That's an interesting argument - pretty persuasive - though I wish I better understood the undervaluing of steals in the PER calculation (and, really, advanced BBall stats in general).
My preseason view of the Wolves was that post season play this spring was a must. In hindsight, they've managed to increase their win total for 5 straight years. Modest gains perhaps, but this is a very different roster than the past few years and there's a good core in place for next year (at least). Rubio is a big part of that. I have to think (Adelman or no) if they can keep him on the floor more, especially in the 4th, and learn how to hold onto leads/stay focused for 4 quarters, they do have a shot at the playoffs again next year.
But some things only happen because somebody makes them happen. ... Steals are disproportionately those kinds of things.
That's an eye-opener for me. I'd say turnovers and fouls are also things that somebody has to make happen (in a negative way, usually), and maybe assists (although it's a pretty flawed stat) and offensive rebounds.
Of course, offensive rebounds only happen when the player or a teammate misses a shot.
I never thought I’d lead the NBA in rebounding, but I got a lot of help from my team-mates – they did a lot of missing. -- Moses Malone
that's a little like leading the league in double-plays turned. You have to be good, but your team also has to be bad.
I know we don't have it bad here in DC, but man I'm ready for no more snow.
Andrew Sullivan with a poignant MLK Jr quote today, in reflection on the passing of Fred Phelps:
“At times we are able to humiliate our worst enemy. Inevitably, his weak moments come and we are able to thrust in his side the spear of defeat. But this we must not do. Every word and deed must contribute to an understanding with the enemy and release those vast reservoirs of goodwill which have been blocked by impenetrable walls of hate,” – Martin Luther King, Jr., Dexter Avenue Baptist Church; Montgomery, Alabama, Christmas Sermon, 1957.
I'm no Cal Thomas fan, but even he got a lot right on Fred Phelps.
Phelps' language is useful in one sense. He should cause everyone to examine their own words and behavior toward people whose beliefs, lifestyle choices and faith might differ from theirs. Hate never converted anyone to another way of thinking, believing or acting. Hate does, however, give permission to some to behave in evil ways. If even one person is beaten, killed, or otherwise harmed because Phelps' family has encouraged them along such lines, even Baptists would say it is an affront to the real God that Phelps did not represent.
I grew up a Baptist, so the "even Baptists" part stick in my craw a bit. Even the less open-minded folk that I've known have thought Phelps was out of his gourd.
I agree with most of the rest of it. Pity that most people just left it at "that guy is a nutjob, but I'm going to keep on going with my more even-tempered hatred."
I like to hold a grudge, but I also see the bennifit of turning the other cheek. I'm large.
I'll also add that after the murder of our close friend, Dr. Chop's advisor, I found myself desperately wanting to forgive the killer. That was a tall order, and a strange sensation, but it certainly helped me move forward.
MLK's wife was outspoken about having forgiven her husband's killer. That's a crazy venture, but I understand the benefits if one's able to do so.
Holding on to hate or even a grudge inevitably hurts the person holding on to it and rarely hurts the object of the hate or grudge.
Ugh. This type of crap only creates congestion points that make people targets for opportunists and worse.
Walk-through detectors seem like more of a pain than getting wanded. Century Link Field in Seattle starting wanding for all events last summer, and the first Sounders game that featured the increased security was a disaster. Something like nearly half the crowd didn't make it inside in time for the start of the game, and eventually they just gave up, realizing that they had drastically underestimated the task at hand. So if you're a first pitch kind of guy, I'd recommend arriving early for Twins games until they have some time to iron this out.
Metal detectors will be installed at limited entry points beginning on Monday, April 7 and screening procedures are expected be implemented at all fan entrances by May 1.
Does that mean only those entrances will be allowed or can you avoid it until May 1 if using a different entrance? If the Twins close the other entrances until they are "secured", the first month of games will have a lot of people missing more than just the first pitch.
If they are smart, what this means is that they are letting fans through without metal detection at the "non-secured" entrances while they test the speed of their process at the "secured" entrances. They mentioned a phased introduction for the extra security, so I'd guess you can probably avoid it somehow until May 1st.
Is Kurt Suzuki really going to be the #2 batter in the line during the regular season?
