Naturally I fell asleep before the end of this game instead of Monday’s.
32 thoughts on “May 17, 2023: Zzz”
Same, hj.
The Poissonnière has not been happy about these West Coast start times coinciding with bedtime.
It's taking me back to the days when I lived in LA -- I had to check the morning box scores in USA Today or keep an eye on Sportscenter on ESPN while getting ready for work in the morning if I wanted to find out if the Twins won the night before.
Happy Syttende Mai, Citizens!
I'm not entirely sure how Louie Varland can have a 0.4 WAR and Bailey Ober a 0.0 WAR, but I never had Advanced Statistics in college.
BR has Ober at 1.5 rWAR and Varland at 0.4 rWAR. FanGraphs has both of them a bit lower, at 0.9 and 0.0 fWAR respectively. Ober has an excellent ERA (1.53) but his FIP is merely above average at 3.01.
Well yeah, I definitely wouldn't consider ESPN's website as gospel...
ESPN says it sources WAR data from Baseball-Reference. Every other pitcher on the Twins matches BR's data except Ober.
Probably some interns fault.
0.9 WAR in 30.1 IP is still pretty phenomenal, to be fair.
Spoiled by Gray's 1.9 fWAR in 45.1 innings and Ryan's 1.6 fWAR in 50 innings.
With only three “formal” practices under their belts, Niblet’s 7-8 Little League team had their first game last night. No tees - coaches pitch - with actual strikes, outs and runs officially kept for the first time in his experience. No BB and fouls are not counted as Ks. 3 outs or 5 runs per team each inning. Games are 6 innings or two(!) hours.
Batting order and defensive assignments are random but must be rotated to achieve as much parity as possible in at-bats and fielding opportunities.
Kernel was tasked to lead off the top of the first and managed to roll a single to third base. He then roped a single up the middle in his next at-bat in the second inning (I think it could have been a double except a few of the guys are still just doing their best to remember the next bag to run to, and when to go).
In all, I believe he reached in all his at-bats and was responsible for making the final out via rundown in the bottom of the sixth.
I stopped counting, but I wouldn’t be surprised if his team put up two dozen runs to the oppositions 5 or 6. I feel confident that the opponent tomorrow night will not feature as many 7-year-olds as were apparent in last night’s game.
That's the age the bauble started as well. Watching that age group is..... frustrating. Pay attention kids!
This year he's in his first kid pitch league and I was kind of shocked to find out that's what it was and that the ages are from 9-12. The nine-year-olds (and especially the bauble) are badly physically out-gunned. The biggest challenge this year will be managing his self-esteem as he strikes out constantly. That said, he did reach base last night for the first time (well, second technically, but the first time he got hit in the leg and had to come out) on a walk and even stole second, then was foolishly told to run to third by his coach on a grounder to short. He was immediately tagged for the third out. They did end up winning, at least.
I remember pitching in one of those leagues. Our "club league" (Eagles, KofC, Kiwanis, American Legion, etc) had a "junior" level and a "senior" level, with the transition determined by birthdate.
Summer birthday, so I got left behind while my classmates moved up the summer before 8th grade. I was about 5'6" and we played on softball diamonds. So I was like Randy Johnson sized compared to those 4th graders.
On the flip side, my first year I was afraid of the ball and spent a lot of time on the bench or in right field.
It is different, to be sure. I coached his T-ball (and soccer) teams the past three years* and watching their skills develop as they become little athletes instead of just little kids is so rewarding. Of course, they’re still 1st and 2nd graders, so beyond the wide range of physical abilities and hand/eye coordination, just paying attention and remembering the basics is still an uphill struggle sometimes.
*took a knee this year as I’ve inherited the privilege of driving them all over hell and creation, including (soon enough) for daily summer activities spread out across the northeast metro, and couldn’t justify the time consuming work of being a head coach.
Looking at bWAR this morning , the top 4 Twins performers are pitchers (Sonny, JoeRyan, Ober, Jorge Lopez) 5 of 7 if you include Pablo Lopez tied with Bux and Gallo
I have to admit I didn't think the Gallo or Farmer acquisitions were going to be as impactful as they have been. I sure hope it continues.
And Carlos continues to bat 3rd in the lineup
He has been making better contact of late.
The walks and the extra-base hits have been there, he just needs to get back to hitting more singles in addition to the walks and XBH.
Meanwhile, Brent Rooker leads the A's in WAR, with 1.8 rWAR. He has 11 home runs. His walk rate is at a career high while his strikeout rate is down to what it was in rookie league. He also has a stolen base.
it’s good to see Rooker having some success given how his debut was disrupted by injury and how he’s bounced around. It’s just too bad for him that it’s happening in Oakland.
It’s too bad for everyone what is happening in Oakland, maybe except for Fischer. (Not that I think you’d particularly disagree.)
Teams should be required to post back-to-back .500+ seasons before they are eligible to move. Unfortunately, the fox is guarding the henhouse on that issue.
This is the fourth game in which Emilio Pagán has lowered the Twins' win probability by at least 50% since the start of last season.
