Part One -- Game Details

                                 1  2  3    4  5  6    7  8  9     R  H  E
                                 -  -  -    -  -  -    -  -  -     -  -  -
    Minnesota Twins              0  0  0    0  0  3    0  1  1     5  7  1
    Atlanta Braves               0  0  0    4  1  0    6  3  x    14 17  1

    PITCHERS: MIN - Tapani, Leach (5), West (7), Bedrosian (7), Willis (8)
              ATL - Glavine, Mercker (6), Clancy (7), St. Claire (9)

               WP - Tom Glavine
	       LP - Kevin Tapani
             SAVE - none

   HOME RUNS: MIN - none
              ATL - Hunter, Justice, Smith

Part Two -- Players of the Game, WPA Style

David Justice: 19.2%
(redacted) (redacted): 10.7%
Kent Mercker: 10.2%
Jim Clancy: 7%
Ron Gant: 6.5%

Game Changing Moment -- David Justice's two-run homer off of Tapani in the bottom of the 4th, starting the scoring barrage. It increased their odds of winning by 19%.

Part Three -- If A Chili Davis Falls in the Woods and Hits Dan Gladden, Does Anyone Care?

I am sure when the Twins signed Gladden they were hoping to get the 1984 version who had a .384 BABIP with an OPS+ of 145. What they got was a below average left-fielder who occasionally had a mediocre year with the bat with inconsistent defense and baserunning. His WAR totals with the Twins were 1.2, 3.4, 1.4, -1.2, 0.8.  Not Delmon Young, but not exactly impressive for a guy who started over 120 games each year. It would have been nice to see Gladden primarily start against lefties, especially in 1991 when Randy Bush was mashing righties.

Gladden had a terrible year offensively in 1987, but he had a marvelous World Series that pretty much won people over. He was perceived to be solid defensively and a good lead-off man. Tom Kelly liked getting his bench players a lot of playoff time and probably realized Gladden was the weakest of his outfielders, so Gladden would often be the one to sit. But come playoff time, Gladden got all 24 starts, always leading off with his barely above .300 OBP.

In Game 5, Kelly decided to throw Chili Davis into the outfield, despite his bad defense and lack of playing time. Davis had been clutch so far and no doubt he wanted some spark against Tom Glavine. But instead of benching Gladden, he benched Mack, who had an all-star worthy season with a 140 OPS+. Mack in the first four games had four goose eggs, so I can understand the temptation. I'll give Kelly a pass on this decision.

What I want to know is, especially considering how bad Gladden was in 1990, how might the Twins have done had Gladden not been on the team in 91 and Davis had played the outfield the entire year?

Gladden was worth 0.8 WAR in 1991 in 511 plate appearances. Chili Davis, 3.3 WAR in 634 appearances. Chili was a full-time DH, but he had played a full season in the outfield in 1989, and about 50 games in 1990. I don't think durability would have been a huge issue in the outfield, but let's be conservative and say he goes on the disabled list once and loses 15 games. That brings his WAR down to about 3.0. In his past three seasons, Davis was a combined -25 runs for fielding. Let's be conservative again and say he posts -10 runs in a hypothetical 138 games defensively . That brings his WAR down to 2.0. Over one win higher than Gladden.

Now, we need to replace Davis's bats at DH. The Twins can easily do this with their bench. Randy Bush could be a permanent DH against righties. He notched a 1.1 offensive WAR in just 193 PAs. Again, let's be conservative and say any additional WAR he accumulates by having more at bats is negated by regression and batting against the occasional left-handed reliever. Against lefties, Gene Larkin and Pedro Munoz  (also much better hitters than Gladden) could have easily handled the rest of the starts and their terrible outfield defense would be erased by being replaced by Chili Davis's terrible outfield defense.

I'm certainly not adept at manipulating WAR numbers and the above scenario is hardly scientific, but I think it's pretty clear that the Twins still could have won the division, if not had a better record, without Gladden. They probably score more runs on offense and give up more on defense.

Perhaps with their young pitchers, having the better defense is a good idea. Giving Erickson and Tapani confidence and not relying so much on the bullpen (which wasn't quite as good as the rotation) is not a terrible idea. And certainly, if I was running the team in 1991, I probably keep Gladden around, too (batting him 9th and platooning). But other than the some very timely World Series heroics, I think it's pretty clear to me that Gladden was one of the least important factors on either team.