I've seen this lineup a number of times this spring, so I'm guessing it's the Opening Day lineup:
Brian Dozier, 2B
Kurt Suzuki, C
Joe Mauer, 1B
Josh Willingham, LF
Jason Kubel, DH
Trevor Plouffe, 3B
Oswaldo Arcia, RF
Aaron Hicks, CF
Pedro Florimon, SS
hrmm.
I know debating lineup construction is a waste of energy, but would love to see Suzuki in the 7th slot and everyone else move up a slot.
I thought the 2nd baseman always batted second.
No, they changed that last year.
Oh, you were all so happy when Mauer was batting second, but now you're angry that the catcher bats there??
Yes. Yes I am.
=P
I know debating lineup construction is a waste of energy, but would love to see Suzuki Pinto in the 7th slot and everyone else move up a slot.
There we go.
To me, how much Pinto plays should be based solely on what's best for his long-term development as a major league player. As a general rule, I believe a player will develop faster by playing than by sitting and watching. However, if the Twins believe that it will benefit Pinto to ease his way into the lineup and have some time early in the season to watch and learn, I really have no basis on which to argue with them. But it should be solely dependent on what's best for Pinto's development, not based on anything Suzuki does or does not do.
I might be in the minority around here, but I'm still not entirely convinced on Pinto. He's 25 and didn't appear anywhere on prospect maps until last year (injuries admittedly contributed to that). A year ago John Sickles graded him out as a C. Maybe he turns into something, maybe he doesn't. Obviously, it's much, much better if he does. But I feel like his learning curve/pumpkin factor are probably both very high, so a sheltered approach seems like it might be a good one.
This should not be read as an endorsement of Suzuki.
This should not be read as an endorsement of Suzuki.
I just thought that needed repeating.
Quite.
ZiPS-projected wOBA:
Lots -- Joe Mauer (didn't bother looking his up)
.341 -- Willingham
.334 -- Arcia
.316 -- Plouffe
.301 -- Dozier
.298 -- Kubel
.298 -- Suzuki
.285 -- Hicks (I'll take the over on that in a heartbeat, though)
.277 -- Florimon
Looking at that lineup, the biggest problem is that there are only 3 above-average hitters in the lineup. Arguably, you would want to have Mauer (L), Willingham (R), Arcia (L), Plouffe (R), and Dozier (R) in the top 5 spots, arranged in some order. I'm sure this wouldn't be everyone's cup of tea, but I'd probably go
Wouldn't mind swapping Kubel for Colabello. The formerly lefty-heavy Twins would now be the opposite, in terms of PAs at least. Actual production would still favor Mauer the lefties.
I love Kubel, so I want last year to be a blip, but given that he hasn't hit for average since '09 and he generally has "old-player skills," I'm worried he's fallen off the proverbial cliff. If he goes RonDL on us, though, it won't cost the season and it should be pretty apparent early on. At that point, I'd imagine that Colabello or someone like him would get more playing time.
I definitely wouldn't object to someone playing Colabello over Kubel.
Nice thing is, he doesn't strike out much (11.9% career K rate)...so maybe a Dozier gets on, Suzuki moves him over, Mauer brings him in routine?
Or grounds out to second and Mauer gets another bases empty plate appearance.
I did say maybe...
lifetime .309 OBP. Sounds about right
.336 career when batting second in 223 career PAs.
a comment on that from TwinsDaily:
Close but not cigar. Here are his career OBPs (and PAs) in different positions:
I think someone (Nick or Seth?) then noted that he hasn't batted top-half of the order consistently in about 4 years, let alone second.
Obviously we can conclude from these statistics that Suzuki doesn't like the pressure of being featured high in the lineup and prefers hitting 9th. Get 'er done, Billy Smith!
Obviously! 🙂
Between this comment and the "Interesting strategy" below, I can't stop chuckling...it's going to be a long season.
So you're saying that when he was hitting well, his manager deployed him higher in the lineup. Interesting strategy. Maybe if we had reason to believe he would hit well, we would think it was a good idea for him to hit second...
Also, socal, I didn't mean to be such a jerk about this comment. Sorry about that.
According to Provus, Kubel will be on the team.
Taking the 40 man roster spot that opened up when Worley passed through waivers.
