A History Lesson

On Sept.  21, 2010, the Twins defeated the Indians 6-4 (with reliever Glen Perkins pitching the eighth inning to earn the win) to clinch their second consecutive AL Central title.  Then next day, they played a meaningless game with the division wrapped up and no chance for them to improve their playoff position. After having played in Game 163 the previous two seasons, that meant the Twins had played in 477 consecutive meaningful games over three seasons.

Since then, the Twins have gone 132-203 (132-206 if you count the three-game sweep in the ALDS).  In these past two seasons, the Twins have played six games in which they were higher than fourth place in the standings, and two of those were on Opening Day and none came after Game 4 of the season. After three seasons of wild rides, the Twins gave their fans almost no hope after May of the last two seasons (although a couple of hot weeks in June of 2011 did stir a little hope for another Twins comeback).

So, there is no sugar coating it. This has been a cesspool of waste with too many blowout losses and long losing streaks. So, what happens now? Surely, a rebuilding process will be taking place.

Don't count on it.

Check out the history of this team and you'll realize the Twins rarely choose to rebuild, even though they have been a classic "small-market" team, at least their revenues have been small-market even if their actual market has not thanks to the craptastic Metrodome and the truly awful deal the Twins got when it was built.

The Twins have never really gone through a rebuilding process in which the team trades away multiple core veteran players for top prospects. The Twins have gone completely young with a bunch of inexperienced players only twice: just after the Metrodome was built and after Paul Molitor retired following the 1998 season. Both times the Twins pretty much had no choice but to go young, since they were going to lose a ton of games anyways. Both times, letting the youngsters play eventually led to success as the core of the first rebuild led the Twins to a world championship in 1987 (although 1988 was the only other winning season for that squad and they never really threatened the A's that year) and the second rebuild was the core for three consecutive division titles and four straight winning seasons.

However, the Twins have shown that less drastic measures can have excellent results that usually lead to quicker turnarounds. For example, the 1991 Twins were the first team to win the World Series after finishing in last place the previous season. They did not make any trades of veteran core players to do it, but instead added through free agency (Jack Morris, Chili Davis, Carl Willis, Mike Paliarulo), trading minor leaguers (Steve Bedrosian) and promoting minor leaguers (Knoblauch). None of these moves were considered dramatic or exciting, but all had significant impacts on the team.

More recently, the Twins in 2008 were coming off their first losing season under Ron Gardenhire and had lost two core players in Johan Santana (trade before final year of contract) and Torii Hunter (free agent). The Twins were plenty young in 2008, but they did not trade any other veterans, instead adding through free agency (Livan Hernandez, Mike Lamb, Adam Everett) and trading from perceived depth to fill a perceived hole (Garza-Bartlett for Delmon-Harris). Despite the disappointing results from these moves, the Twins stayed in contention right to Game 163 when a certain Hall of Famer ended their season. Most of the additions came through minor leaguers moving up (Span, Casilla, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn) and veterans returning to form (Mauer, Morneau) or even having career years (Punto).

So, I really don't see the Twins doing anything extreme to get young, like trading Willingham or Mauer. Hopefully, they'll use the payroll space they have cleared to make more smart signings like they did with Willingham and even Carroll.  Hopefully, the Twins will sign a good starting pitcher to head the staff for the next three or four years, and hopefully it will be someone under the radar like Willingham was last year. I also expect a trade of an outfielder or Morneau to clear room for Parmelee and bring in more pitching or a middle infielder. If this is done early in the offseason, it will probably give fans an idea of how aggressive the Twins will be for 2013. If they trade Morneau, they're most likely looking to 2014 to really contend. If they trade Revere, they are going for it now. If they trade Span, well, they probably don't know which way they are going and they better get a whole lot back or it could be a long time before this winter of discontent is over for Twins fans.

4 thoughts on “A History Lesson”

  1. Alternate Universe: Staff made up of rebuilt arms (Baker, Gibson, et. al.) lead the Twins to a big division lead, but are all shut down for the year in September.

  2. Thanks for the perspective Socal - I'm very interested (as always) to see what they do this off-season.

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