February 26, 2013: Aging

I guess I'm getting to the age where my friends start talking a little more about their embarrassing-sounding health problems online. It seems like everyone's going through stuff I can do without.

97 thoughts on “February 26, 2013: Aging”

  1. Yeah, I have this friend who won't stop talking about his oncoming Alzheimers. The other day he even forgot to take the tag off of his new pants.

    1. In response to the CoC, or something else? Either way, I agree. One friend of mine is constantly getting defensive when someone challenges her loud, crude, and non-reasoned political statements. Her response is always something like "This is MY wall! How dare you!!!!!" Someone then has to remind her that when she types stuff like that, it shows up on everyone's feed. If she doesn't want to talk about it, nobody's forcing her.

    2. I agree.

      Is it just me, or is Facebook being overrun by the people that are on their multiple times per day with the minutia (sp?) Of their lives and the "normal" people aren't using it as much? I don't know if it is the Facebook algorithms or if people have just gotten bored with it.

      1. I don't know about most other people, or if I can even be called normal or not, but I never, ever post statuses. The day I post a status will be the day meat "likes" something. I've also pretty much blocked over half the people I know because their updates were so ridiculous that it pained me to even read them. So yeah, I think Facebook is getting to be like every thing else on the internet that has been around too long with the added bonus of proving that, even with anonymity stripped away, people are still completely insane online.

        1. I use it almost solely to update my status, but it's a rare thing I post anything real. I use it as a tool to make my friends laugh, and that's about it.

            1. *looks questioningly at cheaps. considers exhibiting suicidal rage on BoF. Opts for status update about cats and bowel movements*

              1. Heh, I admit I click on your links. I think I even commented, once or twice, when it was about beer.

          1. Speaking of your status updates, will you be coming to MN for that upcoming wedding? Caucus?

            1. I will most assuredly not miss my brother's wedding (I expect he'll ask me to be in it, but I'm not sure if he'll stick to friends or what), but it's either this fall or next, so I'll figure that out later.

          2. Yeah, I try to make folk laugh.
            I update family about kids.
            I feel less disassociated with old friends and thus don't have to go out to drinks with them that often.

        2. The day I post a status will be the day meat "likes" something.

          I'm glad that my position on liking things is this well known. My work here is done.

      2. I'm bored with it.

        I don't post updates unless it's a link to something funny or interesting, like when you guys showed me The Oatmeal or those Calvin & Hobbes in the real world images. Even then, there's rarely a comment with the post.

        Typically, the only other time I use it is to connect with someone I haven't seen in a long time (former college roommate that I'd lost track of or the mailing address of someone who has moved), or to share pictures & comments with close friends and family. I also "like" pictures and comments with varying frequency.

        1. I spend way too much time on it, but it has allowed me to reconnect with a lot of people from Spamtown and others on the cheap. Also, cat videos.

    3. I know I've mentioned it before, but one of my cousins just finished writing a book about abortion. She posts news articles on her wall approximately ten to fifteen times a day and it's just beyond annoying. The only reason I don't block it is because once every week or two, she posts a great nugget about how awful* of a parent she is and it completely cracks me up and makes it all worthwhile.

      *Note, she doesn't need to have her children taken away or anything, but she's just absolutely clueless about how the rest of the world perceives her children.

  2. a PMac article about Morneau
    maybe because all the chatter amongst Twins fans/message boards is that the Twins should trade Morneau to get younger, or maybe because he had been injured for 3 seasons now, but it kind of shocked me that in the article it says that Morneau is only 31 years old.

    1. When he signed this contract, I was worried about whether they'd be able to sign him again when it was over. So, yeah, things can change, but if he's healthy, he should be in line for another rather nice payday.

    2. I feel like 31 is pretty old for Morneau. He's got decent contact skills (that is, he manages to hit for a decent average despite a modestly above-average walk rate), but he still seems like the type of slugger that doesn't age gracefully. For every Jim Thome (who is in a different class than Morneau) who can slug his way to old age with no defensive contributions, there are a dozen Richie Sexsons who hit the wall in their early 30s. (Age 31 was Sexson's last productive season, and he was retired by age 34.)

      Kent Hrbek's actually not a bad comp for Morneau:

      .280/.351/.492, 123 OPS+, 15.4% SO%, 9.7% BB% -- Morneau through age 31
      .289/.369/.490, 132 OPS+, 11.2% SO%, 11.2% BB% -- Hrbek through age 31

      Hmmm, Hrbek actually turned out to be better than Morneau by a bigger margin than I'd thought--a 10% better OPS+, significantly better strikeout rate and marginally better walk rate. Anyway, Hrbek and Morneau are in the same ballpark through age 31, and this is what Hrbek did age 32-34:

      .289/.369/.490, 132 OPS+, 11.2% SO%, 11.2% BB% -- Hrbek through age 31
      .250/.356/.433, 112 OPS+, 11.2% SO%, 14.2% BB% -- Hrbek age 32-34

      Basically a 15% drop in his OPS+, though remarkably he was able to keep his strikeout rate constant and improve his walk rate. If Morneau's OPS+ dips by 15%, it basically puts him at a 105 OPS+. Personally, I haven't ever been that impressed by his defense, and noting that he appeared at DH 25% of the time last year, a number that only figures to increase as time goes on, I don't see him with any appreciable defensive value going forward. Someone will overpay him--the Twins should let him walk after the season.

