71 thoughts on “December 17, 2013: Blood Pumping Freely”

  1. The Boy is back for the remainder of break. A few days here, then we head to Santa Fe for a week.

    1. sorry. Ignore the coda if you wish. I thought the video was funny. Didn't mean to be quite so forbidden zoney.

      1. You know, this may be one of those "forbidden zone" type comments that - ah - experiences bipartisan support among the citizens.

    1. wow. 2.8 for Mauer, 2.6 and 2.3, respectively, for guys who haven't played above AA or A+, respectively? That seems...crazy.

      I'm hoping that the Mauer prediction is a standard error or two too low.

      1. Well, first of all, they are predicting Mauer to have 581 PAs. He's surpassed 600 four times in his career when he was a catcher and the whole purpose of him switching to first base was for him to be out there more than when he was a catcher. They also show a decline in power and average despite him no longer having the wear and tear of catching. Even with him on the wrong side of 30, I would expect to see a bump up or at least maintain not decline. If Buxton gets 500 PAs, I wouldn't be surprised to see 2.3 WAR just based on his defense alone, which would mean just a replacement level bat.

      2. THEM SPREADSHEETS DON'T KNOW JOE.

        The 2.8 makes sense if you translate his 2013 season to first base and apply some regression. Catcher is +12.5 runs/162 games and first base is -12.5 runs. A 25 run drop pro-rated to 73 games subtracts 11 runs. Then the regression drops his wOBA from .383 to .340. Not sure how to convert that to runs, but that should be close to the remaining 11* runs to get to 2.8 zWAR.

        * FanGraphs had him at 48 runs last year for 5.2 wins. Assuming zWAR is on the same scale (might not be since I don't know if he's scaled the total forecasted WAR or not to match 2013), then the 2.8 WAR is 26 runs.

    2. No love for Pinto's 2.7 WAR forecast?

      I think it's clear the team won't be actually good, but it seems as though big steps forward aren't out of the question and depending on how the pitching situation shakes out, I could see them vying for .500. The Twins only had 3 position players with 1+ fWAR last year.

      1. I thought about mentioning him. The focus was more on Mauer and the optimistic projections for Sano and Buxton.

        1. I've been really caught off guard by the stat-love for Pinto (Steamer and Zips.) I feel like he doesn't get mentioned much with Buxton and Sano (rightly) getting a lot of attention. He has steadily progressed through the minors since he was 19 and has put together a .275/.351/.439 line. That's a pretty good power for his age and position, along with the ability to draw walks. For comparison, Mauer had a sub-.100 ISO in the minors.

        2. Actually, there's a good Player A/Player B game here, though I've already spoiled the Player A stat line:

          .275/.351/.439 -- Player A, career minor league stats as catcher
          .283/.331/.428 -- Player B, career minor league stats as catcher

          Actual Spoiler SelectShow
          1. **insert "trade him for a reliever" joke**

            I don't have the energy to be ironic today.

            In all seriousness, I was a fan of Pinto's over the last month or so. Obviously, a person needs to take hot Septembers with a grain of salt (Parmelee says 'hi'), but I liked the way he approached at bats.

            Also, he hit a home run late in the game that Linds and I went to, and we were able to make fun of everyone who left early because of it, so he's on my "good" list.

                1. I think people get too caught up in small age differences like that. It's just two years, and Pinto hasn't lingered at any level along his progression. It'd be different if Pinto had spent the last three seasons at AAA.

              1. I don't think there was any doubt Ramos would be able to stay at catcher. If the same were true about Pinto, he probably would have similar buzz, although it probably would still be muted because of Buxton and Sano and even Meyer to a certain extent.

      2. If Pinto manages 2.7 WAR next season, that's half of what Ramos has put up with the Nationals since the trade. (Of course, Ramos has dealt with injuries.)

  2. Does anyone know who "We're all losers" is in the fantasy football B-League? I want to know who I'm going to beat in the championship this week.

      1. No way. The players that I have no control of are going to do way better than the players that you have not control of. Domination.

