Cup of Coffee

June 5, 2013: Time to Tow These Morons

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My parking spot, for some reason, attracts all kinds of folks who think they can park wherever they want in this place. Even if there are four open spots in a row, it's mine they take. It's almost funny enough not to be annoying.

77 thoughts on “June 5, 2013: Time to Tow These Morons”

      1. It normally would, but that's three more wins than the Twins have against them.

  2. Anyone know which Major-league baseball team has the best record over their last ten games?

    Spoiler SelectShow

    2. I'm surprised the extent of the White Sox' latest cratering. We are 2.5 games clear of them right now.

      1. I watched most of the White Sox-Mariners game last night. I was particularly struck that Robin Ventura seems really whiny and I am subsequently not convinced he's an upgrade over Ozzie. It was actually pretty odd in that he had three separate occasions where he was on the field complaining about a call, but he managed to not get tossed.

        1. And the White Sox don't appear to have really been unlucky, either. Their team wOBA of .286 is 29th in baseball. The Royals' .295 wOBA ranks 26th. The Twins' .310 wOBA ranks 17th. I suppose Konerko and Dunn could hit better, but I also wouldn't be surprised if they've hit a wall in their careers. Other than that, I don't see where Chicago should expect more offense. Chicago's pitching looks has been good, but not exceptional.

      1. They only ranked the 50 largest cities. Apparently, the rankings are given as a certain number of park benches (maximum of 5).

        Here are the 10 highest-ranking city park systems in the U.S.:

        1. Minneapolis 5.0 park benches
        2. New York 4.5 park benches
        3. Boston (tie) 4.0 park benches
        3. Sacramento (tie) 4.0 park benches
        3. San Francisco 4.0 park benches
        6. Washington, DC 4.0 park benches
        7. Portland 4.0 park benches
        8. Virginia Beach 4.0 park benches
        9. San Diego 4.0 park benches
        10. Seattle 4.0 park benches

        The 13 lowest-ranking city park systems are:

        38. Houston (tie) 2.0 park benches
        38. Miami (tie) 2.0 park benches
        38. Nashville (tie) 2.0 park benches
        38. Tucson (tie) 2.0 park benches
        42. Memphis 1.5 park benches
        43. Oklahoma City 1.5 park benches
        44. Jacksonville (tie) 1.5 park benches
        44. San Antonio (tie) 1.5 park benches
        46. Mesa, AZ 1.5 park benches
        47. Indianapolis (tie) 1.0 park benches
        47. Indianapolis (tie) 1.0 park benches
        47. Charlotte (tie) 1.0 park benches
        49. Louisville 1.0 park benches
        50. Fresno 1.0 park benches

            1. The Trust for Public Land analyzed the park systems of the 50 largest cities by population within the city boundary. Some large metropolitan areas were not included because the core city is too small to rank within the largest 50 cities. These cities include Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis.

    2. Its a shame only larger cities were involved. Janesville, WI is the city of parks!

  6. Browsing through some Twins stats, it strikes me that for as poor overall as the pitching is, the Twins only have -0.5 fWAR in below-replacement level contributions. For comparison, 23 pitchers in baseball individually have -0.5 fWAR or worse this season.

    The Twins seem to have done this by essentially assembling a starting rotation of entirely replacement-level pitchers.

    $4.5M, 11 starts -- Correia
    $4.0M, 11 starts -- Pelfrey
    $0.5M, 10 starts -- Diamond
    $0.5M, 10 starts -- Worley
    Min., <10 starts -- Hernandez, Deduno, Walters, Hendriks

    I think of those pitchers, Worley is really the big disappointment. I know some arguments have been put forth that he relied too much on strikeouts looking and because of that, his strikeout rate in Philly may have been deceiving, but I'm not convinced that's the whole story. I hope he can find a way to contribute by next year.

    But basically, the Twins paid for about 1-2 WAR of starting pitching and they've gotten about 1.2 fWAR from their rotation so far. They have $5.5M committed to the rotation in 2014 and no salary commitments to the rotation in 2015 and beyond. They need some contributions from pitching prospects in the minors at some point, but there should also be some money in the budget to add from the free agent market if the right opportunity comes along.

    1. good stuff, ubes.