Part One -- Game Details

                           1  2  3    4  5  6    7  8  9     R  H  E
                                 -  -  -    -  -  -    -  -  -     -  -  -
    Minnesota Twins              0  1  0    0  0  0    1  0  0     2  7  0
    Atlanta Braves               0  0  1    0  0  0    1  0  1     3  8  0

    PITCHERS: MIN - Morris, Willis (7), Guthrie (8), Bedrosian (9)
              ATL - Smoltz, Wohlers (8), Stanton (8)

               WP - Mike Stanton
	       LP - Mark Guthrie
             SAVE - none

   HOME RUNS: MIN - Pagliarulo
              ATL - Pendleton, Smith

Part Two -- Players of the Game, WPA Style

1. Mike Pagliarulo: 39.9%
2. (redacted) Lemke: 30.4%
3. Lonnie Smith: 29.1%
4. Mike Stanton: 24.2%
5. Jack Morris: 23.1%

There's a Twins third baseman again. And there's Jack Morris again. He really did have a great series.

Game Changing Moment -- Both Lonnie Smith's 7th inning homer and Lemke's 9th inning triple increased the Braves' odds of winning by 25%.

Part Three -- Ray Fosse Suffers PTSD

When I was a kid, with an undeveloped sense of reason, I thought plowing into the catcher was fun. I even did it once in Little League, and had it done once to me (out on both ends). Watching this series, I about wanted to vomit.

Dan Gladden spiking Greg Olson is immortalized in one of our banners. Gladden was out by several feet and he decided to pull a Ty Cobb. In this game, Lonnie Smith is out by at least ten feet after he couldn't score from second on a double that reached the wall (man, that guy was a terrible base runner).  He then pulls off his best Pro Wrestling move, Starman's Flying Cross Chop. Ronnie Lott probably took notes. Just disgusting. I'll be so glad if they get this rule changed. Anything to make my favorite sport less like football.

Also, I love Brian Harper. Even his temper tantrum after he didn't tag Lemke to end the game. He tries to spike the ball, but he loses the ball, so he just flails his fists like a baby.

Part Four -- Who's The Clutchiest Clutch Playoff Hero?

Throughout both the 1987 and 1991, World Series, we hear many, many times how often the "little guy" is the hero. It gets to the point where the announcers begin wondering aloud who the "little guy hero" will be today. To be fair, they did witness a lot of little heroes in these two series. Tom Lawless was perhaps the most unlikely hero ever.  Mark Lemke and Steve Lombardozzi went completely nuts. Tim Laudner and Scott Leuis far outperformed their regular season stats. Greg Gagne homered at twice the rate during the playoffs as he did during the regular season.

Of course, us here at the WGOM recognize that the playoffs are Small Sample Size Theater in action, and for every little guy that hits a game-winning single, there's a bunch of little guys that continue to hit like little guys. Lemke turned into a pumpkin for the rest of his playoff career.

What I wanted to look at today are the all-time leaders in Win Probability Added for hitters in the playoffs. When you're looking at "heroes," this stat is the best as it accounts for the big moments (both good and bad) people tend to remember. I was curious to see if the list would be populated by great players or would be a random sampling of good and bad players given the small sample size.

Thanks to sabermetrician Adam Darowski for this list he compiled in 2011. Here are the Top 41 batters all-time by playoff WPA. I wish I had a list for the last two years, as I'm sure Carlos Beltran would be high up if we included his last two years.

Blue = Lifetime OPS+ under 100

1. Babe Ruth
2. Pete Rose
3. Lou Gehrig
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Albert Pujols
6. David Ortiz
7. Charlie Keller
8. Home Run Baker
9. Dave Henderson
10. Manny Ramirez
11. Lenny Dykstra
12. Johnny Bench
13. Kirk Gibson
14. Gary Carter
15. Mickey Mantle
16. Paul Molitor
17. Willie Aikens
18. Thurman Munson
19. Hideki Matsui
20. Edgardo Alfonso
21. George Brett
22. Jim Leyritz
23. Lance Berkman
24. Duffy Lewis
25. James Loney
26. Billy Hatcher
27. Jimmie Foxx
28. Tris Speaker
29. Reggie Jackson
30. Barry Bonds
31. J.T. Snow
32. Johnny Evers
33. Scott Spezio
34. Ken Griffey Jr.
35. Ruben Sierra
36. Duke Snider
37. Kirby Puckett
38. Jayson Werth
39. Otis Nixon
40. Francisco Cabrera
41. Hank Aaron

Out of the Top 41, there's just three guys who weren't at least average hitters.

Billy Hatcher: LIfetime OPS+ of 86. In 61 plate appearances he went 404/466/654. His biggest hit was a solo homer in the bottom of the 14th inning against the Mets in game 6 of the 1986 NLCS. The Astros went on to lose in the bottom of the 16th. Hatcher got an RBI in the 16th as well.  In the 1990 WS, Jose Rijo was given the MVP. It was deserved, but Hatcher certainly was the runner-up.

