45 thoughts on “July 8, 2020: Urban Warfare”

                1. Old man, sign ze papers! Vould you like a cigarette? (burning screams). Vy can you not sign ze papers!!?
                  Because you have broken both of my hands...

  1. From my limited experience, Zuru's X-Shot line fires with a lot more force than the standard NERF gun. We had to put those away for a while until my youngest son got a little older--they're fine for the outdoors but there's no way they can be used in our basement.

    But then there's the Mega NERF guns, holy cow they are overpowered. Bigger, heavier darts that fly a lot faster are a recipe for crying children if those make an appearance in battle.

  2. Spoiler SelectShow
  3. My in-laws' hay shed caught on fire last night. The hay inside was apparently still a little wet when baled, and spontaneously combusted. Everyone is safe, the cows were in a different pasture, and the fire department responded well. But one shed is a complete loss, and things are still smoldering (and likely the hay will catch fire again at some point?), and will be for a while, apparently. It was crazy to see that damage up close.

    Anyway, it's been an adventurous 2020, huh?

  4. I'm thoroughly impressed with how well today's photo ties in with the topic.

  5. So...I'm really glad the Twins won't be traveling to Florida any time soon.

    Compare the first peak in Florida to the recent data and the timeline is essentially the same: (these are from the Johns Hopkins 7-day rolling averages)

    1,158 new cases/day -- April 5th, first peak
    51 new deaths/day -- May 8th, first peak

    That's a span of 5 weeks, give or take a couple days. After that peak, cases and deaths went down (deaths specifically were down to 30-35/day in mid-June.) Then cases started rising again in late May.

    1,222 new cases/day -- June 8th (highest 7-day average since April 5th peak)
    48 new deaths/day -- July 7th (most recent available 7-day average)

    That's more or less the same span as the time span between the first time reaching 1,158 cases/day and 51 deaths/day. The latest idea for optimism seems to be: "but now it is younger people and not as many of them will die" -- except if that had been the case for the last four weeks, we'd expect to see it in the data and Florida's death rate today would be lower than the 51/day it was at for its first peak. Even the ratio between the minimum new cases per day the June 8th cases is the same as the ratio of the minimum new deaths per day and the July 7th new deaths per day, and based on those ratios, it wouldn't be so crazy to project 5,800 deaths in Florida over the next 4 weeks, up to a peak of about 345 new deaths/day at the end of that period--and continuing to climb after that if the case rate doesn't stop increasing.

    So basically, the first time around, cases started declining after April 5th and deaths started declining after May 8th. This time around, confirmed cases are still increasing as of July 8th, with a terrible positivity rate, the measures in place to prevent the spread of the virus are less restrictive than those used to suppress the first peak, and there's perfectly good reason to expect new deaths/day to continue to increase for at least the next 4 weeks even if Florida completely shut everything down today. Baseball has taught me generally not to be a pessimistic person, but I don't see how this can end well--for Florida in general or for baseball in Florida in 2020. (And is the NBA still going to play if nearby ICUs are full? That would seem pretty reckless.)

    1. The NBA and MLS (where Dallas was removed before it started because of positive tests) setting up shop in Orlando looks awful, especially since they are likely siphoning testing resources away from what is a terrible situation in the state.

      And who knows how accurate the stats coming from the state are accurate at all, even with them being this bad, with how much effort the Governor has put into keeping results quiet.

      It is all infuriating and sad.

  6. Not satire, not the Onion
    Cleveland Plain-Dealer editorial board member pens editorial complaining that Native Americans really, really do support names like "Redskins" and "Indians" and Chief Wahoo, etc.

    sigh.

    1. The furor in the aftermath of George Floyd’s death has given them that opportunity, and they are not going away

      Sweet Jesus. I’m happy to be the bulldog in this analogy.

  7. Smeltzer's p0wning n00bs.

  8. Phil Mackey opens a can of worms.

    We need some analysis.

    1. I think people in the comments are confusing AAAA guys with "remember these guys" The first AAAA guy I remember was Matt Kinney. Came over in a trade from Boston and was being talked up as a good pitcher and had a good AAA year then stunk up the joint in the majors.

      Overall, I think Mackey makes a solid list.

    2. I can’t abide Casilla as the SS choice—he played four seasons of at least 80 games in the majors, had a peak season of 1.5 fWAR, played 7 times more innings at 2B than at SS. To me he is more of a major league bench guy than a AAAA guy.

      Brendan Harris would be a better pick, though he did have one good year with Tampa, he had a shorter career, faded harder, and SS was actually his primary position.

      Denny Hocking was around forever, but he was worse than Casilla (never had a season above 0.3 fWAR) and played more innings at SS than any other position.

      1. Mackey admitted Casilla was a stretch he justified it by saying there wasn't a lot of other SS to choose from.

    3. Brian Buchanan could be in the conversation for OF.

      Actually, Billy Beane is just about the perfect archetype of a AAAA player and he was with the Twins for two years. From 1984 to 1989, Beane played in AAA and MLB every year, and always had more games in AAA than in MLB. You can’t really be more AAAA than that.

    4. Danny Walton has to be on this roster. Career -2.1 rWAR over almost 900 PA and nine seasons in the majors, but he had nearly 4,000 PA at AAA and hit a pretty robust 276/380/507.

      1. Definitely a AAAA player—similar to Beane, just two years with the Twins, so there is a question of whether or not he should count for a Twins’ AAAA team.

        It’s actually a bit weird to have a single-team AAAA team, since the archetype AAAA guys generally are hopping around from team to team.

          1. Razor Shines is the one who always comes to mind first (though he's not related to the Twins franchise)

            .185/.239/.198 in 88 PA over 4 seasons with Montreal
            .270/.354/.408 in 3,184 PA over 11 seasons in AAA

  9. Very interesting note

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