    1. Houston and Golden State are probably as close as the NBA comes to running the Grinnell System.

      I would love to see a bottom-dwelling franchise try the System for a year or two, to see whether it could function in the NBA. Not bottom dwellers, but can you imagine Steph Curry and Klay Thompson each averaging ~20 3pt attempts/game? That would be cool.

      1. looking at the league data, the team leaders in pace are Philly(!!!) at 99.5 possessions per 48, followed by Minnesota (97.7), OKC (96.8), LAL (96.8), Houston (96.6) and GSW (96.5).

        The Grinnell System's goal is 100 shot attempts per 40 minutes, which translates to 120 shots per 48. That is one shot every 24 seconds of game time. Multiplied by two to account for the other team, that's a shot every 12 seconds each possession, a very doable number. Philly is averaging only (only!) a shot every 32.4 seconds of game time.

        1. Pace includes turnovers, too, of course. You may remember a few years back that the Wolves played at a pretty fast pace, but it was heavily influenced by (a) their inability to control the ball and (b) their inability to defend. To get a shot every 12 seconds is pretty impressive.

          1. Good point.

            So far this year, the Wolves are second in pace, but have the 9th fewest turnovers. Philly, Houston, and GSW are 1, 2, and 3, respectively, in most turnovers. Minnesota also is second in the league in opponent turnovers and in offensive rebounds, and third in FTA.

            So why are the Wolves so middling in record?

            1. They have the worst FG% allowed in the league
            2. They have given up the 8th most threes in the league (at the 7th highest percentage made)
            3. They are 27th in FG% (26th in 2pt percentage, 21st in 3pt percentage)

            The defensive statistics are consistent with the fact that they have committed the second fewest PFs in the league. Now, San Antonio has committed the fewest PFs, so defense is not incompatible with avoiding fouls. But in the Wolves case, I think it is pretty indicative. They don't protect the rim very well and don't close all that well on 3pt shooters. On the offensive end, they don't shoot well and rely heavily on the three, where they don't shoot well.

    2. A Grantland analysis of the last three seasons showed basically no correlation between the number of 3-pointers a team attempts and its turnover rate

      I would think if anything this would have an inverse relationship. Every time you're jacking up a 3, you aren't turning the ball over, so I would think it would decrease the number of turnovers. I would be more concerned about FG percentage and points per possession.

      1. So, you are suggesting that going into the lane increases turnovers compared to taking jump shots? I suppose that makes some sense.

        I would think if anything that both turnover rate and 3pt attempts would be correlated with pace, but that the relationship between turnovers and 3pt attempts would be weak.

  3. I noted that CH (? I think it was CH) referenced this today on the BookFace.

    If we estimate that during their active periods, writers are producing somewhere between 0.1 and 1 word per minute, then one dedicated reader might be able to keep up with a population of about 500 or 1,000 active writers. The answer to Gregory's question—the date at which there were too many English books to read in a lifetime—happened sometime before the population of active English writers reached a few hundred. At that point, catching up became impossible.

    1. Yup, 'twas me.

      I have a real problem with disengaging with some types of information (my RSS reader, in particular). My wife says I can't possibly read everything that is significant, and I know she's right, but knowing it doesn't help. Reading that What If? helps, a bit; I know I won't get to every significant book I might like to read, so I'd best just enjoy the ones I get to and keep plugging away at (and adding to) the to-read list on Goodreads.

        1. Yeah, yeah, yeah . . . I guess there is an expiration date on a human life.

          Here's hoping that heaven has a good library! (I mean, it's heaven. How can it not?)

  4. Just measured the download speed of the wireless in our office at 0.83 Mb. I have a temporary employee working for me and I wanted to download some software on her computer. She's not hardwired in. A scanner driver is gonna take 25 minutes. Why am I doing this?

    'Spoiler' SelectShow
    1. Our campus IT guys updated the Windows machine in my office over the summer. I now have to re-install both network printers every time the computer restarts. I came pretty close to pushing it out the third floor window, but the semester ended in time.

