Well, the past couple days have been rough. Thankfully, I can take solace in the Vikings, Timberwolves, and Wild. They've never let us down, right?
47 thoughts on “October 9, 2019: Moving On”
For something that won't let you down: 1991 Rewind starts today!
And the Rugby World Cup is in full swing.
Salt River scored a run in the tenth to defeat Glendale 11-10. The Rafters are 11-5 and are in first place by three games.
Royce Lewis was 2-for-4 with a double, two walks, two runs, and two RBIs. He is batting .375/.426/688 in 48 at-bats.
Luke Raley was 1-for-3 with a double, a walk, and two RBIs. He is batting .186/.260/.302 in 43 at-bats.
Moises Gomez pitched an inning, giving up one run on two hits and striking out one. His ERA is 5.14 with 11 strikeouts in 7 innings.
Royce Lewis and Zach Neff will represent the Twins in the Fall Stars Game Saturday.
Initial thoughts on the rotation. Berrios obviously. I would sign Odorizzi or a comparable free agent for 2-3 years as a #3 pitcher. Would love to sign a bigger name for 3-4 years as the #1 or #2. For slots 4 and 5: This year, one will be filled with either Smeltzer or Dobnak. The other slot should be filled with a one year free agent as one of Balazovic or Graterol will be fully ready by 2021.
So, in my opinion, we are looking for a top of the rotation starter for 3-4 years and a second 1 year solid starter who can be a #4 starter. I am assuming we sign Odorizzi to a 2 to 3 year commitment. If he leaves us, we find someone comparable.
Trade Eddie. It's time for the Lewis/Kirilloff Era to start.
I was with you until I saw that Souhan is proposing it. I can't agree with him!
Take solace that he's jumping onto your bandwagon. You proposed it before it was cool Souhan'd.
Yep, you're not agreeing with Souhan, you're agreeing with me
The issue with trading Eddie is there are a lot of players who have similar or slightly lesser offensive production out there. I would guess most GM's are aware of how much of a bonehead he can be on the base paths and in the field. Guys like him don't necessarily have a ton of value as there is nothing about his game that is unique. I could see Kirilloff making the team as the 4th outfielder, but getting a ton of at bats as he rotates in between outfield, DH and first base. I am guessing Rosario is on board for another year to see if he can up his trade value.
Somehow Puig has value; he and Eddie aren't all that different (at this time) although Eddie is younger and cheaper.
But much lower Q-ratings due to Small Market Syndrome.
This has a nice breakdown on Eddie. Great power but terrible pitch selection. Will he improve? Can he?
Another edition of @dan_aucoin13 MLB batted ball reports from the coaches perspective.
Today, we'll take a look at Eddie Rosario. He is as free swinging as it gets but flashed an incredible combo of power and contact this year.
Lewis will probably play one more year in the minors. I could see Gordon making the team as a super utility guy. In 2021 Lewis will make the team and possibly play 3rd base (Sano DH/1B). Or he is our insurance in CF if Buxton can't stay healthy.
Adrianza is arb-eligible one more time for 2020, and he seems to be valued for his approach as much as his flexibility & performance. Marwin is under contract for another year. Even assuming Arraez is the “everyday” second baseman and Astudillo is Garver’s back-up, I’d think Gordon would have to make a pretty compelling case for a roster spot. I suppose how much trade value he has is an open question.
I guess I am assuming Schoop is gone and there will be someone on the DL. Should have worded it as Gordon being the first guy up from the minors when someone gets hurt. I agree that Adrianza has another year in a Twins uniform.
A foregone conclusion. This is the best bone the front office could find to throw a growling fan base.
Mlbtraderumors.com is all over Odo today, suggesting he is a qualifying offer candidate and the Twins have to make an $18M per year decision on him.
Odo is hard to peg.
FIP by season
Year
FIP
2014
3.75
2015
3.61
2016
4.31
2017
5.43
2018
4.19
2019
3.36
Is he most represented by 2014-15 and 2019 or by the relative mediocrity of 2016-18?
He gave up a lot of long balls in 2016 (1.4/9) and 2017 (1.9!) but otherwise is right at 1.0. Career-high K rate this year and career-low HR rate.
