Just saw this. This makes me an even bigger Rockies fan now.
Interestingly (or not), that's about what the Marlins will be paying for Saltalamacchia to play catcher (3 years, $21 million).
Morneau is one of my all time favorite players, but a two year contract seems like a lot (edited for clarification)
I don't know that it's been updated to reflect Morneau's new home ballpark, but Steamer has him at .276/.345/.461 with a .185 ISO in just over 550 PA, good for all of 0.9 WAR in 2014. Seems like a massive overpay to me. I don't have any idea what the Rockies are trying to do, and I wonder if they do, either.
Just roughly speaking, if we wanted to play the "what if Morneau was never concussed" game, a guess at his 2010 fWAR could be in the 6.1 fWAR range, which would put him at 6.1/3.2/3.2 going into 2011. A 5/4/3 weighting would project his 2011 as 4.4 fWAR. Declining 0.5 fWAR/year would put him at:
So that's about as optimistic as you could get for 2014/2015, which would frankly make this contract a bargain. Personally, and especially in light of the concussion problems, I'd treat 2010 as an outlier. It'd make more sense to me to project (going into 2011 with no concussion), something like:
If market rate is $5M/win, the Rox paid for about 2.6 wins over 2 years, and wouldn't be too far off of a projection like that. It really seems more like a 2-year gamble that he'll have a 2-win+ season in '14 or '15. As an NL team, I'd worry about his complete lack of defensive ability, but he could have limited value as a pinch hitter. (Limited in that he has fairly extreme platoon splits--almost .200 OPS for his career.)
If you wanted to use a 5/4/3 weighting of his last 3 seasons, it comes to 0.3 fWAR for 2014 and probably about replacement level in 2015. Even bumping his -0.7 fWAR in 2011 to zero, the projection would only move to 0.4 fWAR. I guess that's more where I see his value going forward, but he's obviously been better than that at times in the past.
I think any assessment of this signing also has to account for the Rockies being forced to keep Cuddyer in right field. He's passable at first, but has been a mediocre outfielder for a few years now, and he's only likely to get worse as he ages and keeps playing in that massive outfield at Coors.
Batting Title!
Morneau clearly likes cuddii's brand of leadership more than joe's.
Or his own? Why didn't we ever hear anyone criticizing Morneau's leadership these last several years?
Because you can't cut on the guy with a concussion...especially when his club's leadership goes out of their way to call it a brain injury, highlight his involvement in youth sports where hits and concussions are common and give mediots access to the guy to show how hard he's working to get back.
Ack! 2 feet of snow on the Northshore just calling my name for a first-of-the-season snowshoe trek and it looks like a high of -2 on Saturday. This guy is too old to snowshoe in below zero weather first time out. Hopefully the next weekend is a little warmer... but man 2 feet of fresh snow.....
I was thinking the same thing about the weekend, except several inches vs 2 feet, my backyard vs north shore, sledding vs snowshoeing, and my kids' names vs your name.
we had a hard freeze warning for last night and will again tonight and tomorrow. I watered my orange trees and potted plants thoroughly last night, but am worried about the survival of my navel oranges. On the other hand, a [redacted] rat has eaten about half of them already. What's the point of having a pit bull next door if he can't even kill a rat?
I have no idea how big an orange tree is, can you throw a blanket over the tree?
My trees are both about 20 feet tall.
I think we avoided a "hard" freeze last night, but I'll be watering again this evening in the hopes that the combination of a hydrated tree and humidity from evaporation from the ground will protect the fruit. That, and my navels have pretty thick skins.
I thot they sprayed water on the oranges to freeze to keep them from freezing. Howzat?
that's kind of a desperation move, Bo. Growers usually put big heaters out in the fields. Not an option for me, but I live (barely) in town, so it doesn't get as cold as it does out in the fields. Fingers crossed. It was 34 degrees at 6:45 a.m. this morning. I'm hoping that means that it didn't get below about 30 last night, which would mean my oranges probably are ok.
I laughed. Out loud.
I pretty much HATE winter... but last year the kids were old enough and enthusiastic enough to want to go out and do things in the cold and I really enjoyed it. So I'm looking forward to going ice skating with my daughter again. And sledding and such.
Not shoveling though. Eff that.
That's why you have kids and have them homeschooled.
Shovelling = PhyEd.
Oh, they will shovel. But maybe not at 2 and 5.
Nonsense. I had my daughter out there after the first snow this year, and she's only 2. Of course, she tried to use her bubble mower instead of a shovel and slipped and fell immediately after stepping onto the driveway, but still.
I seem to recall a video of SBG's little helper wielding a pint-sized snow shovel at a young age, too.
See below.
Oh, I've tried. They're TERRIBLE at it.
