81 thoughts on “January 3, 2013: The Calm”

  1. Was there any mention of Gleeman's blog post yesterday? I am happy that he has come out of his shell. I know others don't want to hear so much of his escapades but I ain't got the twitters and don't listen to podcasts so it hasn't really affected me.

    1. I thought it was really well written and thoughtful. I'm happy for Gleeman, really. I just wish he realized that the vast majority of his twitter followers don't care to read tweet after tweet about his going out. Everyone likes to read about someone's drunken revelry everyso often. But when it becomes the sole mission of the twitter feed it gets tiresome.

      1. I agree its all well and good that he started enjoying his life more, and all that, but based on his Twitter conversations with CH he probably should have stayed in his shell a little longer until his skin thickened.

      2. Time for a pro and personal Twitter bifurcation.
        Official Aaron Gleeman: for articles (including personal articles like yesterday's) and news.

        I don't think any of us have any problems with the guy, but would like to get his signal separate from his noise.
        Note that this is a common Twitter problem, but Gleeman gets guff here because he's a great baseball writer in the local market that I think a lot of us would like a simpler way to follow.
        Gleeman does seems to repeat the Twitter problem in his podcast/radio show, but I really won't listen either way.

    2. I was wondering if someone would bring it up.
      I was pretty impressed by that post. He did a nice job of laying out how he changed and why. It still doesn't make for good podcast listening, but I'm a more sympathetic and understanding towards him after reading it.

    3. A lot of talk about Aaron lately has centered around his personal life, which I suppose makes sense since it is the offseason, but I find it more relevant that I can't remember the last time he said something interesting about the Twins on his blog. Take the summary paragraph from his last Twins post:

      He's a better option than Eric Fryer or Chris Herrmann, although the risk with Suzuki is that it's easy to envision Ron Gardenhire falling in love with his veteran-ness. As spring competition and eventually a backup and mentor for Pinto he's a perfectly reasonable, inexpensive fit, but if Suzuki finds his way into the lineup 4-5 times per week or perhaps even convinces the Twins to send Pinto back to the minors the signing will look a whole lot different.

      I think this pretty well summarizes why I find reading his analysis really tiresome. The Twins make a perfectly reasonable move to sign Kurt Suzuki on a small contract, but... There's always a but. Everything is always explicitly qualified with "well, the Twins could really fuck this up and this is how this move could really get fucked up."

      In his Pelfrey analysis, he goes on and on about how he's "really struggling to comprehend" the signing. Now, fWAR is not the be-all, end-all of pitching statistics, but Pelfrey's fWAR the last three years has been 2.0, 0.6, and 0.6. A 5/4/3 weighting of those seasons gives a projection of 1.2 fWAR for next year. Deducting a half-win from that for the following season gives 0.7 fWAR for 2015. That's a 1.9 fWAR projection for $11M--which would make him overpaid by maybe $1-2M. His career FIP (4.17) is nearly identical to Kevin Slowey's career FIP (4.18). That's not saying I'm totally crazy about Pelfrey--I don't like his slow pace and I'm not crazy about his walk rate--but it's not like the Twins had a three-martini lunch and decided to make it rain on Pelfrey for no particular reason.

      Then in his Kubel analysis (same post), he mentions practically in passing that the price is right for Kubel and then fixates on having a logjam at DH and corner OF. Why can't a minor league contract just be a minor league contract? Kubel is insurance for potential injuries and could have even been signed with the main intent of giving Rochester a boost to their lineup.

      That's not comprehensive, but I feel that it's representative. Maybe not all of his analysis boils down to "well, Gardy could definitely find a way to screw this up," but enough of it comes down to that even when I read his blog, I find myself tuning him out.

      1. Yep. It's hard to imagine how he enjoys the Twins because even in years they've done well he spends more time focusing on the "yeah buts."

        I loved his top 40 countdown which has now stopped three times, mostly because it's all positive.

        1. When I chatted with him at SABR he was completely different from the negativity he always seems to have in his blog. But that negative attitude is why I stopped reading him.

