the funk that could develop after a brutal loss.

    If we assume that teams having fun generally perform better (and of course the opposite is true, but there seems to be at least some anecdotal evidence for this statement, and whatever... it's just an assumption for these purposes), do we need to be giving Gardy some credit here? And I say this as someone who was just saying he has no value to the team anymore...

          1. Speaking of points, who had the coors light patent line from the other day? That one gets a point too.

              1. Is there a way I can dig up old CoC? (That was in a CoC, right?) I haven't figured it out yet, not that I've really tried. I'd love to be able to link to that one.

                  1. Ah, in the daily CoC. I was trying to do it from the main page, and there's no tag there.

                  2. tag category.

                    There's also the 'Archives' page (right-most option in the menu at the top), which lists every category available. Hmm, I think I'll look into adding a tag cloud to that page. We have 1,553 tags and it would be nice to see the selection.

                    You can search the comments via the Dashboard if you remember the comment well enough. I find it helps to filter to a particular category and then try a few keywords. It's not a great search, but it works well enough.

                    1. tag category.

                      whatever (actually, i realized the distinction as i hit send, but couldn't be bothered).

                    2. actually, i realized the distinction as i hit send, but couldn't be bothered

                      We have a term for such stuff: half-baked crap.

                  1. Yeah, that wasn't the one I was looking for actually. Sorry DW. I was thinking of the thermal color changing paint one...

      1. The talk to actual play ratio is way too high to make football that interesting to me.

        1. I am always amused at football fans who complain that baseball is "too slow."

    1. Three years ago the Viking's third string quarterback was Sage Rosenfels. That is still true today. Yes, the NFL is totally predictable.

    1. its a great place to go. If you turn the franchise around, you are a hero in a second town. If not, well, you walk away with some money.

  6. Tyson Chandler wins Defensive Player of the year, but doesn't make the All NBA Defensive First team. Hilarious.

  7. Hey guys, stuck in the bowels of the Hennepin County Govt Center in the jury duty corral. I was in call in status and got called in because they had 4 cases that needed juries. Been here since 9:00a and not one person has been called to be even interviewed for a case.

    The corral is windowless and nicely accentuated in government beige. There is wireless however and lots of magazines.

    1. 10 minutes after a post this I find out I'm in a Jury selection pool starting at 9:30a Thursday. Obviously I can't talk anymore about this.

    2. When I was in law school, my property class went on a field trip to the HCGC to see how property deeds were recorded. While on the tour in that esteemed building, a mouse made an appearance and scurried through the office. Nice.

    1. That's a pretty loose definition of prayer. Also, it's awesome that his mom was involved in laying the smack down.

      1. It was also a private school where such edicts don't exist. Also, "'She was really mad,' Shriner said, referring to his mother, 'but I think it was worth it.'"

        1. I think Tebowing is annoying (as any meme), but man, that kids mom sounds like an incredibly unpelasant lady.

    1. Doumit playing again is nice to see. I honestly believed that after playing yesterday, he would be out for another week before going on the DL.

    2. I don't understand what the right fielder is doing batting second. Isn't that a middle infielder job?

      1. But Revere batted there yesterday. Since he's fast, that's okay. Mastroianni is batting second because the right fielder batted there yesterday, so it's okay too.

  8. Here's a fun one for the attorney folk out there (the discussion I had about it really took me back to law school):

    Assume you don't have the proper witness to authenticate a document but you aren't submitting the document for its content, but rather as evidence of the fact the document exists. Opposing counsel objects on hearsay grounds. What's the ruling? (Assuming no other exemptions).

    1. I'm not a lawyer, but I used to watch LA Law

      If you don't have a witness to authenticate that a document is what you say it is, how can you present it as evidence that a particular document exists?

      1. Because you can see the document. If the existence of bigfoot is in question and I present you with the actual bigfoot, I don't need the guy who captured bigfoot there to explain to you what you're looking at.

        1. yea, but I can type up a document and claim that it is an original of the Declaration of Independence. That doesn't make it so. All you know is that it is a document.

          1. Sure. And if you do that, I can rebut it by introducing other evidence. But hearsay only applies when you are introducing an out of court statement to assert the truth of that statement, not when you're introducing an out of court statement (the document) for some other purpose (to establish the document's existence). I suppose if all the document said was "I exist" then you could probably keep it out.

    2. If it's existence is probative and it's not prejudicial, I'd say come on in.

      1. Exactly. It's just another piece of evidence for the fact finder to weigh. But the content of the document doesn't make it in. If the other side wants to argue that because it isn't authenticated it isn't reliable evidence then they need to rebut it in other ways, just like any other evidence. Go ahead and prove its a forgery if you want to. It should still be allowed in.

      1. Not self authenticating.

        I should note that we've got a public records exception in this case anyway, so since it appears to be a public record created subject to the usual duty of the officer who created the record and it generally appears trustworthy, it'll be allowed in regardless (also because this is a civil case... this standard doesn't fly in criminal matters).

  9. Well, I threw in for the job. This is the craziest turn of events I've ever experienced. If this goes through I'll have to make a three year commitment to them, but nothing is really going to happen until after October. Dr. Chop and I have talked this to death. She feels that I should go for the brass ring. I'm extremely thankful that my partner is so supportive.

    1. Good luck, and congrats on having an awesomely supportive partner. Of course, this will mean that you will owe her big-time.

    2. It sounds like you two have a really strong relationship. Just remember that you'll have to work extra hard to keep it that way. Best wishes to you.

    3. A toast to the good Dr. Chop. I'm fortunate enough to have a similarly supportive wife. I don't know what I did to deserve that.

    4. Nothing wrong with "owing" your wife...I wouldn't be anywhere close to my present happy status if not for my wife's efforts on my behalf. Good on you for taking a shot and I'll second that toast to the good doctor for her support.

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