Tag Archives: Doom and Gloom

GAMES 8 & 9 – Minnesota Wild v. More of Canada (at home this time)

Two home games in a row!  Maybe this will be what the Wild need to start playing better hockey?  One certainly hopes so.

The Canadiens are fresh off a thoroughly dominating performance against the Wild in Montreal where they won 4-0 and crushed the Wild on scoring chances, shots on goal, and just hockey in general.  Boudreau started Stalock in that one, but I'm very doubtful that he's going to be the answer.

If we learned anything over the 3-game Canada trip, it's that the Wild are maybe a little better than the worst teams in the league (Ottawa), but really just can't hang with the good teams (at least for now).

I said in my first Whangdoodle of the year that the Wild need to weather the first 30 games where they will spend so much time on the road:

The schedule is brutal, but if the Wild are around 12-15 wins after that first 30 game stretch, they get a ton of home games over December, January and February (23 home games compared to 9 road games) and they may be able to make some hay there.

So far they are 1-5 on the road and 0-1 at home.  In order to truly say they "weathered" this first bit, they need to start winning some of these home games and figure out a way to steal some on the road.

I'm getting skeptical that this is a reasonable hope.  The HockeyStats that started the year maybe suggesting that the Wild were unlucky have started to stabilize around a different story (from MoneyPuck).

Welcome to the bad and boring quadrant.  If you choose expected goals instead of CORSI, the picture looks pretty much the same. The Wild haven't been lucky, but they also haven't been good.

 

 

 

GAME 1 – Minnesota Wild v. Nashville Predators

Hey, hockey season starts today!  And the Wild are on national TV, so I might just watch it.

**MLB postseason drowns out all hockey talk**

It's always great to be at the start of a season and have that sense of unbridled optimism that comes with it, right? Just ask the USA Today and their points projection for the upcoming year.

Oh, God.

All is not lost.  The Wild may play in the Group of Death for an entire 82 game season, and they may start the season with 20 of their first 30 games on the road, and they may still be built around an aging core of players, they may still be one of the few teams in the league to rely heavily on a single goalie, and that goalie may be one who has declined each of the last two years .... I forgot where I was going with this.

Matt Dumba is back!  Maybe Greenway and Fiala and Donato will break out this year!

**someone whispers something about Joel Eriksson Ek**

Anyway.  Things are not as bad as all that.  The Wild are a good defensive team, with their #1 D-man back in the lineup.  If they get any kind of decent scoring together, they will be in the playoff mix.  And, in fact, most projections put them right there.  The Athletic's projection system (by Dom Luszczyszyn ) puts the Wild's playoff odds at 59% before the season opener.

I'll take it.

Sean Tierney collected a whole bunch of points projections into one place and it's clear that most people see the Wild as an 85-93 point team (USA Today excepted).

What do I think?  I read Russo's piece about the new culture of positivity in the Wild locker room and came away unconvinced.  Most of the quotes sounded like a team in denial at worst, or putting a brave face on at best.  The schedule is brutal, but if the Wild are around 12-15 wins after that first 30 game stretch, they get a ton of home games over December, January and February (23 home games compared to 9 road games) and they may be able to make some hay there. I'm definitely in wait and see mode with this team, I am certainly not optimistic that they will follow the Twins example and look like world beaters.

But! There is a way forward for the team, and Matt Dumba might just be a reason to watch all by himself if he can replicate last year and stay on the ice the entire season.

I would bet on them topping 90 points before I would bet on them not reaching 70.

**Reminder: find a pithy quote about how useless the USA Today is for the end of this thing**