          1. I think he is a good guy. He is just going through a phase that many people go through. He is just doing it at a later age and in a more public way than most of us.

      2. And the word "mentor" slipped into his Suzuki discussion as well; we all know where we think he should fall regarding mentoring while Steiny and Joe are still in the room.

      3. I've had enough Gleeman fatigue after reading his blog that I just stopped. First it was setting NewsBlur to filter his Friday posts out of my RSS stream, but the fatigue has gotten to where he's a skim at best for me. There's been a great deal of malaise in his writing about the Twins, and I think you've pointed out the form it's taken quite well, ubes.

      4. but Pelfrey's fWAR the last three years has been 2.0, 0.6, and 0.6. A 5/4/3 weighting of those seasons gives a projection of 1.2 fWAR for next year.

        Shouldn't that be a 3-4-5 weighting? Or, more properly, a 0.25, 0.333, 0.4167 weighting for a 0.95 fWAR projection? More recent results should weigh more than more remote ones. So obviously I'm not understanding something in how you phrase the weights. [edit: ahh, I see that you stated them counting backwards rather than forwards]

        [also edit: fwiw, rWAR is much less sanguine (0.4, 0.8, and -0.3 last season). That's a huge difference of opinion.]

          1. yea. just Kluwed in on that.

            his rWAR for last year was negative. Weird difference of opinion.

            1. From fangraphs:

              Pitcher Value. fWAR uses FIP to calculate WAR for pitchers — making it defense independent – while rWAR takes a pitcher’s actual Runs Allowed and adjusts that to account for their opponents, team defense, park, and role.

              For more on why we believe FIP is the best metric to use when calculating WAR, see the Library page on Pitcher WAR values.

              I'm not terribly convinced that rWAR does a good job of adjusting for the things it claims to adjust for. At the same time, FIP is going to overestimate a pitcher who we have reason to believe is no longer good at holding opponents to a reasonable BABIP (injured pitchers, for instance.)

              Looking at Pelfrey, he had a .337 BABIP allowed last year and he has a career .312 BABIP allowed. I'm sure part of his .337 BABIP allowed was due to coming back from TJ surgery, and some of it was due to defense. In his two best seasons he was down around a .300 BABIP against. But at any rate, I suspect that the BABIP accounts for a big part of the massive difference between the two WAR values. For instance, in 2008, Pelfrey had a .302 BABIP against, and a 2.7 fWAR and 3.2 rWAR.

        1. 2.0 fWAR was last year. Actually, on second inspection it was 2.1. For a starter, 150 IP at 3.99 FIP is not shabby. Garza had a 3.88 FIP over 155.1 IP for a 2.2 fWAR. Pelfrey was 65th in fWAR for starting pitchers last year. Now, I don't think Pelfrey is as good as Garza, and I can see concern for Pelfrey's home run rate (though the Twins don't exactly play in a bandbox), but the move is not completely confusing.

    4. SBG said a while back that, whatever the annoyance longtime Gleeman readers might have with his personality developments or the tenor of some of the discussions he has with Bonnes on their podcast, it's pretty clear that Bonnes really invested some effort into getting Gleeman to give up his reclusive behavior. Sounded pretty true to me at the time (and I thought maybe Gleeman might have acknowledged Bonnes' role a bit more in his post).

      I'm genuinely glad for Gleeman's new happiness; I just wish he'd share it more appropriately. The next step the guy needs to take in his social development is figuring out filters. I think AMR's suggestion of a bifurcated Twitter account is a good idea, but I'm thinking in general, it's probably time for Gleeman to move on from some of the staples of his repertoire.

      I don't know him personally, but Gleeman strikes me as someone who didn't have many mature male role models when he was growing up. I'm not sure that tailoring his public persona along the Bonnes/Hageman man-child lines is a good career choice if he wants to take the next step (because he has a lot to offer as a national baseball writer), but I don't think that's something Gleeman cares to be told by listeners & readers.

      1. ...but I don't think that's something Gleeman cares to be told by listeners & readers.

        Heh, well stated, considering.

    1. Woo, number 11. (Although they probably should have put it in the same spot as eau Claire since there's only about twenty miles between the two.)

