I updated WordPress to 3.2.1 and Atahualpa (the theme) to 3.6.7. If you notice anything broken*, leave a comment and I'll try to fix it this evening.
* I already know about not being able to rate videos on the video page. You can/should still be able to from the front page.
Francisco Liriano vs Gio Gonzalez
The MLB.com short blurb on each pitcher sounds rather similar:
Lasting just 2 1/3 innings on Sunday, Liriano clearly did not have his best stuff against the Tigers and was unable to battle through it. The lefty gave up four runs on six hits and four walks with three strikeouts.
For the second time in three starts, Gonzalez was unable to get through the fifth, leaving after 4 2/3 innings. He gave up six earned runs on seven hits, including a homer, and struck out five. His 2.67 ERA is still seventh-best in the AL.
Here's to extending Gonzalez's struggles for a third time in four starts.
Max Scherzer vs Brian Duensing
I was hoping to be able to write about the Twins tying the White Sox for third place, but that is going to have to wait until tomorrow. Instead, let's investigate the non-Verlander pitchers. Verlander is 13-5 for the season, but the Tigers are 14-8 in games started by him. Makes sense. Especially since he has yet to throw fewer than 100 pitches in a game this year. He only had three last year and five the year before.
Anyway, that leaves the rest of the Tiger staff at 38-38. Tonight's starter, Scherzer, is only 10-5 but the Tigers are 13-7 in his starts despite his mediocre 4.53 ERA. The offense has also scored 5.2 runs/game for him. Note to Duensing: don't let the Tigers score that many runs. Note to Twins offense: despite Scherzer's ERA, he has a decent FIP and pretty good xFIP, so practice some patience.
Luke Hochevar vs Nick Blackburn
This has to be a perfect way to start the second half for the Twins. First, a warm-up against the Royals. Four games, more than enough to find the mojo and remind everyone about owning the AL Central. Then, taking on the first place Indians with another four game series. After that, yet another four game series against the other first place team, the Tigers.
I had some stuff written about the four consecutive series against AL Central, breaking down some possibilities. Someone decided to steal it for the game recap though. Instead, I'll close with Win Twins!
The last time the Twins have lost a series against Chicago was May 19-21, 2009. There was a two game split on May 11-12, 2010, but there's no doubt the Twins would have won the series if given the chance. Overall, the Twins are .732 against the White Sox from 2009 through today.
Blackburn has done his part this year, abusing the White Sox with a 0.61 ERA in 14.2 innings. His FIP is probably quite ugly though, since he struck out only two while walking five. Could you try to keep the ratio above two one today?
David Price vs Brian Duensing
The good doctor seems to have expended all of his posting energy this morning on the book club.
Yovani Gallardo vs Francisco Liriano
I think the Yankees just own every Midwest team. The Brewers swept the Twins but were then swept by the Yankees. They scored a meager four runs compared to the 22 by the Yankees over the three games. Which leads to somewhat interesting interleague records for the Twins:
Twins away record against the NL: 1-8
Twins home record against the NL: 5-1
Just where the Twins want them. Sweep time!
Ted Lilly vs Brian Duensing
Apparently the Twins decided to compress their 54 wins into large, sparsely distributed batches. At least the Wolves have gotten everyone used to long losing streaks.
Duensing, you're our only hope.
One thing that jumped out at me as I perused Light Rail's B-R page was his strikeout rate: 8.6 K/9. What? It did increase from 7.3 in 2009 to 7.8 in 2010, but I wasn't expecting another 0.8 jump. However, the season is just shy of 50% complete and so, how much of the increase is real? Fortunately, that was recently answered.
What we want is the K/(PA-IBB-HBP)* line, and that says at 126 denominator units, 50% is the player's ability and 50% is the mean. Baker has 369 PAs, which means 74.5% of the 8.6 K/9 is him while the other 25.5% would be regression to the mean. The mean we want would be Baker's historical performance with however much regression is needed.
Taking the last three years, Baker has 2240 PAs, which means we need 94.7% of those three years and 5.3% league average. Baker's three year average for those three years is 7.5 K/9, which is reasonably close to the league average of 6.8. Let's just use 100% Baker. More rounding error.
Putting it all together means the best estimate for his talent right now is 8.3 K/9. Combined with the miniscule (0.09) increase in his BB/9 rate equals good things for his results. His xFIP so far is easily his best yet and his FIP is slightly better than from 2008. Finally, an ace!
* I'm calling these PAs from now on, despite it actually not being a plate appearance. He has one intentional walk and four hit batters, so it's basically rounding error anyway.