      I don't think he has any real trade value left (maybe at the deadline if he has a big first half), so it's completely reasonable to see what they can get out of him this year--hopefully he goes out with a bang rather than a whimper.

      1. I'm optimistically cutting Morneau some slack because the concussion issues (a) robbed him of half of what was playing out to be his career year and (b) clearly affected his age-30 season as well.

        During 2006-09, Morneau averaged 292/364/516, 132 OPS+ (ages 25-28). Over the same age period, Hrby was 283/368/497 and 132.

        On the other hand, for ages 32-33, Hrbek went 243/357/438 and 117. That's not so attractive.

        1. If anything, I think the concussion problems would make me more pessimistic about signing him to a big contract. One more knock--maybe even a pretty mild one--and his career could easily be over. I'm unconvinced that he's shaken those problems for good.

          1. I'm with you, particularly with what we know now.

            I had a major concussion (I know they're all "major," but this is how it was characterized) when I was 12, and I had depression problems and suicidal bouts for years. My equilibrium didn't come back fully for a few years. Therapists went to great lengths to find the source of my depression for years before one finally asked me a question about concussions.

            I'm off the rails, but all I'm saying is that, given what I know, even "mild" concussion problems would scare me off from an athlete if I was a GM. They change your life.

      2. I wish I had more ability to control the filters in Play Index, but here's a rough population for Morneau consisting of 35 players since 1961. Morneau has 19.7 rWAR, which puts him a hair behind Wes Parker for #23.

        Now doing what I wanted with that list: how those players fared from 32-34. It doesn't look good. An average of 4.4 rWAR and a median of 4.4 rWAR.

        1. That seems like a pretty good list of comps. Probably worth noting is that the top two on the age 32-34 performance list were on drugs. Of course, that doesn't exclude Morneau from choosing that path...

          If Morneau had the least bit of athleticism and could play an average 3B or corner OF, I could see keeping him around as a part-time player. (He's got huge platoon splits, too, which would be all the more reason to use him in a part-time role.) Maybe even if teams still carried 10 pitchers instead of 12-13, you could find space for a lefty platoon 1B/DH/PH on the bench, but that's not going to happen any time soon.

      3. I say 'only 31' because Morneau has been with the Twins forever. Drafted in 1999 and came up as a 23 year old in 2003

        historically, the way the Twins have churned over their roster Morneau is a rarity. His 1151 games played is 10th alltime (Killebrew, Puckett, Hrbek, Oliva, Carew, Gaetti, Allison, Hunter, Randy Bush. Morneau passed Smalley's 1148 late last year)

        The way he gets talked about, it just feels like he is 36 and washed up and Twins fans/brass hope to get a marginal low-A ball 'prospect' and some salary relief for a guy how probably has a few decent seasons left.

        edit add: perhaps its just me being a bit sentimetal for a guy who seems like he loves playing with the Twins and was part of some great and likeable teams.

        1. Sure, I wasn't meaning to really disagree with you or be argumentative. I just took your comment as a launching off point for my thoughts on what I think Morneau is going to do in the future. I'm not sure I would have guessed his age correctly, either.

          Part of me would enjoy seeing Morneau around in a part-time role, but with the short bench and the nature of free agency (someone out there is almost certainly going to overpay him if he shows anything at all this year), I'm resigned to this as Morneau's last season with the Twins.

          1. oh no, Im not being argumentative, just explaining myself a little more. Or maybe being a bit repetitive.

      4. I gotta say, baseball discussions like this one are a big part of why I started coming here in the first place. I'm a Mountie fan and look forward to a healthy season for him; probably would have advocated for an extension if pressed. I'm thinking now that a qualified offer for a shot at the draft pick or, if he has a crazy first-half, a trade makes more sense. Thanks for the info gentlemen.

        1. Being realistic isn't always fun, but it typically does work as self-preservation. I only feel the pain from trades nowadays if they're completely unfair, a la Wilson Ramos - Matt Capps.

  3. From an ESPN1500 article-

    For example, in Sunday's intrasquad game, (Danny) Santana, playing shortstop, made an extraordinary backhanded, sprawling stab on a bad-hop ball, then short-hopped first baseman Drew Butera, who was unable to come up with the scoop.

    Butters at first base? It was funny when he pitched, but this just seems like Gardy finding excuses to carry a third catcher. I hope I'm wrong.

