The Wild still aren't scoring much (64 GF - good for 9th out of 15 teams in the conference) but they don't give up much either (57 GA - 5/15 in the conference) and they seem to know exactly when to step up their game. I don't know where I heard the stat (or if it's even accurate) but apparently the Wild have won more games after trailing than any team in the league. In hockey, all that matters is wins and losses...oh, and overtime wins.
The Wild (16-7-3) leads the NHL with 35 points. Since we last talked they are 5-2-0 and are 8-2-0 over their last 10 games. They are currently atop both the Western Conference and the Northwest Division, 2 points ahead of Detroit and Chicago and 6 points ahead of Vancouver. Here's how they got there:
Game 20: 11/19 - StL 2, Wild 3 SO - Mikko Koivu scored a shortie in the 2nd period and on the power-play with 1 minute 38 seconds left in regulation to tie the game. Matt Cullen then scored the winner in the shootout. Josh Harding got the win.
Game 21: 11/23 - Nsh 2, Wild 3 - After trailing 1-0 entering the 3rd, Dany Heatley, Kyle Brodziak (PPG) and Cal Clutterbuck (shortie!) scored 3 unanswered and Harding made 23 saves. 5th straight win for the club.
Game 22: 11/25 - Edm 5, Wild 2 - The Oilers had not won in Minnesota since January 6, 2007 - losing 17 times in that span. Edmonton scored twice in the 1st, once in the 2nd and two more times in the 3rd to get their first win at the X in nearly 4 years and end a 5-game win streak by the Wild. Devin Setoguchi netted one in the 1st and P-M Bouchard tied it at 2 midway through the 2nd, but it was all Oilers after that. Harding took the loss. The game was just the second sellout of the year for Minnesota, and the first since opening night.
Game 23: 11/27 - Cgy 5, Wild 2 - Backstrom was pulled for Harding after the Flames scored 3 times in the 1st on only 8 shots. Backstrom had been 5-0-1 with a 0.88 goals against average in his last seven starts against the Flames. Cal Clutterbuck and Nick Johnson scored in the 1st, but that was it for offense from the Wild for the remainder of the night. Harding gave up 2 goals in the 3rd. "The good news is I don't think we can play worse than that. That's something to fall back on," Minnesota coach Mike Yeo said.
Game 24: 11/28 - TBL 1, Wild 3 - Backstrom was back in net after the terrible game against the Flames. He stopped 32 of 33 shots, bouncing back nicely for the win. Clutterbuck scored his 3rd shorthanded goal of the season, Bouchard scored the eventual winner and Koivu added an empty-netter and an assist.
Game 25: 11/10 - Wild 3, Edm 2 SO - Setoguchi scored in the 1st and Kyle Brodziak added a power-play goal in the 2nd and the game winning goal in the 6th round of the shoot-out (only the second shoot-out opportunity of his career). Fun little nugget: Brodziak was traded to the Wild by Edmonton at the 2009 NHL Draft (thanks AP guy). Backstrom got the W with 28 saves.
Game 26: 12/2 - NJD 2, Wild 4 - The Wild chased Martin Brodeur on only 4 shots in the first, finding the net 3 times! Dany Heatley, Brodziak and Casey Wellman (recently up from Houston) scored 3 goals in just over three minutes, pushing the tally to 3-1 before the game was 9 minutes old. After seeing 9 shots and giving up 2 goals, Harding took over for Backstrom to start the 2nd period. During some 4-on-4 time late in the 3rd, Brodziak picked up a loose puck and punched it in glove-side to give the Wild a 4-2 lead. Backstrom officially gets the win, but Harding shut out the Devils over the last 2 frames.
Koivu currently leads the team with 20 points (4 goals, 16 assists)
Latendresse (out indefinitely with a concussion) and Clayton Stoner hold the +/- lead at +7. Koivu is close with a +6 and has played in all 26 of the club's games.
Harding has a GAA of 1.96 and a SV% of .938 in 11 games. Backstrom's record is 10-5-2 with 2 shoot-out losses and a .929 SV%.
The Wild have 8 wins where they have trailed after the first period. No other team in the NHL has more than 5. They have 3 wins when they trailed after 2 periods (that also is tops in the league, but tied with a few other teams).
The Wild also have 10 wins where the other team scored first (most in the NHL). They have the highest win% in games where the other team scores first (62.5%) and they have conceded the first goal more than any other team in the NHL (16 - tied w/ CHI and CGY).