Dick Bremer on Delmon Young during todays broadcast "he is still only 28 years old."
I took a drink of Mt Dew instead of beer.
I smiled when I heard that, too. I think he meant it in the sense of "he's been around so long it seems like he should be about 38 rather than 28", but it still made me smile.
Delmon & Lexi are non-roster invitees with the Orioles this spring. This game is bringing back memories, none of them good.
Laddie can do no wrong IMO. [deleted trade talk]
Joe Mauer, still good at baseball.
Votto agrees:
So when he says that he’ll swing less in the strike zone this year, he’s talking about really swinging at the pitches he wants to make contact on. In other words, he’d like to be “more in that [Joe] Mauer category, really efficient, swinging at a really low rate inside the strike zone, and outside the strike zone, very rarely swinging.” Nobody swings less than Joe Mauer.
Joe Mauer's like the Dos Equis most interesting man in the world. "I don't swing often, but when I do, I prefer to hit frozen ropes to the gaps."
This would make a tremendous banner.
Do we have an hj signal?
If so, can we turn that into a banner too?
I haven't made one yet, no.
I'm no hj, but I gave it a go:
awesome
Agreed...but moar sideburns pleeze.
Sideburns are the brutalism of facial hair.
Nice work. Could use some brutalism though, eh?
Did anyone else get a credit for the Kindle store from the settlement today? I've now got a whopping $4.35 burning a whole in my account.
I don't see one, but I also didn't get an email notification, so I must not have purchased from the publishers in the complaint.
Yep. Now that I'm riding public transportation every day again I think I'll be able to step up my pleasure reading.
An uno from Delmon. Ah, the memories.
It was nice knowing ya, Vanimal
Dustin Morse @Twins_morsecode
The @Twins have traded RHP Vance Worley to the Pittsburgh Pirates for cash.
News Flash: Runner daughter has tentatively accepted a job offer, and they want her to start prior to her graduation, which will require a bit of shuffling and permission from her profs for the last week or so of school. #winning
Awesome! Congrats to her.
Congrats, RR. You must be proud!
Wooooo! Now you can redecorate her room!
Congratulations to her. Hope it's the start of a long and rewarding career.
Gofers getting out-quicked by Southern Miss.
But just hit a couple threes to tie it.
Impressive last 25 minutes for the Goofs. On to MSG!
Its been forever since Austin Hollins went on an offensive run like that.
Considering it was a career high, I would say it's been at least since high school. 🙂
hah. true
but the last time he scored over 20 was Feb 25 and he went long stretches of the season where he didnt crack double digit points. It was nice to see.
Camry Commentary: It was indeed the A/C magnetic clutch relay. I got a replacement relay from an auto parts store for $15, pulled the old one, plugged in the new one, and presto. I love the Series of Tubes.
MSRP on the "genuine" part is $75, which would be a joke if it weren't so sad.
Ricky Rubio, elite player thanks to steals?
That's an interesting argument - pretty persuasive - though I wish I better understood the undervaluing of steals in the PER calculation (and, really, advanced BBall stats in general).
My preseason view of the Wolves was that post season play this spring was a must. In hindsight, they've managed to increase their win total for 5 straight years. Modest gains perhaps, but this is a very different roster than the past few years and there's a good core in place for next year (at least). Rubio is a big part of that. I have to think (Adelman or no) if they can keep him on the floor more, especially in the 4th, and learn how to hold onto leads/stay focused for 4 quarters, they do have a shot at the playoffs again next year.
That's an eye-opener for me. I'd say turnovers and fouls are also things that somebody has to make happen (in a negative way, usually), and maybe assists (although it's a pretty flawed stat) and offensive rebounds.
Of course, offensive rebounds only happen when the player or a teammate misses a shot.
that's a little like leading the league in double-plays turned. You have to be good, but your team also has to be bad.
I know we don't have it bad here in DC, but man I'm ready for no more snow.
Kevin Love is a broken man
Andrew Sullivan with a poignant MLK Jr quote today, in reflection on the passing of Fred Phelps:
I'm no Cal Thomas fan, but even he got a lot right on Fred Phelps.
I like to hold a grudge, but I also see the bennifit of turning the other cheek. I'm large.