      1. But then they would have a three-way tie for fifth. There's a free spot at 9 though. The same could be said for Mankato v Gustavus. 20 miles would be an overestimation of their distance.

        I find it hard to believe there are no schools from North Dakota on the list. I didn't know it was so much warmer on the other side of the Red River.

          1. UA Fairbanks would seem to have an even greater complaint.

            My visit to NDSU was on the coldest December day I can remember. When I got back to EAR (then EAP)'s house in Glenwood, we did that cup of water straight to steam trick outside.
            Somehow Concordia and Moorhead that morning didn't seem as bad. I think it was because there were trees along the river, being the first windbreak since the continental divide, where those winds had originated just hours earlier.

            Whatever inklings I had of looking at Grand Forks was quashed that day as well. "Oh, like Fargo, but hours to the north?"
            Minot, where my youngest aunt (AMF, then another AMR) graduated, was never considered.

          2. Fargo/Moorhead has more windchill than Grand Forks. Third in the nation in average wind speed behind Great Falls, MO and Oklahoma City.

            I would have questioned this if Concordia had been anywhere but #2, since only two blocks separate it from Moorhead State.

            1. Average high/low in January:

              Grand Forks: 16/-1
              Fargo: 18/0
              St. Cloud: 21/2
              Minneapolis: 24/7
              Northfield: 23/4
              Eau Claire: 23/5
              Burlington, VT: 27/10
              Minot: 21/3

              It's cold in all these spots, but man is GF cold. You'd think all the sucking there would warm it up a little, but no.

              1. Also, when I was a kid, the local news would always show the temperature in Winnipeg (and Minneapolis, for that matter, now neither is shown). Winnipeg in January: 10/-9. I remember thinking that at least we weren't there.

                1. I think the cold in Duluth is worse, since the air is no where near as dry.

                  International Falls was the cold standard when I was growing up, with Hibbing getting a mention at times.

                  1. Speaking of dry, it was 4% humidity in the hospital yesterday. I'm not sure I've ever seen it so dry in a building I was in. I had to put chapstick on every thirty minutes for the whole day.

    2. I'm amused that the College of Saint Benedict is #3, but that St. John's University isn't mentioned, despite being 3 miles away (and apparently originally pictured for CSB).

      1. I'm starting to think this list was a last-minute-I-have-no-other-ideas-and-no-editor type of thing.

  2. So, a fire alarm just went off at work. Thankfully, we were only out of the building for 30 minutes or so and my car was close, but man, what a way to start the day.

      1. The company I work for has labs in the first floor, so it's much more likely that someone went for coffee with something on the burner...

  3. So I bought some Metrodome seats...

    Talk about a disorganized process. I got a call last night telling me that I could either pick them up today or Monday. I hadn't arranged for a truck to get them out of there yet (since, you know, no one had called and told me what my options were), so I said Monday thinking it would give me the most time to get a plan organized. Of course, I have a training on Monday I probably shouldn't miss (and it's going to be ridiculously cold), so I called around and found a truck to use today. I called them back at 8:00 this morning (the first option they gave me was 8 today, so I thought someone would be around). I got no answer until just now and was told that today is no longer an option. What a pain...

    1. "He didn't add an extraneous 'y' to my name or tell me to go battle my tail off, so I knew there was some tension there."

      Awesome.

  4. Dayton calls off school statewide Monday because of cold.

    Back when I was in school they only canceled going outside during lunch on the cold days. Kids these days.

    Except when it was really cold SelectShow
    1. I'm okay with keeping the kids home when it's double digits below zero for a high. Having said that, it's tough on folks who don't have regular daycare options.

      1. Right. I ran to the street and back without my coat. It was cold, but we were right under the bluffs and not windy.

    2. This morning at the gym some guys were giving me a hard time because I came to the gym in shorts and a t-shirt and it was about 40 degrees in there. My response was, "well, it could be 60 degrees colder." I'm a lot softer than when I was back in Minnesota, though I swear the marine air feels colder than the thermometer claims.