Scott Spiezio: Lifetime OPS+ of 95. In 95 plate appearances he went 284/379/531. His biggest momemnt, WPA wise, was a go-ahead RBI against the Yankees in the 2002 ALDS. He also had other big hits, including a homer against the Twins in the ALCS in Game 5, though Twins fans probably remember Adam Kennedy's awfulness primarily.

Otis Nixon: Lifetime OPS+ of 77. In 93 plate apperances he went 321/396/383. He ended the 1992 World Series trying to bunt home the game-tying run, so I'm surprised he made the list. But I forgot that in the bottom of the 9th of the same game, he got the game-tying hit with two outs to send the game into extras.

I suppose the end results shouldn't be that surprising. The list is populated by some of the best hitters of all-time. Guys who hit well during the regular season tend to hit well in the playoffs. For sure there's been a lot of memorable hits by little guys, but we tend to forget all the times those little guys fail because we expect them to. Meanwhile, the big guys tend to get blamed when they do poorly despite the fact that the big guys are often responsible for the biggest playoff moments.

Part 1 -- Game Details

                              1  2  3    4  5  6    7  8  9   10 11 12     R  H  E
                                 -  -  -    -  -  -    -  -  -    -  -  -     -  -  -
    Minnesota Twins              1  0  0    0  0  0    1  2  0    0  0  0     4 10  1
    Atlanta Braves               0  1  0    1  2  0    0  0  0    0  0  1     5  8  2

    PITCHERS: MIN - Erickson, West (5), Leach (5), Bedrosian (6), Willis (8), Guthrie (10), Aguilera (12)
              ATL - Avery, Pena (8), Stanton (10), Wohlers (12), Mercker (12), Clancy (12)

               WP - Jim Clancy
	       LP - Rick Aguilera
             SAVE - none

   HOME RUNS: MIN - Davis, Puckett
              ATL - Justice, Smith

Part 2 -- Players of the Game, WPA Style

Mark Lemke: 33.5 %
Chili Davis: 30.3 %
Mike Stanton: 26.9%
Mark Guthrie: 26.9 %
Carl Willis: 23.9%

Game Changing Moment--Mark Lemke's game-winning single, increasing the Braves' odds of winning by 39%.

Part 3 -- Kelly Goes All Tony LaRussa

This game is famous for many reasons, one of which is the Twins using 23 players in one game and Aguilera having to bat in the 12th innings. But this could have been avoided if Kelly wasn't running the roster like it was game seven. How many mistakes did Kelly make? Let's count the ways.

1.  Calling in David West to replace Scott Erickson.

On one hand, West would be your long man, given that he was the only other starter on the team. But by using your only long man this early, you can pretty well guarantee you'll be screwed if you go to extra innings. Kelly said he eventually would have taken Aguilera out after three innings and put in Dan Gladden to pitch. Thankfully, he was saved this embarrassment.

2. Using Terry Leach For Just One Batter

By pulling Leach for Gene Larkin, Kelly left himself with four pitchers. Granted, he was able to milk a lot out of them, but he didn't need to. Kelly had the double-switch at his disposal. He could have removed Greg Gagne (who had ended the 5th inning) for Pagliarulo, moving Leius to short. Then, if Pags needs to be lifted against a lefty (which is what happened later anyway) you have Newman.

3. Replacing Chili Davis with Jarvis Brown

Now I get that Davis's range in right field was probably nil and he hadn't played there all year. And the game was tied. But it's not like Brown was Jesse Barfield. And it's not like Randy Bush was Delmon Young out there either. You leave Davis in, you have a huge bat in the lineup in the 9th when Harper is on 2nd base. Bush pinch-hit (and he was good against righties that year), which was fine, but then that left the Twins without an emergency fielder in Brown. Incidentally, Jarvis Brown didn't have one ball hit to him while he was in there.

Part 4 -- The Designated Hitter is Awesome

I would never argue that game three wasn't a blast. Rick Aguilera was almost as good a hitter as Al Newman, and he came pretty close to being the game's hero when he lined a Jim Clancy pitch to deep center field. But from a purely logical standpoint, it should never have to happen.

After Game 3, a lot of people were interviewed about the DH. Fay Vincent, who was adamantly against it, said the proof that the DH was bad was Game 3, because not having it made the game more interesting. Tommy Lasorda insisted that his job was tougher than Tom Kelly's because he had to deal with situations like in game 3, and that Kelly could manage from home because once he made the lineups, his decisions were over.