I'll also add that after the murder of our close friend, Dr. Chop's advisor, I found myself desperately wanting to forgive the killer. That was a tall order, and a strange sensation, but it certainly helped me move forward.
MLK's wife was outspoken about having forgiven her husband's killer. That's a crazy venture, but I understand the benefits if one's able to do so.
Holding on to hate or even a grudge inevitably hurts the person holding on to it and rarely hurts the object of the hate or grudge.
So, has there ever been an event at a baseball stadium that a metal detector would have prevented?
Security Theatre coming to the Bullseye this summer.
Ugh. This type of crap only creates congestion points that make people targets for opportunists and worse.
Walk-through detectors seem like more of a pain than getting wanded. Century Link Field in Seattle starting wanding for all events last summer, and the first Sounders game that featured the increased security was a disaster. Something like nearly half the crowd didn't make it inside in time for the start of the game, and eventually they just gave up, realizing that they had drastically underestimated the task at hand. So if you're a first pitch kind of guy, I'd recommend arriving early for Twins games until they have some time to iron this out.
Does that mean only those entrances will be allowed or can you avoid it until May 1 if using a different entrance? If the Twins close the other entrances until they are "secured", the first month of games will have a lot of people missing more than just the first pitch.
If they are smart, what this means is that they are letting fans through without metal detection at the "non-secured" entrances while they test the speed of their process at the "secured" entrances. They mentioned a phased introduction for the extra security, so I'd guess you can probably avoid it somehow until May 1st.
Is Kurt Suzuki really going to be the #2 batter in the line during the regular season?
I've seen this lineup a number of times this spring, so I'm guessing it's the Opening Day lineup:
Brian Dozier, 2B
Kurt Suzuki, C
Joe Mauer, 1B
Josh Willingham, LF
Jason Kubel, DH
Trevor Plouffe, 3B
Oswaldo Arcia, RF
Aaron Hicks, CF
Pedro Florimon, SS
hrmm.
I know debating lineup construction is a waste of energy, but would love to see Suzuki in the 7th slot and everyone else move up a slot.
I thought the 2nd baseman always batted second.
No, they changed that last year.
Oh, you were all so happy when Mauer was batting second, but now you're angry that the catcher bats there??
Yes. Yes I am.
=P
I know debating lineup construction is a waste of energy, but would love to see
SuzukiPinto in the 7th slot and everyone else move up a slot.There we go.
To me, how much Pinto plays should be based solely on what's best for his long-term development as a major league player. As a general rule, I believe a player will develop faster by playing than by sitting and watching. However, if the Twins believe that it will benefit Pinto to ease his way into the lineup and have some time early in the season to watch and learn, I really have no basis on which to argue with them. But it should be solely dependent on what's best for Pinto's development, not based on anything Suzuki does or does not do.
I might be in the minority around here, but I'm still not entirely convinced on Pinto. He's 25 and didn't appear anywhere on prospect maps until last year (injuries admittedly contributed to that). A year ago John Sickles graded him out as a C. Maybe he turns into something, maybe he doesn't. Obviously, it's much, much better if he does. But I feel like his learning curve/pumpkin factor are probably both very high, so a sheltered approach seems like it might be a good one.
This should not be read as an endorsement of Suzuki.
I just thought that needed repeating.
Quite.
ZiPS-projected wOBA:
Lots -- Joe Mauer (didn't bother looking his up)
.341 -- Willingham
.334 -- Arcia
.316 -- Plouffe
.301 -- Dozier
.298 -- Kubel
.298 -- Suzuki
.285 -- Hicks (I'll take the over on that in a heartbeat, though)
.277 -- Florimon
Looking at that lineup, the biggest problem is that there are only 3 above-average hitters in the lineup. Arguably, you would want to have Mauer (L), Willingham (R), Arcia (L), Plouffe (R), and Dozier (R) in the top 5 spots, arranged in some order. I'm sure this wouldn't be everyone's cup of tea, but I'd probably go
Dozier (R)
Plouffe (R)
Mauer (L)
Willingham (R)
Arcia (L)
Suzuki (R)
Kubel (L)
Hicks (B)
Florimon (B)
Wouldn't mind swapping Kubel for Colabello. The formerly lefty-heavy Twins would now be the opposite, in terms of PAs at least. Actual production would still favor
Mauerthe lefties.I love Kubel, so I want last year to be a blip, but given that he hasn't hit for average since '09 and he generally has "old-player skills," I'm worried he's fallen off the proverbial cliff. If he goes RonDL on us, though, it won't cost the season and it should be pretty apparent early on. At that point, I'd imagine that Colabello or someone like him would get more playing time.