Can they keep winning with this formula? I don't know enough about hockey to make anything but an educated guess, but it doesn't seem sustainable. Or, to steal a pithy phrase, "Trend or Mirage"? I suppuse the former seeing as how they're 26 games in and keep getting it done, but I don't know what constitutes a reliable sample size in a hockey season. Thoughts?
Also being dumb about hockey, I imagine they can do just fine with this formula. Didn't the Twins once win the division and have the most come-from-behind victories? What I'm worried about is the playoffs. Get down 2-0 to great teams and you'll be hard pressed to win a series. One nice trend this year is that we're finally starting to win some shootouts.
I'd like to see more games like last night.
I don't think anyone expects them to stay at the top of the conference (or division, probably). Can this team be a playoff team? I think yes, particularly with the buffer that they've built up to this point.
They need more offense. It's tiring to try to analyze this franchise, because it's the same thing every year. They have to score more goals. Only LA and the Islanders have scored fewer 5-on-5 goals, the power play isn't providing much. The team is so good defensively that it hasn't mattered now, but as the season goes on and points get more precious, the league tightens up and goals become harder to find. I worry that the offense could go from minimal to non-existent.
The Wild have averaged 25.8 shots per game. If they continue at that pace for the rest of the season, it will be the lowest shots per game for any team since the lockout (and also the 4th year in a row that the Wild would be 30th out of 30 in that category).
I think this team is better than the teams we've seen in the past few years, and I certainly think they can compete for a playoff spot. I don't mean to come off as negative here, but this team still has some pretty glaring deficiencies before they are considered a serious contender for anything but the 6-8 seeds.
sounded pretty negative to me 🙂
But I didn't mean it to be!
OK, I kind of did mean it, and I probably haven't said enough about the defense (which has been solid and deep, weathering some early season injuries) and goaltending (which has been lights out), which would be just as positive as the previous LTEs were negative.
But if the question is sustaining this success, it comes back to 'can the offense give them enough?'. I was hopeful that the players brought in would be able to up the scoring, but it hasn't happened so far, and it needs to if the Wild want to keep playing deep into the playoffs.
My question was sustainability and I share your concern about the lack of offense down the stretch. I think your point about the new guys is key. If Heatley (twice scored 50 goals in a season & averaged 36 over the last 4 years) can get even close to where he was from '07-'10, we'd be in great shape. It looks like Setoguchi (24-goal average over the past 3 years) is on pace for his career numbers in that department.
Broken Record : It'd be nice if Mikko could get it going in the goals department, but I can't complain too much about a guy currently leading the team in points. Also, he has averaged nearly 60 per season since '06-'07.
Latendresse. They missed him a ton last year when he was injured. He scores when he plays (32 goals in 80 games for the Wild), but he's got to get on the ice.
Sounds like someone else on the Twins...
Baby Jeebus needs to get on the ice?
So what's with the come-from-behinds? Are they better conditioned/better depth, and are therefore stronger later in the game? Dumb luck? Poorly starting defense?
They really wear teams down. The third periods have been a strength to this point, which is fun to watch.
That ISN'T a bad strategy then, and it is sustainable (barring injuries). But then again, a boost on offense would make it easier.
It reminds me of the NCAA first rounds, when many cinderella teams open up big leads, only to get whomped in second half when the lack of depth begins to show. Not that the Wild is a top team necessarily, but if they have a strong D with good depth, they can make comebacks commonplace for the rest of the season, too.
That's a good strategy for winning tight games and holding on to late leads. And it probably has to do with having more comeback wins, but I truly doubt they can maintain their great record after allowing the first goal. Teams with a lead can go to their fourth line more often to grind it out and they can play conservatively and just dump and chase.
A 62.5 win percentage when the other team scores first is insane and unsustainable. That's a great win percentage overall. For a team that struggles to score anyways, that is really insane. It's great what they have done, but they need to start making a habit of not falling behind in the first place.
It also should be mentioned the Wild have outscored their opponents by only seven goals.
This team reminds me a bit of the 2003 Dodgers. Dead last in runs scored (by a wide margin), and first in runs allowed (by a wide margin). Outscored their opponents by 18 runs and finished 7th in the NL, missing the playoffs by six games.
FWIW, my understanding is the Wild rank very poorly in the advanced possession metrics - probably related to their low shots average. Their goaltending so far is also at a level that is generally considered unsustainable.
To that point, perhaps the strongest indicator of sustainability is PDO (simply even strength sv% + even strength shooting%). It strongly regresses to 1000, and right now, nearly the entire Wild roster is above that number, almost entirely due to the high save percentage of their goaltenders.