I predicted a sweep last week. Sorry 'bout that.
The offense now merely looks bad instead of terrible with 3.7 runs/game in May. The defense is still terrible though.
All posts by sean
2011 Game 43: Minnesota Twins at Arizona Diamondbacks
And now begins the interleague preview.
The Twins have played the Diamondbacks three times. The most recent series was here in 2008, sweeping them. Livan out pitched Webb for the win in game 1. The Twins visited Arizona in 2005, winning the series 2-1, and again in 2004 with the same results. Their sole loss was a complete game by Randy Johnson. I guess Silva, Aaron Fultz, and Joe Roa weren't a good match against him. In 2003, the Twins lost the series 1-2, with the sole win coming from spot starter Santana. It was his final start for a month before he was permanently installed in the rotation.
Following the clear progression, I predict a sweep.
2011 Game 36: Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins
Number of teams to make the postseason since 1995 that started at 12-23: one. The previous team to do that was the Blue Jays in 1989. In 1981, the Royals made the postseason with a worse record after 35 games, but unless the players plan on striking for a third of the season, I don't think it's a good model. After that, just one more team* did it: the 1974 Pirates.
It doesn't look good my friends.
* Caveat: I only checked for the years since divisional play started.
2011 Game 30: Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox
Knuckleball pitchers may be ageless, but Wakefield's time machine finally broke. Nonetheless, I think he will have a long leash in today's game. Knowing the Twins' offense, they might not be able to score enough runs in a single inning to knock him out of the game and expose the tired bullpen. Instead, they will have time to perfect the single/walk, steal, sacrifice, sacrifice (fly) strategy.
The Red Sox used their entire bullpen for Wednesday's game, including Wakefield, for a 13 inning game in which the starter lasted 4.1 innings. Naturally, the starter in yesterday's game also lasted a mere four innings, but it was mop-up time after that and anyone important was saved for today's game. The Sox have yet to top .500 after failing two previous times. Hopefully the Twins don't notice the "Red" part and treat these Sox like their bleached brethren.
2011 Game 25: Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
Well that sucked. It does amuse me that the team most often picked to win the division is doing just as well as the Twins. I think only Detroit is doing roughly as expected, though the Royals are very quickly returning to their expected level.
This is an awful streak and it's magnified by starting the season with it. If only there was some way to look at streaks within previous, full seasons...
First, some notes about this season's streak to compare to previous miserable streaks. The Twins have scored 77 runs and given up 124 runs, which comes out to 3.2 scored versus 5.2 against.
In 2010, there was a period when the Twins didn't play particularly well in the middle of the season. Concerning, yes, but no hysterics about it. Taking a look at 2010, I note that from games 85 to 94, seven times were the Twins 9-15 over the previously played 24 games (e.g. games 62-85 the first time). They also were 8-16 once and 10-14 twice. During the 8-16 stretch, they scored 109 runs and gave up 131 runs. That's 4.5 runs/game and 5.5 runs/game respectively. In terms of wins it was worse, but the run differential is just shy of one run a game instead of two runs per games.
Let's try another year that also started poorly but ended up okay. Like 2006. Oh look! They also started 9-15 and hovered around 10-14 for quite a few consecutive 24 game stretches. That was a frustrating early 46 games. Anyway, they scored 96 runs and gave up 148 runs to start the season. And that's with a True Ace anchoring the staff. That's an even 4 runs/game scored and 6.2 runs/game given up. And it got worse! From games 3-26, those figures were 3.7 and 6.1 respectively.
Going earlier, I see in 2003, the Twins were as bad as 6-18 with similar run differentials to this season's differential. Games 72-95 for instance they were 7-17, scored 79 runs and gave up 137.
Now, I am not saying things are going to go just like 2006 and the Twins will have a historically great second half of the season or they finally put some pitcher into the rotation and he pitches quite all right. Instead, awful stretches happen during seasons that otherwise end well. Truthfully, I do not foresee any big changes like in 2003 or 2006 that will dramatically alter the team's true talent level. They could continue to suffer from injuries and finish worst in the division, it happens, but that's a worst case scenario even now and acting like it's fated to be is, well, stupid.
2011 Game 20: Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins
It's been a busy week. I think I have the core features in place now, so it's on to other things. Like how the site looks. That will have to come from someone else.
In the meantime, time for the best team in the AL to take on the near worst team in the league. Unfortunately, they aren't in the order I wanted at the beginning of the season.
The Rolling Stones – Dead Flowers
The Stones somewhere in 1970.
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UiEN8zzZe94
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This is where you voice your opinion on features and such. What makes the transition from the old place? What can be left behind? Do we start all over with BKAC? Jeff A asked if the birthday thing had run its course (I see what he’s saying, but although I almost never commented on it, I nearly always read it).
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April 16, 2011: New Beginnings
Hopefully the first of many more Cups of Coffee to come.