I definitely wouldn't object to someone playing Colabello over Kubel.
Nice thing is, he doesn't strike out much (11.9% career K rate)...so maybe a Dozier gets on, Suzuki moves him over, Mauer brings him in routine?
Or grounds out to second and Mauer gets another bases empty plate appearance.
I did say maybe...
lifetime .309 OBP. Sounds about right
.336 career when batting second in 223 career PAs.
a comment on that from TwinsDaily:
I think someone (Nick or Seth?) then noted that he hasn't batted top-half of the order consistently in about 4 years, let alone second.
Obviously we can conclude from these statistics that Suzuki doesn't like the pressure of being featured high in the lineup and prefers hitting 9th. Get 'er done, Billy Smith!
Obviously! 🙂
Between this comment and the "Interesting strategy" below, I can't stop chuckling...it's going to be a long season.
So you're saying that when he was hitting well, his manager deployed him higher in the lineup. Interesting strategy. Maybe if we had reason to believe he would hit well, we would think it was a good idea for him to hit second...
Also, socal, I didn't mean to be such a jerk about this comment. Sorry about that.
According to Provus, Kubel will be on the team.
Taking the 40 man roster spot that opened up when Worley passed through waivers.
Dick Bremer on Delmon Young during todays broadcast "he is still only 28 years old."
I took a drink of Mt Dew instead of beer.
I smiled when I heard that, too. I think he meant it in the sense of "he's been around so long it seems like he should be about 38 rather than 28", but it still made me smile.
Delmon & Lexi are non-roster invitees with the Orioles this spring. This game is bringing back memories, none of them good.
Laddie can do no wrong IMO. [deleted trade talk]
Joe Mauer, still good at baseball.
Votto agrees:
Joe Mauer's like the Dos Equis most interesting man in the world. "I don't swing often, but when I do, I prefer to hit frozen ropes to the gaps."
This would make a tremendous banner.
Do we have an hj signal?
If so, can we turn that into a banner too?
I haven't made one yet, no.
I'm no hj, but I gave it a go:
awesome
Agreed...but moar sideburns pleeze.
Sideburns are the brutalism of facial hair.
Nice work. Could use some brutalism though, eh?
Did anyone else get a credit for the Kindle store from the settlement today? I've now got a whopping $4.35 burning a whole in my account.
I don't see one, but I also didn't get an email notification, so I must not have purchased from the publishers in the complaint.
Yep. Now that I'm riding public transportation every day again I think I'll be able to step up my pleasure reading.
An uno from Delmon. Ah, the memories.
It was nice knowing ya, Vanimal
Selling before his value plummets more?
So about $tree-fiddy then?
$1, Bob.
...- .- -. -.-. . / .-- --- .-. .-.. . -.-- / -.-. -.-- .-
Norm Cash? Johnny Cash?
Dave.
News Flash: Runner daughter has tentatively accepted a job offer, and they want her to start prior to her graduation, which will require a bit of shuffling and permission from her profs for the last week or so of school. #winning
Awesome! Congrats to her.
Congrats, RR. You must be proud!
Wooooo! Now you can redecorate her room!
Congratulations to her. Hope it's the start of a long and rewarding career.
Gofers getting out-quicked by Southern Miss.
But just hit a couple threes to tie it.
Impressive last 25 minutes for the Goofs. On to MSG!
Its been forever since Austin Hollins went on an offensive run like that.
Considering it was a career high, I would say it's been at least since high school. 🙂
hah. true
but the last time he scored over 20 was Feb 25 and he went long stretches of the season where he didnt crack double digit points. It was nice to see.
Camry Commentary: It was indeed the A/C magnetic clutch relay. I got a replacement relay from an auto parts store for $15, pulled the old one, plugged in the new one, and presto. I love the Series of Tubes.
MSRP on the "genuine" part is $75, which would be a joke if it weren't so sad.