49 thoughts on “February 3, 2022: Brisk”

      1. Schoenfield: Well, Bryce Harper at No. 94 is a little silly (if you want to put an active right fielder on the list, it should have been Mookie Betts, who trumps Harper -- so far -- in both career value and peak value). But what also stands out, despite our addiction to history and stats, is that we just love the players we love: Mickey Mantle (great in his 20s), Ken Griffey Jr. (great in his 20s), Derek Jeter (overrated defender), Mariano Rivera (reliever), Sandy Koufax (short career), Pete Rose (hung on way too long just to break records), Nolan Ryan (one of a kind), Tony Gwynn (singles hitter), Ichiro Suzuki (one-of-a-kind singles hitter) are probably all ranked too high ... but these are some of the most beloved players in history -- or in Rose's case, simultaneously beloved and despised -- and they loom a little larger in our memories.

        Doolittle: When I dove into the issue of greatest shortstops ever a couple of years back, I ended up with Derek Jeter at No. 4. So it's not like I don't think he was a great player; he's certainly in the top 100. But I probably wouldn't put him in the top 50, much less at No. 28. Just to list some of the infielders he's ranked ahead of: Joe Morgan, Jackie Robinson, Cal Ripken Jr., George Brett, Nap Lajoie, Pop Lloyd and Eddie Collins. Too high.

        Gonzalez: Recency bias is a real thing. So is a prevailing narrative. And that seemed to show up on our list, particularly when it comes to David Ortiz and Derek Jeter. Ortiz (No. 62) and Jeter (No. 28) are simply listed too high. This isn't a ranking of players who most resonated with their respective cities; this is the 100 Greatest Players of All Time, for crying out loud. Ortiz, a one-dimensional player throughout his career, is listed ahead of Brooks Robinson and Max Scherzer? Jeter, beloved largely for intangibles, is ranked ahead of Albert Pujols and Sandy Koufax? Come on now.

        1. Olney: I have felt for years that Rickey Henderson is not given his due in the all-time rankings. The object of the game is to score as many runs as possible, and nobody did that better than Rickey. He's not a top-five player, but top 20? Hell yes. It's still incredible to me that 28 voters left him off their Hall of Fame ballots.

          As I said, about 15th. Also, plenty of talk about Jeter being way too high.

          Which two players would you swap on our list?
          Olney: Two Texans, Clayton Kershaw (No. 52) and Nolan Ryan (No. 42). The Express is unlike any other player in history, in how he compiled innings, walks and strikeouts, but Kershaw has been demonstrably better at preventing runs. Isn't that the primary responsibility of pitching?

          Doolittle: I think swapping Jeter (No. 28) with Ripken (No. 66) improves the list considerably. How did we end up with Ripken Jr. at No. 66? Anyway, Ripken was at least as good a hitter in terms of career value and was a vastly superior defender, more than enough to account for the fact that he eventually moved off of shortstop and Jeter didn't. And while Jeter had the most prodigious postseason career of anyone, on a rate basis, Ripken was better there, too. Jeter just had a lot more October opportunities.

          Keown: I'll stay with Brad's theme here but add a twist. I know the rules say two players, but I propose a three-way trade: Ripken jumps from 66 to 37, replacing Joe Morgan, who jumps to Jeter's spot at 28, with Jeter dropping to 66.

          1. Did none of these people watch Ripken jog around the field for 22 minutes during a standing ovation on September 6, 1995?

        2. Schoenfield: Well, Bryce Harper at No. 94 is a little silly (if you want to put an active right fielder on the list, it should have been Mookie Betts, who trumps Harper -- so far -- in both career value and peak value).

          Harper at 94 is more than a little silly. His WAR7 (35.8) ranks him 33rd among primary RFers, below Dwight Evans (30th, 37.3) and Dave Parker (31st, 37.3) and just above Rocky Colavito (35th, 35.4) and Giancarlo Stanton (36th, 35.1).

          Sure, he's just entering his age-29 season and might have a couple of big(ger) years left. But he's had a grand total of one season with an rWAR above 6 (9.7 in his age-22 MVP year). Tony Oliva (24th, 38.6 ) had 3, the last in his age-31 1970 season. And Tony is nowhere near that 4ltr list.