All other #MNTwins relievers have combined for six such games over that time and no one else has done it more than twice.https://t.co/oUX8deuCJr
This kinda BS makes Gleeman just as bad as all the old-timers he used to flame on his blog. He’s invented an arbitrary statistic “losing 50%+ WPA in one appearance”, and then goes on to pretend like it is meaningful. Taken at face value, he appears to be arguing that Pagan is the worst relief pitcher the Twins have, which isn’t and hasn’t been the case the last two seasons if you sit down and actually evaluate the roster.
There’s no reason to believe that “number of times losing 50%+ WPA” is any better or worse than just counting blown saves, which itself is just as bad as counting wins for SP or saves for RP.
The 50% threshold is cherry-picking at its finest, too. Look at Joe Nathan in 2005. All-Star closer, trusted by everyone. He had three appearances just in that year where he lost 40% WPA or more.
WPA in the first place is a storytime metric, not a serious way to evaluate pitchers. This is especially true for relievers, because the worst pitchers in the bullpen tend to come in when the team is losing, so they don’t have 50% WPA to lose in the first place.
Looking at Pagan’s game log, he has 2 appearances where he’s allowed 1+ runs more than expected given the base-out scenario. One of those times was the Boston game where he came in on short notice, and the other game was today. 9 of his 16 appearances have been above-average relative to the base-out scenario.
I just hate this scapegoating these games on one guy, it’s dumb. Other pitchers could have given up the win and in the 6th, Polanco-Solano-Farmer managed to cost the team 30% WPA, which is pretty impressive with 3 innings left to play.
Agree on pretty much everything you are saying.
Gleeman seems more into marketing himself these days than analysis. If he's interviewed by a statistics guy, he still comes off fine. But otherwise it's about KFAN and clicks.
His pieces in The Athletic are pretty formulaic. I can pretty much guess what his perspective will be, which stats he’ll cite to make a particular argument, and honestly, it doesn’t make for compelling reading. (“Mediocre” would be the Gleeman adjective of choice.) He’s not pushing himself, and he never developed a talent for a narrative that matched his critical peak. I can’t think of the last time I learned something new about baseball from him, and for a guy who co-founded The Hardball Times, and was EiC of Baseball Prospectus, that’s pretty sad.
I stopped using mediocre in general because I had enough reading his usage of it.
Ha! I deliberately avoid using that word for the same reason.
I think it was also Aaron that bolstered my continued avoidance of "concerning" when "disconcerting" is the correct word.
Looks like an interesting read, but I gave up my subscription to The Gray Lady because SPOILER and have exhausted the limited free articles for cooking related purposes.
Baseball Returns to the ‘Hallowed Grounds’ of a Negro Leagues Stadium Gifted link
Same, hj.
The Poissonnière has not been happy about these West Coast start times coinciding with bedtime.
It's taking me back to the days when I lived in LA -- I had to check the morning box scores in USA Today or keep an eye on Sportscenter on ESPN while getting ready for work in the morning if I wanted to find out if the Twins won the night before.
Happy Syttende Mai, Citizens!
I'm not entirely sure how Louie Varland can have a 0.4 WAR and Bailey Ober a 0.0 WAR, but I never had Advanced Statistics in college.
BR has Ober at 1.5 rWAR and Varland at 0.4 rWAR. FanGraphs has both of them a bit lower, at 0.9 and 0.0 fWAR respectively. Ober has an excellent ERA (1.53) but his FIP is merely above average at 3.01.
Well yeah, I definitely wouldn't consider ESPN's website as gospel...
ESPN says it sources WAR data from Baseball-Reference. Every other pitcher on the Twins matches BR's data except Ober.
Probably some interns fault.
0.9 WAR in 30.1 IP is still pretty phenomenal, to be fair.
Spoiled by Gray's 1.9 fWAR in 45.1 innings and Ryan's 1.6 fWAR in 50 innings.
With only three “formal” practices under their belts, Niblet’s 7-8 Little League team had their first game last night. No tees - coaches pitch - with actual strikes, outs and runs officially kept for the first time in his experience. No BB and fouls are not counted as Ks. 3 outs or 5 runs per team each inning. Games are 6 innings or two(!) hours.
Batting order and defensive assignments are random but must be rotated to achieve as much parity as possible in at-bats and fielding opportunities.
Kernel was tasked to lead off the top of the first and managed to roll a single to third base. He then roped a single up the middle in his next at-bat in the second inning (I think it could have been a double except a few of the guys are still just doing their best to remember the next bag to run to, and when to go).
In all, I believe he reached in all his at-bats and was responsible for making the final out via rundown in the bottom of the sixth.
I stopped counting, but I wouldn’t be surprised if his team put up two dozen runs to the oppositions 5 or 6. I feel confident that the opponent tomorrow night will not feature as many 7-year-olds as were apparent in last night’s game.
That's the age the bauble started as well. Watching that age group is..... frustrating. Pay attention kids!
