Tonight the Wild get an elimination game at home. A win here forces game 7 back in Las Vegas on Friday. The home team hasn't fared well in this series so far, with Vegas getting the only home win in game 2.
The Wild didn't make it look super easy, but they got a win in game 5. At this point in the series, it no longer matters how well the team plays, it just matters if they win and keep the series going. Continue reading NHL PLAYOFFS: Game 6 – Las Vegas @ Minnesota
*Deep breath*
Well, let's do this one more time. The Wild play their first absolute "must-win" game of the year. They are back in Vegas, so we get another real late start, and it would be understandable if interest in this playoff season is waning. Disappointment and frustration are the dominant Wild fan feelings at this point, and the temptation is to write a post-mortem on this season already.
But!
The Wild aren't done until they lose one more game, so let's see what they can do with their backs against the wall. Continue reading NHL PLAYOFFS: Game 5 – Wild @ Vegas
J.A. Happ vs. Zach Plesac
Two pitchers who violate the WGOM style guide for the spelling of first names face off in yet another Sunday rubber match.
Miguel Sano has been very good at hitting the baseball lately. He's got at least one hit in 8 of his last 9 games, and in that time he has 2 singles, 3 doubles and 6 home runs (.333/.405/.970). Any time Sano has as many hits (11) as strikeouts (11) over a stretch, you know things are going well.
I am honestly not sure what to say about game 3. The first period looked so good. Wild players were in front of the net. Pucks were finding their sticks and actually getting past Fleury. Spirits were high!
And then the Wild turned in the worst two periods of the entire season series against the Golden Knights. Vegas got more goals than the Wild got shots over the last 40 minutes of game 3. It was an intensely frustrating game to watch. Continue reading NHL PLAYOFFS: Game 4 – Vegas @ Minnesota
The series is tied, and now moves to Minnesota for the next two games. The Wild have dominated in general as the home team, and have had three years of success against Las Vegas in Minnesota.
On the other hand, they will probably have to score more than one goal per game to win these two games. Continue reading NHL PLAYOFFS: Game 3 – Vegas @ Wild
Late night hockey for game 2 as the Wild look to take another game in Las Vegas.
Road teams that win games 1 and 2 in the NHL playoffs win 80% of the series (79 out of 99 historically). Road teams that win game 1 and lose game 2 win 43.5% of the series (70 out of 161 historically). Unsurprisingly, it would be good to win this game. Continue reading NHL PLAYOFFS: Game 2 – Wild @ Vegas
The most successful team in Wild history (by points percentage) now begins the playoffs on the road in Las Vegas, a team that could easily be the best in the NHL this season. A lot of the predictions and previews out there has focused on the Wild's success against Vegas in the regular season, where the Wild won 5 out of 8 and only lost once in regulation. That's not nothing, and it's always better to line up against a team that doesn't feel like the overwhelming favorite (see: Avalanche, Colorado), but it's also pretty clear that the Golden Knights are an elite team, one of the best in the NHL and there will be no easy wins for the Wild in this series.
I have to be honest, I don't know how I'm expecting this series to go. All the games against Las Vegas were super exciting and fun to watch, so if we get a series full of more games like that with playoff intensity on top of it? That will be something. It's been such a fun regular season, and the road through the playoffs is soooo tough, that it's impossible to say that getting knocked out would be an unexpected disappointment. But disappointment is still the word. Continue reading NHL PLAYOFFS: Game 1 – Wild @ Vegas
MIGUEL SANO got a hit!
MIGUEL SANO got a hit late in the game!
MIGUEL SANO got a hit late in the game with a runner in scoring position!
MIGUEL SANO got a hit late in the game with a runner in scoring position and it completed the Twins comeback from 3 runs down to take the lead!
MIGUEL SANO got a hit late int he game with a runner in scoring position and it completed the Twins comeback from 3 runs down to take the lead and then he went out and pitched a scoreless inning of relief in a high-leverage spot!
Man, what they say is true. Anything really is possible.
Games this week:
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Tonight is the last game of the season between Colorado and Las Vegas, the two teams at the top of the West division. Here's what's at stake:
Of course, the team that doesn't win the division gets Minnesota in the first round. Las Vegas has already clinched home ice in the first round, but Colorado needs 3 more points to ensure that they would start the first round in Denver.
Marcus Foligno
Building off my comment in last week's Whangdoodle, let's play a guessing game. If i give you a graph that shows the Wild's xG% (all situations) in every game this season (depicted as a five-game rolling average), can you spot the point in the season where Foligno broke his ankle and missed 4 weeks? (click the image to see the answer)
If you guessed game 26, you are correct. He was out for 15 games, and when he came back the xG% quickly corrected itself to climb back over 50%.