      I suspect that part of the wailing and gnashing of teeth about the starting rotation before the season is related to what might be called the KG Phenomenon, that is, that the Twins are wasting the prime years of their resident superstar's career by surrounding him with mediocre teammates instead of reaching for the brass ring.

      It's not entirely fair to say that, since baseball and basketball are so very different in terms of roster sizes and interdependencies. But, yea. Joe Mauer is going to be a first-ballot HOFer who very likely will never win a pennant, let alone a World Series, in a Twins uniform. By the time Buxton/Sano/Rosario/Hicks/Arcia/Gibson are all primed up and productive, he will be in his mid-30s and likely on the downhill slope of his career. That hurts a bit.

      1. That could be, though if that's the case, people have a strange way of showing their support for Mauer. I will note that Mauer could well be a productive player for a while even on the downhill slope of his career.

        1. true. but remember, KG had an astronomical, CBA-altering deal. So there are some parallels.

      2. you know, now that I think about it, IS Mauer going to be a first-ballot HOFer?

        Yesterday(?) we had a brief discussion about a list of single-franchise players (Ernie Banks, George Brett, Cal Ripken, Robin Yount). I pointed out that all four of those HOFer guys had amassed 50+ rWAR by the end of their respective age-29 seasons, compared to ~30 for Kent Hrbek. Mauer's total through his age-29 season: 38.9.

        I don't know whether that is on the low end of first-ballot types or not, particularly for catchers. Johnny Bench had 59.6; Gary Carter, 48.0; Pudge Rodriguez, 47.3; Thurman Munson, 35.4; Yogi Berra, 32.7; Carlton Fisk 28.9.

        1. dude, the HOF voters don't know squat about rWAR! They count the rings, the awards; he's not a surly PED-using b@st@rd, and he's the highest BA catcher in MLB history! If he doesn't screw up, he's in, first ballot.

          1. he won't be up for at least 10 years, god willing and the creek don't rise. By that time, there may be a lot more Aaron Gleeman types doing the voting, and a lot fewer old-timers who focus on "new" statistics like batting average and MVPs.

        2. I don't like asking whether a player will be first ballot, because who knows what crazy narrative the writers will come up with to keep a guy on or off the first ballot.

          I like JAWS (here's the link for catchers) best of the Hall metrics, as it accounts for peak and longevity, both of which are important to the voters. Looking at that list:

          Ivan Rodriguez and Mike Piazza should be easy decisions to go into the HOF, which raises the bar somewhat to an average JAWS of 44.4. I think it's not unreasonable to suggest that new additions to the HOF should raise the bar--it helps avoid Jim Rice types getting in on comparisons to players who were marginal candidates in the first place. So Mauer should be looking to have a JAWS of 44.5 or better. For a conservative estimate, we can assume his 7-year peak value is locked in. If I understand the formula correctly, that means for each 1 WAR he adds to his career total, he'll add 0.5 to his JAWS. By that criteria, he needs to add 11.6 WAR to his career totals.

          Going by the numbers on his bb-ref page, he has a 7-year peak of 35.9 WAR and the HOF average at catcher is 33.7. With the '09 MVP award and the three batting titles also help prevent the arguments that he was a compiler. He's also on track for a 6th AS team.

          He's not a good quote, though, so if I had to put money on it, I'd say that he'll be first ballot if he plays well for another 5-6 years and at least makes some hay in the playoffs. If he plays well for another 5-6 years and doesn't win anything in the postseason, then I think he'll probably get in but not immediately.

        3. First ballot? Don't know. Santana looked like a lock for the Hall of Fame rather than the Very Good version. But, we can see where Mauer places in history.

          First, HoF catchers through their age-29 seasons. I had to do 1901-today as 1961 to today listed three. Reproduced below, but adding in obvious candidates Piazza and younger-Pudge.

          Rk Player WAR Age G PA
          1 Johnny Bench 59.5 19-29 1513 6309
          2 Gary Carter 48.0 20-29 1248 5025
          3 Ivan Rodriguez 47.3 19-29 1371 5622
          Joe Mauer 38.9 21-29 1065 4552
          4 Mike Piazza 37.3 23-29 840 3482
          5 Mickey Cochrane 34.3 22-29 1037 4318
          6 Yogi Berra 32.7 21-29 1053 4330
          7 Bill Dickey 29.4 21-29 953 3802
          8 Carlton Fisk 28.8 21-29 699 2825
          9 Roger Bresnahan 27.9 22-29 902 3609
          10 Ray Schalk 26.2 19-29 1352 4894
          11 Gabby Hartnett 21.6 21-29 851 3098
          12 Ernie Lombardi 18.1 23-29 791 2612
          13 Roy Campanella 16.9 26-29 482 1883
          14 Rick Ferrell 15.3 23-29 813 3137

          Mauer, so far, ranks nicely.

