Ober's quality start run came to a crashing end in July, lasting only four innings and giving up six runs. His start last week against Arizona didn't qualify due to pitching five innings but his game score of 50 is exactly average. Ober's only start against Detroit fit the quality start metric exactly with six innings and three runs allowed. That would have worked on Monday but only Haddix perfection had a chance to earn a win yesterday.
Alex Faedo might be the guy to fix the offense. A former first round pick, he finally made it to the majors last year. He has a career 5.70 ERA, and 4.70 FIP, in 89 ⅓ innings for a negative WAR but good for him to make the majors at 26. He faced the Twins once last year, earning a no decision with two runs given up in five innings that the Tigers eventually won 3-2.
Yesterday's game marked two-thirds of the season. Pro-rating to the full 162 games puts the Twins at 82.5 wins, a mere tenth of a win below their preseason forecast. FanGraphs is more optimistic now, projecting them at 83.5 wins.
Cardinals tore it down while the Twins did nothing (on deadline day). I can't really blame them after making big trades last year that did poorly. Sure would be nice to have Steer's .320/.377/.602 versus lefties with the Twins this year.
Another solid start wasted by the bullpen. The batters however did their part with seven runs.
This is Bryce Miller's rookie season. BA and MLB prospect rankings had him at the end of their top 100 lists at #100 and #98 respectively. 13 starts in and he's done well. 3.50 ERA (3.48 FIP) over 69 ⅓ innings. Almost a strikeout per inning and only 1.9 walks per nine for a 0.966 WHIP. In terms of results, it's very similar to Joe Ryan except Miller throws harder. He's a fastball/slider guy and he throws the fastball around 68% of the time. That should bode well for the Twins hitters if he misses with any of those fastball.
The Twins scored five, ten, and again five runs versus the lowly A's. Nice signs for the batters but it's the A's. The Mariners' staff is actually better than average (4.2 runs/game versus average of 4.6 runs/game). So the Twins scoring six and then ten runs is nice to see. Tonight will be the real test of this series with Castillo and his 2.96 ERA / 3.92 FIP. He's really good.
March is making his second career MLB start. His first was against the Dodgers and it did not go so well, giving up five runs in four innings. Checking his minor league numbers and while he had decent strikeout (11.4 K/9) and walk (3.9 BB/9) numbers, the ERA was not decent at 5.72 over 245 ⅓ innings, mostly in AA. He's 25 but was drafted in 2019 so lost his first year of MiLB development in 2020. Expect all three true outcomes today as the Twins get a tiny buffer in the "above .500" category.
Day game! All the better to make this a forgettable game.
Kenta Maeda
vs
Kolby Allard
Allard makes his season, and (second) Braves, debut. The Braves reaquired him in exchange for Odorizzi this past offseason. Allard was a first round draft pick, has a career 6.07 ERA (139 ERA- and 124 FIP-), and throws from the *checks notes* left side. He checks off every Jeremy attribute.
The Twins have by far the most strikeouts of any team. Atlanta ranks second in strikeouts per nine (9.64 K/9), a tiny bit ahead of the Marlins (9.57) and Twins (9.56). Out of all qualified pitchers, Strider ranks first in strikeout percentage (39.0%). Pablo López is a distant fifth at merely 30.1%. Joe Ryan is twelfth at 27.4%. If you go by K/9, Strider is at 14.5. There is no one in the 13s or 12s. Ohtani leads the way in the 11s at 11.8. Strider strikes out a ton of batters. Today is a good day for the Twins to shorten up those swings.
The Twins have really optimized this team. Rather than waiting until September to play poorly, they now moved it up to June. The starters were second in ERA in the AL for April and fourth in May. So far in June, they are 13th. The relievers have been slightly more consistent, moving from eleventh to seventh to ninth. Scoring has gone from sixth to eleventh for May and June. It's not good.
Well that was a fun ending. Let's do it again, except score those runs earlier and maybe allow the Brewers score several fewer.
Continuing the odd scheduling for this series, after the Twins successfully sold over 34 thousand tickets for a Tuesday night game, now how many can they sell for a nooner against the Brewers?
Twins with the unexpected chance to go 3-3 on the road trip to the AL East. They have already notched three runs against Gausman, who has continued his success from the previous two season.