Wes Johnson effect
QOing Odorizzi should be a no-brainer. He will probably not take it since he's got a good chance to get multiple years from someone even with the draft pick attached if his asks aren't Keuchel-level excessive. And if he doesn't get that from someone else, the Twins could come back to him in February or something and give him 2-3 years.
I think Odorizzi takes the QO. He's two years younger than Keuchel so is entering free agency at 30 instead of 31. But it's not clear he's significantly better so a team would be willing to lose a draft pick. Perhaps with an under $50 million multi-year deal? Keuchel did well in his half season this year, so that would encourage Odorizzi to hold out if nothing materializes.
I think both sides would be happy with that arrangement.
Some numbers say this was one of the better Twins staffs in pitching history. Even with the 2nd half free-fall of Perez and Gibson and missing Pineda the last month, their ERA+ was 6th in all of MLB (110).
The OPS+ of 117 is by far the franchise record (even if it was only 3rd in MLB). Their 110 ERA+ is 13th in franchise history behind the Johan led teams (2006-114, 2005-120, 2004-118), the 1991 champs (116), the inexplicable 1980 team (111 1st in MLB?), and teams from the first dozen years at Met Stadium (1972-113, 1970-118, 1969-114, 1967-112, 1966-116, 1965-114, 1963-111)
NTR - good data here; sincerely appreciate the assistance in keeping things objective/in perspective.
I see Fangrphas had our pitching as the 3rd best in MLB this year (by fWAR). Behind the Rays and Dodgers and just ahead of the Astros. To me that indicates they feel the defense let the team down a bit in run prevention. That passes the smell test.
The 1980 Twins were only 7th in E.R.A. in the American League, so that ERA+ is due to the Met being an enormous hitter's haven that year. Doug Corbett was an absolute stud. 5.7 WAR in his rookie year without making a single start.
I didn't know it was such a hitter's park. I guess it helps explain the powerful teams of the '60s but the '70s teams were pretty much devoid of power. People complained so much about the advantage the Metrodome gave the Twins, I assumed it was much better to hit in than the Met.
park factors tend to swing from year to year sometimes. Weather probably plays a factor in that.
Yes, I think at first blush we think they were not that good as the raw numbers look a bit shaky. However, with the home runs being so up this year, we are actually pretty good compared to the rest of the league.
The second half sticks in the memory more than the first.
The Twins' ERA dropped by about a third of a run while the league average ERA increased by about a third of a run. so the perceived improvement wasn't nearly as dramatic as it truly was. In '17, the Twins only had 2 good starters in Berrios and Gibson and Gibson is always perceived as inconsistent at best. If he can put his health problems completely behind him, watch for him to take off because he still set a career high in K rate this year with 9 K/9 and his walk rate was down from 2018, which was more of a mirage based on his ERA compared to FIP. The last 2 seasons combined, he has a 4.16 ERA (106 ERA+) with a 4.19 FIP. If he is healthy and can pick 180+ innings, he would be a solid 3 or 4 starter.
I realize that the Cardinals have done nothing directly to the Twins to draw the attention of my ire, but scoring TEN FRACKING RUNS in the first inning just really pisses me off.
(I also hate that they won in 2006 when the Twins had their best chance. Again, nothing directly between the two teams, but they're my NL Yankees)
Holy crap! They scored 10 runs on 5 hits, an absolute meltdown by the Braves. It included a bases loaded walk of the pitcher and the only strikeout didn't result in an out but instead a wild pitch and a run scored. Insanity!
The sac bunt by the second batter of the inning was the key to the 10 runs, I'm sure.
stating the obvious
I blame Joe Buck.
That said, I'm all aboard the anti - chop train.
How on Earth did the Cards think it was a good idea to let Flaherty pitch at all, much less toss him out for SIX innings after that first inning??
Shildt doesn't trust the pen to hold the 12 run lead.
If the Yankees are the Dodgers of the AL, and the Red Sox the Cubs, then the Twins should really want to be the Cardinals.
uh, sure!
Once more, with feeling:
Back when Willie was robbing Wertz, the eight teams of the American and National Leagues played 154 games. That was increased to 162 with AL expansion in 1961 (and 1962 in the NL's case).
And through 1968, only one of those teams per league advanced.
Thus, my theory was formed early: The main goal for a favorite team at the start of every season was to provide a relevant summer.