          1. here are the first-ballot HOFers. Looks like Johnny Bench is the only catcher on the list.

            Player Year PCT of Vote
            Rickey Henderson 2009 94.8
            Cal Ripken 2007 98.5
            Tony Gwynn 2007 97.6
            Wade Boggs 2005 91.9
            Paul Molitor 2004 85.2
            Dennis Eckersley 2004 83.2
            Eddie Murray 2003 85.3
            Ozzie Smith 2002 91.7
            Dave Winfield 2001 84.5
            Kirby Puckett 2001 82.1
            Nolan Ryan 1999 98.8
            George Brett 1999 98.2
            Robin Yount 1999 77.5
            Mike Schmidt 1995 96.5
            Steve Carlton 1994 95.6
            Reggie Jackson 1993 93.6
            Tom Seaver 1992 98.8
            Rod Carew 1991 90.5
            Jim Palmer 1990 92.6
            Joe Morgan 1990 81.8
            Carl Yastrzemski 1989 94.6
            Johnny Bench 1989 96.4
            Willie Stargell 1988 82.4
            Willie McCovey 1986 81.4
            Lou Brock 1985 79.8
            Brooks Robinson 1983 92
            Hank Aaron 1982 97.8
            Frank Robinson 1982 89.2
            Bob Gibson 1981 84
            Al Kaline 1980 88.3
            Willie Mays 1979 94.7
            Ernie Banks 1977 83.8
            Mickey Mantle 1974 88.2
            Warren Spahn 1973 83.2
            Sandy Koufax 1972 86.9
            Stan Musial 1969 93.2
            Ted Williams 1966 93.4
            Jackie Robinson 1962 77.5
            Bob Feller 1962 93.8
            Ty Cobb 1936 98.2
            Babe Ruth 1936 95.1
            Honus Wagner 1936 95.1
            Christy Mathewson 1936 90.7
            Walter Johnson 1936 83.6

        4. Those three batting titles make Mauer unique in the history of baseball. The longer he stays at catcher, the better. He may not be a great quote, but he's well known as a class act. As long as he plays his entire career with the Twins, I think he'll be looked at much in the same way as Cal Ripken.

          1. Oh, I think he is well on his way to a HOF career. My question was whether he was on a pantheon-ic path. I think the answer is "no," but that he's not that far away from it, if he stays healthy.

  7. Drugs and stuff. Skipping to the punchline:

    And Baseball will have nothing other than an empty P.R. victory to show for itself.

    Isn't that sort of the whole point? For a few reasons (some I know and understand, some that I don't), baseball is under higher public scrutiny than other sports leagues when it comes to players using PEDs. The scrutiny is not what I consider to be serious scrutiny though--it's essentially tabloid scrutiny. There's been some low-hanging fruit that makes good headlines. If it was serious scrutiny, I think there would be more questions asked about athletes in other pro sports. It's not as though baseball players are markedly stronger than athletes in other sports, and athletes in other sports face the same types of risk/reward decisions to make.

    As such, I think baseball is really just fighting a PR war. They're not really going to stop PEDs any more than the government was able to stop alcohol consumption during prohibition. But since they are on center stage, they need to make a good show of it.

    1. my two-bit interpretation: baseball players typically don't look all that different from us civilians. Some are chunky, short, slow, whatever. And, as Crash Davis famously soliloquized,

      Know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is? It's 25 hits. 25 hits in 500 at bats is 50 points, okay? There's 6 months in a season, that's about 25 weeks. That means if you get just one extra flare a week - just one - a gorp... you get a groundball, you get a groundball with eyes... you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week... and you're in Yankee Stadium.

      So many more of us can identify with them than can identify with the thyroid cases in the NBA or the monsters in the NFL. Maybe that drives the differing attitudes about PED usage.