You know what it takes to whip them into shape?
More yelling!
Works for me. Well, actually it doesn't, but that doesn't stop me from trying!
The 10 and 7.95-year-olds are actually pretty good left to their own strategies, so long as the snow isn't too deep.
They broke two cheap kids' shovels today though.
Too bad, those are great for the deck.
Never too young to start. She was 3 1/2 years old here.
my favorite was the comment by redsoxfan1 complaining about another comment for writing "rain" instead of "reign" and "intensive purpose" instead of "intents and purposes". Because sarcasm and irony in the original.
Red Sox and Yankee fans certainly deserve each other.
I was coming here specifically to comment on the only comment I've seen (since comments sections are for suckers): on Facebook, a Yankee fan friend of mine (yes, I have a couple, regrettably) posted about the deal, calling out the very long contract. A Red Sox fan friend of hers mocked the deal because Ellsbury's BA and fielding percentage were down last year.
A couple of years ago, I wouldn't have been able to resist getting locked in a pointless discussion there.
Facebook is the best, isn't it?
A denouement to my discussion about my daughter yesterday. Last night we went to Culver's night, which is a fund raiser at Culver's for her school. When we got there, a little boy in her class came up to Miss SBG and said, "Let's sit together." He came and sat with us and they had just a grand old time. I thought to myself, well, maybe my fears about her fitting in were overblown. Afterwards, I asked her about this boy and she said, "It started when we were in math enrichment together. And now we play the same games in free play time."
Wait a second... It started...?????
It's started.
Aw.
My daughter was talking about people having boyfriends and loving each other the other day. So yeah. My wife said that she had a "boyfriend" in kindergarten and I remember my first crush was in 1st grade or so. So I guess... but yeah. It's started.
I took the bus to the small-village Catholic School 10 minutes outside New Ulm for 1-4th grades.
Class of 18, 4 were girls. Crushes were slow to show up.
Might have crushed on a girl in 3rd grade when she was in 4th, or maybe I hated her. At least one of those two, if not both, and strongly.
Huh. I heard somewhere that Catholic girls start much too late.
😉
You oughta know by now.
oh he has, and for the longest time
True. For them, it always seems to kick off when you refuse to do what they want. So with my daughter, we're just giving in for now. We didn't start "defy her."
There is a possiblity for one fewer vapid, uninsightful voice on the television coverage next season.
I'll take vapid and uninsightful versus bitter and arrogant, but here's hoping.
I could get used to being snowed in watching a Wednesday EPL match.
Go Everton!
Jozy has scored!
Looks like I picked the right week to swap out Sturridge for Suarez.
Well, I mean, I wasn't necessarily going to prognosticate it, but I was going to expect anything shy of "NFL Quarterback".
I question the assertion that Tebow will draw his "followers" to a pregame show.
I was lead to believe that he was going to have epic adventures in the CFL this autumn...
According to Dave Cameron, the Yanks are going to overpay Jacoby Ellsbury by 40%. He's saying that it's still a good deal because the Yanks have money to burn.
Man, does MLB need a third club in New York.
I could even get behind a cap structure with a limited number of off-cap salaries. For instance, a $145M cap with 3 players per team who can make over $15M but only count $15M against the cap. More than just being able to have a really high payroll, it bothers me that the Yankees already have 5 $20M+ players for next season and 7 $15M+ players. I wouldn't be surprised if Robinson Cano makes it 6 $20M+ players for the Yankees.
It's really too bad the Marlins got that new ballpark.
Wow, Samardzija has a seriously inconsistent minor league resume.
They were talking about this on 1500 tonight. Mackey was saying something like he'd give up Arcia and Rosario or May and Rosario for Samardzija. That seems a bit steep for this guy, but I don't know.
Morneau stays in the NL but moves West.
Just saw this. This makes me an even bigger Rockies fan now.
Interestingly (or not), that's about what the Marlins will be paying for Saltalamacchia to play catcher (3 years, $21 million).
Morneau is one of my all time favorite players, but a two year contract seems like a lot (edited for clarification)
I don't know that it's been updated to reflect Morneau's new home ballpark, but Steamer has him at .276/.345/.461 with a .185 ISO in just over 550 PA, good for all of 0.9 WAR in 2014. Seems like a massive overpay to me. I don't have any idea what the Rockies are trying to do, and I wonder if they do, either.
