Part 1 -- Game Details
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Atlanta Braves 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 8 1
Minnesota Twins 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 x 3 4 1
PITCHERS: ATL - Glavine
MIN - Tapani, Aguilera (9)
WP - Kevin Tapani
LP - Tom Glavine
SAVE - Rick Aguilera
HOME RUNS: ATL - none
MIN - Davis, Leius
Part 2 -- Stars of the Game, WPA Style
Kevin Tapani: 33.5 %
Scott Leius: 16.8 %
Rick Aguilera: 16.7 %
Chili Davis: 11.1 %
Terry Pendleton: 10.1 %
Tapani was great like he was all year. And Scott Leius took part in what was an amazing playoffs (WPA wise) for the Twins third basemen.
Part 3 -- The Best First Baseman Tom Kelly's Ever Seen
That's an actual paraphrased quote about Kent Hrbek, at least according to the World Series broadcasters. Hilariously, they mention that Kelly said this about Hrbek mere seconds before he pulled Gant off first base. Hrbek must be the best ever if he could get away with that play.
Let's quickly get that play out of the way. I've seen the replay a zillion times. Hrbek pulled on Gant's leg. Would Gant's momentum have taken him off regardless? I put the chance of that at ten percent. What's more hilarious, however, is that the booth decided to patch in the director of major league umpires to get his opinion on Drew Coble's call. He defended the call. Shocking, I know.
Getting back to Hrbek's defense. Not only do Buck and McCarver quote Kelly as saying Hrbek's the best fielding first baseman he ever saw, they trumpet his fielding several times throughout the series, even going so far as to call him the best in the league at that time. So why don't we look at the fielding metrics for 1991.
Total Zone Runs as 1B
1. Quintana (8)
2. Mattingly (6)
3. Olerud (6)
4. Stubbs (3)
5. Benzinger (3)
Range Factor/9 Innings
1. Joyner (10.42)
2. Stubbs (10.33)
3. Hrbek (10.25)
4. Milligan (10.08)
5. Fielder (9.88)
Fielding Percentage
1. O'Brien (.997)
2. Clark (.997)
3. McGwire (.997)
4. Olerud (.996)
5. Mattingly (.996)
Hrbek doesn't fare too bad at range factor, though Total Runs is almost certainly a better measure. In 1991, he had exactly zero, which would suggest he was a perfectly average first baseman that year. But let's take a look at the bigger picture. Looking at Total Runs over the course of his career.
1984 was a great year for Hrbek. He finished 2nd in MVP voting (way, way higher than he should have; also, Ripken was robbed). He compiled a WAR of 5.6, really solid. Not as good as Mattingly or Murray, but good. He was also a stellar fielder that year. He compiled .4 wins for his first base defense, which is pretty high for that position. He also had 12 total zone runs above average, a great number that lead all first basemen. In 1984, if someone said Hrbek was the league's best first baseman, they'd have a case. It would be hard to argue he's better than Keith Hernandez, but he'd have an argument.
After 1984, no such argument exists. He did okay in 1985, with 3 total runs, but he was average the next three years, had a great year in 1989 again (8 runs), but then in 1990 he was 7 runs below average. At the end of 1991, Hrbek had compiled 17 total zone runs. He would finish his career with 16 total zone runs.
That number isn't awful by any means, and puts Hrbek 52nd all-time among first basemen. By comparison, Keith Hernandez is the all-time leader with 120 runs, which is otherworldly. Hernandez was retired by 1991, and Olerud was just beginning his great career. But there's one person you may have heard of that was a contemporary of Hrbek's who was okay with the glove: Don Mattingly. He compiled 33 total zone runs, committed fewer errors than Hrbek, and had about the same range factor. Wally Joyner was probably better than both of them. Eddie Murray has an argument as well.
With those big names on the table, why was there so much insistence that Hrbek was this amazing first baseman? The best explanation I can think of is that Hrbek did not have an athletic looking body. He was no Prince Fielder, but he didn't look like a guy who would make dazzling plays. Ty Cobb famously said that Babe Ruth ran pretty well for a fat guy. Well, Hrbek played first base pretty well for a fat guy. He was never a liability there, except perhaps in 1994, when he hurt a lot of his career numbers with some bad play.
Just for kicks, I decided to compare Hrbek's numbers to those many would say is the best Twins fielding first baseman ever, Doug Mientkiewicz.
Fielding Percentage
H: .994
M: .996
Range Factor/9
H: 9.73
M: 9.41
Total Zone Runs Saved
H: 16 in 13,659 innings
M: 10 in 7635 innings
I did not expect that.
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