          1. How on earth IS Bryce on the list while Mookie isn't? Mookie is very clearly the better player, and trends toward being, if not an all-timer (though I certainly think he could be), at LEAST a no doubt Hall of Famer. Basically, as long as Mookie plays two more years, his ticket is punched.

            Bryce might end up being a Hall of Famer? It seems likely at the moment, but I don't think that's a certainty.

            1. Here’s a fun one:

              Player Rank rWAR WAR7
              Harper 94 40.1 35.8
              Player A snub 43.0 38.6
              Vlad 77 59.5 41.2
              Player B snub 72.7 44.7
              Reggie 55 73.9 46.8
              Winfield 56 64.2 37.9
              Player C snub 50.0 47.7
              ABC SelectShow
                1. It does — or at least the rankings of Reggie & Winfield look really inflated.

                  Re: Player A SelectShow
                  1. co-sign on Player A.

                    Since we are playing these games, you note that Player A was worth 5.4 rWAR per 650 PA from ages 25-32. Some other age-aligned comparisons, just for fun.

                    Player X: 6.0 rWAR per 650, ages 25-32
                    Player Y: 6.6 rWAR per 650, ages 25-32
                    Player Z: 4.4 rWAR per 650, ages 25-32

                    Spoiler SelectShow
            2. through his age-28 season, Darryl Strawberry had accumulated 36.6 rWAR, 7 ASG appearances, a ROY, 2 Silver Slugger awards and 4 top-10 MVP results.

              And we know how that one turned out. Age-29 was his last ASG season and pretty much his last season above replacement level (excepting a 1.5 rWAR season at age-36)

              1. If Mookie falls off to the exact extent that Straw did (5.6 rWAR over his last 9 seasons), he'll end up with 55.6 career rWAR, and a JAWS of 51.7. That would be just below Evans & Ichiro and just above Winfield. I'd say he's safe.

      2. Players ranked higher than Rod Carew:

        Player Rank rWAR
        Rod Carew 75 81.2
        Willie McCovey 73 64.5
        Harmon Killebrew 70 60.4
        Manny Ramirez 68 69.3
        David Ortiz 63 55.3
        Miguel Cabrera 59 68.7
        Dave Winfield 56 64.2
        Reggie Jackson 55 73.9
        Frank Thomas 49 73.8
        Tony Gwynn 44 69.2
        Derek Jeter 28 71.3

        No offense to some guys who had very fine careers, but that is laughable.

        All of those guys from Ortiz down are also ranked ahead of Eddie Mathews (64, 96.1 rWAR). Adrián Beltré (93.5) is 97th! That is flat contemptable.

        Iván Rodríguez, Carlton Fisk, Mike Piazza, & Yogi Berra all made the top 100. Gary Carter didn’t even make the list of snubs.

        1. a reasonable metric would be to look at WAR7
          Given that Williams lost his age 24- through age-26 seasons to WWII service and he sandwiched slash-triple crown and conventional triple crown seasons around those three, I'd say it is very fair to suggest that maybe his WAR7 is lower than it would have been and that he very plausibly might have ranked first among LFers.

          LF 1. Bonds (72.6) 2. Ted Williams (68.2) 3. RICKEY (57.6) 4. Yaz (55.5) 5. Ed Delhanty (48.6)
          CF 1. Mays (73.5) 2. Cobb (69.0) 3. Trout (65.1) 4. Mantle (64.7) 5. Speaker (62.6) 6. Griffey Jr (54.0) 7. DiMaggio (52.2)
          RF 1. Ruth (85.3) 2. Musial (64.7) 3. Aaron (60.3) 4. Clemente (54.4) 5. Ott (53.7) 6. Frank Robinson (52.8) 7. Shoeless Joe (52.5)
          C 1. Carter (48.4) 2. Bench (47.2) 3. Piazza (43.1) 4. I. Rodriguez (39.8) 5. Mauer (39.0)
          1b 1. Gehrig (67.7) 2. Pujols (61.7) 3. Foxx (57.9) 4. Mize (48.5) 5. Bagwell (48.4)
          2b 1. Hornsby (74.1) 2. Collins (64.2) 3. Lajoie (60.1) 4. Morgan (59.2) 5. Gehringer (52.8) 6. Carew (49.8)
          3b 1. Schmidt (58.8) 2. Boggs (56.4) 3. Mathews (53.9) 4. Santo (53.8) 5. Brett (53.3) 6. Beltre (48.7)
          SS 1. Wagner (65.3) 2. A-Rod (64.3) 3. Ripken (56.3) 4. Vaughan (53.2) 5. Banks (52.1) 6. Boudreau (49.2) 7. Yount (47.3)
          P 1. Big Train (89.3) 2. Cy (78.0) 3. Clarkson (74.7) 4. Nichols (74.5) 5. Mathewson (70.2) 6. Pete Alexander (69.6) 7. McCormick (68.7)