-Patrick Reusse
This is me, [re]gaining some perspective.
Heh, I wonder how Dodgers fans feel about this.
(I've been this way for a number of years now.)
Dump that bum Kershaw! Cancel his contract!
Maybe Levine and Falvey could get him off the scrap heap as a 4th or 5th starter.
For something that won't let you down: 1991 Rewind starts today!
And the Rugby World Cup is in full swing.
Salt River scored a run in the tenth to defeat Glendale 11-10. The Rafters are 11-5 and are in first place by three games.
Royce Lewis was 2-for-4 with a double, two walks, two runs, and two RBIs. He is batting .375/.426/688 in 48 at-bats.
Luke Raley was 1-for-3 with a double, a walk, and two RBIs. He is batting .186/.260/.302 in 43 at-bats.
Moises Gomez pitched an inning, giving up one run on two hits and striking out one. His ERA is 5.14 with 11 strikeouts in 7 innings.
Royce Lewis and Zach Neff will represent the Twins in the Fall Stars Game Saturday.
New Half-Baked Hall is up, and it's a doozy
Twins Daily with a short breakdown of off season payroll flexibility.
Initial thoughts on the rotation. Berrios obviously. I would sign Odorizzi or a comparable free agent for 2-3 years as a #3 pitcher. Would love to sign a bigger name for 3-4 years as the #1 or #2. For slots 4 and 5: This year, one will be filled with either Smeltzer or Dobnak. The other slot should be filled with a one year free agent as one of Balazovic or Graterol will be fully ready by 2021.
So, in my opinion, we are looking for a top of the rotation starter for 3-4 years and a second 1 year solid starter who can be a #4 starter. I am assuming we sign Odorizzi to a 2 to 3 year commitment. If he leaves us, we find someone comparable.
Trade Eddie. It's time for the Lewis/Kirilloff Era to start.
I was with you until I saw that Souhan is proposing it. I can't agree with him!
Take solace that he's jumping onto your bandwagon. You proposed it before it was
coolSouhan'd.Yep, you're not agreeing with Souhan, you're agreeing with me
The issue with trading Eddie is there are a lot of players who have similar or slightly lesser offensive production out there. I would guess most GM's are aware of how much of a bonehead he can be on the base paths and in the field. Guys like him don't necessarily have a ton of value as there is nothing about his game that is unique. I could see Kirilloff making the team as the 4th outfielder, but getting a ton of at bats as he rotates in between outfield, DH and first base. I am guessing Rosario is on board for another year to see if he can up his trade value.
Somehow Puig has value; he and Eddie aren't all that different (at this time) although Eddie is younger and cheaper.
But much lower Q-ratings due to Small Market Syndrome.
This has a nice breakdown on Eddie. Great power but terrible pitch selection. Will he improve? Can he?
Lewis will probably play one more year in the minors. I could see Gordon making the team as a super utility guy. In 2021 Lewis will make the team and possibly play 3rd base (Sano DH/1B). Or he is our insurance in CF if Buxton can't stay healthy.
Adrianza is arb-eligible one more time for 2020, and he seems to be valued for his approach as much as his flexibility & performance. Marwin is under contract for another year. Even assuming Arraez is the “everyday” second baseman and Astudillo is Garver’s back-up, I’d think Gordon would have to make a pretty compelling case for a roster spot. I suppose how much trade value he has is an open question.
I guess I am assuming Schoop is gone and there will be someone on the DL. Should have worded it as Gordon being the first guy up from the minors when someone gets hurt. I agree that Adrianza has another year in a Twins uniform.
In some very unsurprising news, the Twins officially pick up Cruz's option.
A foregone conclusion. This is the best bone the front office could find to throw a growling fan base.
Mlbtraderumors.com is all over Odo today, suggesting he is a qualifying offer candidate and the Twins have to make an $18M per year decision on him.
Odo is hard to peg.
FIP by season
Is he most represented by 2014-15 and 2019 or by the relative mediocrity of 2016-18?
He gave up a lot of long balls in 2016 (1.4/9) and 2017 (1.9!) but otherwise is right at 1.0. Career-high K rate this year and career-low HR rate.