      1. I used to sit on (read: "be") the departmental infrastructure committee at my last Big State University posting, which meant that I dealt regularly with our IT staff person. She was a refugee from a corporate IT job (where, I think, she'd probably been fired for incompetence, thus returning to the university bureaucracy because she had some sort of return rights), and knew just enough to be extremely dangerous. Her thing was to wipe new PCs fresh from their boxes and then attempt to reinstall everything. I had to work extremely hard to stop her from doing that, because it took her months to reinstall a new machine and she still never got it right.

        That and she wanted to impose security on faculty machines so that we could not install/uninstall software on our own. Most of the faculty who were so inclined knew a lot more about hardware and software than she did. So, again, I had to work hard to stop her from doing that. Good times.

        1. Sounds like the civilian contractors awarded administration of the Navy & Marine Corps' entire intranet. I imagine contractors and government bureaucracies draw from the same IT pool.

    1. one non-ironic line that particularly struck me:

      an extraordinarily team-friendly eight-year, $110 million extension

      (emphasis added)

      1. And one particular section that struck me:

        Jeter will return for one more year at shortstop, and aside from turning 40, missing almost all of last season with an ankle injury, and playing poor defense for the last decade, this should go great. (On days when Johnson plays second base, he and Jeter will form one of the worst defensive middle infields you'll ever see on a putative contender.)

      1. Rany writes well. I'm thankful he doesn't write as much as, say, Pos. Point to bS/CH/Pepper thoughts on being able to read everything ever written.
        xkcd doesn't even contemplate translations from other languages!

  5. I bought a two-stage snowblower last year. I siphoned out the gas from last season before running it after the first snow this year, added in some fresh gas, and a little octane boost just to be safe. Snowblower ran fine for clearing the first snow. Yesterday and today, however, it ran for about 90 seconds before shutting off. Called the small engine shop, the guy says partially clogged carburetor jets (basically what I feared). I imagine the old gas is part of the problem; however, this summer I started and drove a carburetted car on three year old gas. I know the size of the jets is pretty different between the two engines. I'm not at all happy about paying for a carburetor rebuild right now, but considering they use construction equipment to plow our street, I'll be wanting that two stage when the big snows come.

    1. I always drain the gas from the lawnmower and snow blower and then run them dry at the end of the season. If you don't do that, at least put some gas stabilizer in the tank when you store your implements. Once gas gets gummed up, you can't really fix it with additives.

      1. Since it's being discussed,

        Dear Twayn,
        This is my first year with a rider mower. A month or so ago, after the last mulching of leaves, I just poured some SeaFoam in the tank (about twice as much as I eyeballed that I'd need, to be safe). Felt I should shake it or stir it or something, then run it to get the stabilizer in the fuel lines as well. But it soon got too cold and I haven't done anything else yet.

        Signed,
        Anonymous Mower Rookie

      2. Yeah, I knew it needed to happen, but I didn't get around to it with the other issues here last spring. I'm ticked at myself for that. I had hoped siphoning and not running it through would be enough. I guess not.

        (Still - three year old gas in a 53 year old car. No problem!)

        1. Yeah, there was a about a 16 month period that the truck just sat in the garage as the wife had a company vehicle and the truck needed repair. I didn't treat the gas at all, and when I did get around to fixing the truck, it started right up and ran like a champ on the old gas. I think you were right that small engines seem more susceptible to the problem.

  6. I bitched about working with some morons (a blind-leading-the-blind situation) yesterday. In fairness to the people here, I've dealt with two people this morning totally on top of their shit and it's been very easy going finishing up the tasks they've got me doing. Night & day.

  7. Hey, another Sunderland win! They've got 4 wins in the League Cup and 2 in actual league play.

    Record against the current top 10 in the EPL table in all competitions - 4 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses
    Record against the current bottom 10 in the EPL table in all competitions - 0 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses

  8. Why this is my favorite time of the year? Because my mom always makes way to many Christmas treats and sends the extras over to me. So much for the progress I made on losing weight hahaha.

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