          You have to get down to Clemens at 10th (65.9) to get a recognizably "modern" pitcher. Randy Johnson (61.5) and Bob Gibson (61.2) are 16 and 17, respectively. Seaver (59.4) and Pedro (58.2) are 20 and 21.

          1. so, focusing just on position players, ignoring black baseball greats pre-integration, and making no accommodation for the systematically lower numbers for catching greats,

            1. Ruth
            2. Hornsby
            3. Mays
            4. Ted Williams
            5. Barry Bonds
            6. Cobb
            7. Gehrig
            8. Wagner
            9. Trout
            10. Mantle
            10(t). Musial

            8 of those 11 were OFers in their primes, including 4 who were primarily CFers. Not sure what to think about that.

            There are 17 position players with WAR7 above 60.0 on that list above (others include, in order, A-Rod, Collins, Speaker, Pujols, Aaron, Lajoie).

            1. It’s fairly clear that catchers need a different form of WAR to account for the unique characteristics of their position. With all the attention devoted to properly evaluating relievers (especially in the HoF context), I’m really surprised there hasn’t been a better attempt to adjust catcher WAR relative to players down the defensive spectrum, even knowing that the defensive and game-calling aspects are hard to account for across the span of history.

              1. I wonder if it is as easy as calculating the difference in oWAR between the average "non-catcher" positional player and the average catcher. This would, for the most part, take into account the physical demands of the catcher position offensively (as a guy who caught waaaay too many games, I can tell you it was sometimes hard to even walk to the plate after a long defensive inning). Then you would rate catchers defensively compared to their peers. So, for arguments sake, if the average catcher is only 90% as offensively successful in accumulating WAR, then you account for that difference by giving them a 10% offensive kick compared to other positional players. Of course, defensive metrics for catchers prior to the last 15-20 years would be hard to evaluate, but at least for our current generation of catchers, we would have some sort of statistical comparison guideline to follow. That all being said, I bet you my summer patio business that if we sat down with any modern statistically savvy G.M., they probably already know how to statistically evaluate modern catchers and probably even catchers from the past 50-60 years compared to other positional players.

                1. That is close to how the positional value is calculated. You compare how players bat at different positions and apply adjustments to get them all equal. This works very well for the outfield, 2B-SS-3B, and 3B-1B comparisons. There tends to be just enough players that play a corner outfield and corner infield to allow putting those two groups on the same scale. Catcher is harder because there traditionally hasn't been much crossover. Furthermore, until recently, a decent chunk of catcher value, framing, was instead assigned to pitchers. We simply didn't have the data available to calculate that except at the career level. We now have that for catchers starting in 2007/2008. We might see catcher WAR tick up a little bit for careers after that.

          2. If you were to use WAR7Adj, which seeks to control for the extremely high innings totals of Deadball Era pitchers, you’d get this top seven:

            Big Train, 65.0
            Clemens, 64.0
            Big Unit, 60.4
            L. Grove, 59.7
            Pedro, 58.2
            Maddux, 55.2
            Seaver, 53.9

            My problem with this is that throwing a ton of innings is clearly a skill…but do the bulk innnings of the Deadball starters have more value than the premium innings by modern hurlers?

            I’m wary of discounting pre-whatever stars in any case. Ted Williams is, I think, the perfect example. Many of the same things that made The Thumper the greatest hitter ever also made Captain Williams an elite combat pilot whose flying spanned the transition from piston to jet fighters. Adam Ottavino can think he’d “strike Babe Ruth out every time,” but that assumes Ruth is teleported from his time period without recourse to any advances in nutrition, training, or rehabilitative medicine, and that a career spent facing illegal pitches and obliterating filthy, overused mush balls with a relative railroad tie means the guy didn’t have ridiculous eyesight, pitch recognition, and hand-eye coordination.