I don't like swearing at the WGOM, but I don't want to mention every other ignorant thing he said during the World Series broadcast, so give me just this one: Fuck Tommy Lasorda.

Perhaps worse, McCarver tacitly agreed with the above thoughts. He did point out that Kelly has to make pitching changes, but he also was on 87 broadcast, when it was mentioned that Kelly likes to be in control of every decision in the game. Kelly calls for bunts, calls for steals, calls for take signs.  He uses a stopwatch to time the pitcher and catcher.  All of it.

I sometimes enjoy the novelty of pitchers hitting. But as Tom Kelly says, the fans don't come to the ballpark to watch him manage or watch pitchers flail helplessly. They come to see hitters hit.

Part 5 -- Justice Was Out

I think.

Part 1 -- Game Details

                               1  2  3    4  5  6    7  8  9     R  H  E
                                 -  -  -    -  -  -    -  -  -     -  -  -
    Atlanta Braves               0  1  0    0  1  0    0  0  0     2  8  1
    Minnesota Twins              2  0  0    0  0  0    0  1  x     3  4  1

    PITCHERS: ATL - Glavine
              MIN - Tapani, Aguilera (9)

               WP - Kevin Tapani
	       LP - Tom Glavine
             SAVE - Rick Aguilera

   HOME RUNS: ATL - none
              MIN - Davis, Leius

Part 2 -- Stars of the Game, WPA Style

Kevin Tapani: 33.5 %
Scott Leius: 16.8 %
Rick Aguilera: 16.7 %
Chili Davis: 11.1 %
Terry Pendleton: 10.1 %

Tapani was great like he was all year. And Scott Leius took part in what was an amazing playoffs (WPA wise) for the Twins third basemen.

Part 3 -- The Best First Baseman Tom Kelly's Ever Seen

That's an actual paraphrased quote about Kent Hrbek, at least according to the World Series broadcasters. Hilariously, they mention that Kelly said this about Hrbek mere seconds before he pulled Gant off first base. Hrbek must be the best ever if he could get away with that play.

Let's quickly get that play out of the way. I've seen the replay a zillion times. Hrbek pulled on Gant's leg. Would Gant's momentum have taken him off regardless? I put the chance of that at ten percent.  What's more hilarious, however, is that the booth decided to patch in the director of major league umpires to get his opinion on Drew Coble's call. He defended the call. Shocking, I know.

Getting back to Hrbek's defense. Not only do Buck and McCarver quote Kelly as saying Hrbek's the best fielding first baseman he ever saw, they trumpet his fielding several times throughout the series, even going so far as to call him the best in the league at that time. So why don't we look at the fielding metrics for 1991.

Total Zone Runs as 1B

1. Quintana  (8)
2. Mattingly (6)
3. Olerud (6)
4. Stubbs (3)
5. Benzinger (3)

Range Factor/9 Innings

1. Joyner (10.42)
2. Stubbs (10.33)
3. Hrbek (10.25)
4. Milligan (10.08)
5. Fielder (9.88)

Fielding Percentage

1. O'Brien (.997)
2. Clark (.997)
3. McGwire (.997)
4. Olerud (.996)
5. Mattingly (.996)

Hrbek doesn't fare too bad at range factor, though Total Runs is almost certainly a better measure. In 1991, he had exactly zero, which would suggest he was a perfectly average first baseman that year. But let's take a look at the bigger picture. Looking at Total Runs over the course of his career.

I bought the 1991 World Series DVD a few years ago and finally got around to going through them, one by one. I know we talked once about doing faux game logs for these games, but now that everyone at the WGOM has a family and kids, it's probably not going to happen. But while listening to Buck and McCarver for over twenty hours, I noticed a lot of things that I never would have picked up on when I was eleven years old. I'll spend the next seven weekdays covering each game (because dangit, I have opinions), and hopefully you learn something along the way.

Part 1 -- Game Details

                                 1  2  3    4  5  6    7  8  9     R  H  E
                                 -  -  -    -  -  -    -  -  -     -  -  -
    Atlanta Braves               0  0  0    0  0  1    0  1  0     2  6  1
    Minnesota Twins              0  0  1    0  3  1    0  0  x     5  9  1

    PITCHERS: ATL - Leibrandt, Clancy (5), Wohlers (7), Stanton (8)
              MIN - Morris, Guthrie (8), Aguilera (8)

               WP - Jack Morris
	       LP - Charlie Leibrandt
             SAVE - Rick Aguilera

   HOME RUNS: ATL - none
              MIN - Gagne, Hrbek

Part 2 -- Stars of the Game, WPA Style

Jack Morris: 24.4%
Chuck Knoblauch: 13.9%
Ron Gant: 9.6%
Kent Hrbek: 8.9%
Greg Gagne: 8.7%

Morris was great in game seven, but let's not forget he was great in game one. Knoblauch reached base every time, and Hrbek had his one good game before he was murdered by the rest of the Brave lefties.

