31 thoughts on “October 12, 2022: Conflict Of Interest”

    1. To paraphrase what Bill James wrote in a similar situation, if you're not going to hustle in the playoffs, just when are you planning to?

    1. Low OBP, low power, no position, often injured. He's fun to watch but I'd move him if you can get something for him.

      1. Low OBP? He had a .375 OBP this year and .374 for his career. He walks at a league average rate. Not overall disagreeing with your thesis, but he OBPs quite well.

        1. I stand corrected. I thought it was lower than that.

          Although, I'd say you really need an OBP of .400 to make up for that lack of power.

            1. Carew's career ISO was .101; with the Twins it was .114. Arraez's career ISO is .096 though this season it was .104. Carew was a second baseman until he moved to first. There are similarities.

      2. Of all that, I worry most about the injuries. Performance-wise he’s pretty solid and I trust the team to value him a lot more rationally these days than if we’d had a player with his skills 15 years ago.

          1. I'm in the "not Carew" group.

            And I think this team has way too many position-less players.

            I enjoy Arraez but he's the only one with much trade value.

            1. I think this too many position-less players is a huge issue that needs to be addressed going into 2023. Arraez, Miranda, Larnach, Kirilloff...

              1. I think part of the problem is these guys DO have a position, but since no one can stay healthy for any length of time, they're getting jerked around the field. But yeah, reminiscent of Harmon -- what's up with that?

                1. If they all turn into Hall of Fame players, they can be lacking a position. I guess I'm in the not-Hall-of-Fame camp on all of them. I hope you're right and I'm wrong.

                  1. I'm not sure how I can be right when I'm not taking any position here. I was just remembering how Harmon was without a position back in the day, and I'm not sure any of us have figured that one out.

                    1. Lots of players are position-less. You're choosing Hall of Fame players as comparison. I guess that's just a coincidence.

            2. I'd say you really need an OBP of .400 to make up for that lack of power.

              Arráez posted a 130 OPS+ this season and has a 120 OPS+ for his career. Here are some career numbers of Arráez’ teammates for comparison:

              Player PA ISO OPS+
              Cruz 8244 .241 131
              Donaldson 5667 .227 131
              Correa 3813 .200 129
              Arráez 1569 .096 120
              Sanó 2859 .248 116
              Cron 3765 .213 113
              Polanco 3186 .174 111
              Sánchez 2665 .242 109
              Buxton 2140 .229 108
              Rosario 3512 .192 105
              Kepler 3361 .195 101
              Schoop 4465 .178 97

              I think Arráez more than makes up for a lower ISO compared to some of his low-OBP, slugging peers.

              As long as the current environment leads to a high number of strikeouts and outs on balls in play, players like Arráez seem essential to keeping rallies going. One of the most frustrating things about watching the Twins over the last several years has been a tendency for the lineup full of guys who kill rallies with a penchant for unproductive outs. Arráez, along with Cruz, Donaldson, and Correa, has been an essential counterweight to that. (Miranda looks like he may be one, too.) Yes, they’ve been decimated by injuries, but look at that table above. The promise of guys like Kirilloff and Larnach is that they are likely to hit for moderate-or-better power while having better on-base skills than Sanó, Kepler, Buxton, & Rosario have exhibited.

              (Side note: Bo Jackson is Buxton’s most similar player through age-28. I find this both compelling and disturbing.)

      1. Dude has always been one of my favorite ballplayers of all time, then I see that he did concerts for Iron Maiden and Judas Priest.

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