This year he's in his first kid pitch league and I was kind of shocked to find out that's what it was and that the ages are from 9-12. The nine-year-olds (and especially the bauble) are badly physically out-gunned. The biggest challenge this year will be managing his self-esteem as he strikes out constantly. That said, he did reach base last night for the first time (well, second technically, but the first time he got hit in the leg and had to come out) on a walk and even stole second, then was foolishly told to run to third by his coach on a grounder to short. He was immediately tagged for the third out. They did end up winning, at least.
I remember pitching in one of those leagues. Our "club league" (Eagles, KofC, Kiwanis, American Legion, etc) had a "junior" level and a "senior" level, with the transition determined by birthdate.
Summer birthday, so I got left behind while my classmates moved up the summer before 8th grade. I was about 5'6" and we played on softball diamonds. So I was like Randy Johnson sized compared to those 4th graders.
On the flip side, my first year I was afraid of the ball and spent a lot of time on the bench or in right field.
It is different, to be sure. I coached his T-ball (and soccer) teams the past three years* and watching their skills develop as they become little athletes instead of just little kids is so rewarding. Of course, they’re still 1st and 2nd graders, so beyond the wide range of physical abilities and hand/eye coordination, just paying attention and remembering the basics is still an uphill struggle sometimes.
*took a knee this year as I’ve inherited the privilege of driving them all over hell and creation, including (soon enough) for daily summer activities spread out across the northeast metro, and couldn’t justify the time consuming work of being a head coach.
Looking at bWAR this morning , the top 4 Twins performers are pitchers (Sonny, JoeRyan, Ober, Jorge Lopez) 5 of 7 if you include Pablo Lopez tied with Bux and Gallo
I have to admit I didn't think the Gallo or Farmer acquisitions were going to be as impactful as they have been. I sure hope it continues.
And Carlos continues to bat 3rd in the lineup
He has been making better contact of late.
The walks and the extra-base hits have been there, he just needs to get back to hitting more singles in addition to the walks and XBH.
Meanwhile, Brent Rooker leads the A's in WAR, with 1.8 rWAR. He has 11 home runs. His walk rate is at a career high while his strikeout rate is down to what it was in rookie league. He also has a stolen base.
it’s good to see Rooker having some success given how his debut was disrupted by injury and how he’s bounced around. It’s just too bad for him that it’s happening in Oakland.
It’s too bad for everyone what is happening in Oakland, maybe except for Fischer. (Not that I think you’d particularly disagree.)
Teams should be required to post back-to-back .500+ seasons before they are eligible to move. Unfortunately, the fox is guarding the henhouse on that issue.
This kinda BS makes Gleeman just as bad as all the old-timers he used to flame on his blog. He’s invented an arbitrary statistic “losing 50%+ WPA in one appearance”, and then goes on to pretend like it is meaningful. Taken at face value, he appears to be arguing that Pagan is the worst relief pitcher the Twins have, which isn’t and hasn’t been the case the last two seasons if you sit down and actually evaluate the roster.
There’s no reason to believe that “number of times losing 50%+ WPA” is any better or worse than just counting blown saves, which itself is just as bad as counting wins for SP or saves for RP.
The 50% threshold is cherry-picking at its finest, too. Look at Joe Nathan in 2005. All-Star closer, trusted by everyone. He had three appearances just in that year where he lost 40% WPA or more.
WPA in the first place is a storytime metric, not a serious way to evaluate pitchers. This is especially true for relievers, because the worst pitchers in the bullpen tend to come in when the team is losing, so they don’t have 50% WPA to lose in the first place.
Looking at Pagan’s game log, he has 2 appearances where he’s allowed 1+ runs more than expected given the base-out scenario. One of those times was the Boston game where he came in on short notice, and the other game was today. 9 of his 16 appearances have been above-average relative to the base-out scenario.
I just hate this scapegoating these games on one guy, it’s dumb. Other pitchers could have given up the win and in the 6th, Polanco-Solano-Farmer managed to cost the team 30% WPA, which is pretty impressive with 3 innings left to play.
Agree on pretty much everything you are saying.
Gleeman seems more into marketing himself these days than analysis. If he's interviewed by a statistics guy, he still comes off fine. But otherwise it's about KFAN and clicks.
His pieces in The Athletic are pretty formulaic. I can pretty much guess what his perspective will be, which stats he’ll cite to make a particular argument, and honestly, it doesn’t make for compelling reading. (“Mediocre” would be the Gleeman adjective of choice.) He’s not pushing himself, and he never developed a talent for a narrative that matched his critical peak. I can’t think of the last time I learned something new about baseball from him, and for a guy who co-founded The Hardball Times, and was EiC of Baseball Prospectus, that’s pretty sad.
I stopped using mediocre in general because I had enough reading his usage of it.
Ha! I deliberately avoid using that word for the same reason.
I think it was also Aaron that bolstered my continued avoidance of "concerning" when "disconcerting" is the correct word.
Fun story about the restoration of Hinchliffe Stadium in Paterson NJ
Looks like an interesting read, but I gave up my subscription to The Gray Lady because SPOILER and have exhausted the limited free articles for cooking related purposes.
Baseball Returns to the ‘Hallowed Grounds’ of a Negro Leagues Stadium Gifted link
Awesome! I hope they do get MLB games there.