Game Changing Moment--Greg Gagne's 3-run shot, increasing the Twins chance to win by 11%

Part 3 -- Twins, Voodoo Doll Masters

During the 1987 broadcast, we heard about every eight minutes about lucky the Twins were that they didn't have to face Jack Clark or a healthy Terry Pendleton. And while that got annoying, they were right. Jack Clark should have been MVP, and Pendleton, while not that great in 1987, was a beast compared to Tom "Bat Flip" Lawless. I believe there's a decent chance the Twins lose that series if those players are healthy.

In 1991, the Twins received some similar luck. The Braves lost Otis Nixon (who had zero power but walked and stole 72 bases) to a drug test. They lost two solid relievers in Marvin Freeman and Juan Berenguer to injuries. However, unlike the Cards, the Braves were able to patch these holes with little negative effect. Lonnie "Skates" Smith was a better hitter than Nixon, though significantly worse in the field and on the basepaths. And the Braves picked up Alejandro Pena and called up Mark Wohlers. Wohlers was iffy at best, but their entire pitching staff was deep. If the Braves were hurt by their injuries, it didn't show in the playoffs.

Part 4 -- Kelly Makes Things Harder

The Twins, much like in 87, had no significant injuries. Larkin couldn't run, but otherwise the whole gang was healthy. Despite this, I believe Kelly made a couple of serious mistakes with his roster construction.

Mark Guthrie

I love the fact that Kelly only brought nine pitchers with him. He brought the lackluster David West as insurance for Scott Erickson (or a freak injury) and five relievers, Aguilera, Willis, Bedrosian, Leach, and Guthrie.

Aguilera and Willis were obvious choices. Bedrosian and Leach were okay; I may have chosen Tom Edens over Leach as he had a better WHIP and strikeout rate, but Leach had World Series experience and had that funky delivery which can be nice to have around. Guthrie was the mistake.

The Twins were severely deficient in left-handers, and I understand the need to have one on the roster, even if the only Brave lefty that was terrible against lefties was Sid Bream. But Guthrie was atrocious in 1991. His WHIP (1.602), walk rate (3.8), home run rate (1.0) are all scary. He had a decent strikeout rate (6.6), but not good enough to offset everything else. The worst part, though, is that he was terrible at getting out lefties (337/383/500). Kelly wound up using him four times in the World Series, and he got lucky Guthrie only gave up one run considering he allowed seven base runners in four innings.

Who else, then, should have replaced him on the roster? It should have been an easy choice: 1988 ERA champion Allan Anderson. Now, Allan wasn't much better than Guthrie in 1991. He gave up a bunch of homers and had a higher ERA. But one thing he could still do very well in his final season was get out lefties. How well?  225/265/315 in 117 plate appearances. I would trust him against David Justice.  In fact, I'm surprised Allan didn't make it as a lefty-specialist, but it looks like he completely fell apart in AAA the next couple of years.

Jarvis Brown

The Twins brought sixteen hitters after leading the league in average and OBP, and had a  very solid bench. Al Newman was god-awful, but he was a solid infielder who could backup just about anyone and had been on the 87 roster. Paul Sorrento was an up-and-coming power threat and a good choice for the bench role. Due to a low number of injuries, the Twins were able to bring pretty much every hitter who contributed, except one. Pedro Munoz.

Now, the reason Kelly brought Jarvis Brown on is obvious: Brown was seven for eight in stolen bases, and the Twins had no good base stealers or pinch-runners on the bench. Brown was worthless with the bat and despite entering three games, never attempted a steal. He went 0-2 in mop-up duty in game five. And I'm sure everyone remembers he was due up (instead of Chili Davis) before Gene Larkin won the series.

Pedro was in his second year with the Twins and was a very part-time player. He had an OPS+ of 121, and while he had little plate discipline, he had obvious raw power and decent contact skills. He was also three for three in stolen bases, so he wasn't a statue. He was a terrible defender (negative 42 total zone runs in 517 games), so starting him in left field over Gladden would have been questionable. But as an additional bench option, he would have been very welcome. Now nobody could have predicted how desperate the Twins would need bench options in the series, but having a fast guy to replace your cleanup hitter in a tie game seems really silly.