Just roughly speaking, if we wanted to play the "what if Morneau was never concussed" game, a guess at his 2010 fWAR could be in the 6.1 fWAR range, which would put him at 6.1/3.2/3.2 going into 2011. A 5/4/3 weighting would project his 2011 as 4.4 fWAR. Declining 0.5 fWAR/year would put him at:
4.4 fWAR -- 2011
3.9 fWAR -- 2012
3.4 fWAR -- 2013
2.9 fWAR -- 2014
2.4 fWAR -- 2015
So that's about as optimistic as you could get for 2014/2015, which would frankly make this contract a bargain. Personally, and especially in light of the concussion problems, I'd treat 2010 as an outlier. It'd make more sense to me to project (going into 2011 with no concussion), something like:
3.2 fWAR -- 2011
2.7 fWAR -- 2012
2.2 fWAR -- 2013
1.7 fWAR -- 2014
1.2 fWAR -- 2015
If market rate is $5M/win, the Rox paid for about 2.6 wins over 2 years, and wouldn't be too far off of a projection like that. It really seems more like a 2-year gamble that he'll have a 2-win+ season in '14 or '15. As an NL team, I'd worry about his complete lack of defensive ability, but he could have limited value as a pinch hitter. (Limited in that he has fairly extreme platoon splits--almost .200 OPS for his career.)
If you wanted to use a 5/4/3 weighting of his last 3 seasons, it comes to 0.3 fWAR for 2014 and probably about replacement level in 2015. Even bumping his -0.7 fWAR in 2011 to zero, the projection would only move to 0.4 fWAR. I guess that's more where I see his value going forward, but he's obviously been better than that at times in the past.
I think any assessment of this signing also has to account for the Rockies being forced to keep Cuddyer in right field. He's passable at first, but has been a mediocre outfielder for a few years now, and he's only likely to get worse as he ages and keeps playing in that massive outfield at Coors.
Batting Title!
Morneau clearly likes cuddii's brand of leadership more than joe's.
Or his own? Why didn't we ever hear anyone criticizing Morneau's leadership these last several years?
Because you can't cut on the guy with a concussion...especially when his club's leadership goes out of their way to call it a brain injury, highlight his involvement in youth sports where hits and concussions are common and give mediots access to the guy to show how hard he's working to get back.
Ack! 2 feet of snow on the Northshore just calling my name for a first-of-the-season snowshoe trek and it looks like a high of -2 on Saturday. This guy is too old to snowshoe in below zero weather first time out. Hopefully the next weekend is a little warmer... but man 2 feet of fresh snow.....
I was thinking the same thing about the weekend, except several inches vs 2 feet, my backyard vs north shore, sledding vs snowshoeing, and my kids' names vs your name.
we had a hard freeze warning for last night and will again tonight and tomorrow. I watered my orange trees and potted plants thoroughly last night, but am worried about the survival of my navel oranges. On the other hand, a [redacted] rat has eaten about half of them already. What's the point of having a pit bull next door if he can't even kill a rat?
I have no idea how big an orange tree is, can you throw a blanket over the tree?
My trees are both about 20 feet tall.
I think we avoided a "hard" freeze last night, but I'll be watering again this evening in the hopes that the combination of a hydrated tree and humidity from evaporation from the ground will protect the fruit. That, and my navels have pretty thick skins.
I thot they sprayed water on the oranges to freeze to keep them from freezing. Howzat?
that's kind of a desperation move, Bo. Growers usually put big heaters out in the fields. Not an option for me, but I live (barely) in town, so it doesn't get as cold as it does out in the fields. Fingers crossed. It was 34 degrees at 6:45 a.m. this morning. I'm hoping that means that it didn't get below about 30 last night, which would mean my oranges probably are ok.
I laughed. Out loud.
I pretty much HATE winter... but last year the kids were old enough and enthusiastic enough to want to go out and do things in the cold and I really enjoyed it. So I'm looking forward to going ice skating with my daughter again. And sledding and such.
Not shoveling though. Eff that.
That's why you have kids and have them homeschooled.
Shovelling = PhyEd.
Oh, they will shovel. But maybe not at 2 and 5.
Nonsense. I had my daughter out there after the first snow this year, and she's only 2. Of course, she tried to use her bubble mower instead of a shovel and slipped and fell immediately after stepping onto the driveway, but still.
I seem to recall a video of SBG's little helper wielding a pint-sized snow shovel at a young age, too.
See below.
Oh, I've tried. They're TERRIBLE at it.
You know what it takes to whip them into shape?
More yelling!
Works for me. Well, actually it doesn't, but that doesn't stop me from trying!
The 10 and 7.95-year-olds are actually pretty good left to their own strategies, so long as the snow isn't too deep.
They broke two cheap kids' shovels today though.
Too bad, those are great for the deck.
Never too young to start. She was 3 1/2 years old here.
httpv://youtu.be/0paifc8qcgI httpv://youtu.be/Bkg6QKZJcyc
That's the kind of thing that makes me hope I'll be able to be a dad.
and that's the kind of stuff that will be coming out at a wedding someday, hopefully.