        2. You should put that on Twitter and tag Rod. He's pretty classy so he might not touch it but he does interact quite a bit.

          1. all but two of the mentions in CH's list (Gwynn and Jetes) were power hitters.

            Chicks and baseball writers dig the long ball.

  1. Jim Harbaugh, still the coach of the Michigan Wolverines.

    As an erstwhile Vikings fan, ready to jump on the bandwagon as soon as they win the Super Bowl (ha!), I thought that the potential enjoyment of having Harbaugh coaching this team was through the roof, mainly because I saw this as an opportunity to raise everyone's hopes and then have it end very, very badly. In other words, it seemed like the start of a new, soul crushing journey for the purple faithful.

    However....

    He didn't get the job. I don't know if the dude they selected will be a good choice, but it feels like the Wilfs let their GM get the guy he wanted. Or maybe Harbaugh just asked for the world and the Wilfs didn't want to give it to him. It's an amazingly bad look for Harbaugh. He went on this interview on National Signing Day (most programs get their guys on the new early signing day, but whatever) and didn't get an offer. He's been iffy at Michigan, this last season notwithstanding, and I think the university will probably regret not seeing him leave.

    1. mainly because I saw this as an opportunity to raise everyone's hopes and then have it end very, very badly

      You said so succinctly what I had been vaguely thinking during this process. All the blurbs I read mentioned how Harbaugh could help them win now, and look at his record, and so on and so forth, and it just all seemed to be these false promises that people like to believe. The idea that the Vikings are going about this a different way... means it'll be a totally different type of soul crushing journey than the ones we're used to, right?

  2. The Complete List of 2022 Rock & Roll Hall of Fame Nominees
    (Asterisks indicate artists receiving their first nomination.)

    Beck*
    Pat Benatar
    Kate Bush
    DEVO
    Duran Duran*
    Eminem*
    Eurythmics
    Judas Priest
    Fela Kuti
    MC5
    New York Dolls
    Dolly Parton*
    Rage Against the Machine
    Lionel Richie*
    Carly Simon*
    A Tribe Called Quest*
    Dionne Warwick

    1. How do they handle distinctions between “rock” and performers of primarily or exclusively other genres? Besides, I presume, loosely.

  3. I just learned this story (of course, through Chris Jaffe):

    53 years ago today, 2 hijackers took over an Eastern Airlines flight for Miami & demanded it go to Cuba instead. Passengers were scared - until they notice that Allen Funt was on the plane. They figure it’s all a Candid Camera gag and start laughing - even asking him to sign their barf bags. But it isn’t a gag - the plane really had been hijacked and ends up in Cuba. When passengers left the plane, many make angry remarks at him, blaming him for it.

  4. So my brother goes golfing with some buddies in Scottsdale (or something like that) and somehow ends up at Dan Gladden’s place having drinks with him and Chili Davis. There were pictures. This guy…

      1. I thought maybe the most amusing part was Dan and Chili still getting together for rounds of golf 30 years later. That’s cool.

        1. As I am 4 weeks away from vacationing for a week in Scottsdale... what golf course? I could be convinced to fanboy at that course for several days in the hope of hanging out with Chili Davis.

  5. There is more than one person here going to Florida for "spring training" this year; makes me glad that this wasn't a year we are going to Ft. Myers. That said, man the $$ for places to stay there have gotten stiff.

    1. Looking forward to Jhoan Durán’s contributions to the surplus value of the Pierzynski trade eventually putting it over the top for best in the Minnesota chapter of franchise history.

      1. Not sure how I feel about the overall negative value of the Escobar trade. Escobar was an impending free agent that extended with Arizona right before free agency began. On one hand, Arizona couldn't have extended him without the trade but the Twins were unlikely to extend him.

        Also, the site doesn't break down which players accumulated how much WAR for the team.

      1. Nevermind, if has some.

        TIL that the Yankees acquisition of Chuck Knoblauch (through Brian Buchanan) was an extension of their trade tree that began with their trade of Roy Smalley.

    1. Wait... which 5 letter word are they thinking of to explain the regional differences? And how do they mean it?

  6. This is just cruel.

  7. I’m glad the ol’ COVID test came back negative, but man, it appears I’ve forgotten how annoyingly miserable your average seasonal sinus cold can be. On the plus side, hot buttered brandy (I know, I know … not exactly hydration and rest).

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