      1. I am so soft now, I can't imagine moving back to the Midwest or even to the Northwest (my wife's family lives near Everett and we went to college in Idaho). For the first couple years in SoCal, I was in short sleeves and shorts when I had the choice (outside work, etc.). Now, I never wear shorts from late fall to early spring and if the high doesn't get into the 70s, I am usually wearing a sweatshirt or sweater. I think it has a lot to do with adjusting to the temp we keep the house at. We keep it between 69 and 76 degrees to avoid huge electric bills during the summer. My dad gets hot in our house when he visits from Minnesota.

        1. Heh.

          I can't imagine moving back to the Midwest either. I really, really hate Midwestern/Southern/East Coast humidity.

          We keep our house at about 80-81 in the summer, 60-63 in the winter, Because Cheap.

          1. 'Respect' SelectShow
              1. 'GEARS TURNING' SelectShow
                    1. A bargain at twice the price SelectShow
        2. When I got back from my first deployment to the Persian Gulf, it was a gorgeous November day in Newport News, VA, probably mid-60's. I was so cold, I had to put on 3 layers and a jacket for the drive home. We were in the northern Gulf off the coast of Kuwait and the best the window AC's in our shipping-container huts could do was maybe low-90's...I recall 122 degrees in the shade and like 140+ heat index.

          1. Yup. Went home on post-deployment leave in October. Autumn in Minnesota brought severe climate whiplash after summer in Iraq and a couple weeks in southern California before the leave block started. It was in the mid-50s when I showed up at my parents' house. Normal temps in Iraq would have been around 100 degrees even in September.

      2. The marine air IS colder. I was in SF once when it was in the 40's, and it was bone chilling. The crap about "it's a dry heat" also works conversely for cold.

    3. I was going to mention that Dayton's going for this generation how Arne got us for our generation. No matter what he would have done, Arne would have always been a bit of a hero in my cohort because "He gave us the day off school."
      For a guy that won't be looking for the votes of most of these kids ever (I assume he won't ever run for anything outside of the Governor's mansion again, just like Arne), that's just a bunch of goodwill from the next generation.

    4. For some reason, I remember the Osseo School District policy (and probably the state's) being that wind chill had to be a wind chill of 60 below for school to close and then of course we had a morning of 60 below and school was not closed probably because it wasn't quite that cold by the time school started.

      1. I may have mentioned once or twice the -60 F/-100 windchill recruiting weekend at the Alma Mater in 1982. Bought the beer warm, walked the six blocks back to the dorms and the beer was ready to drink (it was crappy beer, so needed to be frosty cold).

        [edit: ok, maybe it was only -30/-70]

  5. I think my motto for 2014 is going to be "Just own it." Make a mistake? Just own it. Live in a place that is miserably cold? Just own it. Still not done with the painting project? Just own it. Picked a cliche as your motto for the year? Just own it.

  6. 14 hours in the car yesterday from Des Moines to Austin. I guess I live in Texas now.

  7. Dissertaining!

    Fictional Cubs team:
    A short story collection.
    Those don’t make a dime.

    Shannon Bartlett Kizer

    Chapman University, California

    I wrote a collection of ten linked short stories called Just a Bit Outside. Each story is from the perspective of a starting player on a fictional Chicago Cubs team (nine total). The tenth story is about the final game of the season — to advance to the playoffs — with a section from each player’s perspective covering one inning of the game.
    Writers today can’t make anything off short stories, so this was basically a two-year, 150-page exercise in futility. Ironically, a century ago, F. Scott Fitzgerald made his money off publishing short stories in magazines specifically so he could write novels in his free time, since novels paid next-to-nothing — and look where that got him.

  8. Can anyone recommend an online whiteboard service? RealtimeBoard, the service I've been using for a project has crapped out and lost data twice, and it's time for me to move on.

    1. As great as that situation is, I kind of wish they would have made him take the penalty shot.

    1. Too bad the Wolves aren't affiliated with Sioux Falls any more. I'd have liked to gone and watched him get some actual minutes.

    2. a move that should have been done before Thanksgiving.
      but that must mean either Chase or Turiaf is close to returning.

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