    1. Well, starting Butters and having Morneau on the bench would undoubtedly improve his bench options...

    2. I know yesterday LaVelle had mentioned that the Twins had talked to Thome and ol' Jim Jam was still gearing up for the season. I'd like to limit the number of plodding, bat only guys on the team, but I'd take JI

      JIM over Butters 10 times out of 10. Get it done, Terry.

    3. I can believe just about anything when it comes to the Twins and Butera (there is no floor), but the most likely explanation for Butera at first with Danny Santana at SS is that it's spring training and the real first basemen were off doing something else (BP, taking infield somewhere else, etc.) Getting Butera some reps at first base is probably responsible if you're going to have him on the team at all, though having him on the team at all is a questionable proposition.

      1. Trust me, I toned down the post from what my first reaction was. I don't expect it's something that will happen in a real game, but I couldn't help but be a little unnerved when I saw it.

        I'm hoping he's getting ready to play first base for Team Italy.

        1. I believe you. Butera is endlessly frustrating--it was obvious since they dealt for him that he wouldn't hit. His upside was Henry Blanco's career 69 OPS+. What he's done so far has been arguably worse than his minor league numbers would suggest. There must be pitchers who hit as well as he does. I know it's hard to find catchers, and I'm sure he does some things right on defense, but Butera 4 figures to be one of the summer's most terrible horror films.

      1. I believe Hardball Talk has a Yankee-centric mandate (I'm not kidding). They'll write fluff, but ONLY about the Yankees or Red Sox. At least, that was my read on the situation back when I was there regularly.

        1. Yeah, that's not really true. The Twins actually probably had the most written about them back when Aaron still had some semblance of caring about his blog.

          Edit: The first sentence is rather combative. I would disagree there's a directive to write about any team. Craig has noted in the past he's been accused of hating on a particular team by every single fanbase. If there's more articles about a particular team, it is almost always because there's news about that team.

          1. I decided to count today's front page. In order from newest to oldest: Angels, Mets, Phillies/Braves, Yankees (Pos's piece), Yankees, Dontrelle Willis (Cubs I guess), MLBPA, Indians, Giants, Mets, Fan Cave (M. Cabrera/A. Jones), Yankees (Craig's take on Youk), Hank Aaron, Marlins, Canseco, Angels, Yankees, Dodgers, Mets.

          2. yeah, i'd agree with that statement. the red sox had pretty unfavorable coverage all of last year, and i don't recall much yankee love either. as sean said, since they're basing their work on other writers, there's a lot more content for such teams, so maybe that accounts for higher focus.

          3. If you say that's not true, I believe you. I followed it "regularly" for a very short time.

            I'm not saying the HBT was ever PRO-Yankee - only that they focused on the team. Essentially, what I'm saying is: if a Yankee had a headache or a woman problem, there was a story. For other teams, it had to actually be baseball-related.

            And I stress, once again, that my sample size was fairly small.

            1. I will admit that I don't actually read more than about a quarter of the stories, though I do read the headlines and summary for most. Right now is also prime time for fluff pieces. I'm sure there are days where it's all one team (the Biogenesis story must have generated aleph-zero Yankees stories) but I think it averages out mostly.

    1. That's pretty cool - by the time you get to "Ob-La-Di, Ob-La-Da", it sounds the way I imagine it sounding if projected into space and heard while standing on the moon.

      1. Yeah, that's a good description of that portion. I thought it was something like what you might hear as you enter a high school for a dance in 1968, as the echoes bounce off the tiled halls leading to the band singing in a far-off gymnasium.

            1. Back in my day, we didn't have any of that fancy overdubbing or multi-tracking. We had mono, and not the kissing kind, AND WE LIKED IT. Now,

    2. I don't see why he needed 100 pressings. Since he put it together digitally, couldn't he have used one pressing on 100 players?
      Or did he use the same player? Or was this written and I missed it?

      I'll listen if he ever does side 4, with the "Revolution"s.

      I always thought this sounded like the hallways outside a school dance:
      But then they played ABBA at our dances. Always such a downer.
      (PS. So much better without Vox)

  4. I perhaps expect to much of my fellow man, but I find it mind boggling that at 30 years old I have to share a rest room with people who are not housebroken.

    1. The short people living in my house seem to have become much better at using the potty over the last couple years. You must mean adults that aren't housebroken, yeah?

  5. Eddie Rosario hits a home run in the top of the 7th and then starts a double play in the bottom of the 7th.

  6. "Well, Tonkin just threw the living fire out of it," Gardenhire said

    Gotta love those spring traditions. LOL!

      1. Agreed! DVR'd the Gophers game and finished it up just in time to change over to the Wild with about 14 minutes to go in the 3rd. What a satisfying way to end the MN sports-viewing evening!

        dw - you should predict losses and OT losses with more frequency!

  7. Double OT in Miami. Kings played 53 great minutes, but are collapsing here in the second extra.

    BTW, I need a pinch hitter again for first Monday. I go under the knife tomorrow morning.

    1. I don't believe I've seen what you and your surgeon have got planned. If I have, I've forgotten. Hope all goes well.

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