Wes Johnson effect
QOing Odorizzi should be a no-brainer. He will probably not take it since he's got a good chance to get multiple years from someone even with the draft pick attached if his asks aren't Keuchel-level excessive. And if he doesn't get that from someone else, the Twins could come back to him in February or something and give him 2-3 years.
I think Odorizzi takes the QO. He's two years younger than Keuchel so is entering free agency at 30 instead of 31. But it's not clear he's significantly better so a team would be willing to lose a draft pick. Perhaps with an under $50 million multi-year deal? Keuchel did well in his half season this year, so that would encourage Odorizzi to hold out if nothing materializes.
I think both sides would be happy with that arrangement.
Some numbers say this was one of the better Twins staffs in pitching history. Even with the 2nd half free-fall of Perez and Gibson and missing Pineda the last month, their ERA+ was 6th in all of MLB (110).
The OPS+ of 117 is by far the franchise record (even if it was only 3rd in MLB). Their 110 ERA+ is 13th in franchise history behind the Johan led teams (2006-114, 2005-120, 2004-118), the 1991 champs (116), the inexplicable 1980 team (111 1st in MLB?), and teams from the first dozen years at Met Stadium (1972-113, 1970-118, 1969-114, 1967-112, 1966-116, 1965-114, 1963-111)
NTR - good data here; sincerely appreciate the assistance in keeping things objective/in perspective.
I see Fangrphas had our pitching as the 3rd best in MLB this year (by fWAR). Behind the Rays and Dodgers and just ahead of the Astros. To me that indicates they feel the defense let the team down a bit in run prevention. That passes the smell test.
The 1980 Twins were only 7th in E.R.A. in the American League, so that ERA+ is due to the Met being an enormous hitter's haven that year. Doug Corbett was an absolute stud. 5.7 WAR in his rookie year without making a single start.
I didn't know it was such a hitter's park. I guess it helps explain the powerful teams of the '60s but the '70s teams were pretty much devoid of power. People complained so much about the advantage the Metrodome gave the Twins, I assumed it was much better to hit in than the Met.
park factors tend to swing from year to year sometimes. Weather probably plays a factor in that.
Yes, I think at first blush we think they were not that good as the raw numbers look a bit shaky. However, with the home runs being so up this year, we are actually pretty good compared to the rest of the league.
The second half sticks in the memory more than the first.
The Twins' ERA dropped by about a third of a run while the league average ERA increased by about a third of a run. so the perceived improvement wasn't nearly as dramatic as it truly was. In '17, the Twins only had 2 good starters in Berrios and Gibson and Gibson is always perceived as inconsistent at best. If he can put his health problems completely behind him, watch for him to take off because he still set a career high in K rate this year with 9 K/9 and his walk rate was down from 2018, which was more of a mirage based on his ERA compared to FIP. The last 2 seasons combined, he has a 4.16 ERA (106 ERA+) with a 4.19 FIP. If he is healthy and can pick 180+ innings, he would be a solid 3 or 4 starter.
I realize that the Cardinals have done nothing directly to the Twins to draw the attention of my ire, but scoring TEN FRACKING RUNS in the first inning just really pisses me off.
(I also hate that they won in 2006 when the Twins had their best chance. Again, nothing directly between the two teams, but they're my NL Yankees)
Holy crap! They scored 10 runs on 5 hits, an absolute meltdown by the Braves. It included a bases loaded walk of the pitcher and the only strikeout didn't result in an out but instead a wild pitch and a run scored. Insanity!
The sac bunt by the second batter of the inning was the key to the 10 runs, I'm sure.
stating the obvious
I blame Joe Buck.
That said, I'm all aboard the anti - chop train.
How on Earth did the Cards think it was a good idea to let Flaherty pitch at all, much less toss him out for SIX innings after that first inning??
Shildt doesn't trust the pen to hold the 12 run lead.
If the Yankees are the Dodgers of the AL, and the Red Sox the Cubs, then the Twins should really want to be the Cardinals.
uh, sure!
Once more, with feeling:
This is me, [re]gaining some perspective.
Heh, I wonder how Dodgers fans feel about this.
(I've been this way for a number of years now.)
Dump that bum Kershaw! Cancel his contract!
Maybe Levine and Falvey could get him off the scrap heap as a 4th or 5th starter.
Regular season only.