I figured I should write at least something on my obsession with the Twins home run record chase, but before I do, I would like to point out that the Twins staff has only allowed 195 homers this year. That's second in the AL behind Tampa, who just allowed one to the Yanks in two games.  In fact, let's look at the AL playoff teams (as of Wednesday):

Rays: 177
Twins: 195
A's: 200
Indians: 200
Astros: 226
Yankees: 244

So the Yankees have barely scored more than the Twins, give up way more homers, and have a worse ERA+.  So why have the Yankees been better?  The Yankees have given up 45 unearned runs. The Twins, 74.  Eeeg.  If the Twins lose in the playoffs because of their atrocious defense...

Anyway, back to bombas.

The Twins are up two homers with three games to go. Neither team is really playing for anything. For the Yankees to get home field, they'd have to sweep while the Astros get swept. Not likely. So it's reasonable to think both teams will be resting players. The Twins will be matching up Astudillo and Miller and Torreyes with the likes of Romine and Estrada and Wade.  And, honestly, probably Giancarlo Stanton, who needs some reps before the playoffs.  The Twins will likely play Schoop a lot, who if he can do anything it's hit bombs in low-pressure situations.

The Yanks are playing the Rangers, who have given up 17 more homers than the Royals.  The Rangers also play in a more homer friendly park.

Let's look at projected starters and their HR/9:

Rangers: Palumbo (2.6), TBD (?), Lynn (0.9)
Royals: Skoglund (1.5), Sparkman (2.1), Lopez (1.8)

I think I've finally come to the point where I'll be okay if the Twins don't get this record. Clinching the division has helped for sure. Though no promises if the Twins are leading by three homers on Sunday and the Yankees hit four.

Every time I've bitched to nibbish about the Yankees hitting homers, he has replied with "Don't worry, they've got this."


9 thoughts on “Bob-omb!”

  1. They've got this.

    The biggest thing for me was that I hoped that they were the ones to actually break the record, and after they did that, I wanted them to be the first to reach 300. If they can end the year on top, it's gravy to me.

  2. At one point someone (4ltr?) was eyeing the HR Differential record as a possibility for the Twins, but that was when the HR-hitting hit a brick wall and the bullpen hadn't put their Superman cape back on yet.

    The most important Twins HRs yet to come are the postseason bandbox variety, and I hope there are a crapton of them.

      1. Ended at +109. Second was the Dodgers at +94. Third was the Cubs at +61. Yankees and Houston were tied for fourth at +58.
        Standard Deviation (per Excel) was 56.5, so the Twins were at 1.93 St.Deviations.
        Tigers were last at -101, which helped the Twins, but Baltimore was 29th with -92.

        Twins HRs hit were 1.95 St Deviations over average (226, with 41.7 St.Dev)
        Twins HRs allowed were 0.98 St. Deviations below average (226, with 28.5 St.Dev)

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