Word to the wise, if'n ever you find yourself in need of an upper endoscopy, ask for "lots of drugs" because it's pretty much the best.
If they use the same drugs as colonoscopies, #winning!
Looks like there's a new trader in town.
(*Warning: Twitter Language)
my favorite was the comment by redsoxfan1 complaining about another comment for writing "rain" instead of "reign" and "intensive purpose" instead of "intents and purposes". Because sarcasm and irony in the original.
Red Sox and Yankee fans certainly deserve each other.
I was coming here specifically to comment on the only comment I've seen (since comments sections are for suckers): on Facebook, a Yankee fan friend of mine (yes, I have a couple, regrettably) posted about the deal, calling out the very long contract. A Red Sox fan friend of hers mocked the deal because Ellsbury's BA and fielding percentage were down last year.
A couple of years ago, I wouldn't have been able to resist getting locked in a pointless discussion there.
Facebook is the best, isn't it?
A denouement to my discussion about my daughter yesterday. Last night we went to Culver's night, which is a fund raiser at Culver's for her school. When we got there, a little boy in her class came up to Miss SBG and said, "Let's sit together." He came and sat with us and they had just a grand old time. I thought to myself, well, maybe my fears about her fitting in were overblown. Afterwards, I asked her about this boy and she said, "It started when we were in math enrichment together. And now we play the same games in free play time."
Wait a second... It started...?????
It's started.
Aw.
My daughter was talking about people having boyfriends and loving each other the other day. So yeah. My wife said that she had a "boyfriend" in kindergarten and I remember my first crush was in 1st grade or so. So I guess... but yeah. It's started.
I took the bus to the small-village Catholic School 10 minutes outside New Ulm for 1-4th grades.
Class of 18, 4 were girls. Crushes were slow to show up.
Might have crushed on a girl in 3rd grade when she was in 4th, or maybe I hated her. At least one of those two, if not both, and strongly.
Huh. I heard somewhere that Catholic girls start much too late.
😉
You oughta know by now.
oh he has, and for the longest time
True. For them, it always seems to kick off when you refuse to do what they want. So with my daughter, we're just giving in for now. We didn't start "defy her."
There is a possiblity for one fewer vapid, uninsightful voice on the television coverage next season.
I'll take vapid and uninsightful versus bitter and arrogant, but here's hoping.
I could get used to being snowed in watching a Wednesday EPL match.
Go Everton!
Jozy has scored!
Looks like I picked the right week to swap out Sturridge for Suarez.
Suarez had a ridiculous goal
I've forgotton to change my lineup for two consecutive weeks because of the holiday. To quote Pete Campbell: "Not good, Bob."
That Fellaini vs. Pinnear header mismatch was amusing.
How in the world has ManU not scored here?
two or three goalposts
OVIEDO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
that was a fun possession.
Indeed, a post and switching the field several times.
Did anyone else see Lukaku just about cave Smalling's chest in with a rocket from the top of the circle?
that was a thunderous kick
Lukaku looks like a tight end compared to the rest of the soccer players on the pitch
I don't know the last time I saw a defender stagger backwards like that.
The video isn't as smooth as I'd like (the wifi here isn't the greatest) but here is a clip
[video src="http://www.acm006.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/k.mp4" /]
stupid question: it is required that every EPL fanbase sings "When the Saints Go Marching In"?
Don't forget "Hey Jude"
Bidding war for Tebow. It's football, but perhaps not what you were expecting.
Well, I mean, I wasn't necessarily going to prognosticate it, but I was going to expect anything shy of "NFL Quarterback".
I question the assertion that Tebow will draw his "followers" to a pregame show.
I was lead to believe that he was going to have epic adventures in the CFL this autumn...
According to Dave Cameron, the Yanks are going to overpay Jacoby Ellsbury by 40%. He's saying that it's still a good deal because the Yanks have money to burn.
Man, does MLB need a third club in New York.
I could even get behind a cap structure with a limited number of off-cap salaries. For instance, a $145M cap with 3 players per team who can make over $15M but only count $15M against the cap. More than just being able to have a really high payroll, it bothers me that the Yankees already have 5 $20M+ players for next season and 7 $15M+ players. I wouldn't be surprised if Robinson Cano makes it 6 $20M+ players for the Yankees.
It's really too bad the Marlins got that new ballpark.
Steve Aschburner sums up the Timberwovles entire franchise with Timberwolves’ History, A Tale of 5 Kevins
Git 'er done, Terry.
Wow, Samardzija has a seriously inconsistent minor league resume.
They were talking about this on 1500 tonight. Mackey was saying something like he'd give up Arcia and Rosario or May and Rosario for Samardzija. That seems a bit steep for this guy, but I don't know.