To get some sense of the importance of xG% and its correlation to Minnesota's success, we can look at the Wild's record when they control scoring chances (xG% >55%) versus when they are significantly out-chanced (xG% <45%).
| xG% | Wild Record |
|---|---|
| xG% >55% | 17-3-1 |
| 45% < xG% < 55% | 12-5 |
| xG% <45% | 6-6-4 |
Those four losses in the top category are all memorable, and with maybe one exception, could have easily gone the other way.
To pull the whole thing together, you notice that the three groups the games were sorted into are pretty close to equally populated. When we factor in Marcus Foligno's presence, we get a different distribution
| Foligno? | Low xG% | Middle xG% | High xG% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8 | 11 | 18 |
| No | 8 | 6 | 3 |
| Total | 16 | 17 | 21 |
The last fact in all of this is that the Wild managed to end up playing six of their eight games this season against the Avalanche without Marcus Foligno in the lineup. This seems particularly relevant given the playoff scenarios that are playing out this week and how likely it is that we'll be seeing another Colorado-Minnesota playoff series soon.
Current Standings:
| Rank | Team | GP | Pts | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegas | 54 | 80 | 3 (division) |
| 2 | Colorado | 53 | 76 | 3 (R1 home ice) |
| 3 | Minnesota | 54 | 75 | 0 |
| 4 | St. Louis | 53 | 57 | #4 seed clinched |
| 5 | Arizona | 56 | 52 | eliminated |
| 6 | Los Angeles | 53 | 48 | eliminated |
| 7 | San Jose | 55 | 49 | eliminated |
| 8 | Anaheim | 56 | 43 | eliminated |
I mentioned this before, but even if the Wild don't earn another standings point, they will finish the season with the highest points percentage of any Wild season in their 20-year history.
Kirill Kaprizov Corner
27 goals in 54 games. He's 8th in the NHL in goals scored. One goal every other game hasn't been accomplished by a rookie in 15 years. (Ovechkin in '05-'06, 52G in 81GP, Svatos in '05-'06, 32G in 61GP)
51 points in 54 games. Tied for 19th in the NHL in points.
We're getting down to the end of the season, so you would understand if I said I was running a little short on Kaprizov highlights... Oh wait, the folder is still full.
I'm leaving out the highlights of his assists, because he had some beautiful passes, but goodness, he scored so much this week.
Enjoy!
HE. CANT. BE. STOPPED. pic.twitter.com/ih2gNJqUnt
— Hockey Wilderness (@hockeywildernes) May 4, 2021
Out. Of. The. Air. pic.twitter.com/JpMtDS69nh
— Hockey Wilderness (@hockeywildernes) May 6, 2021
This kid is unbelievable. pic.twitter.com/hGJ5vWZtKH
— Hockey Wilderness (@hockeywildernes) May 6, 2021
KIRILL IN OT OF COURSE! WILD WIN! pic.twitter.com/U81vAfokU7
— Hockey Wilderness (@hockeywildernes) May 8, 2021
Leaderboards
| Player | G | Player | A | Player | Pts | Player | xGAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaprizov | 27 | Greenway | 25 | Kaprizov | 51 | Kaprizov | 20.0 |
| Fiala | 20 | Kaprizov | 24 | Fiala | 40 | Eriksson Ek | 14.6 |
| Eriksson Ek | 19 | Zuccarello | 24 | Zuccarello | 35 | Spurgeon | 11.4 |
| Zuccarello | 11 | Fiala | 20 | Greenway | 31 | Sturm | 9.8 |
| Foligno/Sturm/Bonino | 10 | Spurgeon | 18 | Eriksson Ek | 30 | Fiala | 8.7 |
If Kaprizov doesn't score another goal this season, he'll finish on pace for 39.5 goals in an 82 game season. So, I think we can round that to say this was a 40-goal season.
Kaprizov is closer to Connor McDavid in xGAR (25.3) than he is to Eriksson Ek. He is 3rd in the NHL in xGAR. Anyone thinking about who will finish as the runners up to McDavid for the MVP will have to at least consider Kaprizov.
Also, raise your hand if you had Eriksson Ek down for a 20-goal season? It could happen!
Kenta Maeda v. Matthew Boyd
I feel like the Twins have faced Matthew Boyd at least once a week for the past 6 years (checking b-r, and ... yep this will be his 274th career start against Minnesota). He's coming off a start cut short by injury and a skipped turn in the rotation so he hasn't pitched since April 29.
Another Sunday means another rubber match for this series. I think a series win over the Tigers is a pretty reasonable aspiration.