      1. I'm sure that's a factor, but I think there are other factors. I don't know if it was the '94-'95 strike or what, but I wouldn't be surprised if somehow baseball mismanaged its relationship with reporters at some point. It just seems that the baseball reporters are more willing to turn on the sport than other reporters. Maybe it's just that baseball is in this sort of sweet spot for breaking scandals. The NBA and NHL, with more recent labor issues, seem weaker so maybe you worry about breaking them with further big scandals. On the other hand, the NFL is everyone's cash cow, so you don't want to mess with that.

        There doesn't always seem to be a great deal of team unity in baseball. I mean, in the NFL you had players given incentives to injure other players and it doesn't just blow over, but there is obvious resentment from players that information from the inner circle was made public.

        There's the record book issue, too, where Barry Bonds is villainized for breaking Hank Aaron's career HR record, and there are no real parallels to a career HR record in other sports.

      1. Also, "I have seen this word in print but have no idea how to pronounce it". I've made up plenty of pronunciations for words that I had never heard anyone say, and I still find some of the "real" pronunciation jarring when someone uses it.

      2. I enjoyed the sunshower one because I grew up in the small part of Minnesota that had that term, but moved to Wisconsin where they don't. I could be some sort of language trailblazer if I wanted.

        1. I'm ambivalent about "sunshower" (sure, there's sun, and there's a shower- good enough), but if anyone says "snowshower" anywhere near me, a blood vessel in one of my eyes will explode.

    2. I call it ‘soda’, and I have no idea why.

      Because you prefer to sound like a grown-up?

      4. Passing through central Kansas years ago, we hit a one-horse town and stopped for gas at a station that sold no drinks and had no vending machine. When we asked the attendant where we could get a cold drink he said, "You can get you a sody-pop from the machine outside the picture show just down the street."

    3. You're younger and were exposed to some people from the South/East/West and the scales fell from your eyes in your formative years that "Pop" is a silly thing to call a soda. Or was that just me?
      I also picked up y'all that same year.

      Heh. Montana, the ’Daks, and western ’Sotans "Have no Word for" traffic circle/roundabout/car loop.

      Also, more evidence that ’Sconnies are linguistically aberrant:
      Cran-raspberry juice might be made with Crayons.
      Pea-kahn Pie has nothing to do with legumes or the Timberwolves.
      They've ben* drinking from bubblers.

      *This is me too.

        1. I remember when I learned that as well. I was called a cracker not much later for refusing to give up my buggy (I was employed by the company).

    4. I'm a little surprised by the coleslaw one. I've never heard anyone near me just use "slaw".

      Also, what kind of weirdo can only pronounce mayonnaise with 2 syllables?

      Finally, I will accept the term "bubbler" for a water cooler, but under no circumstances does it make sense for a water fountain.

      1. Also, what kind of weirdo can only pronounce mayonnaise with 2 syllables?

        Raises hand

        Though I usually just call it "mayo".

        1. I grew up calling it "Miracle Whip."

          but most people I knew called the real thing "man-aize" or "man-naize"

            1. Oh, I am very aware of that basic fact. But my mom never bought mayo. I'd only had it a handful of times by the time I got to college. (and we called Miracle Whip "man-naize" in our house, with me largely ignorant of the difference)

            1. The question here is: why were you thinking about mayonnaise so much in the car?

      2. Not sure where I'd fall. I give it a little semi-syllable (a tripthong?).
        Somewhere between Mayn-aise and Mayen-aise. So, May'n-aise.
        I think the second syllable goes to the same place as the "u" in the name "Daisuke."

        I do the same with with the surname Mayer/Maier. May'r. But mostly that fell out of mocking John Mayer and now I can't stop.

    5. I greatly prefer soda to pop, but will take pop over 'coke' any day of the week.

      1. One of the most annoying things about visiting in-laws in Georgia- "Y'all wanna coke?"

    6. I moved from Indiana, which is much more southern than it's geographic position would belie, to Iowa weeks after my 12th birthday. Throw in a grandma from Kentucky, a grandma who is descendant from Pennsylvania Dutch, and graduate school abroad, and I have a very eclectic and flexible vocabulary/accent.

      1. I'm pretty similar. Parents from Oklahoma, grew up in Ohio, Indiana, Colorado and Minnesota, plus a few years in Iowa after college. I tend to use different regional forms based on who I'm talking to. When in Rome, you know.

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